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Arkle 2014
Arkle 2014
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Yes Tory I know and if CF comes out and wins this Grade 1 from top opposition he will have earned the right to be top dog at this stage. If he gets beat, who knows.
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CF could scare everything off. What are the other 2mile novice chasers in Ireland this season that are NOT trained by Mullins?
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NO. HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR
0 14-115 Art Of Logistics25 5 11-12 D T Hughes — 123 140 0 113-1 Ballycasey32 6 11-12 W P Mullins — 109 146 0 1462-1 Blood Cotil221 4 11-1 W P Mullins — — — 0 3213-1 Bright New Dawn18 6 11-12 D T Hughes — 103 139 0 292-21 Caid Du Berlais20 4 11-1 Paul Nicholls — 90 145 0 3113-1 Champagne Fever40 6 11-12 W P Mullins — 109 144 0 122-12 Defy Logic39 6 11-12 Paul Nolan — 138 154 0 23-121 Don Cossack25 6 11-12 Gordon Elliott — 129 154 0 25/111 Felix Yonger19 7 11-12 W P Mullins — 133 165 0 1213-3 Ned Buntline32 5 11-12 Noel Meade — 99 138 0 186-13 Road To Riches25 6 11-12 Noel Meade — 125 150 0 18-114 Shrapnel39 7 11-12 Gordon Elliott — 104 142 0 33-114 Sizing Rio25 5 11-12 Henry De Bromhead — 118 150 0 116-F6 Some Tikket26 6 11-12 D T Hughes — 95 134 0 312-83 Ted Veale39 6 11-12 A J Martin — 120 138 0 031-13 The Paparrazi Kid19 6 11-12 W P Mullins — 100 139 0 24-12 Trifolium19 6 11-12 C Byrnes — 116 149 Yes Sint it will be a small field. Mullins will have CF and a couple of 2nd strings and maybe Defy Logic, Trifolium, Ted Veale, Art of Logistics and Nicholls may run Caid Du Berlais if anything else comes over. |
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I can see it now Shockster. With a clear round he should beat those if 2miles is his trip over fences. Trifolium & Defy Logic have both been put in their place by stablemate Felix Yonger, so the distances beaten, presuming CF does win, will be interesting. Ned Buntline has been beaten by Ballycasey who is expected to be 3mile horse (fav for the RSA) so again you'd would expect CF to beat him further than a stayer would. Then the rest of them are 20f+ horses, with the possible exception of Road To Riches who actually quickened on his chase debut to beat Fox Rock who has won since. He would be the interesting one for me definitely if he runs.
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Bino retired!
 Always loved that horse and just had the faintest hope he might have taken to fences and done the unthinkable in March. |
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Defy Logic will probably be the main opposition to Champagne Fever at Christmas. His defeat to Felix Yonger doesn't look so bad now after Felix's Navan demolition, and he was blowing very hard after that defeat. I think there's more to come from him but there'll probably need to be to beat Champagne Fever.
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shockster
10 Dec 13 15:22 Yes Tory I know and if CF comes out and wins this Grade 1 from top opposition he will have earned the right to be top dog at this stage. If he gets beat, who knows That's the thing for me, he has not earned the right yet,hes won one chase over 2m4 beating a stayer in 2nd place. If he smashes Defy Logic like FY did,or shows the speed over fences required then fair enough,until then for me hes behind FY cos FY has shown he can do it in 2m chases. I would have no problem accepting FY in the Jewson should CF prove the better 2 mile chaser,its just another antepost gamble going,as does happen. Walsh can say what he likes,but until the horse shows us, then I can believe what my eyes have told me thus far. Fair enough imo. |
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A thought. Given the "will he won't he" between CF and FY, does anyone else out there believe DEFY LOGIC is a great EW bet for The Arkle @ 25/1 ? Reckon he is a cert to run in the race and in fairness when he was beat by FY they both ran a great race at a cracking pace and the winning distance was not so great it could not be reversed under different circumstances and they both left a decent bunch a long long way behind them. I am still keen on DEFY LOGIC but need to check my sanity. Thoughts ?
