Cheltenham Festival
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Arkle 2014
Arkle 2014
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Bubble burst.
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Well there you have it! CF made a bad mistake 2 out but Defy Logic made 2 errors. Trifolium 2nd. If FY isn't aimed at the Arkle now then Wylie must be fuming.
Quite obvious what needs to Happen. FY for the Arkle and CF for the Jewson. However Mullins is pig headed and may try and save face. |
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Gonna have to top up on rock on ruby now.
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It's not bubble burst. Far from ideal but he landed on that fence when tanking and easily had DL covered. I'd say its still up in the air as to shah happens here. Let's not forget he was turned over a couple of times over hurdles last season and then won the supreme at chelt
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its thrown the cat among the pigeons tho , defy logic harried and put it up to cf and didn't give him a moment to himself up front champ fevers jumping suspect under pressure and they will exploit it every opportunity !
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Not too sure how todays events strengthens FY shout for an arkle run....he won't be winning anything at the festival running like that today, and it wasn'tr anything to do with the distance, he's won over further....both he and CF now have questions to answer .
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It's definitely put the cat amongst the pigeons, no question. Let's look at the facts though - he's been turned over the last two yrs in a row (3 now) in December and come back to win in the spring. He jumped immaculately until he made a catastrophic error - today was his 2nd chase start. He will have learnt a lot but was still very inexperienced.
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DL winner on merit today. CF jumped well until his mistake and seemed to empty very quickly after. Maybe he was hurt in the process....who knows. Post race comments will be interesting. Didn't see the Limerick race but probably a day that WPM will want to forget!
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yonger travelled well about 4 lengths off the lead the whole way but simply didn't pick up when townend asked him too and the leader kept going.
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Duffy, I'd say today def strengthens FY Arkle bid. The facts are he has beaten both todays Grade 1 winner Defy Logic and 2nd Trifolium comfortably over 2 miles. Todays defeat is really irrelevant over 2m4f. Even though he has won over further it is VERY clear his best form is at 2m IMO. Sure CF was travelling well but he hadn't shaken DL off and he'd made 2 bad mistakes. They think CF is a Gold Cup horse and the Jewson seems logical. The only people on here who don't agree are the same folk who have punted him at a too short 3/1.
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The point I'm trying to make is regardless of the race he ran in on todays level of performance he wouldn't win anything, neither of them would...the only winners today are the opposition in the arkle and jewson.
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as said earlier they will put it up to champ fever over 2m at a fast pace and see if his jumping holds up defo opened up the market now !not saying he wont win the arkle but it will be on connections minds going flat out over the minimum could put his jumping under pressure ! could run in any of the arkle Jewson or even a step up to 3m .
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as said earlier they will put it up to champ fever over 2m at a fast pace and see if his jumping holds up defo opened up the market now !not saying he wont win the arkle but it will be on connections minds going flat out over the minimum could put his jumping under pressure ! could run in any of the arkle Jewson or even a step up to 3m .
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as said earlier they will put it up to champ fever over 2m at a fast pace and see if his jumping holds up defo opened up the market now !not saying he wont win the arkle but it will be on connections minds going flat out over the minimum could put his jumping under pressure ! could run in any of the arkle Jewson or even a step up to 3m .
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as said earlier they will put it up to champ fever over 2m at a fast pace and see if his jumping holds up defo opened up the market now !not saying he wont win the arkle but it will be on connections minds going flat out over the minimum could put his jumping under pressure ! could run in any of the arkle Jewson or even a step up to 3m .
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as said earlier they will put it up to champ fever over 2m at a fast pace and see if his jumping holds up defo opened up the market now !not saying he wont win the arkle but it will be on connections minds going flat out over the minimum could put his jumping under pressure ! could run in any of the arkle Jewson or even a step up to 3m .
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as said earlier they will put it up to champ fever over 2m at a fast pace and see if his jumping holds up defo opened up the market now !not saying he wont win the arkle but it will be on connections minds going flat out over the minimum could put his jumping under pressure ! could run in any of the arkle Jewson or even a step up to 3m .
