He MAY win easily,that depends on how good he is.At the moment i see no evidence that says hes better than Sanctuaire,let alone the horses that fought out the finish of the QM.
For one thing we still aint see what SS will find in a battle,thats if he ever does have a battle!!
Yes,hes looked mighty impressive,but still a fair bit to prove against the best around.

Bud,

Is there a danger that you are trying too hard not to usher in Sprinter as the very good horse he is? I say this because I know you fought Al Ferof's corner all winter and seemed determined not to rate Sprinter as highly as he deserved. I did for much of the season before I had my 'Eureka' moment after his Newbury romp.

Can't believe you see no evidence to him being better than Sanctuaire. I know you are a big Al Ferof fan, so wonder how you would price up a race featuring the three of them?

Fair enough. I do agree with the point in general that you can never know how horses will shape up until they meet, I just think it's extremely unlikely that Al Ferof or Sanctuaire will bustle him up.

The niggling doubt that had always prevented me from jumping on the bandwagon was whether he would come up the hill as strongly as he did. I know some people point to the fact that he has never been in a battle and thus we don't know how much he would find. The problem with that line of thinking is that we need a horse fast enough and good enough to get him in one (and if Finian's and Sizing go elsewhere, there is no evidence as yet that there is one). Menorah is no world-beater but won a Supreme Novice and ran OK in a Champion Hurdle. He has a smashing Cheltenham record but was beaten at halfway in the Arkle despite having jumped fine to that point - a headache that hit many of this big black beast's wounded foes last season.

Perhaps more importantly is the likelihood that Sprinter will find plenty if needed. OK, he hasn't had to fight, but he came off the bridle for a few strides after the last in the Arkle and blitzed further away from Cue Card. He finished as strong as anything did all week, so I no longer worry that there are any weaknesses in him. The only way I see him getting beaten over two miles, assuming he stays injury free of course, is if something better comes on the scene. The likelihood that Sanctuaire is that horse, one who may well have to be better than the likes of Moscow Flyer, to me seems very remote indeed.

Assuming the big four make the race (I know the doubts about Finians, but assuming he lines up in the QMCC) I think the markets have got it pretty much spot on; but Tataniano should be up there assuming he is back next year.

Sprinter, without doubt, should be favourite, and Sanctuaire should be fourth favourite behind Finians and Sizing Europe.  Out of the four, Sanctuaire is the only one in my opinion that still has something to prove.

The others have all shown they can raise their game around Cheltenham in a Grade 1 Chase, and they have shown that their big wins are no "one race wonder"; they have done it time and time again.

Sanctuaire has to prove that his chase form will not just tail off like it did over hurdles.  There were quotes for Champion Hurdles after his Fred Winter win and then couldn't beat the 130 rated Orsippus at Aintree.  OK, Aintree form can be dodgy to say the least but then put in a string of poor performances, either side of his Scottish Champion Hurdle win.

For me, there is always a nagging doubt about the horse that he will spit his dummy out and run a shocker.  Yes, he looked epic when he won at Sandown, but can he repeat that?  I wouldn't be backing him at 12/1 for the QMCC, when there are an awful lot of questions to be answered.

People can say what they want about Sprinter, but he has never been pulled up, he's never just faded after the last and has never tailed off to finish last, miles behind the other runners; but Sanctuaire has.

In terms of Sanctuaire's win, I don't rate the form at all to be honest.  If you look at the runners he beat, all of them were either stuffed at Cheltenham or didn't run there because they weren't good enough. 

Because Sprinter has mainly beaten novices, the offical ratings of the ones he has beaten might not be as high as the ones Sanctuaire has beaten, but that's because novice ratings can fluctuate massively from run to run.

The Celebration Chase often throws up a few strange results.  Last year Chaninbar ran second, where his form figures were P74RRR.  The year before that I'm So Lucky (rated 146) beat Twist Magic rated 173 on his home turf.  Theey don't have any direct effect on Sanctuaire, but just to say a note of caution should be used when using the race as bare form, whereas everyone was trained to the minute in the Arkle, where usually the best horse in the race normally wins.

^^^^^^

Should also just say that in no way am I writing Sanctuaire off for the QMCC.  Many horses are much better over fences than hurdles, so maybe using his hurdles form is a bit harsh.

Just trying to point out that he has been far from consistent, and may have had one or two temperamental issues in the past.

I think he has the raw ability to win, and I can see why some would back him because of the Sandown performance.  It could be that we are choosing to ignore what we have seen with our own eyes, and are talking ourselves out of backing the horse.

If he repeats that performance in the Tingle Creek, a few on here, including me, will have egg on their face.

It's just at the moment, I wouldn't go near him with my money until I've seen him run to the same level again, because as good as that performance was, he needs to be able to step it up again.

Given his easy victory over 2m 4f at Aintree and the fact that SS is in the yard, I strongly suspect FR will end up in the Ryanair (Prior to the QM NJH was already thinking of moving him up in trip). Sizing will be 11, Big Zeb 12, Somersby is thoroughly exposed: Cue Card and Al Ferof are almost certainly not good enough on present form - we must wait and see if one or both find considerable improvement.

Budd - instinct to me always means more than weights and measures.

Budd - instinct to me always means more than weights and measures.

Budd - instinct to me always means more than weights and measures.

If Sprinter Sacre turns up 100% after a full campaign goes to plan he will win the Champion Chase, its that simple

Who knows? If the novices progress at a normal rate they should both be running 180-185 by the Festival next season making it more like a 2 horse race. On the other hand they may not progress much more (unlikley imo, especially for Sprinter). Sizing is presumably on the decline and there's a chance Finian's will step up in trip.

Speaking of the Chamnpion Chase, please can someone give me a link to the full video of the 2008 race? I can't find it in any of the usual places. TIA.

I believe Festival races from 09 are available on the Cheltenham Racecourse website (under Cheltenham TV) - before that it's very limited highlights.

Thanks for that, but they only go back to Jan 2009 (same as RUK site I think).