Cheltenham Festival
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Champion Hurdle
Champion Hurdle
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Our Conor at 10-1 for me is a over reaction from Stan. You could tell he just blew up, and the monster drift 5 minutes before showed that. Only negative really not a fan of the jockey
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I appreciate that Duffy and it is a fair point. However, I doubt there will be much between Jezski and Hurricane Fly in March. I'd say the Fly had the run of the race today and he is brilliant, but to me it will be a surprise if he wins in March. I prefer TNO, but it would not surprise me if MTOY wins. All to play for though.
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The Fly is brilliant of course and still is, but I just don't think he's quite the same, he's just starting to not travel as well through his races these days, his class still gets him there but it remains to be seen if he can do it again....incredible horse though.....and finally the tag of easy grade 1's in ireland is being put to bed.
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Making excuses for beaten horses is a good way to the poor house. Jezki didn't have to toe to get McCoy out of trouble and was beaten by the better horse on the day in my view.
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there could be four in a line jumping the last,gonna be the best race at cheltenham as usual,still hoping jezki will be at least placed and now after looking at these races over the past few days i think jezki will be 2nd or 3rd !
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It's gearing up to be a cracking Champion Hurdle this season. It's hard to split the top three in the market imo. I wouldn't completely write off either of the two beaten horses today, who had excuses for different reasons. I'm currently in the MTOY camp, but I'm certainly not nailing my colours to the mast just yet!
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i think if twiston davies holds on to the last 100 yards and lets the new one go that will be the winner !
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I will be backing about 4 stevo, guarantee myself a profit in the race as i always like to do, see the Cheltenham festival for me is not a gambling week, more a week where i see the fruits of my labour (homework study and careful antepost staking over the winter) pay off!
To my eye, the fly will take a lot of beating, yes but one thing that gets me still is his age, he will be rising 11 come March the 11th and that is still a negative. Though his current price does reflect this and it will take a brave one to back against him. I already have TNO in my book at 5/1, this gives me room to back another 3 at cramped odds (the books really do have a strangle hold on this market so early on don't they?) and as i can only see 3 other dangers, them will be the 3 i will be punting at the right price! (MTOY and the Fly, already on Our Conor at 8s!) Seeing as likely race fav will now be the fly, i will be getting on in January and waiting till nearer the day for others. My take on todays race was that Jezki was found wanting and will again come March 11th, race fit if he was good enough to get near the fly, today would have been the day as the fly has always improved as the season has progressed and i see no reason why that should not happen again. Our Conor looked turning for home as if he was about to serve it up, and blew up jumping the last, he will come on for the run. The 4 i am most interested in come March 11th at this stage are HF - age  ? Our Conor - age ? TNO and MTOYUn De Sceauz would be interesting, if aimed at the race, 12/1 would be about right. |
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There's no doubt that Sam Twiston Davies is a liability on The New One but he is still the horse to beat imo.
However I was taken with Our Conor today and hoped he may have drifted a bit more than he has. Still no bet for me so far as there has been little to be gained by playing antepost this year. |
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And even if i am wrong about what will be race fav, i will get out of jail on the morning of the 11th March, bookies do seem to love to give money away in them big races don't they!
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I hope McCoy decides to ride MTOY in the Champion.
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I think he will,but I bet he wishes he could ride Hfly.
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Autocue
29 Dec 13 15:08 I hope McCoy decides to ride MTOY in the Champion. Unless MYOY gets beat or injured in the meantime that is an absolute certainty. I just hope Barry Geraghty gets the gig on Jezki. |
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i hope geraghty rides jezki aswell,what a race !
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The horse a pacemaker will help the most I think is MTOY. Whether he can quicken up the hill is another question altogether, but be seems like a horse which could travel on the bridle at a suicide pace.
I can see a similar situation to the supreme, where coming round the corner he's travelling by far the best, and will depend on whether he can accelerate away up the hill. He seems to be a bit bigger and stronger than last year. It's doing to be a fascinating race to watch |
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Well,you can have yer young pretenders,make excuses for them getting beat,go on about how old HF is etc etc etc, but until a horse actually looks like beating Hfly then he remains the one to beat,and as ive said a few times before he should be fav,and to be honest from what ive seen since last March I find it a tad insulting to the horse that he aint fav.
