Cheltenham Festival
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The Don Cossack fan club
The Don Cossack fan club
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best priced now at 7/1 so the bookies have not moved him out much at all.
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I think he'd have won, despite the race not going to plan. He was a couple of lengths behind Cue Card three out, but had moved ahead of him when he took off two out. While he'd been ridden for quite a while, Cooper didn't look to have gone for everything and the way we know he takes a while to wind up, I very much doubt Cue Card would have come back at him.
It was a strange race for Don and the point about Cooper and Kempton is a fair one. Brennan kept him away from where he wanted to be and he was on and off the bridle. Perhaps Kempton may not be his ideal course and he certainly wasn't as fluent as he can be, although probably more so than Cue Card. I believe he'd have won the best King George in many years had he stood up, and I think few would doubt that, if he hadn't won, he'd have gone extremely close. It would be good to see him in a quiet prep although Gordon Elliott has said before he'd go straight to the Gold Cup after Kempton. But after a fall like that, I hope they re-consider, assuming, of course, he's fine. Ironically, his Gold Cup chances have probably improved if one agrees with the view that Vautour will probably go for the Ryanair. With Coneygree definitely missing the Gold Cup, it is looking more winnable than it was two weeks ago. Us Don fans have ridden the rollercoaster many times and, while yesterday's fall was devastating, he'll be back. |
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Never really been one of my horses but is now, within all the Vautour chat and dissection of what he did, it's been overlooked by the masses that DC barely went a yard and was far from perfect at many fences and even with Vautour going great guns out in front still found himself in a position where his undoubted stamina began to kick in and started to come IMO to win the race.
He looked every bit like a stayer that simply found things happening a bit too quick for him around Kempton, he fell but in a way I see his chance enhanced with regards the GC....7/1 is generous. |
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The fact that he got outpaced only matters if he got well beat, in the event he has passed a test because he's shown that he possesses the class and stamina to survive on a track that clearly didn't suit him, around Cheltenham, DC won't suffer the same way he did around Kempton and will have the course and distance to utilise his blend of speed and stamina to best effect.
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One of the conclusions we can take from the KG is that Don Cossack is a massive player in the Gold Cup.
Owners look like having three serious contenders.....wonder which will have the first colours!!! |
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I just think I'd prefer him to travel a bit better throughout the race if I'd backed him for the Gold Cup. I don't necessarily think he particularly enhanced his Gold Cup reputation; if he would have stayed at home and beat Don Poli today, he'd be 5/2, but if you're a backer, the 7/1 has to be good (although PP were 12/1 for half an hour after the race).
I just thought it was a tired looking fall and I'm not so sure he would beaten Cue Card (but that's a debate that can go on and on). While it was a fantastic King George, the Gold Cup is up another notch, with Djakadam, Road to Riches and Don Poli to add to the mix, so I don't think he can afford to hit flat spots like that in a race as competitive as that. I don't think he lacks speed, Aintree on good ground is as sharp as they come when he hosed up, so I don't really buy into the track being too sharp. As I said on the Vautour Ryanair thread though, as the GC is an extra 2f than normal, maybe that plays into his and Don Poli's hands more than others? |
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Well it looked to me like he was gonna stay on and probably win the KG,so on that basis for me it's a sign he would be a big player in a Gold Cup.
They would not be going that pace in the Gold Cup I would think, so I would not be too worried re flat spots. |
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Not doubting him for one second for the Gold Cup mate, he is one of about five who can easily win it.
With the build up he was getting and the reputation he was amassing, I was just a tad underwhelmed with the workman like performance, and then a tired looking fall at the end; and I backed the Don as well, despite being keen on CC for the Gold Cup. You may be right re flat spots with no Coneygree in the line up now, but if he does hit them, I doubt he'd recover in the GC. Big Bucks used to always get them, but as he was so far ahead of the rest, it didn't matter too much, but this is a lot closer. I still think there is more to come from Cue Card, with a break now after a hard start to the season. I agree with Cyclops, and I'd like to see Don Cossack in a small chase somewhere after the fall, like the Denman or even something over 2m4f, just to get him back out. Shame Djakadam and RTR are out of the Lexus, so that looks like a penalty kick for Don Poli now, so I wouldn't be surprised if he is the new fav at the end of today. |
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yep,totally agree Chief,one of 5 realistic chances.
