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didnt think DC's jumping was particularly impressive and i'm starting to think that, when it's a genuinely top level race, his jumping will come under pressure and increase the likelihood of him falling.
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And he may be told, particularly if Gigginstown share the thought that he and DC are a little incompatible. Which slightly contradicts my earlier point that he won't be jocked off but if two of the Gigginstown horses line up with similar chances in the betting, perhaps the choice won't be entirely his?
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He is their retained jockey so surely he gets to ride whichever one he wants. If not, what message does that send to Cooper. I believe he will get the choice and will ride whichever one he thinks has best win chance and it will shorten considerably off the back of it.
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the owner pays the bills,i would think that he would have the final say if he has a couple in the race
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I think straw clutching comes to mind when trying to pin the fault on the jockey. I understand that the likes of Poli and Tidal Bay in the past may be difficult rides, but Don Cossack isn't like that.
I think he simply hits flat spots and his jumping comes under pressure. I know he's just had a hard race in the King George but I thought he might have done it a little easier today. Djakadam won over 2m4 this year against much better opposition with the bare minimum of fuss. |
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Be interesting if RTR beats DP next time out!!
FWIW I think he will,think he's a better horse then DP. Cooper or whoever decides on riding plans will have some decision then. |
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I thought he ran like he usually does when he doesn't come down - ok. If he comes off the bridle early at Cheltenham i don't think he will win a Gold Cup. There are too many horses to put pace into the race and get him out of his comfort zone. I think he will make mistakes with the pressure applied. I would take Don Poli over this one every day. Cooper probably will too. Whether that's a good thing or not for his supporters is open to question. People got carried away with his Aintree run and subsequent end of season efforts.
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DC jumped beautifully in the slipstream of RTR, Djakadam and others in the Punchestown Gold Cup which makes me think a steady and decent pace is necessary something I believe he'll have in the Gold Cup field.
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For what my opinion is worth lol I've a feeling the horses we should be looking more closely at are the ones not going to have another run between now and the race or who are going to run but will be just out for a school round at 1to something short!
The fact that the likes of dp is going to run against rtr and but to a much lesser extent ofaolains boy v djackadam. Lesser cos I've backed ofaolains boy at 33s cos I think he's over priced and if he was to beat djackadam well talking of cats and pigeons lol. |
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Haven't read comments since yesterday but the clear point to make is that they need to check they had the right Don in the race because if that was the Cossack version then he too is developing that lazy streak!
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Cooper 4/6 DP (Betfair) but 2/1 (PP)
5/4 DC (Betfair) but 1/2 (PP) 10/1 RTR (PP) |
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Defo rides Dom Poli.
Don Cossacks jumping at Cheltenham isn't to be trusted. When he hits a flat spot his jumping comes under pressure. With Vatour being a natural front runner the pace will be strong and can see DC struggling. I expect Dom Poli to be under pressure some way out before running them down from the final fence. |
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Ruby will give Vautour a patient ride to get the GC trip, he won't be anywhere near the leaders. As for Cooper, when you hear him talk about Cossack it's almost certain he'll pick him but of course it may not be his choice same with how it wasn't really STD choice of not riding TNO in the Xmas Hurdle.
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Would have thought Ruby would be riding the current fav and the horse he knows will stay.
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To be honest as.a RTR backer,it would not bother me much if Cooper chose DC(I think he will).
Plenty of decent jockeys will be available,might even get Russell,whose better anyway imo. |
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Been reading this place for 2 or 3 years now and finally decided to get on here, this thread is as good a place to start as anywhere. I'm another one of these that has the incurable festival fever disease and to be fair this is the most knowledgeable place on the internet I've seen for a chat about Cheltenham thus far.
Anyway, there's definitely a Don Cossack love in here alright, just to let people know where I stand I have a tidy treble from way back that includes Don Poli at about his current price, I'll be sticking up for him but will try and remain as unbiased as possible. However I wouldn't give it a second thought about backing Poli over Cossack. DC's last two runs have confirmed to me he won't be winning the Gold Cup. Whoever Bryan Cooper ends up on is no indication and is basically irrelevant, he has no clue which horse has the better chance and neither does anyone else, we can only go off what we've seen on the racetrack and make our own assumptions. But to be honest I'd probably rather someone with experience who's been there and done it like Davy Russell on my mount come race day anyway. Cooper could easily panic and press too hard or not hard enough if he comes under pressure early, and both these two will be the first of the big boys off the bridle for sure. But back to Don Cossack and without wanting to derail the point of discussion it would be hilarious to see how many of those talking him up used to crab The New One for being a horse who ''always has an excuse''. Because that's exactly what Don Cossack is. ''If he jumped the 2nd last he would've won'', ''If he didn't get sandwiched at Cheltenham'', ''If he didn't peck on landing''. The letters I and F on your keyboard must be wearing thin. The fact is he wouldn't have won because he can't jump the bloody fences, he is a stayer granted but this is NH racing and poor jumpers - which Don Cossack is, don't win Gold Cups. He's too sloppy too often and it will cost him. I'm not going to pretend Don Poli doesn't have his faults but he is an excellent jumper. He may not be as spring heeled as Cue Card or Vautour but he rarely makes an error and is very economical at his fences. I think he's quicker than a lot of people give him credit for too but he's just such a lazy sort, a real sloth. If he needs to quicken he can and although it's a different calibre of horse that he faced in the Lexus and the RSA to what it'll be in March he pulls it out when he needs to. |
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the horse who "always has an excuse" doesn't really apply to Don Cossack though, because he has put a couple of performances last season that placed him above all. The excuses used are merely in relation to his form at Cheltenham, and getting boxed on the home straight, making a mistake, pecking on landing is something that can happen to any horse so clearly those that say he's useless at the track are the ones finding excuses to be against him. As for the KG fall, its irrelevant where he would've finished, its only important that for most of the race he was cajoled and lost his position but at the end he was staying on and was passing horses left and right which means the GC extra trip and the slightly easier gallop than at Kempton will play into his strengths.
