This is the Don Cossack fan club thread.I am not bothered about any other horse that lines up in the GC.The fact is every horse needs Don Cossack to fall or blunder really badly to win this race..
3 mile 2 and a fast pace (something DC has never had)will help Don get rolling early and then he will be unstoppable when he hits top gear.
DC fans that have not had a tickle on him yet are in a good position,his price should stay the same or may get bigger esp if BC picks DP

Use your eyes and you would also know this.

Don would have put 3 lengths between himself and CC in KG.Cue Card may come second but can't see how he can beat Don.

all conjecture jasey he might have hit the last and faded into 3rd ....then again ............

Punchestown Gold Cup was run at a great pace and he's never looked so comfortable. Yes, jasey, that's exactly what he needs. The Irish small field, heavy ground, dawdles really don't play to his strengths.
Not certain myself that the mooted cheekpieces should be applied; if he gets a fast run race, I don't see idling as a problem. However, Elliott is a fine trainer and I'm sure he'll call it right.

STS - agree that OFB is the intriguing outsider for me - dont think he is that dissimilar to DP in terms of profile (both were obviously going to improve for a fence and both looked after somewhat over hurdles and obviously both rsa winners) and definitely has potential to improve significantly - which he will clearly have to do - not impossible though and i for one was very impressed with his jumping lto - DP isnt the only horse in the race that is tough - this fella can tough it out too - remember he won the rsa without travelling or jumping that well and BG made a point of saying how bad he traveled that day compared to previous runs - i do doubt he would be good enough but just hypothetically - if he and DP were going head to head up the hill i for one would think thats a 50/50 call - sorry jasey know its a DC thread but just wanted to piggy back on sts post.

Throwing the reins around like he does can't help the horses balance going in to a fence.

I didn't see AP doing what Cooper does at Aintree which I'd argue was his best performance thus far.

cooper has gone backwards since the fall. With Don Cossack, i think its a case of square pegs and round holes when it comes to trying to make him a Cheltenham horse.

what will the excuse be in March? Blinkers/Jockey/Ground/Distance/pace of the race....

I think they have used these all already.

The Gold Cup is discussed endlessly on other threads, some fascinating, some bizarre. Four years after starting this thread, and with all meaningful Gold Cup trials likely to be behind us, I thought a summary of Don Cossack's chances might be appropriate, without bringing in the rest. He has taken supporters through highs and lows, with the former very much dominating the latter over the past two seasons. I won't claim to lack bias but will make some effort towards objectivity.

Don Cossack has proved he's top class. The highest rated chaser both in terms of official ratings and Racing Post ratings. The lofty marks he's attained - no RPR of less than 175 in his last six runs, five efforts of 178 plus - show class and consistency. The latter stat equals Denman's tally of 178+ performances and exceeds Long Run's.

He's also proved toughness; eighteen chases and counting in less than three seasons, and he's run in Grade 1's at the three Spring festivals two years in a row.

He's versatile with regard to ground, distance and course, winning in heavy ground over three miles as well as destroying a fair field over two and a half on good ground at Aintree.

He has also been ridden differently, according to conditions, making all a couple of times, more usually being held up, but recently being more prominent.

He's developed a tremendous burst of finishing speed, finishing every race he's completed in the last two seasons considerably quicker than his opponents; nothing has ever gained on him on the run-in over that period.

His jumping (more to follow) at his best is fluent and effortless (see Aintree or Punchestown replays).

While he has never been asked to race over 3m2f, most seem happy that his stamina, which many doubted previously, is now his strong suit.



So what are the negatives?

Well, the King George was a race I still can't work out in respect of his performance. I believe he would have won it (yes, I know you've got to jump to win)as he had begun to get on top of Cue Card. But, throughout the race, I wasn't happy at any stage after he walked through the last on the first circuit and then had to be ridden to maintain position after the tight bend soon after. I thought he could well pull up and from then on he seemed to run in snatches (though Brennan keeping him in a pocket certainly didn't help). Round the final bend, a place seemed all he could hope for, though we all know what happened. It could easily have turned out to be the best performance of his career, but it was uncomfortable viewing.

So where does that leave us?

I won't harp on, because my thoughts are aired earlier in this thread, but Bryan Cooper is the only jockey to have ridden him under whom he's looked anything other than an excellent jumper. And twice, in the KG and in last season's Ryanair, he's found himself in the wrong place on him. He's a fair jockey and may click one day with Don Cossack but, on the evidence so far, and bearing in mind his two stellar performances came under McCoy and Carberry, I think the Cooper factor is a significant negative. Eddie O'Leary said the choice of ride in the Gold Cup would be Cooper's. The bookies think he'll ride Don Poli. Whether that would be under orders, because he acknowledges he doesn't get the best out of Don Cossack, or because he prefers Don Poli, we would probably never know.

