Cheltenham Festival
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Champion Hurdle
Champion Hurdle
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STS tell me how you will make profit on race? You have already backed Our Conor and The New One, and will back The Fly b/p 4/1 and MTOY b/p 7/2? Suppose if Our Conor wins as largest price maybe small profit depending on stakes. On earlier post you stated Cheltenham was not a gambling week? What is it then please? Good luck with future a/posts.
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All these so called wonder horses/novices - Our Conor, TNO, Jezki, MTOY and At Fishers Cross - all they have beaten are other novices/one another (granted TNO has since beaten some older horses). Most of them have shown that under pressure they have chinks in their hurdling armour. Jezki has been beaten at two festivals. MTOY had every chance in the Supreme and headed CF at the last and could not win. TNO made a bad mistake when he came under pressure in the International at the last. I agree all these horses are good and one of them may win the CH but its a big step up from novice level. I pointed out on a thread a few months back that in the last 40 years only 3 festival novice winners have won the CH the following season - that is from over 120 horses. Typically all the above were hyped up by by the media since last March and the bookies love them for it. The winner of the 2014 CH was always going to be the one who could beat HF and yet he was languishing as 4th favourite behind horses who really had proved nothing. It does not of course mean that HF will not be beaten but there was no logic to the relative odds.
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Yawn zzzz ive already done it to death stevo1 over the years i am not going to explain it again. Basically backing 10 horses in a 10 horse race at odds of 10/1 or greater and your in profit! Or betting to a total not exceeding a 100% book.
As of this years champion hdl, i have bet TNO at 5/1, i have bet OC at 8/1! IMO i need to probably also do MTOY HF and maybe one more outsider to have covered all basis. As HF sits at 4/1 right now, hes probably a bet but i will leave it till the dust settles first, prob about a week, i will only need 1 more point above what i have on TNO to have him making me the same amount of money win and place, as for MTOY, he is a little shorter than my liking so likely hood is, i am waiting till nearer the day for that bet. All depends on what i think will be race fav, its a little harder to predict this year but i am sure i will get there. Also, all my bets are always each way at 1/4 odds antepost. I almost always end up with the first three home backed having only 4-5 selections at inflated odds. Every year the bookies give money away with ridiculous offers, enhanced morning prices etc etc so even if i aint got everything covered by the day i am pretty confident i will be in a no lose position! As those offers by bookies usually revolve around the fav for each race, i don't actually have to do anything with that. I think HF was offered up at 9/4 last year, but having already got on at 11/2 i did not need to touch him again! Will always remember the year laddies went 1/2 the odds a place on the world hdl market, will never forget it, cleaned up i did! It is those small little details, with carefully selection, betting and staking its so easy! I always book holidays with the proceeds Friday afternoon after the Gold cup, the key for me is to not bet in any handicaps and leave the bumper well alone! So, there you have it, i got carried away and give you an insight into how a bookmaker ACTUALLY works and how I reverse it so as it is in my favour! |
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what a horse but lets not forget this is the flys favourite conditions. i will still be surprised if he wins in march.
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well what a boring way of gambling that is!!
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"I always book holidays with the proceeds Friday afternoon after the Gold cup"
where to? blackpool!! |
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Lol Buick nice to have some clues in how to make it pay!! Not sure if he has ever been to festival?
E/W on 1st four in betting, he got the game by the bollocks! |
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Jealousy gets no one anywhere though it is good to have opinions and views on the game! Each to their own, i just HATE losing on any thing and so make sure i simply just don't!
Any one who thinks they make money plainly betting one horse a race, or two, is lying to themselves imo! Bookies are not poor for a reason! |
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But as i said above, i do this argument about how I play the festival every year! Oh by the way, to the above poster, i am planning a trip to Brisbane Australia this year!
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Sounds a load of rubbish to me. Taking the Champion Hurdle for example - what about in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2012; when the winners came in at 16/1, 10/1, 22/1, 9/1 and 11/1 respectively. How would you have made any profit from the race by backing the market principles each way? Bear in mind this is 5 of the last 7 years so not a flash in the pan theory.
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It's called trading with a little bit of arbing here and there my friend. I am not going to start posting on here of what i had in them years for fear of being branded a after timer, i term i LOL about often! I always pick my jackpot horse and stick to it, thats the one i want to win cos it will make me the most money!
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With regard to the places this year it does depend on whether you think any of the potential outsiders will even turn up. AP and UDC have to be only 50/50 at best to actually make it to the big dance this year especially given trainer and ownership of Annie Power. There is any obvious lurker which hasn't been thrashed by one of the market principles excluding those two horses. Might be an 8/9 runner CH this year, I think this is why NTD is thinking of a pacemaker.
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Oops...of course Fly will be 10. Sorry. But still...too old.