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as said earlier they will put it up to champ fever over 2m at a fast pace and see if his jumping holds up defo opened up the market now !not saying he wont win the arkle but it will be on connections minds going flat out over the minimum could put his jumping under pressure ! could run in any of the arkle Jewson or even a step up to 3m .
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as said earlier they will put it up to champ fever over 2m at a fast pace and see if his jumping holds up defo opened up the market now !not saying he wont win the arkle but it will be on connections minds going flat out over the minimum could put his jumping under pressure ! could run in any of the arkle Jewson or even a step up to 3m .
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as said earlier they will put it up to champ fever over 2m at a fast pace and see if his jumping holds up defo opened up the market now !not saying he wont win the arkle but it will be on connections minds going flat out over the minimum could put his jumping under pressure ! could run in any of the arkle Jewson or even a step up to 3m .
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sorry for repeating myself ffs what happened there !
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Still think it will be Champagne Fever in the Arkle and Felix in the Jewson. It took Felix a while to pick up today but probably would have won had the race been over further. I'd draw a line through his run today to be honest.
Felix Yonger has drifted to 14/1 for the Jewson with BV on the back of his defeat today The ground was heavy and when asked to quicken after the second last he couldn't bridge the gap to The Paparazzi Kid, who he was giving seven pounds. It looked a slowly run race and I wouldn't give you much for the reliability of the form. If we look at his form on a larger scale it has received a number of serious boosts today. Defy Logic and Trifolium, who he swatted, have placed 1st and 2nd in the Grade 1 at Leopardstown while he thrashed The Paparazzi Kid 23 lengths giving him 4 lbs last time out. If you didn't know Felix Yonger has run today you'd think he was becoming more and more the horse to beat for the Jewson, his form receiving plenty of boosts. He flew up the hill in a Neptune, Jewson seems the obvious place to go with him. Having taken 12/1 and 8/1 already, I've availed of BV's 14/1, seems absolutely huge to me  Back to the Arkle, was delighted to see Defy Logic win, backed him for the Arkle for small money a long time ago and that race surely has to be the aim now. Himself and Champagne Fever going toe to toe down the back was a sight to behold, and the way he found more up the hill was impressive. I wouldn't write Champagne Fever off though, he's thrown in the odd stinker in the past and bounced back. |
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Willie Mullins has a rotten record of sending horses into Grade 1 chases with just one run. You would think he would learn, but no. Flat Out got injured in Irish Arkle after bad mistake having had 1 previous run. MDH started in a Grade and fell at the last. It's very tough on a horse to ask them to win a Grade 1 race with just one previous chase start.
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Today's racing would certainly open the debate again as to who's Willie Mullins better Arkle prospect. Most likely doesn't know himself. Felix Younger disappointing but at the same time the first 2 home at Leopardstown lost to him in each of his last 2 starts and they both beat beat Champagne Fever today. Not so sure that Champagne Fever would have on without his mistake. He was going well but so was Defy Logic and Trifolium stayed on again. The Irish certainly have a much better group of 2m novice chasers this year when compared with last.
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Hopefully Grandouet will win well 2mara and put himself firmly in the Arkle picture.
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Champagne Fever looked to me to have everything under control and just shows you there is no room for error in a 2m Chase at G1 Level. I backed Defy Logic @25/1 for the Arkle after he got beat by Felix Yonger coz he looked good and the defeat was marginal. Defy Logic is a good 2m Chaser let there be no mistake about that. I can't help thinking the Arkle winner will come from Ireland and the top three are CF, DL and FY. The one caveat on that statement is if Rock on Ruby proves to be the real deal over fences. Hinterland and Grandouet never cut it when the chips are down. 5/1 CF looks an absolutely great bet.
