Cheltenham Festival
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Arkle 2014
Arkle 2014
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Well,you look at Al Ferof,Spirit Son
 ,Cue Card and Sprinter Sacre,and what they have achieved since that Supreme,its gonna be bl00dy hard for this years lot to surpass that!!Give them time though,they are a good bunch and it will be interesting to see how they fare. As for Sprinter....they knew the potential of what they had very early on,and his hurdling was always a stepping stone.It was purely a case of realising that potential,it don't always happen,this time it did,and how!!! |
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Champagne Fever may prove to be one of the all time Cheltenham Festival greats. Bumper winner 2012, Supreme winner 2013, Arkle winner 2014 and Gold Cup winner 2015. I dont understand why people think the running plans for other Ricci horses take preference over a two time Festival winner. I actually think the 2013 Arkle is made for CF and looking at AP betting below I cant see anything that can get near to him. Looks a great AP bet at 8/1. Grandouet and ROR will stay hurdling. Upsie never been to Festival. Annie P DN Mares. Melodic Rendezvous Supreme. Oscar Whisky surely heading to Jewson. CF looks a shoe-in ! All looks so simple eh !
 Favourites:Champagne Fever (8), Grandouet (10), Rock On Ruby (10), Upsie (12), Annie Power (16), Melodic Rendezvous (16), Oscar Whisky (16), Puffin Billy (16), River Maigue (16), Un Atout (16), Chatterbox (20), Defy Logic (20), Irish Saint (20), Pique Sous (20), Mallowney (25), Rebel Fitz (25), Sametegal (25), Steps To Freedom (25), Taquin Du Seuil (25), Une Artiste (25) , Red Devil Boys (33), Ubak (33) |
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Champagne Fever 8/1 paddy now Fab price
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March is a long way off and he has to get there but Champagne Fever is rightly favourite and 8/1 seems a very fair price. He has the stamp of a steeplechaser and races prominantly which should help avoid any hard luck in running. I've had a few quid with PP. My main worry is the 'Willie' factor. This horse will stay further and it is not beyond the realms of possibility that he has bought something from France for Ricci which he might consider better suited for this race. Suppose that's one of the reasons he's 8/1......
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Another might be cos we are in August,we don't know the opposition and how good they may jump a fence,and we don't know how he will jump a fence.
All in all,i don't think 8 is value at all to be honest. |
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He did at least win a maiden point in his first ever race budd. No comparison to jumping fences over the minimum trip on a Grade 1 track I know but at least he has done it. Many of the other leading fancies haven't. Given his Cheltenham form and his obvious liking for better ground, what price do you think he should be at this stage?
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To be honest I aint really thought much about the Arkle mate, normally wait a bit and see whats definitely going fencing and then see them jump.
For me to be interested in backing him this early I would want at least double his current price. Guess that means I wont be backing him yet!! Lets say he comes out and wins his first chase and jumps well,what price would he be then? shorter than 8?,yeh,but how much shorter?? |
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16/1 is dreamboat stuff budd. You may well be proved right but to put it in perspective, Sprinter Sacre was only 10/1 for the Arkle before his first race over fences, 6/1 before he demolished Peddlars Cross at Kempton and his chance at the start of that season wouldn't have been as obvious as that of CF.
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Well that's my thoughts mate.
Just think anyone taking 8 right now is mad. Time will tell as always. |
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Nurse...nurse!!
 This horse will jump fences for fun. WPM was thinking of taking him straight over fences last season (like Florida Pearl) and was apparently succesfully schooled over them before they decided on a novice hurdle campaign. Bigger issue for me is what race. Despite having a high crusing speed, CF is very stoutly bred and will definitely stay a trip. If he hadn't run in the Supreme, his other target (apparently) was the Bartlett. Most of the top trainers avoid the RSA like the plague but Willie has never had a problem with it. Maybe PP know something! |
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Champagne Supernova overrated had News Years Eve in 2nd in the bumper in 2011 what has he done? Caught everybody out with a gutsy run from the front in the Supreme Novices in 2012 can't see him getting it that easy again.
