Cheltenham Festival
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Arkle 2014
Arkle 2014
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I am a fan of his also, of course i am and i will have him on my side, probably through a small wager (enough to make it a saver) on him in billys win any race market. I am on DB at 16s after Saturdays race each way as i like to do all of my wagering but with my feeling he might only be placed or slightly worse in the Arkle i think that is the bet for insurance purposes in case i am wrong. After all, it is a horse race lol. Anything can happen and this is just speculation.
I just hope that DB can continue to improve for fences and Nichols decides this year he will need a prep run in an egg and spoon race early to mid feb before the Arkle itself as i think that was his downfall before the supreme not having run since before Xmas |
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its been the downfall of many not having a prep before chelts
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I can't see them both running in the Arkle, Ruby will see to that. (He normally gets his way)
But 16-1 nrfb is a cracking bet Budd and definitely worth taking. |
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Yep I thought so as well brandy,rather have 16 nrfb than his stablemate at 5,thats for sure.
At least hes had a chase over the Arkle distance!! |
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I've gone in and backed Felix Yonger with BV very good offer 16/1 NRFB. Looked impressive to me on Sunday.
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Yeh,he was impressive,sometimes you just go with what your eyes tell you and not with what jockeys/trainers tell you!!
That was a fair test with Defy Logic making the pace,and to me looked more of an Arkle pointer than when CF beat a stayer the day before. |
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Felix Yonger has an entry in the Drimore at Fairyhouse on 1st December....over 2 and a half miles! Tricky boy is our Willie......
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FY would have, it is an early closing race...entries were out many weeks ago...
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I see Ned Buntline has a novice chase entry on Sunday. He was one of my '2 to follow' last year and ran with great promise before getting injured. He could be interesting though he is a typical Meade/Carberry bridle horse and we all know what Noel Meades Cheltenham record is like.
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I would expect to see Ned Buntline campaigned with the Grand Annual in mind rather than the Arkle. For now I'd say Defy Logic will get the benefit of the doubt, as he's already looking at a rating that will render him out of the picture regards festival handicaps.
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Ned Buntline is still an exciting prospect. The races he has been beaten in have been behind horses like Jezki & Bright New Dawn. Surely much better than a handicapper.
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Hello Sint,
I do agree that Ned Buntline is better than a handicapper. He was my main a/p play in last seasons Supreme…..it’s second guessing the owners requirements that’s the key. On the flat I pay attention to what O’Brien is doing with his some of his horses as it gives an indication as to what he’ll do with others, and vis a vis the potential of horses at other stables. In the NH game the dominant factor is not a stable but JP McManus…a true asset to the racing game. So its worthwhile having a look at several of his horses to pre-determine the outcome of his others. So in this case we have Defy Logic and Ned Buntline. Both to me cannot fit any race at the festival bar the 2 mile chases; they don’t look to have a great deal more than that in the tank. As Defy Logic has already posted a RPR figure of 152, that in effect puts the kybosh on the Grand Annual…..so the Arkle is the only viable option. Ned Buntline has yet to put a marker down, and his racing style (held up) is conducive to attaining a handicap mark…front runners (Defy Logic) struggle in this fudge. So would JP (via Berry) look at it this way. How about Fota Island: winner of the Grand Annual, yet had run in the Champion Hurdle the previous year. ….or maybe more recently. Take a look a Regal Encore the other day and then think of the way that My Tent or Yours and Darlan were campaigned. I like Ned, but I feel there may be an alternate plan for him. |
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Trifolium, another horse that I kaiboshed by advising at 100/1 for the Champion Hurdle last year
 makes his chase debut today.He clearly had a major problem last year (not seen since tailed off when 4/1 for the Fighting Fifth a year ago) but his novice form was very promising. |
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Interesting LUFC, we shall see, he'd be very interesting in a handicap at some stage of the rating was suitable.
Trifolium was very impressive with his jumping just now at Thurles. |
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Just watched the trifolium race. Jockey let him bound along at a decent clip and he really attacked his fences, very impressive indeed. Another Arkle contender for sure.
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Trifolium was always going to be one who improved for the bigger obstacles. A very good hurdler but he has chaser written all over him. A real exciting one.
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This weekends gonna be interesting.
Dodging Bullets, Balder Success, Taquin de Seuel, Hinterland, Grandouet all entered at Sandown Felix Yonger and Trifolium entered at Navan. |
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Prob all wont run, in particular one of DB and TDS I guess, but should unravel things a tad..... hopefully!!
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I've had a little bit more on Felix Yonger. Cracking offer NRFB Betvictor and top price.
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Yeah Shocks, I've done the same. Really fancy him for the Jewson and have him at a big price, but I've had a little saver on the Arkle.
I'm hoping Grandouet goes for the easier race at Warwick on Sunday, and then I might selotape my betting slip back together if he wins. Nicky was complaining that there aren't enough 2m novice chases, and Grandouet really needs experience, and after his first run it makes no sense to pitch him in a hot G1 novice chase. Also, had no idea that Manyriverstocross is a novice chaser and is only 8. He seems to have been around forever. |
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SIR MARTIN BROUGHTON will once again ensure Dodging Bullets dodges his other star novice chaser Taquin Du Seuil this weekend but the owner could be frustrated in his desire to run Jonjo O'Neill's exciting Racing Post Arkle Trophy hope at Sandown.
