Cheltenham Festival
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Arkle 2014
Arkle 2014
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TDS upped in trip next time jonjo says.
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Yep, my Arkle poke down the sh1tter, unless it comes up proper Soft ground.
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Anyone hanging their hat on him making a stand and insisting Felix Yonger runs here is barmy imo
Barnesy, Not sure anyone is backing FY in the hope that happens,well I aint anyway. For me its all about FY proving hes got the credentials to take his place in the race,and at the moment imo hes doing as well as is possible in proving that.If he has satisfied his owner hes done that when it comes to D-day,then I would then expect him to have his say as an owner should,if he feels the need to. If by then his trainer and/or jockey tell him hes no chance in the Arkle then I am sure he will agree,as it will be clear to everyone anyway. |
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Another contender enters the picture, and a Champion Hurdle winner at that.
That's put the Cat amongst the pigeons. |
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Agree Bud, Can only improve from today. 1st and 2nd in last 2 Champion Hurdles tells me he's the quickest horse if he can jump. Don't understand the price 16/1, so I've had some NRFB Victors. 5 x bigger than Champagne Fever. CF might win but he certainly aint no value.
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yeah budd just backed him for the arkle and 16s is way too big imo ,bred for fences can race prominently and has speed and stamina loves chelt ticks boxes !
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Yep, that's a good value bet mate, had some as well.
Thought he jumped ok, hit the top of one,but overall quiet happy with that. He stays further which is good, bit surprised he aint a bit shorter in the betting to be honest.  |
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if rock on ruby was trained by mullins hendo or pumkin would he be 16s ? not on your nelly !
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As a champion hurdler he is over priced at 16s but has a few trends to overcome.
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Seems to be an afterthought going chasing this far into the season?
I can never understand why there's such a desire to switch these top class hurdlers to fences when it looks like one or two are going to get the better of them. Rock On Ruby 1st and 2nd in the last 2 Champion Hurdles. Surely plenty of races there to be won with that horse over the smaller obstacles. I guess it really is about having a winner at the Festival for some owners. |
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He did jump well today and the Feheily said the ground was far to soft for him after the race but he has beaten nothing thus far so it is hard to gauge how good he still is. That said, at least TNO won again at the weekend.
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Well the bet is about value,and compared to the price of CF,he certainly is value!!
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Completely agree that he is the value. 16/1 for the best hurdler in the race will do for me. Might end up not being the best chaser but 16/1 is well worth the risk IMO.
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ROR certainly adds some zest to proceedings
CF was meant to go over a fence, whereas ROR has come this route through circumstance, ROR is good each way value but I am always looking to back the winner so CF is still the winner in my eyes as I see it, but might have a little saver just in case |
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Do not agree SYT. He was woeful on his reappearance and they obviously feel he can not compete over the smaller obstacles any more. Maybe a switch to fences will bring a few more fun days for connections. He owes them nothing.
As far as the Arkle goes I could not have him on my mind what ever the price. But the festival is not everything and there could be a couple of small prizes he could snaffle. |
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BOTR I'd say your writing Rock On Ruby off far too soon. Time will tell but judging horses on first runs of the season is very dangerous IMO.
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Maybe Shockster, but I'm writing him off regards the Arkle because I'd rather back a horse on an upward curve who was 7 or younger come March.
If they thought he was still as good as he was he would not have been switched codes mid season. Imo |
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I'd agree that they don't think they can win another Champion, but don't think any in the Arkle could including CF. I think they switched more because they realise that the new brigade of hurdlers are too fast and didn't expect The New One to beat him so easily. Maybe h
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Maybe RoR hasn't regressed just The New One is much better than the lot of the old established horses.
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Well we know hes (much) better than Jumps Road!
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Just watched CF's fences debut back and I can't see anyway at all they'll do anything other than drop him and keep him at 2m this season. He went a really good click, jumped fantastically and the only real mistake he made was 2 out when he looked to be tiring. He's definitely exuberant and my opinion is that he wants a flat out 2m.
