Cheltenham Festival
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Arkle 2014
Arkle 2014
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as said before with mullins its a guessing game as to what races his horses end up in ,arkle obvious choice ! but there has been money for him in the rsa on here !
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I think how TNO beat him told them that he was not going to win the CH. Therefore admittedly Plan B. Come March if this were a hurdle race with these Arkle runners what price would he be? Some might say CF would be favourite or maybe Grandouet but I would stick with ROR. Now this is a Chase and as yet I have not been put off. I will say though, that the best novice 2m chaser I have seen so far this year and I have backed him as well as ROR is Felix Yonger. Potentially CF and ROR maybe better but FY has the form in the book IMO.
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duffy I am stating the obvious here I know but maybe connections had a fair idea the last seasons novices were on paper a decent bunch ,and thought that they would test the water early season ,put in his place by the new one they came to the conclusion that ror would be better off against novice chasers on a more level playing field so to speak ,rather than one last hurrah over hurdles picking up the scraps against already very smart second season hurdlers who will probably only improve .
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Yep, that's what they did try I suppose, but as has been pointed out already on here, his age, wouldn't it have been better to have played the percentages and give him a proper full season over fences, knowing that if the hurdling route failed, they'd be handicapping themselves a bit by only allowing him a truncated novice season which is what they've done, one run mid december and then another 6 weeks before the next, and that's on the proviso that the good old british weather hasn't started playing up by then.
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think h.fry said he will try to get a similar nov chase into ror before Donny then hopefully the arkle ,as to why they didn't go chasing earlier perhaps they had a mind that if the novice hurdlers were not up to scratch and the fly getting older and only 2 !/2 ls to make up on him in this years ch he would have a decent chance in next years churdle ,but the new one scuppered that plan !
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Let's keep our fingers crossed the weather keeps behaving itself this winter, twice in the last 3 years that donny fixture has been lost to frost, be nice to see them get that 2nd small race into him quickly...perhaps here fry can take a leaf out of hendo's book!! and do a simonsig, twice in a week.
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tory
"I really like Champagne Fever. I think he's a very good horse. I think he has the pace to win at two (miles), like all good horses, but I wouldn't be worried about him getting four if he had to. Good horses have to have pace, staying horses have to have pace I think he means 4 miles matey  |
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Well hes obviously been schooling over fences a fair bit,as he looked a natural to me yesterday,so this plan was always a fair chance of happening.
Its not as if they have abandoned hurdling and started putting him over fences.Ok hes only had 1 race, but then so has the 3/1 fav. Hes a very experienced horse, and 1 or maybe 2 more runs before March should be fine imo. |
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alleged22 17 Dec 13 16:31
tory "I really like Champagne Fever. I think he's a very good horse. I think he has the pace to win at two (miles), like all good horses, but I wouldn't be worried about him getting four if he had to. Good horses have to have pace, staying horses have to have pace I think he means 4 miles matey Wink fook me, surely not the arkle, jewson, rsa and the national hunt chase to figure out  |
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Ruby has been told to tell people nothing by Mullins and co. He has changed from being fairly informative, to saying a horse could go anywhere, and that he just rides and will leave the plans to the Oirish Howard Johnston.
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Yeah, got that he meant 4 miles alleged, was just joking that surely chucking 4 possible races into the mix is a bit much for even a Mullins novice!
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When looking at the Arkle I tend to prefer to look for horses who had just their novice season over hurdles and switched straight to fences (as I'm sure most people do). I have formed this opinion for two reasons: firstly it usually means that the horse was earmarked as a chaser, rather than one that is doing it as a second thought; and secondly as I believe that the longer a horse stays over hurdles, the harder they find it to adjust to the harder obstacles. Most trends for novice chases only usually look at the eventual top OR of a horse over hurdles, so I decided to do a little research.
Record of horses that ran in over one season over hurdles prior to running in the Arkle (last 10 years. I chose to ignore horses with sps greater than 10/1, as no horse has won at that sort of price since Flagship Uberalles in 1999): 43415812235F38 The two winners were Sizing Europe @ 6/1 and My Way De Solzen @ 7/2 (how did SE go off at almost twice the price MWDS did?!). This leaves us with two winners from 14 qualifying runners, with a level stakes loss of -£2.50. Given the stingy nature of sps, we can probably assume that at early morning prices, we'd be around level or maybe slightly up. The finishing positions of the non-winning horses is decent enough too. I was inclined to oppose Grandouet and Rock on Ruby for this season's Arkle, but, while the sample size is far too small to formulate a particularly strong opinion, I think I should probably give them the benefit of the doubt until I see something on the racecourse to put me off them. |
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I can understand ROR's connections for switching to fences. They have seen he can not compete with this seasons new crop over hurdles and started him off at Plumpton with the bonus factor.
But let's take a look at his CH runs. He beat Overturn???? 2 years ago and last year got beat by an under performing, flat HF. HF was far from his best in last seasons CH, but destroyed ROR at Punchestown. I really do not rate ROR that highly. Champagne fever deserves to be a long way in front of ROR in the betting fir fhis years Arkle. He beat My Tent Or Yours and Jezki in last season Supreme. They are both high in the betting with HF for this seasons CH and are on the up curve unlike ROR. Can not have him on my mind for an Arkle. |
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Fair enough,each to their own.
