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The Don Cossack fan club

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By:
impossible123
When: 29 Dec 15 21:40
RTR ran a decent race in the 2015 CGC despite ground conditions turning against him on the day, but he was no match for Coneygree and Djakadam, a horse he again finished behind in the Punchestown Gold Cup six weeks later.

I do concur RTR would be a good contender in the Ryanair, with or without the participation of Vautour, a more probable runner to me in the CC despite Mullins having UDS but of different ownership.

Don Poli, despite his latest customary workmanlike victory, will run in the CGC, if sound, along with 1st string Don Cossack.
By:
Eeternaloptimist
When: 29 Dec 15 22:32
What do you mean no match? Djakadam eventually got ahead of him about 20 yards from home and RTR was eased in the last few strides. The ground was plenty soft enough and his season had not been geared towards that specific race. No way would I even consider any other race for the horse. Neither the slow coach Don Poli or Don Cossack who is 0/2 at Cheltenham would strike me as having any greater a chance than a horse which ran so well in the race last year especially as he isn't going to be harassed up front by Coneygree this year.
By:
buddeliea
When: 30 Dec 15 06:14
Yeh he ran really well on ground that would have been against him showing his best. He still got pretty close to winning,and given better ground he is bang there again,and is one that could win the race.
I am concerned they may drop him in distance though cos he was very impressive last time,just never know with owners!!
But for me he deserves another go if the ground suits him better this time.
Think this will run and run till quiet late and the going may decide.
By:
impossible123
When: 30 Dec 15 08:19
Road To Riches ran well in the CGC despite adverse ground conditions, nevertheless Djakadam finished further in front of Road To Riches in the Punchestown Gold Cup six weeks later - the winner was Don Cossack, the mount of Paul Carberry and not Brian Cooper.
By:
wellchief
When: 30 Dec 15 10:47
That Punchestown form isn't work a carrot. An end of season race, with over the top horses. If you use that race, Cue Card should be 50's for the Gold Cup, not 5's.
By:
timtin
When: 30 Dec 15 11:34

Dec 30, 2015 -- 10:47AM, wellchief wrote:


That Punchestown form isn't work a carrot. An end of season race, with over the top horses. If you use that race, Cue Card should be 50's for the Gold Cup, not 5's.


Well more exactly 33s when starting the season, winning the Betfair Chase and GC brought him to 5s. So you're wrong, that form is actually worth about the same or more than the GC itself and you can see it in the prices: Don 5s,  Djakadam 4s and RTR 20s.

By:
wellchief
When: 30 Dec 15 11:40
Don't get your point to be honest. It's not worth a carrot because it was an end of season race that has no bearing on this season whatsoever.
By:
timtin
When: 30 Dec 15 12:33
but the market says it has. the market is made up by punters. Don wouldn't be 5/1 without his end of season form. Djakadam and RTR were given a break, while Don was also at Aintree so saying it has no bearing is incorrect as Mullins has 2 things in mind for the season: Cheltenham and Punchestown. You can be sure his horses will give all during those festivals.
By:
Eeternaloptimist
When: 30 Dec 15 12:47
It's impossible to qualify or quantify how much Cheltenham took out of any one individual horse or how much the onset of summer had on different horses. I wouldn't be basing my Cheltenham thoughts on what happened at Punchestown nearly in to May on a completely different course.
By:
wellchief
When: 30 Dec 15 12:53
How people choose to read the form of those races is up to them, and the Gold Cup market in the summer was influenced by them, but the market isn't always correct. The market was wrong in the summer because it woefully underestimated Cue Card, Saphir de Rheu etc.

They were all primed for their big days in March, not April. If people want to bet in Cheltenham based on Punchestown form that is entirely up to them, but I don't.

I don't think the form of that race is worth anything. Cue Card has made up over a dozen lengths with Don Cossack. Djakadam and Road to Riches both impressive in their only run this season.

I'd have Djakadam as slightly ahead of RTR, but not by anywhere near the distance they were apart at Punchestown because that wouldn't be their true running in my opinion, and I think that market has them too far apart.
By:
wellchief
When: 30 Dec 15 12:54
* and overestimated Saphir Du Rheu that should have said.
By:
duffy
When: 30 Dec 15 17:00
The market did not underestimate Cue Card in the summer, it was based on events to that date, subsequent events have altered that, to say it was under-estimated on the basis of events yet to come would be the same as taking the price of any maiden for the 2,000 guineas and then when it goes off 6/4 on the day turn round and say that the 33's antepost before its debut was under-estimating it.

Cue Card's price in the summer was based on the fact that he was a horse that had question marks over him at the GC trip and had health issues and when fit again was going to be faced with a GC looking to be one of the best for years certainly in terms of strength in depth.

Not sure how SDR comes into the argument because the market in the summer probably over-estimated his chances on the Aintree run .......I was suckered into him on that one too!!
By:
wellchief
When: 30 Dec 15 17:28
All I'm saying is you can't use RTR vs Djakadam as reliable form from Punchestown.  Forgetting the issue of what prices the horses were, I don't think that was their true running, their true running was in the Gold Cup imo.