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the way I saw it the irish arkle rode like a good race ,and the way the 2 in front( dl and )put 10 lengths of daylight between them and trifolium in a matter of strides when they quickened about 5 out was impressive ,trifolium made up a fair few lengths but without the mistakes from defy logic and cham fever they would have been well clear imo, hard to say who would have won but think it would have been close and the 8-1 defy logic who looks as tho he will defo be going for the arkle looks tempting as champagne fever could go Jewson !also when defy logic was beaten by felix younger at punchestown felix had had more chasing experience and dl made a mistake at the last think it will be a lot closer if the 2 meet again .
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I love the comment from earlier on that CF seemed to weaken quickly after his mistake - have you ever been kicked in the stomach and then tried to run straight afterwards!! He did well to carry on!!
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Good post HB. I'll watch CF's error again in due course. Before it, he seemed to be hacking. After it, he emptied very quickly....probably winded and/or hurt but not the anticipated response of a stayer! Even Paul Nolan acknowledged that CF's error was a howler.
DL was very good today....made a couple of small mistakes himself but stuck at it well when he was briefly headed in consequence. Interesting that the jock said he had come on a lot for Punchestown? and I suspect the form of today's race is very strong. |
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Never judge a horse on a race ending error,and that was pretty much one yesterday imo.
Some will though, as they did with Al Ferof in the Arkle,but its totally unfair...unless you are judging his jumping!! These 2 yesterday were running really good races,yes DL made a couple of small mistakes but generally was impressive.No idea who would have won had CF not done that,but I think it would have been pretty close. As far as the Arkle concerned personally I think Defy Logic is an out and out 2 miler,not so sure about CF,and the way his trainer was talking after the race he seems to agree(thinking maybe stepping up). He could still win an Arkle though,as its littered with horses winning that stay further. I think CF would be a very good bet to win the Jewson, not so the Arkle. Be interesting what connections think. |
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I think you would want to see CF run again before taking any 5/1.
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I think the Irish Arkle at the end of Jan could be a cracker.
I'm sure the will want to take DL on again Champagne. They've made it quite clear that the softer the going the better for DL so 5-1 is looking quite tempting for Champagne now. |
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I'm sure THEY will want to take DL on again WITH Champagne.
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champagne fever ran poorly last year around this time and came back to win at cheltenham,might be a spring horse
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I don't think CF stands too much racing and there is no doubt he will be trained to peak in March. Looks like he needs the practice though!
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I know it's a classic cliché, but Champagne Fever (from memory - haven't watched it back yet) barely touched a twig until the mistake; it wasn't as if he ploughed through it like a moron, he just stood off a bit far through exuberance. Granted, there's no room for that at Cheltenham but the horse should learn from it imo. In what looks a fairly weak Arkle year, I'm staggered that Rock on Ruby is still 16s.
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well disappointing from both mullins horses tbf...agree with sint in regards moving horses straight into grade 1 company after one start...personally as much as champagne jumped well up until the mistake i just wonder it was because he was out of his comfort zone...he will still probably end up in the arkle but for me i would like to see him go up in trip, thus not putting so much pressure on his jumping...
well although i only have peanuts on yonger as i am not a big ante post bettor anymore, he was still disappointing, i can't help but feel he hasn't been trained like the good horse he is and 3 tough runs in a month have taken there toll on the horse judging by this performance...his last run against trifolium when they went very quick after a tough race against a race fit defy logic clearly have affected the horse...only in my opinion but cannot help but feel if he hadn't taken in the run mid month so soon after punchestown and gone for the arkle yesterday we would of seen a better horse but the edge has been taken off him...we will see but disappointing all the same...it is hope they back off him |
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WPM said in his post-race interview yesterday they ''might'' go out in trip with CF. They ''need to discuss it''. Given a lot of us think he wants a trip anyway I think it's crazy to be taking 5/1 for the Arkle to be honest.
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I think it'scrazy to put any credence on anything that Willie Mullins says, full stop.
Now - about those races in Britain he was targeting this season. |