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yeh I like him still,and hes certainly a 2miler.
His next race will probably tell us more about his chances. |
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Not overly keen on horses that run hooded in any class never mind a championship race. I do hope he runs at Leopardstown on Boxing Day though as he will almost certainly lead....assuming Ruby thinks he is going fast enough!
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More like Ruby shouting "ffs slow down"
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Be careful thinking Defy Logic is a certain starter in the Arkle. I'd have thought so also, but he is entered along with Champagne Fever and Felix Yonger plus plenty of others in the Grade 1 Topaz Novice Chase over 3m at Leops on 29th Dec. If you had no intention or thought about the distance then why enter?
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Nooooooooooooo……..too hard. Cant even contemplate that data. Defy Logic in first two every race and never been beyond 20f. Cant cope with a 3m option. Just no……..
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I agree Billy, but why spend money on the entry? Why would you??????
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shockster - understand your point but just can't cope with that factoring in my thinking……I have too many 3m options already with DL in the equation.
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with = without…..sorry.
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hayling
as much as i think defy logic run style says arkle i was quite taken by how he was coming back at the line against FY...it wouldn't surprise me if he stepped up in trip, on the other hand though, he might be better going left handed imo so lets hope he turns up against champagne...we will then know what champagne is made of as defy logic for me is the good novice yard stick in ireland at the moment...if he wins the 25 will look big as will the 14 still on offer on FY |
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I can understand CF being entered in a 3m chase,he looks a stayer in the making to me.
Felix Yonger and Defy logic going 3m defies logic. |
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All those horses are entered in a 2m race as well!!
All very strange, sometimes think its all done to confuse us!! |
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u wudn't b2 hard 2 confuse
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harry c - I am with you.Thinking much the same. I don't think there is a lot between Defy Logic and Felix Younger over 2m and a few changes in conditions/distance/direction/fitness would easily see a reverse in their finish. If Defy Logic and CF face off this weekend then hopefully that will be a great indicator on plans for each. It is great sport though isn't it.
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Cheers Dec,and you are right!!
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no baw.. answer i usually get 'YOUR NOT OFTEN RIGHT AND YOUR WRONG AGAIN' so hope for me yet..anyway's keep posting,don't post alot meself but like to read them even the funny 1's
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Defy Logic wears a hood because he is a keen sort therefore no chance of him going 3 miles, imo.
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I put CF above FY in the 2 mile division primarily because although FY has beaten the better fields so far I am of the opinion that whilst discussing this privately I have the suspicion that mullins and walsh fall about laughing at the notion of FY being the better horse, just from what they know about the horses...all the soundbytes that they give out support this although delivered in a far more subtle way.
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No worries,i prefer to use my eyes.
Ive always done that, and found many times to my cost in the past that trying to decipher comments from trainers and jockeys and listening too much to them has not served me that well.So pinch of salt approach in that scenario. Just use my judgement when punting,live or die. |
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A fortnight tomorrow, we will have a much better idea if CF justifies short priced favouritism for the Arkle. The most telling indicator about the horse's well being has nothing to do with what Willie or Ruby might have said. It is the fact that he has virtually halved in price since his debut chase. He must be tearing it up at home.
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9 of the last 13 Arkle winners had run in excess of 16f in their novice season, tiutchev, Moscow, azertyuiop, my way, tidal bay, forpady, sizing, captain chris & simonsig. So I wouldn't look too deep into the fact Champagne Fever started his campaign over 20f.