I think hes a very interesting addition to the race. Big player imo. He has either won or come 2nd in the last 2 Churdles,and has just shown he can jump fences. How you look at his Churdles,or indeed the Supreme of CF is not for me a way of finding the outcome of a novice chase the following season. I agree hes not an improver,but its possible hes better than CF anyway,as CF has to improve being a novice last season against a Churdler. Way too much difference in the prices imo, but that's good.  |
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I think there's also another stat that the highest rated hurdler does well in the Arkle, which should put ROR in with a squeak?
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Anyone got any news on Dodging Bullets welfare? Seems to have gone very quiet since we last seen him and pretty friendless last couple days in Arkle market! Shirley my only antepost bet is not about to go tits up already is it
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Paul Nolan has warned that Defy Logic in unlikely to run at Leopardstown over Christmas unless ground conditions ease at the Dublin track.
The JP McManus-owned gelding is one of nine horses left in the Grade One Racing Post Novice Chase on Boxing Day, but with the ground currently good Nolan is hoping for rain. "All being well he'll run at Christmas, more than likely in the two-miler at Lopardstown, although it's ground dependent," said the Wexford handler. "He'll run providing the ground isn't good. With a little bit of luck they'll get the rain." Defy Logic made an impressive debut over fences at Naas in October before chasing home Felix Yonger in the Grade Two Craddockstown Novice Chase at Punchestown. That form has been franked since by the winner and Nolan is expecting improvement from his charge. "You're never delighted when they are beaten, but I thought he performed well," he said. "He's a bit inexperienced and wasn't great over the last two. Hopefully he should learn a lot from it." Champagne Fever, Felix Yonger, Don Cossack and Trifolium also feature in the list for the race following the forfeits. |
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Both CF and FL are intended to run on the 26th. So there you have it - for those of us on CC it's twitchy bum time and for those of you on FL you can sit back with nothing to lose
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*CF
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*CF
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who FL
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Tory,
I would have thought Felix Yonger would go for the Greenmount Park over 2m 3f at Limerick. Have you heard otherwise? |
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Meant FY Dec - too much red wine!!
Slabster - it's in tomorrow's Racing Post pal. "Intention is to run both CF and FY - both have earned the right to run' |
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Thanks Tory, as a backer of Felix for the Jewson I hope he has a change of heart
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Yeah, me too. I'm on CF at top end prices but FY has been most impressive so far this season. He's only been the price he has due to the fact that it was almost taken as a given that he wouldn't run in the arkle.
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Absolutely brilliant news that they intend running both.
Its good that the horses can do the talking, and its the only way we can know which one deserves to be the Arkle horse, or indeed if they both do. Just hope they stick to that decision. |
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I would be amazed if they ran both next Friday.
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Thursday even
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Champagne Fever 2/5
Defy Logic 5/1 Ted Veale 10/1 Trifolium 10/1 Art Of Logistics 20/1 Road To Riches 16/1 Shrapnel 25/1 |
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Does appear that FY is going to Limerick on the same day. Not quoted in the betting for the Racing Post. Interestingly, PP taking CF on and going 4/6...wonder how long that will last?
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As a racing fan it would be great to see. As. CF arkle backer though I'd rather they met with CF having had more than 1 chase run to FY's 3
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So they quote both run In the RP,and the RP don't price one of them!!
Was really getting excited about the thought of them lining up,although must admit rather surprised. |
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Oddschecker have some bookies prices up and all go Felix 2/1. It could be on.
Road to Riches an interesting runner back in trip. |
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They didnt yesterday Budd.
Piddy power think he will run looking at their prices. |
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lets hope so mate.
Winner wins the Arkle imo. |
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Although I think Ned Buntline has crept into the picture after yesterday.
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This may well be on. I think PP knew yesterday that FY was an intended runner and priced CF up with that in mind without having FY in the list. However, this is WPM we are talking about and if a week is a long time in politics, it's a feckin lifetime in Willie's World.
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 what would we have to talk about without Willie...a lot less thats for sure. |
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mullins said yesterday in his column from the racing post that they will meet...
will be nice to see felix yonger favourite for the arkle at the festival...especially on the back of the easy victory to come at leopardstown  3-1 might look value after the race on felix  and 10/12's might look value on champagne for the jewson pre-race  |
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I have lost my bottle and taken the 12/1 on Felix Yonger with PP. Figure if he beats CF at Leopardstown he will shorten hugely and will become WM's Number 1 Arkle horse. At the same time by default CF thus becomes the stable Jewson horse and his price tumbles to less than 3/1 for Jewson. To cover myself I have also taken a CF (Arkle)/ Felix Yonger (Jewson) Double. Just didn't want to miss that juicy 12/1 FY for the Arkle. Wille no doubt ants CF to be a Gold Cup fires so the Jewson might be best option for CF in the same way he took Sir Des Champ that route before Gold Cup. All guesswork but I will sleep better tonight knowing I have covered both options.
Now I need to sort out the Faugheen/Briar Hill conundrum……..loving it…. |