Personally I prefer Djak and Cue Card,but would not be at all surprised if DP,DC or RTR won it. I would be if something else did! I have RTR at nice odds,and have Cue Card for the double....not the treble unfortunately!! Am a tad concerned re RTR,not running today(not sure why?),and bit worried they might go Ryanair with him. Yeh,have been looking forward to the Lexus,pretty near a walkover looks to me now. |
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When I first saw DC fall, I thought it might of been tiredness, but having seen it back a couple of times I'm pretty convinced that that wasn't the case. He seemed to be staying on strongly and after he did fall, he got straight back up. Which is not normally a sign of a tied horse.
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Upon further reflection, I'm concerned about Bryan Cooper riding Don Cossack.
I've never felt they particularly gel and yesterday emphasised that. He doesn't seem to jump as well for him as for others - both career falls have come under Cooper as well as his only ever serious mistake in the Ryanair. The two defining races of Don Cossack's career came under McCoy and Carberry, and in both of those he jumped and travelled like a dream. In particular, the Punchestown Gold Cup saw him at a level of imperiousness that has never come about with Cooper riding. Of course, it could be that Cooper rides one of the other Gigginstown horses come March which could give Don Cossack his best chance. Having looked at the KG several times, both at the Channel 4 and Racing UK angles, it puzzles me a little. As pointed out elsewhere, two and a half miles on good ground at Aintree is sharper than three at Kempton, yet at times he seemed to be struggling to go the pace. His error at the last in the home straight first time out, followed by that extremely sharp turn maybe took him out of his rhythm and that, plus Paddy Brennan keeping him boxed in, made life difficult. But the more I look at it, the more he seems to be reeling them in up the straight and this could have ended up being the best performance of his career! I guess the KG asked more questions than it answers, probably for each of the three principals but I, for one, would be mightily relieved if Bryan Cooper opts for Don Poli, perhaps leaving Paul Carberry to renew his partnership with the "real" Don. |
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Won't possibly pick DP, DC is way way classier, and DP has that "fall asleep during race" problem that will cost him dearly in a GC, I dread to think how far back that one would have found himself in a KG before his stamina started to kick in....even against Many Clouds you could see the affliction!!
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saw the affliction again today with DP, 4 mile GC would suit him.
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Mullins was again right, 4m over Aintree fences might be the best way to go with Don Poli. The Don sleeps as well thinking about the GC as Poli sleeps during his races.
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Don poli is a very average horse Imo. He beats nothing by small margins and he'd give me a heart attack every time he runs if you've backed at odds on.
Might be a horse to lay in running when he's being outpaced in the gold cup, because many believe this horse is always going to win no matter how hard he's being ridden or how far the rest are infront. I can't see it what so ever, but he does keep winning. Maybe it's very good placing from willie, because he never seems to come up against anything in form. |
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I wouldn't even want him over 4 miles at Aintree unless it was testing, sure his relative class and stamina would help him greatly, but I could see him getting too far behind before catching up!
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for me DP is one of those horses who is incredibly hard to assess and although i am not a fan i think racing is all the better for horses that dont make it easy for us. There would be no outcome in the GC with him that would surprise me other than him traveling and winning well. I can see him getting woefully outpaced and coming up well short and i can see him grinding his way into contention and winning by a neck. if you put a gun to my head i think the former is more likely but i know if he is there on the day i will have one eye on him during the race hoping that he eventually goes away like a bad smell.
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How fit was he today? He doesn't strike me as a million miles away from a horse like Synchronised but on turning for home that one bounded clear when his stamina came in to play but Don Poli had the mamma and pappa of a job to repel Foxrock and First Lieutenant. Let's also not forget that Synchronised struggled to lay up in the gold cup. If Poli was any closer than 95% fit today I couldn't back him for gold unless the ground was bottomless.
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He's over-rated, Mullins had always been worried about the 3 miles of the RSA precisely for the reasons that we can all see on the track.....he won it well but it looks like a poor renewal now doesn't it.
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You can certainly tell this is The Don Cossack Fan Club. I am the CEO of the Don Poli Fan Club and in my opinion you are all misreading this horse. Lazy b'stard who just does enough. Will beat a 120 horse in the same manner he beats your 175 rated "fall over when the going gets tough" Don Cossack. Don Poli only been beaten twice since winning a maiden hurdle and both times at Punchestown in April end of season runs. Never fallen. Two times festival winner in two of the toughest races at the Festival. He comes good when it matters. Proof in the record books. I do admit at times I think Don Cossack could be a major threat but then I realise he will fall when the going gets tough and I relax again. Happy New Year to all you DC fantasists.........
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Don Poli will beat a 175 rated horse the same as a 120 horse?