It was an easy starting point for him. He is a Champion bumper and Supreme Novice hurdle winner and deserves his place at the head of the market. He has to prove he isn't up to the Arkle where all the opposition have to prove they are up to the Arkle. Xmas and the Irish Arkle will tell us if he is as good a chaser as he was hurdler. But if he wins those races I am certain Felix will be in the Jewson. It's a shame he isn't trained elsewhere as its a race most of us would like to see. |
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It's a shame he isn't trained elsewhere as its a race most of us would like to see
Sometimes I wonder brandy,reading through this thread I aint so sure!! Brandy, I think all these horses have to prove themselves,what they did over hurdles and on the flat does not mean they are chasers till proven so imo. In CF'S case he looked a good jumper on his debut and has proven hes a chaser for me,but the jury's still out on whether hes up to the Arkle, and will be for me until he proves he can win a 2m chase in the company he needs to. Of course connections see what goes on at home,and it could be hes working a lot better than FY,but as far as we are concerned we just have what we see on the racecourse.And that's where I do my judging of a horse. |
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FF,
Yep, couple of weeks time we should know a lot more,which means right now we don't,so a good ol debate is fair. As for the price,thats cos people are backing the horse,and imo backing based on his Cheltenham form,and not on his 2m chase form. Fair enough if people want to do that,but that's not how I look at backing novice chasers. |
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I'm not questioning whether CF is up to winning an Arkle tbh. I am questioning whether or not it will play to his strengths. He carries a lot of exuberance when racing so 2 miles and fences is a new test for him. He is the best horse in the race though, no doubt about that for me. He just looks like he could go up to 3 miles, especially on his breeding.
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Fair points that CF has yet to prove himself as good over fences but he jumped so well and his form over hurdles was so far in advance of Felix Yonger's. To be honest, I wouldn't be overly excited to see the two clash. I don't think Defy Logic or Trifolium are great, by any means, and think Felix might well be below the best at any distance.
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Thing is Tom,they are 2 milers that FY beat,and quiet fast ones at that imo. FY jumped well in both his races as well.
CF has beaten a 3 miler in his chase. If we are gonna keep bringing up hurdles form,we really need to be talking about a hurdle race. |
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Don't you think CF just has a good class edge on him though?
I take your point, but beating two-milers isn't that important unless they're very good. It's a boring old argument (and not one I would rely too heavily on either) but there is a lot of truth in the Arkle presenting a stiff test as well. It's not like we're talking about a race that will be run round Kempton. I really do think Trifolium is a very unreliable marker. |
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agreed tomdeane
take a look at the horses trifolium beat... if he couldn't beat that lot he,d have been retired on the spot.. |
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Yeh,quiet possible CH has a class edge mate,but don't forget FY has been off the track for a while.
I really think FY has improved a heck of a lot,how far can he go? really don't know. I'm just going on my feeling watching the horse,if i'm wrong then fair enough. Don't think I am though,hes a threat in whatever chase he ends up in imo,just hope its the Arkle for the race(exciting imo) and my bet although nrfb will soften the blow somewhat.Where I will agree with a lot of you is that it does SEEM as though they favour CF for the Arkle, but it aint done yet, and still a few races to be seen until it is I reckon. |
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He did beat Trifolium a long way lads.
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so did countrywide flame by 132 lengths and miley shah by 32 lengths rated 130 the same miley shah who was 21 lengths behing defy logic
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The Arkle as a race has gone through some big changes over the last few years fundamentally because of 2 reasons: 1) the introduction of the Jewson and the Centenary taking away almost all of the 'also rans' and 2) because of the concentration of the best horses at the top yards leading to the big three wanting to target as many festival races as possible with a realistic winner.
Two years ago Sprinter Sacre was 9/4 at the turn of year and it was decried as 'awful value', he went off odds on in a field of 6 and won easily. Last year Simonsig was 7/2 to open the season and was decried as 'awful value' (some opted for Captain Conan against him a horse that his trainer would of done anything he could to keep him apart from) he went off odds on in a field of 7 and won despite possibly carrying an infection. The same looks set to happen with Champagne Fever this year. He comes to chasing with similarly rock solid credentials and a clear class edge over all of his rivals with the exceptions of Grandouet and if he is to embark on a chasing career, Rock On Ruby. Graham Wylie is one of the most flexible owners in the game and always trusts the advice of the men he is paying to train and place his horses. Anyone hanging their hat on him making a stand and insisting Felix Yonger runs here is barmy imo. |