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gut feeling is that he's more of a stayer
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The New One and Jezki were also behind Champagne Fever in the bumper so I wont be using New Years Eve as a guide to the form.
For what its worth I think the horse is tailormade for an Arkle and remember Ruby saying something along the lines of a strong run 2m is needed to see CF at his best |
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He may well be tailor made for the race....but then again.
Maybe others will be tailor made as well,who knows?? Its the price and its value at this stage that is the subject here,and imo 8 right now aint value. Far too many unknowns for it to be,and far too many months till the race. |
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Just because CF sees 2 miles out very well doesn't mean he's necessarily crying out for further. I think he's a very, very good 2 miler and holding off My Tent or Yours in the Supreme is, (imo of course), top drawer 2 mile form. I see no reason not to go down the Arkle route with him.
With regard to price...well you've got an absolute Festival specialist with a heart as big as his head who is made to jump a fence and has the best hurdle form of any of the potential novice chasers. I think 8s is more than fair, even tempting when you look at those around him in the antepost market. 12/1 Upsie?! WTF is Upsie?! As for 16s, definite dreamland imo. |
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Agree Joist. Trouble is both the owner and the trainer may have another contender. I don't think you'll see him early either, which keeps us all guessing.
I'm in...I think 8/1 is very fair at this stage and there are some serious question marks against his principal market rivals. |
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umm,i think best hurdle form of the potential nov chasers is open to question, particularly when Oscar Whisky and Rock on Ruby are amongst them!!
Yes it does keep us all guessing ff,thats why I would wait before backing anything my friend. |
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I do agree with Joist though when he says CF is a real Chelt specialist, and he is a horse I like a lot.
Whenever he races there I would have him on my side, but just not yet. |
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When I look at market it seems that this race could cut up a lot....for instance the 2 budd mentions well Rock On Ruby stays hurdling so trainer says and surely Oscar Whiskey will end up in the Jewson as Henderson keeps sayin 2.5m is his trip
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Rock On Ruby is staying over hurdles this season.
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Stormey1 was quicker off the mark
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yeh,they were mentioned as potential chasers chaps, no more than that.
But it does prove that really at this early stage we don't know trainers plans that well, and when Mullins is involved we have to be a lot nearer March before anything definite is known!! |
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Oscar Whisky is interesting as to where he goes this season coming.
Yes,his distance over hurdles was around 2 and half and it could be the same over fences. If he goes chasing,personally I would give him a crack at the Arkle, hes classy enough I feel and if he jumps he has to be a threat on his hurdle form. There has been plenty of stayers taking in the Arkle as a novice over the years. Whatever happens, I just hope Hendo don't try him over 3m again, whether hurdles or fences. |
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I thought Oscar was looking a shade lost towards end of last season.
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Chatterbox/Sizing Rio are two i'll be hoping make up into Arkle horses.
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With oscar whiskey I'm wondering whether he's another of these "hurdlers" who've been sent chasing because the games up for them over the smaller obstacles rather than the proper chasing types that are sent fencing as soon as possible.
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Imo his trainer has made a right pigs ear with Oscar.
Should have left him at races around 2 and half,and only gone to the festival for a soft ground Champion Hurdle. He could still do that. as imo hes probably the best around at his distance and hes a threat over 2m on soft. Still,if he can jump a fence,then nowt wrong with going chasing,and as long as hes as good as he was before his trainer took him out of his comfort zone,then he can still compete in top races with success. |
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duffy - spot on. He is 8 so if he was a real Chaser he would have been Chasing before now. Clutching at straws if he goes Chasing this season. Peddlers Cross anybody ?
I am sticking to my earlier post on this thread. I think CF is a great AP bet at 8/1. |
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Moscow Flyer started chasing quiet late,think he was 8 when he won the Arkle.