The issue of suitability to Cheltenham is not one that bothers me. As Gordon Elliott said, he was travelling like a dream when falling six out in the RSA and had anything but a smooth passage in the Ryanair. I think Cheltenham should be right up his street.

Laziness? Well, this first surfaced when he won the Drinmore as a novice. Us supporters were puzzled, as he had always been such a strong travelling horse until then. There was little sign of needing to be woken up throughout his triumphant 2014/15 season and both the Aintree and Punchestown wins were characterised by him travelling supremely smoothly throughout. In the former, McCoy gave him a few boots before the home turn and he powered away, while Carberry did the same after three out in Ireland and he was back on the bridle in a matter of strides. However, this season has seen the tendency develop. At Down Royal, he seemed, in Cooper's words, half asleep early in the race. Kempton I've covered and then, at Thurles, I saw Cooper giving him a flick down the neck before the second and then having to roust him against inferior opposition for quite some way before asserting.
What can be said is that laziness has never cost him a race to this point, though it does seem to be becoming more pronounced. Once he decides to engage top gear, he's off and away. And laziness never stopped Big Buck's.
If I were the trainer, I'd probably not reach for the cheekpieces. Elliott said Don Cossack "flew" when working in them. But is lighting him up a good idea? I think Elliott is a fine trainer and will make the right decision but it would introduce an imponderable. The Racing UK team have been screaming for them to be added and think they missed a trick by not putting them on at Thurles. We shall see.

I've come around to the view that Don Cossack is a better horse on good going. It may well be that he jumps better out of it and travels better and, to be fair to Cooper, he's never had the opportunity to ride him under these conditions, except this season's debut run where he jumped better for him than any other time. While those conditions will also suit who I consider to be his main rival in Vautour, I think they would deliver his best chance.

If Don Cossack runs his race and is beaten by a better horse, I will be surprised and saddened but, I hope, gracious. So be it. I happen to believe he's the best horse in the race, (with the possible exception of Vautour, and he has himself to beat.

Excellent, as always, Cyclops.
I'd not be as forthright in my criticism as John, but he does raise some interesting points.
My concern is that out of a very long and well written post, you've glossed over most punters main worry, his festival record.

Since when has a horse placing at the festival been a negative.

In a very poor renewal of the Ryanair imo, is that ok to say that Desmond? my wrist is still sore, you'd think I'd be used to that by now!

Fair points chaps. The Festival record seems to be the main negative for most, and that's something we'll have to agree to disagree about for now.

slower, you say he's blotted his copybook twice on the big stage, but he's also scored twice on big stages. As for the KG, I don't know he'd have won, but I do think a look at the replay, and knowing what then happened to Vautour, suggests it was very likely. You diss the Aintree form, and that's your prerogative, but it looked competitive beforehand and his rating of 181 for the race is based on every other horse in the race running between 5lbs and a couple of stone below par. He could have been given a 190 but you can see why the ratings people would have baulked at that.

You're right to correct me about Cooper riding him on good ground in the RSA, though, until he fell, which didn't seem to be Cooper's fault, he had jumped really well, so inconclusive, I would say.

One final point, and this is going to sound defensive, although it's not meant to be; even if DC fails to deliver his best in the Gold Cup, would that diminish his other achievements? Desert Orchid and Kauto Star, to name but two, were not as effective at Cheltenham as elsewhere (dramatically so in the former instance) yet their stellar reputations remain in tact. Hopefully, whatever the result in March, Don Cossack has plenty more big days ahead.

Cyclops, I did a form study on his RP figures a few pages back on this thread and yes they could've easily given him a 5-10 pounds higher rating. Cue Card hasn't improved that much after the operation, he just settles better which allows him to get the 3 mile trip, they met over 2 and half at Aintree and CC even in his current season form there's not much evidence to suggest he would've gone closer than 10 lengths from Don that day. He's easily the best horse in the race and its only a matter of time until he puts the Chelt record straight.

Its not just you john. Its a fact.

As I said I have great respect for you cyclops but at 9yo DC is never going emulate Kauto or Dessie in the amount of big races they won. Plus all three horses you have mentioned won at the festival which DC is yet to do. Anyway keep the faith

Another chink in his armour Harvester when the going gets tough.

Everyone to their own but personally don't think stats will beat a horse but that's a whole other talking point and a hornets nest I'm not going to stir up.

Sorry. His chance rather than record.