A lot of water has passed under the bridge since that race, some have improved, some have dropped out, so I don't see the relevance of it in relation to the Gold Cup this year. That's why I said, if we're going to keep harping back on to that race, we might as well forget what's happened this year and put Cue Card back to 33's or whatever he was.
By:
cyclops
When: 31 Dec 15 09:52
wellchief, Cue Card hasn't made up any ground on Don Cossack. The latter fell and none of us know how the last two fences would've played out. DC had moved from two lengths behind Cue Card three out to marginally ahead two out. Not was Cue Card primed for March - he wasn't going to run from some way out if memory serves.
I have no idea why Punchestown form is being crabbed. Djakadam run an absolute blinder in a fast run race. It was only his fourth race of the season at a meeting Mullins targets and where he excels. He jumped brilliantly and looked the likely winner until outstayed/outspeeded by Don Cossack. R to R had had a longer campaign but also ran a fine race and the distance between him and Djakadam was just a few lengths different from Cheltenham. Would appear absolutely rock solid form to me, on ground more akin to what most Gold Cups are run on than the 2015 version.
Of course, there are horses who peak at Cheltenham and fail to produce their form afterwards, but the Punchestown Gold Cup was run at electric pace, none of the "wrong" horses got in the picture and, in my view, was the best staying chase of the season. To choose to discard that form is, of course, your prerogative, but I see no reason why anyone would do so, other than an ingrained aversion to post Cheltenham form supported by no evidence.
By:
scooby91
When: 31 Dec 15 10:21
Don Cossack is 5/1 with PP for gold cup and 11/2 is the best price available across the board.
Yet some genius at PP has gone 6/1 for don cossack in the to win any race market.
By:
wellchief
When: 31 Dec 15 11:40
Cyclops, Cue Card was first beaten by Don by 26 lengths, then it was 15 and then it was at least a 1 or 2 length win/defeat either way. If that's not making up ground with Don Cossack I have no idea what is!!!

My problem with Don C, is in my opinion he has had three big races were all the opposition were primed for that day, ie it was their big mid/end of season target. They are the RSA, the Ryanair and the King George, and he is 0/3 in them. All of his other races are end of season races or prep runs.

I'm not doubting he is classy but that 0/3 stat would worry me. I know you'll say he was travelling well in the RSA, hampered in the Ryanair and fell when staying on in the KG, but that's three excuses now.

Re the Punchestown race, sorry, but as much as I love Aintree and Punchy, it does really enter my mind when backing for Cheltenham. Too many of the big runners at Cheltenham run below par. There are too many "freak" results, making it hard to decipher what is an end of season race and what is genuine Cheltenham clues.
By:
wellchief
When: 31 Dec 15 12:05
Should say "doesn't really" enter my mind.

Ps: don't want to knock DC. I just feel he tends to have an excuse for all his runs were everyone is absolutely primed for that day. The Punchestown run without doubt made him go up in my estermation, but yet another failure in the King George has brought him back down a notch for me.

To finish first, first you have to finish. Any horse can fall, but off the top of my head, he has a lot more non finishes than any of his main rivals.
By:
Eeternaloptimist
When: 31 Dec 15 16:28
That one race in the Ryanair is what I keep coming back to. He smashed them over a furlong shorter at Aintree but yet at Cheltenham he got squeezed out two from home by comparatively average hoses which he should have been 20 lengths clear of. Ah people say but he made a mistake at the top of the hill. Well yes. So he fell on his other previous visit and made a howler in the Ryanair. Not really a recommendation in my book.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 31 Dec 15 19:11
The Don imo is just an unlucky horse that will click once in a big un. Whether that be this coming CGC or not i don't know but that's my tuppence worth in this great thread!

Never been a huge fan of either horses, but head on block at this stage in the season and the 2 i think wins the 2016 CGC is either Cue Card or Don Poli Wink
By:
cyclops
When: 13 Jan 16 23:13
Us fans can only hold our breath tomorrow and hope that all goes smoothly. Nothing less than a flawless win will do.
The main hope is that Cooper at last finds a real rhythm and clicks with The Don, something that has generally eluded him so far.
With plenty of pace likely from Rubi Light and, possibly, Mount Colah, there should be no problem in it being falsely run but I hope Cooper allows him to settle into his jumping and, if he wants to go faster, allows him to do so as the race progresses rather than checking him and asking him to pop away.
Win or lose, I'm pleased he's running and that Elliott's not shying away from asking him to put the memory of the King George behind him. Interesting that Paddy Brennan today all but admitted that he thought The Don had him cooked at Kempton.
By:
timtin
When: 14 Jan 16 14:26
great run after just 2 weeks since the KG, he's the lazy one just doing enough at times but finishing off very strongly so the GC will be the perfect match.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 14 Jan 16 14:43
Great run

Really?! Thought he ran very lazily, and whilst his stamina won him the race comfortably enough, I was a bit disappointed.
By:
impossible123
When: 14 Jan 16 14:46
Considering the race was so soon after the King George plus an inadequate trip of 20f it was a good run; I'd like to think Don Cossack jumped better when the pace quickened despite it needed cajoling at times; a good prep for Cheltenham, just two months away.
By:
Jb23
When: 14 Jan 16 14:56
I was quite pleased with that run as an ante post backer of him. Personally believe that sometimes the ceilings on some peoples expectations are too hight. Trip and ground both completely wrong and he's still won by a distance going away. What more do you want?