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But i guess you have just given me permission to post what i had in them years,
2013, taken from my file copy/pasted CHAMP HDL WINNER HURRICANE FLY £*** E/W @ 11/2 - coral, Blackpool SECOND ROCK ON RUBY £***E/W @ 10/1 THIRD COUNTRYWIDE FLAME £*** E/W @ 16/1 ladbrokes 1/4 nrnb ZARKANDAR £*** E/W @ 6/1 & £** e/w @ 6/1 hills & £***e/w @ 5/1 skybet online & £*** e/w @ 4/1 nrnb betfred online GRANDOUET £*** E/W @ 6/1 & £*** e/w @ 6/1 CINDERS & ASHES £**E/W @ 20/1 - coral, Blackpool BINOCULAR £**E/W @ 25/1 Profit was approx 3 points, placed no lay bets on this race hence the number of bets placed at cramped odds. My jackpot horse last year was obviously Zarkandar. I always file all of my bets for anything i play at and my main goal is always profit! Admittedly it does not always work out, but it does often enough! As i said above, it is just being a bookmaker, and reversing it! My 2012 book was this: CHAMPION HURDLE Rock on Ruby £*** e.w 10/1 nrnb - WINNER £*** Hurricane Fly £***win 9/4 Zarkander £***e.w 8/1 - lads nrnb + £* e.w 8/1 nrnb Binocular £*** e.w 10/1 Oscars Well £*** e.w 25/1 - corals + £* e.w 16/1 - lads +£**e.w 16/1-nrnb -£*** That year was a small loss but the preceding races made up for that! My jackpot horse did not run in the Champ hdl of 2012, that horse ran in that years Arkle! Again, if i told you i would be after timing as you lot all call it. So you see, by me sharing with you a couple of my files from the champ hdl, it is easy to trade a few runners and make profits. Just as traders and bookmakers do! |
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I am with you there fallen angel, i think it will be less than 10 runner affair too. The odds are very cramped at this time of year too, something which is very unusual and making it a lot harder to place bets. I might end up looking at the other races for profit and just keeping hold of what i already have so as not to go over broke on the race, unless something silly happens between now and March.
I will however and always do take advantage of all the offers our bookie friends throw at us punters morning of 11 March too! Of the outsiders at the moment i am interested very much in Un de Sceux but will it turn up? At 12/1 there abouts if when confirmed for the race would be a nice price but i doubt he would be that price once confirmed, though i see him as a potential pricewise pick morning of the race so might be worth waiting on him! |
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what does a point equate to in the world of seathestars?
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What does a point equate to in the world of any body?
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The fact is, i make a profit, my money comes from bookies, i re invest it with bookies, i use profits once a year to go on holidays. I work damn hard at my study and follow the betfair markets religiously. I will not post about this subject again! I successfully stay under the radar thus not having accounts restricted etc, i am not totally sure why this is, probably more to do with 99% of all my bets are placed within differing shops, not net or mobile.
Now if you want to get back to the debate of what will win this race, feel free, but please do not mock my method of trading again. It works for me, it might not be your cup of tea however. I still get thrills of winning if that be your next question. I just HATE losing more than anything in the world! |
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Have you ever been to Festival STS? Go there instead of Brisbane you will love it! Good luck with your a/posts.
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Brisbane or the Festival?
Brisbane: Gold Coast, beautiful weather, fantastic scenery and great people. Festival: Cold and windy, Over crowded, hard to get a beer or food, p1ssed up groups of fools who have no interest in racing. Your choice STS ? |
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Willie Mullins believes that there's a good deal more to come this season from Ryanair Hurdle winner Hurricane Fly.
The nine year old recorded an 18th top level success at Leopardstown, beating young pretenders Jezki and Our Conor and Mullins revealed that he has taken the race in his stride. "He seems fine. He lost a bit of weight but he's fine, eating and doing everything right," revealed the Closutton handler. "It was a very taxing race and obviously Jezki got into trouble but Our Conor had a very clear run and our fellow just had way more tactical speed than the two of them yesterday and we know he stays. I'm very happy with the position anyway." Hurricane Fly performed to a mark of 170, 5lb below his best, according to British Horseracing Authority handicapper Phil Smith, but Mullins believes that the son of Montjeu has more improvement than that left in the locker. "There's easily that left to work on. I've been saying that this fellow is stronger than he ever was before, it's extraordinary for a horse his age but knowing what we've been doing with him and I think there's plenty left. "I've been saying that all along and I'm happy with that," he added. Hurricane Fly is now set to return to Leopardstown later this month in an attempt to win a fourth BHP Insurance Irish Champion Hurdle before heading to Cheltenham for the Stan James Champion Hurdle in March. |
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Be honest I doubt anyone on this forum makes money backing horses including Sea The Stars - his approach is fine in theory (it's basic bookmaking!!) but I don't see it working consistently in practice. I reckon everyone on the Antepost forum is in this for the enjoyment of it - the discussion, the debate, the opinions, etc. Nothing wrong with that. That's why most people on this thread have thousands of posts to their name.
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seathestars i seem to remember...thought i read you saying you were very much a small stakes punter a couple of years ago?? but bet a lot of horses am i correct? or do i need to dig the thread out???
or is that the other seathestars?? |
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It's shaping up to be a memorable race but what odds the big 5 all turn up in March?
