Cheltenham Festival
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Arkle 2014
Arkle 2014
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Not sure about anyone else,but I personally want the best 2 milers in the Arkle.
Let the Jewson take care of itself imo. |
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Are you all gone mad. If WM and Ruby say that CF is his best chance in the Arkle and they believe FY can win the Jewson its a no brainer. What people on here might want to see is totally irrelevant.
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Well whatever happens next, today's events seem to have simply strengthened WPM's hand. I was impressed with Hinterland's effort (and winning time) but given his previous level of form, I'm struggling to see him as an Arkle winner which casts doubts about those that finished behind him too. Grandouet travelled like a very good horse but when the chips were down, he couldn't cut it, despite having everything in his favour..... true run race and decent ground. TDS might be more competitive on slow ground but I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the Jewson if it is not come March.
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I think CF needs more then 2 mile to show he's true class and FY looks top class over 2 mile, plus FY has ran twice over the distance and CF has ran over 2 and a half this season. So why mess about with trips? CF Jewson and FY Arkle ( seen as I backed FY for the Arkle and still think CF is overrated )
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A lot can happen between now and March, but as it stands IMO Felix Yonger is the best 2m novice chaser we've seen. Champage Fever may come out and destroy a G1 Novice chase field over 2m or beat something of note over 2m, but until then he is just potential. If he gets beat the FY has to be number 1. 3 months to Chelt and I'm happy with my 16/1 NRFB on FY.
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I think CF needs more then 2 mile to show he's true class and FY looks top class over 2 mile, plus FY has ran twice over the distance and CF has ran over 2 and a half this season. So why mess about with trips? CF Jewson and FY Arkle ( seen as I backed FY for the Arkle and still think CF is overrated )
Must have been a substandard Bumper and Supreme that he won then. Funny that - has beaten 3 of the firt 4 in the betting for the CH in those 2 races, so maybe TNO, MTOY and Jezki would be better off the World Hurdle? What a load of bollix! |
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How Champagne Fever can be described as "over-rated" and "just potential" is beyond me.
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Potential as a chaser. One run is not the finished article. Question? Which 2m Novice right now has the best form? Does anyone think that CF novice win is the best Arkle form physically on show. The answer is "NO" if you have any idea about the game. However he is potentially the best. Point proven I'd say, MYSTIC.
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Potential as a chaser - granted.
Potential as a Cheltenham Festival winner - proven (twice). I'll accept that his current price assumes he'll be as good a chaser as he was hurdler/bumper. The trainer has always suggested he would. I would describe it as "assumption" rather than "potential". Other than a pre-season double with MTOY I haven't backed him for the Arkle - would still love to see him win though. |
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As much as I would like to support a different opinion, I think a few on here are seeing this as they want, rather than as it is.
I'm pretty sure CF is Mullins' number one Arkle hope, and am pretty sure he'd beat FY over two miles. I suspect he'll run in and win the Arkle, and that FY goes for the Jewson. Of course things can change, but to me CF looked a natural on debut and has plenty of pace. That he beat the likes of MTOY and Jezki and is a two-time championship winner from only two starts at the Festival suggests he is out of the top drawer. Don't overthink this IMO. |
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Problem is that we have seen this season that FY has beaten 2 good 2 milers pretty easily,over 2m.
And we have seen CF beat a stayer over 2 and a half. Based on that I Think it fair for people to have the opinion that right now FY looks the better Arkle candidate out of the 2. People are obviously looking at the Cheltenham form of CF,and that's fair enough and the major reason he is the price he is,but winning a bumper and a supreme does not make him an Arkle Chase winner,it just makes him a horse that acts well at Cheltenham. Anyway I really hope both run in the race,FY deserves his place based on what ive seen,and CF seems to be the fav of trainer and jockey,so he will almost definitely be in the race. Going on what I saw yesterday,if either of these don't run in the Arkle we could be looking at another small field with a very short priced fav, and I for one do not want that again. Just imagine CF bowling along with FY stalking and then the hill decides whether he can get past a strong front running stayer...that's what we want aint it?? |
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Wonder if we might have unanimous agreement that the winner will be Irish trained?
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Well I certainly don't see any from Sandown yesterday winning,so for me that only leaves Dodging Bullets and maybe Oscar Whiskey. Very disappointed with Balder Succes, and TDS is not a 2 miler.