An odd statement, given he's never come near one of the former and the 147 horse he beat yesterday was well beaten off that mark in the Hennessy. DC may not win the Gold Cup but his form is in a different league to Don Poli. The latter is the worst priced horse I've ever seen for the Gold Cup and I've emptied my bank accordingly. |
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Fair play to Hayling. He's putting his money where his mouth is. Of course I can't help wondering if it's a case of birds of a feather sticking together seeing as DP is a bit slow.
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cyclops - you are indeed one eyed. What about the 163 rated horse and the two rated 160 he beat yesterday. DC can't be trusted to stay upright. And thats a fact.
Eet - thats a bit harsh. My mum says I'm the smartest son she ever had. The voice of the intellect is a soft one, but it does not rest until it has gained a hearing. Just trying to broaden the horizon of all you one eyed DC fantasists sitting on this thread deluding each other. Your boy aint good enough. My view, Don Poli and Vautour 1st and 2nd in Gold Cup. Remember me come March and remember I tried to lead you all from your darkness. |
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bookies dont agree with you hayling moved it out for the GC
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Dragon - another example of how clever the horse is........wants to beat the bookies, same as us. I am max in on Don Poli at 9/1. All done. Sat happy.
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good luck to you, very hard race to call and you do have to see what the ground is of course. if we keep getting this crazy weather who knows what it will be in march
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I will be doing a rain dance each morning from March 1st !!!
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 well if stays like this you should be ok LOL!!! |
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Good for your mammy Hayling. They say girls are smarter than boys so she must have been pleased as punch you were the only boy.
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The Gold Cup picture seems to get murkier by the day. You do have to concede that sometimes the real Don (not that pretender) can seem to jump with clogs on.
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Poor Road To Riches, the one time 'fav' for the 2015 CGC; it was a great shame Road To Riches did not run against Don Poli yesterday otherwise one would have a much better idea of the standings of the Gigginstown CGC contenders, comparatively. Nevertheless, I'd still have Don Cossack in front of the other two despite its fall in the King George; if Don Cossack had jumped the last fence ok I think it would have won the King George, and the extra 2 1/2 furlongs in the CGC will be more to its liking too in my opinion.
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Whats up with Road to Riches? He ok for rest of season?? not heard anything.
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buddeliea,
Nothing is the matter with Road To Riches - it has dropped down the Gigginstown pecking order, that is all; unless the owner is prepared to run three in the CGC then in my opinion Road To Riches could be diverted to the Ryanair Chase (the sponsor is the owner) leaving the two Dons for the CGC or wait for Punchestown. |
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Has there been any suggestion he's dropped down the pecking order? Genuinely don't know but I'd be surprised. Seemed like quite a bit was against him last year and he still ran a mighty race only losing second close home. If he were my horse there would be one instruction to the trainer and that would be to peak for the big day.
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I certainly hope RTR runs in the Gold Cup as I have him at 40's. His run in last year's Gold Cup, coupled with my own personal disapointment in the Dons this week, I would have him easily on a level playing field with them, but he is still three times the price? He should be at the top table in Giggi's current horses.
I'm considering going in again at the 14's NRNB, but I might wait a while to see if anyone goes NRNB at longer odds. I'm hoping Valseur Lido will be their Ryanair horse. They've also got Clarcam (but he is well out of form) and the old boy First Lieutenant, but he wants every yard of 3m these days, so I have to concede RTR is probably their best chance in the Ryanair. |
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I think RTR has dropped down the pecking order: RTR is sound and fit to run in the Jnwine and/or the Lexus, both races he won in 2014, but was scratched; I cannot see Gigginstown running three in the CGC (two in 2015), and as RTR is effective between 20/24f and could front run I think it could end up in the Ryanair especially if Vautour goes either to the CC or the GC.
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MOL said today that if he had 8, 9 or 10 good enough to run in the GC he would run them provided he had a good one for the Ryanair - cant remember his exact words. They buy primarily to produce GC horses so if they have them they'll run them. I reckon most trainers/owners would want to give the GC their best shot and I include RRWM/GW.
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Well I have RTR at nice odds for the GC,and was looking forward to seeing him in the Lexus. As he was a NR i was wondering why he did not run.
Seems I still don't. I too am a tad concerned about the Ryanair option,but maybe they are not too impressed with Don Poli yesterday,I know I weren't. I hope they give him another chance in the Gold Cup,but if they do choose the Ryanair so be it. On his last run he would be a big runner in that race,and if Vautour ran there as well we would have a fair race with a couple of real grade one horses. Think I may look at some sort of back up wager for RTR in the Ryanair. |
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RTR would be the best Ryanair Dart they have and the way the race will cut up RTR and Smad Place look like good bets to me
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