Broughton is keen to unleash the O'Neill-trained Taquin Du Seuil in Saturday's Grade 1 Racing Post Henry VIII Novices' Chase but the prospect of unsuitable ground conditions could persuade him to instead send the Paul Nicholls-trained Dodging Bullets. Both chasers won for the former BHB chairman at Cheltenham's Open meeting with Dodging Bullets landing a Grade 2 prize over 2m and Taquin Du Seuil posting a victory over 2m4f. The owner's two high-class recruits are among nine horses entered in the reopened Henry VIII, which could also play host to Dodging Bullets' stable companion Hinterland and the Nicky Henderson-trained Grandouet. Broughton said: "The idea was for Taquin to run but he particularly likes soft going, which at this time of year we thought Sandown would have. However, it now looks like the chase course will be good, or even the firmish side of good. "We've entered Dodging because we wouldn't want to risk Taquin on anything with even a hint of firm in it. On the other hand, Dodging likes that sort of going. "This time Taquin has first call. If Jonjo is happy to run Taquin that's what we'll do, but if he's in any way worried about the going we'll run Dodging." Clerk of the course Andrew Cooper on Tuesday kept the chase course description at good, good to soft in places, with the hurdles course good to soft. Light patchy rain was expected on Tuesday night. Cooper, who is "reserving judgement" on deploying frost covers, said: "It wouldn't take long for the ground to get to the fast side of good on the chase course but we also had a very wet first half of November and any rain would soften the ground quite quickly. "At this stage I would be expecting good ground on the chase course and good to soft on the hurdles course." |
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In case anyone is interested,i got victor to price up Trifolium for the Arkle.
20/1 nrfb which I think is fair value to be honest. |
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aye, think that's a decent price, jumped super on his debut.
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I'd be inclined to agree with that budd. I backed him for the race in the autumn of 2012 before it was announced that he was staying over hurdles. Wouldn't have mattered though as last season, he'd have struggled to win a seller at Plumpton! Will watch his development over fences with interest though I'm already committed to the CF bandwagon.
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Nowt wrong with having a couple of nice priced ones as back up mate,particularly with the nrfb option,imo.
Who knows what could happen between now and March. |
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Felix Yonger endeavours to give Trifolium 4lbs at Navan tomorrow.....interesting.
Henry VIII chase at Sandown looks the best 2 mile novice chase run this side of the water so far this season by some way. Definitely worth the watch. It's hotting up! |
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Yeh,looks a good race that tomorrow, makes a change to have a few candidates for a big race at Cheltenham running against each other earlier in season.
Hoping for a nice run from Balder Success personally,on at nice odds for the Arkle. Quiet possible that we could have a horse(or 2)coming out of this race going on to be better In time than the winner of the Tingle Creek. |
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"This time Taquin has first call. If Jonjo is happy to run Taquin that's what we'll do, but if he's in any way worried about the going we'll run Dodging."
Must be getting pretty dry at Sandown now,wonder if he will end up a non runner? |
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Interesting that Taquin Du Seuil gets the nod over Dodging Bullets, especially given the fact the ground is known to be Good on the chase track.
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I'm very much hoping to see grandouet do the business tomorrow, I wasn't as downbeat as many over his jumping last time and I'm hoping with that first run out of the way he will take a big step forward.
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It's one hot race though isn't it.
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Yeh that's what I thought Sint as they said DB prefers better ground and TDS likes it softer.
Tad strange. |
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Whoever wins it will be second Fav for the Arkle. Claret Cloak aint out of this, he loves/needs Good ground.
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Think you are right there Sint,but the winner in Ireland should go a fair bit shorter as well mate.
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Its "Arkle Weekend"
Just love it!!!  |
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I think it's a good move to run TDS in this, they want to find out how he'll react on similar ground to what he'd probably face in the arkle itself, couple that with the quality of the field and it's a very good move, rather than months of guessing, tomorrow will tell them exactly what direction he needs to go in, well done.
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I am not sure it will re the Ground, Duffy. The going on the Chase track at Sandown is Good. For the first day at Cheltenham they always water it so it is a minimum of Good to Soft. Anyway, i'm not sure TDS is such the heavy ground slogger people believe. He is flat bred and has form on Good/GS. It just depends if tomorrows going is too quick for him relative to the other horses in the race as there is no way it will be Good on Day 1 in March, there will be the word soft in the going description for certain.
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Whether it really is though is probably open to debate, this time last year you couldn't go 2 posts in a row without tripping over "rain" and "water table" well by the same token, it isn't raining anymore, they may have to chuck the equivalent of the channel to get it soft.
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yep fair point, it has been very dry this season so far.
I'm just getting my excuses in early if he is beaten tomorrow!  |
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Anyway, anyone who fancies genuine soft ground horses for the festival only need to keep reading the front page of the daily express every day to keep their spirits up
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