Segal does like his total guesses for Cheltenham

Not if you have already backed it,but if you are waiting to back it for some reason,then it matters.
The sheep normally follow!!

Segal will pick one of Jezki, Our Conor, Annie Power (nrnb), UDS and Melodic Rendevous. I reckon he'll tip Jezki. Prior to his defeat to the Fly, Segal tipped him up for the race and had some good words to say about him. He got trapped in at Leopardstown and his chance was taken away, but stayed on well afterwards. I doubt he'd have won with a clear run personally, but I reckon Segal will take the chance on him.

I was thinking that plugging this by the racing post might be a bit of a mistake. Its much too late in the day for an ante-post pick on the CH, some of the other big championship races still have a lot of uncertainty around them but not this race. If he picks UDS or AP then he has to worry they wont run and will be taking a much shorter prices with one of the money back firms. If he picks Jezki he will have to find a reason for him turning the form round. The editors might worry they are trying to find value where there is none. Personally If he picked HF i might have some respect as there is still some 7/2 around, if the others take up other options it would still be value.

If he picks Melodic the column would be a joke.

If he picks Melodic the column would be a joke.

Already is man.

I have nothing against the column per say. He did well last season and to be fair his P&L has improved over time. What I do have an issue with is labbeling something value at 10/1 just because its a bigger price with no justification for the selection to turn the form round. I can see his hand being forced now too much time has passed. The RP are aware that the ante-post prices move pretty quickly now a days, why not do an ante-post selection before the Irish / UK Christmas hurdles or revisit a selection made in October.

There are lots of markets that are wide open, why not take an Arkle selection rather than the champion, much more interesting for a two page special.

I know for a fact they all got beat the season before Ballydoyle, having backed them all since the season before that he had 2 winners from his antepost selections and i did not follow only to back them on the day to find out he had tipped them at massive odds.

2 seasons of ducks with antepost at the festival i would have to say he was due a good one.

He does find winners day of the races however!

love him or hate him tom segal  is undeniably an excellent tipster especially in big field handicaps and in those races his record speaks for itself .

Done a bit of analysis from last seasons fest and interesting to see what you all make of it.

It's a little basic but I have timed MTOY, HF and TNO from the 2nd last and last to the line, using the moment the front feet hit the deck as a starting point.

MTOY
2nd to the Line - 38.45s
Last to the Line - 13.26s

HF
2nd to the Line - 42.80s
Last to the Line - 15.52s

TNO
2nd to the Line - 38.10s
Last to the Line - 13.08s

Like I've said before, I'm a massive HF fan and will cover him no matter what.

What I did find interesting from watching back the races is that both HF and TNO got racing pretty much straight after the 2nd, or at least coming round the corner, whereas McCoy hardly moved on MTOY until right before the last - I'm assuming this is because he was so confident and he has already said that he thought him to be a banker.

MTOY actually went from the last to the line in almost the same time as TNO and whilst most have said it was an electric turn of foot from TNO, most said MTOY didn't stay or was out-battled. I think that CF was just simply quicker up the run in than all of them, having done it in about 13.07s.

With MTOY now being supposedly bigger and stronger than last year, and if he settles, I wonder if McCoy would now be more inclined to go for him sooner. The Xmas Hurdle proves that he finds for pressure and the paddock judge said in the Weekender that Henderson had left a decent bit to work on, whereas TNO was as fit as he could be.

I'm beginning to think MTOY could be the one but interested to hear other thoughts and interpretations of the times.

If he weren't to have a prep run then apart from a number of significant trends he'd have to overcome, 2 things worry me about TNO

1. His ability to clout a hurdle when under pressure
2. His jockey. I really like Sam and think he's going to be around at the too level for a long time but you can see how nervous he his with this horse. Walsh and McCoy might end up eating him for breakfast this year

We can talk about times all day long but Tent has to prove he can get up that hill. Only won the other day cos TNO battered the last.

3/4 years ago...recent years you wonder whether the man has got a form book. I'm sure someone put up on another thread that he has had 30 odd losers in a row which is, for lack of a better phrase, pure piish

sometimes he will pick 2 or 3 horses for a race espesh if it is antepost is that factored in?

hbut from what I remember he may have had runs with 30 odd losers on the domestic racing ,but from memory his last winners were on boxing day 2 winners from 2 bets preceded by a 16/1 winner willows saviour . but ante post tips as I say no stats but I think you would show a  very healthy profit just backing his festival ap tips ,as I said before not an average tipster ,the pricewise extra I think he has to put one or 2 up but I don't think he is in his comfort zone and the bread and butter racing doesn't ply to his strengths .

only flemenstar was nrfb he did pick solwhit at 16-1 but some of those picks were also each way so +3 with a 1 point free bet

isn't the point though to try and tip the winner????

I suppose he,s ok if your deaf and blind and need help but not for me

Anyway back to the thread subject......anyone also fancy Un De Sceaux could spring a surprise??

Bit unfair is it?he gets paid to do it...I'll tell you what...you stick segals selections up on stevo1s thread against mine and see what we have

I've said on this thread back at the start that UDS was easily the most interesting of all the bigger priced horses for the race for me, not based on any in depth form of course as there is none, but just on limited visual impression of him, I think that over time he'll end up being higher rated than AP, just a hunch.

That's better.

Whats so funny??