Don't think its that simple to say just cos hes 8 he aint a real chaser,thats still young enough. It may turn out to be clutching at straws,guess that depends if he has jumped a fence at home yet,he may be a natural for all we know. Having said that,the way hes been trained last couple of seasons suggests you may be right Hb,like I said earlier-pigs ear by Hendo imo. Still,like I say hes 8,and as long as he aint been affected by his campaigning,hes still young enough. Fascinating to see what happens with him,theres no doubt hes classy on his day. |
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Thinking about it, I would be tempted to change stable if he were mine.
Might do him the world of good. |
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Moscow started his novice chase campaign as a 7yo. OW will be 9 next March and you can't help but think that Hendo will have preferred contenders for this crown - Grandouet?
OW is bred to jump fences and he doesn't have many miles on the clock. Be interesting to see how he fares. |
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yeh,i thought he won the Arkle at 8 ff.
Yep,Grandouet is another that could well figure if he jumps,aint quiet reached the heights many thought he would over hurdles.But his best form aint too shabby though. |
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I would not say he cant be a decent Chaser but if Chasing was really his game my thinking is he would have been Chasing before now. My old man always told me if they spend more than one season hurdling after novices then they are hurdlers. There are always a few exceptions but generally that guidance has served me well. The other thing I would take in to consideration before following Oscar Whisky is that maybe his powers are on the wane. He was always considered the number one 2.5mile hurdler and won the Aintree G1 in 2011 and 2012 really well but 2013 he was well beaten by three horses. Those two World Hurdles over 3m might have had a lasting negative effect. As you may have gathered I am not planning to follow OW over fences...............now watch him sluice up in the Arkle/Jewson leaving Champagne Fever and my AP bet in his wake !!
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yeh,i thought he won the Arkle at 8 ff.
Yep,Grandouet is another that could well figure if he jumps,aint quiet reached the heights many thought he would over hurdles.But his best form aint too shabby though. He was 8 budd but 7 the previous autumn when he started his chasing career. MF was also something of a freak, probably not showing his best over fences until he was about 10! I agree with NG about OW - seems to be on the wane - but he hasn't had a lot of racing and Hendo might just work the oracle with him. |
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Using an exception (Moscow Flyer) to counter a generally strong rule/trend is pretty dangerous/silly imo. IMO, I couldn't back Oscar Whisky until he proves he's still up for the game and his age would definitely concern me against younger, more obviously scopey horses, but a rapidly run 2 miles could be definitely up his street.
Budd, with regard to CF having the best form of any potential novice chasers, perhaps I should have clarified but I thought it was obvious given that this is a thread about the Arkle, that I meant Arkle contenders  ROR stays hurdling, OW many question marks and unlikely to run here imo, Grandouet one of the most overrated horses around imo, and then we're scratching around to contenders really. Of course, some will come out of the woodwork but I do think 8/1 CF is fair. |
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yeh,i aint disagreeing with you mate,i aint best pleased with his campaign over the last 2 seasons,as you may have guessed.He could well be on the wane for the reasons you state.
I have had a small wager on the races hes entered in,all at big prices,purely cos hes a big favourite of mine,and I know at his best hes a real goodun. I also agree with what yer Dad told you,but as you say their are exceptions,and I really hope hes one. If he jumps and hes back to his consistent form he had,he will be exciting. Lots of iffs in this game!! Also I still would not rule out a Churdle for him if it were soft ground,if they chose to stay hurdling. |
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no worries Joist,i knew what you meant,i was just looking at oddschecker and looking at the hurdlers who potentially may go chasing.
8 may prove to be fair mate,we shall have to wait and see. |
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Yep, either way, it makes a very nice change to talk about the Arkle in August
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budd - agree a soft going Champion Hurdle and I would be with him too..........
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The way I saw the Mullins horses at the end of last season was un atout for the arkle, champagne fever for the jewson and pont alexandre for the RSA........... Obviously I know things could change now with pont picking up an injury but I can't see willie wanting to run un atout and champagne against each other at the festival and un atout looked like a 2 mile chaser in the making last season to me!!!
I want to back champagne but am just not convinced he will go for the arkle especially as willie has used the jewson before for quality horses and the fact it's now a grade 1 is the race still massively inferior to the arkle??? |