Hinterland has proved the best we got at the moment I think, and to get a fair hurdler off the bridle before the last fence twice now is good, but I have a feeling that's more down to Grandouet being what he is, a tad dodgy imo. Yep,Irish winner for me mate and if Defy Logic and Trifolium can improve and maybe settle a bit more, I could see them making it interesting, particularly from the point of view that we could have 3 front runners!! Race could be a belter,or disintegrate. |
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grandouet rallied after the last,anyway we're all under estimating hinterland here, last year he was a nut case and until his bubble burst early on he was nicholl's great hope for the season, when looking at him I'd prefer to take the view that here we've have a horse that has been lucky enough to be able to gain a lot more experience over fences compared to his peers and now as a totally transformed horse is starting to show his true ability over fences.
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well my opinion is trifolium went off like a scolded cat and set it up for the stayer FY
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tomdeane
07 Dec 13 23:17 Joined: 29 Jul 04 | Topic/replies: 1,156 | Blogger: tomdeane's blog As much as I would like to support a different opinion, I think a few on here are seeing this as they want, rather than as it is. I'm pretty sure CF is Mullins' number one Arkle hope, and am pretty sure he'd beat FY over two miles. I agree with your opinions a lot tomdeane but don't agree with this at all...so far felix yonger has put in some exhibition stuff against far superior opponents than champagne fever has faced and on his run yesterday for me is a stone and a half at least better than champagnes debut, champagne can only improve but would have to as felix can also only get better...If a match bet did a occur i would hammer felix yonger to beat champagne over 2 miles he looks in another parish to me on what i have seen and is still a lightly raced type who can only improve further... i do agree that them meeting will probably not happen but one thing i know for sure and that is felix looks a far better betting proposition from what we have seen so far and in any normal year would be 4-1 favorite for the arkle on what he has achieved so far with no real stand out over here... champagne is the form horse from hurdle achievement, that isn't to say he will improve and be that good over fences...doesn't interest me at all for the arkle at the prices...deplorable value...that isn't to say he cannot win but improve he is going to have to as much as i like the jewson this is the circumstance when i hate the introduction of the race...it is however a grade 1 this year so carries some prestige... it is still takes some top class horses from the arkle as we found with captain conan last year, who didn't get home in the jewson but for me would of taken the beating in the arkle the way the arkle panned out |
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When Hinterland started chasing last season he was just a 4yo. He has improved under the best trainer of a chaser.
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Which of Champagne Fever and Felix Younger would the board consider the most likely to see out a longer trip?
One has a damsire called Roselier. That's a pedigree I look for in potential Grand National types |
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I couldn't agree more that the best hurdlers do not always make the best chasers, and that is a trap that so many people fall into.
But, when the best hurdlers take to chasing, it's a pretty fair bet that they will also make the best chasers. Champagne Fever looked a really good jumper to me, and ok, we need to see him do it in a better race and over two miles to be sure. But I think the likelihood is that he will do that, probably over Christmas. Champagne Fever is two from two at the Festival, both over the minimum trip, and both times he beat really, really good horses. Felix Yonger, while undoubtedly improving and clearly a very good horse, got absolutely tanked on his only trip to Cheltenham (OK, he was second, but in another parish to Simonsig). Fine to withhold judgement for a while, and I point out that I haven't backed anything yet. Just think, taking an objective view, that CF is likely to be Mullins' number one, and fairly comfortably so. Also, I wouldn't be too sure about using Trifolium as a yardstick to promote the claims of FY. He had a total non-event of a season last time, the Supreme he ran in looked weak enough, and he beat trees on his chasing debut. He might not be that good these days. I do agree with sintonian's views of Hinterland. I think he is probably very decent these days and thought that Grandouet ran well yesterday too. I thought that ran like a good race with Claret Cloak setting a good pace and jumping well for most of the race. I also have this lingering feeling that we might not have seen the best of the British yet. Not that I'm necessarily linking the two (  ), but has anyone heard what's going on with Binocular? |
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Yeh, if hinterland was chasing for the first time this season, after these first 2 runs he'd probably be a fair bit shorter now, but it's his exploits last year that are causing people to over-look him somewhat, yet he's looked as good as anything so far and certainly won the best quality race, the mullins horses frighten people though regardless ...rightly so a lot of the time I suppose though.
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does anyone consider the ground and champagne's victory in the supreme?? for me the ground looked to be riding pretty slow and tiring...i think he just saw it out the better, it wasn't that he was particularly quick and his chase debut told me he would be better going up in trip...
felix yonger is not short of speed and for me his run against simonsig when given plenty to do, because i believe he was ridden to get the trip was a better effort than the bare form...yes he was beaten 8l but was 8l by a monster who he gave start, who in all fairness if kept hurdling probably would of been favorite for the champion hurdle, so no disgrace there for me... anyway fair enough trifolium i have never particularly liked, but they went championship pace and any chink he would of been found out...he didn't and won easily again i remember once betting tidal bay for the RSA and the owners pulling it for the arkle, the same thing is going to occur here, i just hope punters backing either horse are told before the last week of the race what the targets are |
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Good point re the ground Harry, it was said to be quite tiring that day. Though given the Arkle is on the first day it will be at least Good to Soft.
