Budd - BJG is on record saying FR improved 20lbs from Ascot to the QMCC.

I am not sure how many llbs he improved, but improvement stands to reason (the trainer peaks in March, not in the VCC, and the horse apparently had residual issues from the error at Kempton) - I do not believe FR vs AF at Ascot should be taken literally when examining their subsequent exploits. I do not think the Ascot run means if he had not made an error at Cheltenham he would have landed a blow at CHeltenham. I do not think AF's proximity at Ascot to the subsequent QMCC winner gives an indication of how good Menorah must be.

I think AF is a cracking prospect albeit with questions to answer but no doubt exists in my mind he was flattered by FR at Ascot. Do you agree



Hi RC,
Well,i agree with FR being trained to peak at Chelt and improving from Ascot,of that i have no doubt.I also think Al Ferof was ridden very carefully that day and was fairly wide a lot of the way,and i also think he was not 100% either.Yes its probable he was flattered at Ascot considering what happened after re Finians,but really my point with CV's remarks is that i think it unfair to judge AF on his run at Aintree,totally unfair.

You make a point re Finians having an issue after an error at Kempton,well surely that could apply to AF at Aintree after his error at Chelt.

In the Arkle AF was going as well as SS,well visually to me he was,when he made a race ending blunder,so unfortunately we will never know what would have happened had he not.

For me the jury's well and truly out as re Al Ferof,and he needs to be seen next season before making judgement.
Personally i saw enough last season to think he can be competitive at the top 2m races next season on tracks that are not flat,ie Sandown and Chelt,as long as hes ridden off the pace,and not as he was at Chelt and Aintree.
Weather thats how hes campaigned though i aint sure,certainly the general feeling is he will be stepped up,and that may well see him at his best,we shall have to wait and see on that one.

Budd - I agree re AF. I would not judge him on Aintree or the Arkle, though I suspect he ran pretty straight at Ascot. I believe he had little hope in teh Arkle but certainly he lost all hope with the error, and who knows what woudl have been. I would be surprised if he ended up at the end of next yr having 2m as his best trip. I do not think he has much of a chance against good 2 milers but if they can get him spot on, he can be useful over further IMO (Ruby said after Ascot that he would be a good KG ride in 2012). I only mention Kempton to say that FR apparently was still feeling himself at Ascot having made that awful error - it is quite possible Al F was feeling his Arkle error at Aintree.

yep,plenty of time indeed,just hope that error aint left a mark.
It would be great if he fulfils the potential i feel he has,after all for all we know he may well have given SS a real race in the Arkle.
Hopefully next season he can prove me right to have the faith i have in him.

exactly how i se it Foyles,and thats why i prefer to use his earlier performances when judging the horse,thats only fair really.But its next year that will tell us what hes really about.

I agree - I'd be surprised if he ever runs over 2 m again though I'm not sure what his ideal trip is yet. I'm perfectly happy to write off the Aintree run when he clearly wasn't himself.

have been considering him   for the king george cvb  stamina will have to be taken on trust  but  well worth a go and a huge  win and place  price on here  imo.

yeh lads,yer probably right he will be stepped up,but i know i am in a minority here,but i still feel that Al Ferof could challenge over 2m against the big boys if conditions are right ie at Cheltenham with a good pace.
Still,what i want to see dont really matter,its what the horse needs thats important.

Agree re Cue Card over 2 and half,although i may be a tad concerned about his jumping in big races,still not 100% convinced hes a natural,hes a talented horse though.

Biggest KG field ever

good points Stront,probably 2 good reasons why i wont get what i want
Although maybe Nicholls might want more than one shot at SS!!
Just never know.

First little test of Sanctuaire Sandown form tomorrow. Dan Breen 3rd at Sandown and apparently the horse that gave Sanctuaire his rating runs in a decent handicap 2.55 Market Rasen.

Might just add to the debate.

He may end up in the Ryanair next year, but he'll be tried at 3m for sure, maybe Argento to see if he stays the trip. Nicholls only has What a Friend for the Gold Cup that I can think of. Sil Conti is a flat track horse.

Cristal Bonus has run well given he needs soft, I'd imagine him to improve next season and improve for soft ground in autumn.

Not sure he got a soft lead CVB.  Just nothing could live with him.  He wasn't the only horse that wanted to lead.

Don't agree CVB, he just was too fast for them. SS IMO is still the one to beat, but I think you underestimate Sanctuaire.

Shockster, it's not a point of dispute, it's a fact he had a soft lead. This isn't something that is a matter of opinion.

When there is only 1 front runner and nobody is disputing the early lead then the front runner is allowed to set his own pace. This is the definition of a soft lead.

This definition is exactly what happened at Sandown with Sanctuaire. His jumping put them to the sword after the 3rd onwards. But early he was let the lead and nobody intended to dispute it.

Dan Breen did little for the form there. I imagine he is way over the top (as I imagine he and others were at Sandown).

CVB - 4 went over the first together.  Ask yourself this, did they let him go or could they not keep up. It wasn't as if he poached 20L at the start as I have said 4 went across the first together. Have you watched it again?

the tingle creek should answer the questions just hope all the key players  line up !!

I suspect not Foyles. The horse seems to enjoy Sandown and I imagine PFN would dearly love to knock SS off his perch.

CVB, why is your definition of a soft lead a matter of fact and not up for dispute? My interpretation of a soft lead is when all but one of the jocks sleep at the start - by accident or design, gifting a horse a very generous start at little cost of expended energy to the leader.

As has been pointed out, this was not the case at Sandown. Now, after the second fence DJ's rivals might have taken a decision that he had gone off at an unsustainable pace, but that is not a soft lead. There is no softness in it for the leader, he has had to use up considerable energy at that point in the race to build that lead.

Did Sanctuaire's rivals decide collectively that Sanctuaire had gone off too quickly? How do you know they simply concluded that they did not feel they could safely take on such an accurate jumper going at a pace that would put their mounts outside their comfort zone at such an early stage? In that scenario it is an admission by the other riders that they would not be confident their mounts could hack it in close pursuit.

Another regular feature of soft lead races is that the pack close relentlessly and quickly on the leader close home but leave it too late to catch him.

I repeat what I mentioned in an earlier post: Sanctuaire was well fancied - he was not a big outsider who could have been expected to fold quickly and easily. Nor did the pack appear to believe they could sit quitely till the second last or after it - most of them were being pushed along leaving the back straight a strong endorsement of the final time clocked by the winner.

Lastly but significantly imo, neither Timeform nor the RP summarisers made any mention of a soft lead.

Perhaps then not quite so clear cut as you'd have us believe?

^ Agreed - to me a soft lead is one in which a horse is not hassled by any of the other runners, regardless of whether it is leading by virtue of being too good for the others or if it the jocks have made an error of judgment and given it too much rope. So in that sense, I think Sanctuaire did get a soft lead. Although I think the others gave him too much rope initially, to the midway point, I agree that nothing was able to live with him from that point and couldn't get within a country mile. I still think he was hugely flattered because I think the others all ran a long way below form, and, as was pointed out a few posts back, Dan Breen certainly didn't do anything to suggest otherwise yesterday.

One thing that has not really been asked yet (I don't think, I've only been dipping in and out of this one) is whether Sanctuaire will fall to pieces if he is taken on. Surely even his most ardent supporters can't believe he is the fastest horse in training, so something would be able to live with him if it is asked to, and for a horse with known quirks, he might not be the most tractable if he does get harangued up front.

As I've said before, personally, I don't think it really matters. I think Sprinter will eat when he wants. And Finian's too.