Don Poli we can assume he's quick, but have we seen that in any of his races? We can assume he pulls it out against this calibre of horses but have we seen him do it previously? With Cossack we know and we have. Even if Poli is a better jumper, Cossack can be just as good with a good jockey or a good ride. Look at his last race and its obvious that when Cooper lets the horse make his own mind he comes in close and loses few lengths but when Cooper asks for one he's flying over them, so now with more experience on him he could give him a good ride and leave behind the miscoordination that they had in the KG. |
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..."which means the GC extra trip and the slightly easier gallop than at Kempton will play into his strengths".. Like it did in his RSA and Ryanair??!
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ha! if only I would have covered that in the same post from which you're quoting. Oh well lost opportunities I guess.
Clearly he won't handle Cheltenham because he once fell and the other time he pecked on landing and got hampered over a short trip. The curse is with The Don at Cheltenham I'm afraid. |
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Satrus Froot, you misunderstand the points made, certainly by myself, timtin and several others. The winner of nine chases in the past season and a half and top rated chaser needs no excuses and you'll find none from me. It was his fault, and no-one else's, that he blundered in the Ryanair, lost his place and then endured a difficult passage. Similarly, at Kempton, he fell. But, in looking at the horse (or any other) speculation about what might have happened is inevitable, concerning the two races in his past 11 that he hasn't won.
My view is that Don Cossack is capable of beating himself, and may do so at Cheltenham, but is the best horse in the race if he gets it all right. "If" surely applies to all the contenders. "If" Djakadam has improved and you can disregard the beating he got from DC at Punchestown. "If" Vaoutour stays. "If" Don Poli can improve a stone and a half on this season's form. "If" Road to Riches gets his going. "If" Cue Card is good enough, can peak again in March and if his previous career form can largely be discarded. Don Cossack has beaten Djakadam 1/1, Cue Card (excluding the fall) 2/2 and Road to Riches 2/2. I would argue there are less "ifs" about him than the rest. If you think he's a poor jumper, watch him at Aintree or Punchestown |
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Lets dissect Don Cossacks form then. Of these plethora of supposed brilliant runs in Grade 1's that have put him above all, (5 Grade 1's), 3 of those have been over 20f. You're calling the Ryanair trip inadequate, yet at the same time raving over his run in the Melling Chase over a furlong and a steep hill less. Can anyone seriously use a Melling Chase at Aintree on a flat track over 2 and a half as a Gold Cup trial? The only horse worth noting was an out of sorts Cue Card who probably wants every inch of 3 miles these days (I'm not calling CC a real stayer but a flat 3 miles is his thing). To me DC's only very good piece of form was his run at Punchestown, I'd also add that I'm another that takes post festival runs for that season with a pinch of salt too. Punchestown he was good, but people are saying because of the close proximity between Djakadam and RTR it was true form, I don't necessarily buy that. If we're talking about lengths then does that make DC 5 and a half lengths a better animal than Coneygree? Certainly not. What makes either Djakadam or RTR enjoy a flat track more than Cheltenham either? They look like hill relishers, particularly Djakadam. It's also very reasonable to believe they've lost a bit of zest after a big Gold Cup battle.
After Aintree and Punchestown we have another three Grade 1's he's won. Two are over 20f and he's beat grand national type Rocky Creek 8 lengths in his 3 mile win this season, Rocky Creek was also on his reappearance where DC has had a run. Not wanting to knock that form as again he has done what he needed to but it's not form that makes you sit up and go WOW, is it? I may understand why this horse has got people talking but when you actually dig down into the bare bones of his form I just feel he's a bit over-hyped, just my opinion anyway. |
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Cyclops, I don't miss the points mate. I am well aware they all have and if to their name. But many on here seem to turn a blind eye to Don Cossacks weaknesses and think he is rock solid, when you can pick holes in him as much as you can Don Poli. Just trying to level the debate out a bit.
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*an if
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Satrus, of course it's your prerogative to cast doubts on the Punchestown form. But then you're introducing an "if", namely that Djakadam and RtR would have performed better "if" they hadn't had a hard race at Cheltenham. I take the opposite view, shared by both the RP and the official handicapper and, yes, that is the main reason for my conviction that he is the best horse in the race.