Alan King was said to have a load of promising novice chasers at the start of this season but for me only one of them has stood out and that is Valdez. He absolutely destroyed the field in his last race and his form from his debut chase has been franked by The Italian Yob. He may have won a handicap last time out, but he is now rated 152 (!) with the promise of more to come. He, for me, is the best chaser in the King yard. |
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There will be for sure some shocks on where these willie mullin horses end up come March.
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Been having a re think somewhat after reading some comments on here in particular from Duffy and Sint.
Think its a fair point that Hinterland is being overlooked a tad, and must admit I thought he just weren't up to being an Arkle threat. Had another look at his races this season, and have changed my mind about him. Hes put in 2 good performances at a track that takes some jumping for a novice, and totally unfair to dismiss him. To get a hurdler of Grandouets ability off the bridle twice is no mean feat. Luckily sky bet still seem to be taking him lightly and are a generous 14/1. |
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PFN's comments post-race.
Nicholls said: "He's got loads of speed and I think he wants hanging on to as long as possible. I'm starting to work him out now, he's come on a huge amount for his last run, but he's best going fresh. "The Arkle is tailor-made for him and I won't be in a huge rush to do a lot with him now." Jacob said: "He's a lovely horse and we've always thought a lot of him at home. There were no prisoners out there, we went a ferocious gallop early doors, I was nearly struggling to lay up with them at one stage but fair play to him - he dug deep and after the second-last I got a lovely run up through and pinged the last." |
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yeh,i saw that interview with nicholls Sint, another reason to think I was premature in my original assesment of the horse.
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The form line between Hinterland and Grandouet is very consistent. If the latter had stood up on his chasing debut, I suspect it would have been similarly close. Either good enough to win an Arkle? You pays your money and takes your choice. Neither good enough for me.
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Still prefer Felix, but I have to include Hinterland now as a threat.No way of knowing how good any of them will be by March as well.All will improve at some sort of rate during the season I imagine.
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If both are fit and well come Cheltenham time I can only see CF in the Arkle and FY in the Jewson. Now its early days yet and if CF did not make it then I could see FY running in the Arkle. WM gets a bit of abuse because he doesnt tell everyone in advance where everything is running but its not so simple when a trainer has such fire-power. To me his novice chase options are obvious all being well. Not so simple are his novice hurdle options. I reckon it is still a bit early to write off the UK runners for the Arkle - we still have three months to go but admit there may not be anything obvious.
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Ruby commented that Trifolium had FY in a bit of trouble early on,and that he would not go backwards for a step up in trip.
The 2m 1 nov chase at Leopardstown is next for CF,Ruby will have a big say where these two end up,it looks like CF arkle and FY jewson. |
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Yeh,he talks a good game does Ruby!! He no doubt wants to win both the Arkle and the Jewson.
Mind you,he also said FY is quick enough for 2m,and judging by the way he has won his 2 races over 2m,he aint wrong!! |
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One thing for sure,if Ruby gets his way the 2 will be separated.
Guess it all comes down to owners jockey and trainer deciding which race suits the 2 horses best and whether they are happy with 1 in the Jewson. They might both be adamant they want their horses in the Arkle,who knows. Its not beyond the realms that either could end up in the Jewson imo, still early in the season and Cfever still has to prove hes a 2m chaser, and it is possible that FY is the quicker of the 2. |
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We keep talking of separating them, but how many horses has Mullins that are good enough? He could be double/triple handed in all the novice events this season come March.
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Think this more likely in the hurdles than chases shockster and sadly, we know from experience that it is very unlikely that they will all get there.
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Mozoltov entered at the weekend - WPM could have three to choose from
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Rock on Ruby is entered in the 12.40 2m1f Novice Chase at Plumpton next Monday 16th December. He's quick enough.
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At the end of the day it sounds as if mullins and certainly walsh think that CF is the better bet over 2 miles, so, if they turn round to wylie and say, look, all things being equal, FY can't beat CF over 2 miles, what's wylie supposed to say apart from step him up in trip then, after all they are bound to have an opinion one way or another, and who would want to pitch one in when you don't think it can beat the other.
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The Grade 1 Novice Chase at Leopardstown on Boxing Day will give us all a better idea of the pecking order. We will see who turns out and where we stand.
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This all sounds very much like the HF,Zark comments from walsh, he even made a point of saying that trifolium had him in a bit of trouble, continuously drip drip dripping the step up in trip idea....I do agree with him when all said and done.
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Ricci already confirmed CF is going to run in that Shockster
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