Ive been waiting and waiting to back him and knowing how people have been touting the pretenders I knew he would not go shorter till today,and almost took 6 this morning,but thanks to wh!ll I got 10!! Now I can sit back and relax,and have a saver on what I think will the biggest danger on the day.... what the heck I might even back 2!! Go on the Fly!!!!!!! |
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MTOY is just like Binocular - best horse but outstayed / outbattled in the Supreme, will be the same story in his first Champion Hurdle imo, and will then win it the following season.
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I'm glad to hear that twister is running a pacemaker...the faster the better and may the best horse win, all the leading contenders have there plus points and negatives, going to be a fantastic race.
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I think it will be a different story at Cheltenham. When you look at the replay Jezki did very well to finish so close and has age on his side. I would like to see Geraghty on board. Danny Mullins made a senior jockey look like an idiot today so he's clearly not as poor as some would have you believe though Our Conor will be 3lb worse off in March and I don't rate his chances of reversing the form.
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I haven't had a bet in the race and probably won't now. HF almost certainly would have won today had Jezki not been boxed but it would have been much closer. Not enough to choose between Jezki, Our Connor, MTOY or TNO to play the margins (assuming they all get there!)
It should be quite a spectacle. |
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Our Conor has no chance of winning the Champion Hurdle. End of
Jezki's got no chance either. |
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Who you fancy Ballydoyle?
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I'm on The new one and my tent both at 7-1 and confident they will be 1-2
Our conor should run in the county hurdle |
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Can't see Jezki winning - apart from being boxed in, his hurdling let him down today, just as in the supreme
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The New One would murder Jezki up that hill and Tent already proven he's sorted same horse. Fly will be 11yo in March and too old.
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I'm on the same Bally. 8s TNO after the Neptune last year and a bit of MTOY. Had some 10s Our Conor today cos I thought it was a over reaction. But TNO and MTOY my main 2
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Our Conor has no chance sj.
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I'm not one for giving it "well he might and he could"...in this profession its he will or he won't and I say Our Conor beat nothing in Triumph and has been found out today.
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That s fair enough mate, I think he'll come on a ton for today
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Might well do but still won't be good enough
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Ballydoyle
29 Dec 13 18:49 Joined: 23 Feb 02 | Topic/replies: 1,707 | Blogger: Ballydoyle's blog The New One would murder Jezki up that hill and Tent already proven he's sorted same horse. Fly will be 11yo in March and too old. Will he really be 11? Thought he'd be a ten year old (which admittedly is still pushing it a bit). |
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Born April 2004.
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Yeah, he'll be 10, which is old for a Championship race, but given what an incredible horse he has been, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him win despite that.
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Yep 10
 Was taken with OC today. Thought he travelled very powerfully till blowing up. First race with the big boys, I'm sure connections will be delighted. 10-1 a civil price. |
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I agree with that brandy. He can be expected to have needed the run. The current price seems about right. If he impresses next time out, he may be worth considering as a player again.
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I think with a bit of thought, you could have a nice overall book for this race with some of the prices.
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I was under the impression that he had a flat run 6 weeks ago.....?
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Correct and wont be good enough to win Champion Hurdle imo.
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Correct, OC did have a flat run, but it was almost fully 3 months ago and he has had some problems since, the reason why we have not seen him. It was a bold move by connections to run him against HF and Jezki today imo, he came round that bend and i for one as a backer today did think there was still a chance at that point, but as soon as jockey asked him as they hit the straight he seemed to blow up badly! I am on at 8/1 from last March, and am still sceptical i have a good bet. He would have needed it today and showed up pretty well. Not saying he can beat the fly mind, but fully expect him to be able to reverse placings with Jezki next time they meet!
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10 weeks ago plus like seathestars points out he has had niggles so must have missed work.
I'm not saying he is the winner, just with age on his side he should be the one with plenty of improvement, and at 10-1 is value. |