As for your Don Poli equation, how can you possible say DC has as many holes in him as DP when the latter has yet to race against any horse quoted at less than 100/1 for the Gold Cup and comes out, from his last race, as almost the same horse as First Lieutenant and Foxrock and, in the previous one, as worse than Many Clouds? |
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But we know Don Poli is a different type of horse. He's not something that goes out and wins 20 lengths, it's his style and he does it how he wants to.
And if we're going to share the same view as the official handicapper, lets get it right. The best horse in the race is actually Cue Card, who's currently rated a pound higher than Don Cossack. |
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Unaware that the handicapper had done that. DC 175, Cue Card 172 going into the King George.
We'll have to agree to disagree about Don Poli. The most hyped horse I've known for a while. |
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DC had Copper on board each time it did not win; in my opinion it is the pilot's job to put a horse in the best possible position at any time in the race given known info eg wide of other runners (not unsighted) and not to be sandwiched approaching a fence (esp DC) like Carbeery did in the Punchestown Gpld Cup - if not convinced plz watch the race again; by the way Djakadam and RTR ran to CGC form hence, and in my opinion a good guide to the capability of DC; I also believe the owner of DP would have run the horse in the KG rather than the 'weak' Lexus if its trainer (WP) had targeted it with or without Ruby on board.
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Satrus - when you started your post i was quite optimistic - particulalrly when you wrote that you would try and remain unbiased - and then you actually started to give your opinion - and subsequent opinions - your desire to remain unbiased doesnt appear to have won the day - i get that DC's jumping can be knocked but you like every other DP fan have resorted to exactly the same thing i.e. 'he pulls it out when he needs to' you may be right but if you took an unbiased view you would concede that that is an 'if' as while you may be confident he will he has not yet done this with high 160 and mid 170 rated horses of which there could be 5 or so turn up. And whats more 2 or 3 that could get close to a 180 if they fire on the day.
Racing is all about IFs every time we bet it is about ifs - the reason because we are betting before we know the result and before we know what is about to happen - and as we all know with racing there are many possibilities - one of which if you remain unbiased is that DP may not be able to pull it out against the calibre he will be up against. Anyway - it was good to meet another clairvoyant - there are quite a few on here - at least some of them dont claim to try and remain unbiased |
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my take on it is that there are three horses who have a great chance in the race, DC,CC and vatour and they all have question marks against them for different reasons.
You pays your money and takes your choice, There is some very well informed opinion on here which makes for a very interesting read. The puzzle is what makes this a great race and the answer is no one knows you just form an opinion a from what you have seen and read. For what its worth i find it hard to call but I have backed DC in the ante post market |
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its not often you can back the three highest rated horses entered in a grade 1 and still almost double your money (if one (irrespective of which one)) wins.
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Looking back I may have been talking Don Poli up a bit too much, but I stand by my belief he has no less chance than Don Cossack.
Don Polis main question mark is being outpaced and I was very uncertain on him 4 weeks ago. But my confidence in his chances has increased tenfold ever since Coneygree - the horse who has the ability to take him out of the race - got injured. I love Vautour but if he tries setting a searching gallop it will only come back to bite him on the arse, likewise with Cue Card who we don't know will fully get the trip yet. FWIW, at this stage I see Djakadam as the one to pass, and I have not a penny on him. If anything beats him up the hill they're the new champion. I feel Don Poli just may well have a better chance to do that now Coneygree isn't on the scene, I could be wrong but it's a valid angle to consider. Opinions could change yet though with prep races to come. |
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Satrus_Froot
he's just such a lazy sort, a real sloth With fans like that who needs enemies ![]() |
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Doesn't necessarily have to be a bad thing though does it. He may be the most lazy horse in the race but he's the smartest too.
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Let's hope Don Poli and Road To Riches run in the Irish Gold Cup on 6th February as we'll be a lot wiser by then, here's hoping.
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There has to be an assumption that DP will always consent to eventually put it in, this would be all the more tested against better opposition and notwithstanding that you then have to consider whether he's even good enough because his exploits to date haven't suggested this....6/1 ish...no thanks.
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if you look at the pace of last years race then don poli would stand no chance, it was ran at a really fast pace, no conaegree this year though
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I am going to call it like this, tho i am brave man that i am against all you DP fans
Let's just say this happens ![]() Don Poli get's outpaced so badly in the CGC he's out the back early, being ridden almost struggling to keep on tabs with the 5 or 6 or so leaders and plugs on eventually finishes 3rd-4or5th ![]() ![]() Given his apparent lack of pace early doors, and he only ever 'just does enough' i think the above could just happen! Wouldn't surprise me one iota ![]() |
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^
Agree |
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any greyhound fans remember ballyregan bob v scurlogue champ
- personally am completely unsure myself - so many are so adamant one way or another - beginning to think half of you are much smarter than i am - just nor sure which half ![]() |
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Champ lost sight of the hare,got so far behind......I believe.
Maybe DP will lose sight of the other horses,maybe DP will stay close enough to be able to take a hand in the finish. Who knows?? |