Bound to be at least one that'll suffer some kind of setback somewhere along the way. |
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Did Ruby ever explain why he had to shake up Hurricane Fly down the back straight last year? At one point of last year's race, he definitely looked in big trouble. If that happens again, will he get away with it in this company with all the talk of the pacemakers and all that? Definitely a worry for me plus I still maintain Cheltenham is not Hurricane Fly's track. I think he's won 2 Champion Hurdles in spite of it. He's always been way better at Punchestown. And at Leopardstown too. Lastly, the potential good ground might not be in Hurricane Fly's favour, not so much that it'll inconvenience him but it'll bring more improvement out of others than it will him.
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Ruby explain what?He was outpaced.There is no doubt in my mind that HF has a preference for soft ground and people can point to races like his victory in this against Peddlers Cross,but people that understand racing relise that horses can win despite of conditions not being in his favour.
On good ground,Id be firmly against the FLY.Two things in his favour tho-the increasing regularity of over-watering on the first day,his hurdling technique is superior to the challengers. |
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Fair enough, I wasn't sure that HF being outpaced was the accepted opinion. Surely a massive negative with the horse being a year older too. I'd agree on good ground, I'd also be opposing Hurricane Fly.
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Well that would be my view of the race but that could be mitigated by the fact that the pace set on ROR was too strong.
Another point is will the ground ever be good on the opening day of the festival??,it seems now to be be always watered to be at least on the soft side of good. |
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Rock on Ruby going too quick,not surprising HF got slightly outpaced,but it weren't major and he was soon back on the bridle.
As for this season,im still waiting for another horse to prove as good as HF. Maybe that will happen in March,but nothing ive seen so far suggests that happening. |
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No direct link between the form in the UK and Ireland. People entitled to think TNO and MTOY will improve past Hurricane Fly, or indeed already have. Excuses already being made for the beaten 2 yesterday as well. I think the day something proves to be better than HF will be at Cheltenham. I agree getting outpaced wasn't major at the time but it's just one other reason why it'd make me question him going into this year's race.
A remarkable horse though. 16/17 in G1s in Ireland, 2/3 in the UK. That alone is why he has so many supporters. DJ - I think the more the ground tends towards the good, the more good it'll do the younger brigade. |
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The English 2M Hurdling division is paper-thin with quality at the top, that's why TNO and MTOY can make hay in trials races.
Also that's why Rock on Ruby and Zarkandar have freely run and won a number of the better races in the last 3 seasons. Hurricane Fly has dominated for even longer in Ireland, and even with new challengers he looks equally dominant. His overall form is better than all of the others, so he should be favourite. Unlikely that English and Irish Form will be tested vs each other until the big event on 11th March, and the combination of Hurricane Fly ridden by Ruby Walsh on GS/Soft ground is a compelling case to register a third win, and this time the Irish will be betting even bigger on him, and cheering even louder - bound to go off favourite. |
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Surely last years Supreme and Aintree hurdles gives us a connection between UK and Irish form.
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harry callaghan 30 Dec 13 18:37 Joined: 10 Nov 07 | Topic/replies: 2,154 | Blogger: harry callaghan's blog
seathestars i seem to remember...thought i read you saying you were very much a small stakes punter a couple of years ago?? but bet a lot of horses am i correct? or do i need to dig the thread out??? No no, your quite right, it is me the same STS, but as the seasons have progressed i have dramatically increased my stakes. In fact i am currently staking double what i was in 2012 though i will always iterate them to be small in regards to posters on here. A £25 each way bet is about my average now a days as opposed to £10 each max in 2012. I am very much looking forwards to my little trip away to Brisbane to stay with my little sister, something that has been booked for months. Cheltenham will give me good bit of spends! Did you honestly believe that Chelters week was going to allow me to book and go? LOL, i might be able to reverse what bookmakers do, but i aint a bookmaker pmsl |
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I see that Pricewise is doing his Ante Post pick for the race on Tuesday. Looking at the race it is difficult to see where the value is as the 5 that are set for the race barring injury are under 10-1. I guess he will go for Un De Seaux. I'm a big fan of TNO but HF will be very hard to beat. Wish Nicholls would commit Ptit Zig to it as I think his Ascot 2nd was really good
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I don't think the odds will be a bar to Segal's selection - wasn't Al Ferof 6/1 as his King George tip?
Can't see him doing any of the 3 shorties though so guess it will be one of Jezki, Our Conor or Annie Power (preference for the latter NRNB). |
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i think segal will go for jezki or our conor. a bit obvious i suppose as they are the most creditable challengers at bigger prices than the "big" 3. i really like annie power but just cant see her being speedy enough. UDS is he hard one to weigh up. it would be a total guess for segal to choose him but i suppose your getting a fair price about him.
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surely as a tipster he has to pick the likely winner....
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clues in the name isnt it?
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Pricewise
Melodic Rendezvous  |
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well the likely winner is TNO or the fly, I suppose there is a tiny bit of value in jezki e/w, but no value at all in the tent
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