I think he is turning into an absolute boat. Runs lazily, jumps economically & stays allday. Gold Cup winners dont travel on the bridle for 3m. Hopefully Davy is on him in the Gold Cup. Personally don't think he is a massively easy ride & subsequently Cooper doesn't get the best tune out of him.
By:
scooby91
When: 14 Jan 16 15:00
The trip may of been a bit shorter than ideal for wounded warrior too. But he's beat wounded warrior there further than don poli has beat him in 3 attempts. I looked on twitter after the race and seen that people thought he was dissapoint. 
Only just watched the race now myself and i was dreading watching it, but I'm actually pleasent suprised with that run, I know cooper had to give him a few smacks but he woke up and came clear nicely for me. You know he's always going to run all the way to the line, you'll always have a chance in a gold cup if you can find that much off the bridle. Because everything else will no doubt be off the bridle 2 from home.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 14 Jan 16 15:00
Im not saying it was a bad run. Just didnt think it was great thats all.

Did absolutely nothing more than he should have done. Appreciate that might sound negative, but his laziness does worry me a bit as a GC backer. The GC might be a different kettle of fish, but he still cant afford to get too far behind down the hill and off the last bend imo.
By:
CheltenhamRoar
When: 14 Jan 16 15:05
A race that's left us with more questions than answers in all honesty,
Defo needs some sort of headgear, cheek pieces might do the trick.
By:
impossible123
When: 14 Jan 16 15:20
I don't think Don Cossack liked his pilot - the chemistry is lacking - a tweak is necessary in my opinion.
By:
cyclops
When: 14 Jan 16 15:35
So now we have two lazy ones - Don Poli and Don Cossack - and four freewheelers in Djakadam, Vautour, Cue Card and Road to Riches.
I can't say I'm surprised that Elliott is mentioning cheekpieces; here and at Kempton he hit some flat spots and was idling now and again at Down Royal. I'd hate to see him (visually) in those things but perhaps they're needed now.

Certainly not his most impressive run, though he was bolting away from them at the end.

impossible123 hits the nail on the head, as I, and others, have alluded to before. Could Cooper choose Don Poli,(or R to R?) leaving a revived Carberry to partner Don Cossack? Probably not, but his jumping (though fine today but seldom at his most fluent)never seems to sparkle under Cooper, yet always does under others.

I'm seldom one to knock jockeys but this just seems to be a pairing that doesn't bring the best out of either of them.
Inconceivable that Gigginstown will jock off their retained man but I do think we'd see the real Don with Carberry back on board.

I remember McCoy saying he was a tricky ride, with the bit needing to be high in his mouth. I'm not a horseman but perhaps Cooper just doesn't have the skills to excel on this horse. Watch the Punchestown Gold Cup under Carberry and its poetry in motion. This horse is a fantastic jumper but needs the right jockey.
By:
impossible123
When: 14 Jan 16 15:38
Gordon Elliot revealed Don Cossack will be equipped with cheekpieces at Cheltenham - he worked in cheekpieces the other day and flew in them!
By:
timtin
When: 14 Jan 16 15:41
not great Great, but great as in promising for the GC considering his running style, how he keeps to himself, how he finds more and more when required, how he handled a shorter trip after a hard race just 2 weeks ago, how he handled soft ground, it was great to see how he responded, the fact that he didn't fell erasing the bad memory and how he lengthened at the end when asked. 2 months break and this run had all positives for a GC bid, as did the KG bar the fall.
By:
miltons sophie
When: 14 Jan 16 15:42
cooper 4/6 to ride DP and 5/4 to ride DC with betfair
By:
blackballed1
When: 14 Jan 16 15:50
I wouldn't ever use Don poli for like for like runs using winning distances! He only ever usually does enough to win.
By:
cyclops
When: 14 Jan 16 15:52
Very interesting miltons.
By:
cyclops
When: 14 Jan 16 15:53
Where's that market miltons?
By:
miltons sophie
When: 14 Jan 16 15:56
oddschckr 3rd tab, ist = winner 2nd = top 3 finish 3rd = bryan cooper ride - price with sprts bk
By:
jasey
When: 14 Jan 16 15:58
Why should that run have been great.
If Don jumps well he wins by a few lengths.
By:
impossible123
When: 14 Jan 16 16:06
Copper was 1.9 to ride either of the Don's the other day.
By:
HaylingBilly
When: 14 Jan 16 16:51
Do people think whichever horse Cooper picks will be Gigginstown best win option and Number 1 ?
By:
impossible123
When: 14 Jan 16 17:12
Nope, Cooper chose RTR instead of DC in the Punchestown Gold Cup 2015.
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