I know front runners have a bad record in the arkle but I reckon ruby will just bang him out and let rip - if his jumping holds up then good luck to anyone who tries so hang onto his coat tails |
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Well last season ROR was 2nd in the CH - 16/1
CF Won the supreme - 3/1 This season they have both had 1 chase both winning comfortably. Not sure how good ROR opponent is but I would think hes miles away from an Arkle, but at least that was 2m. CF beat a stayer over 2 and a halfm, I would think that horse is miles away from an Arkle as well. No doubt where the value is, and also those taking the short odds on the fav don't even know if CF is as good a horse as ROR!! Accept that those backing ROR don't know either, but at least they are getting odds to find out!!! Anyway, whatever, ROR does add some spice to the race, and that can only be a good thing. |
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Also I think it should be noted that ROR best performance was when he won the CHurdle tracking a fast pace(overturn)which imo he needs to produce his best and did not have that last season behind Hfly, when he had to make his own running. Not sure hes really had that since either.
This seasons Arkle looks like having horses like Cfever and Defy logic, and ROR should relish that. |
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Budd you're tempting me to have more on.
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I recognize the quality of ROR but I hate the fact that he's chasing as an after-thought to them realizing that the hurdles route is no good now, I would have been wanting to hear from them during the past few months something along the lines of....
We realize this horse is entitled to continue hurdling but we just can't wait to get him over fences, he has schooled and appears to have taken to fences brilliantly, we're very much looking forward to an attempt at the arkle next march. Instead, even in a year where it looks very much that the CH field could be the strongest for many years, they still had that route as his primary route.....why? |
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On a side issue....how crazy is it that if they both stopped now until next season Grandouet would still be a novice despite contesting a proper good race and ROR wouldn't be!!
I think there's something to be said to throwing them straight in the deep end, it's working out for hinterland this year too, the stroll round at 1/10 achieves nothing more than restricting the horse. They'd have been better off with ROR in keeping him off the track and give him extensive schooling at home before finally pitching him in a proper good race in february time, if he wins he's an arkle contender, if he runs a good race but gets beat then he's still an arkle contender but also still a novice for next year and if he gets hammered, well,again he's got another year as a novice to learn more. |
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I know stats are to be broken, and I'm not sure how many have tried, but no horse over the age of 8 had won a novice festival chase since something like 1990
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Youre right in a way Duffy in that some of these non competitive races are of little use but in RORs case by Cheltenham 2015 he would be nearly as old as myself. Earlier I said he was overpriced at 16s but that is quite different from saying he is the most likely winner. I dont believe any horses won the Arkle after three seasons of hurdling.
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why would they want to save a horses novice status until next year when he would be 9/10??
hinterland is a young horse, so preserving his novice status is wise and something nicholls has done for years when possible experience is what ROR needs so nothing wrong with starting small and not putting him on the floor in a better race, also bonus for winning at plumpton and festival... |
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yep 60k bonus not to be sniffed at!
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wonder how many have attempted after 3 seasons hurdling ?
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Looks like Harry Fry knew what he was doing. This is what makes Henderson look daft when he says there are no races for good horses.
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Foyle it would take a lot of midnight oil to determine that - say for the last 40 years.
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Fair enough, and in truth he may well be onto hiding already at this age.
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yeah arkle too much for me ,how old was sizing Europe when he won the arkle ?
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Ruby from sportinglife
"I really like Champagne Fever. I think he's a very good horse. I think he has the pace to win at two (miles), like all good horses, but I wouldn't be worried about him getting four if he had to. Good horses have to have pace, staying horses have to have pace." 4 races as an option then!!  |
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grandouet is attempting it after 3 seasons hurdling
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Sizing Europe was an 8yo and had three seasons hurdling.
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ROR didn't have his first hurdle race until 2 days before he was 6. So unlikely he was going chasing much sooner as was 2nd in his novice hurdle at the following festival. Won the Champion the year after and almost retained it in 2nd last March. I'd say his credentials are everything CF's are. 3 festivals and not out of the first 2 in any of them and a champion hurdle win! Someone tell me 16/1 is not a great value bet. Now I've convinced myself to have some more on.
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I'd just want to know why they didn't start with him at the start of this season, he could have had 3 chases by the turn of the year, he's going to have his 2nd at the end of january!
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