I expect Grands Crus to go for the Gold Cup, to be cruising at the top of the hill and to be beaten about 30 l. He hasn't stayed 3 m at Cheltenham the last 2 years against high class horses and barely stayed the "easy" 3 m at Kempton at Christmas. It would take a serious transformation for him to get the CGC trip. Ruby Walsh says he doesn't see out his races and he's been at the sharp end with him enough to know.

Finians might start out in something like the Haldon Gold Cup or the Amlin Chase. I think he'll have a pop at the King George.

Sanctuaire may also head for the HGC as it's a race Nicholls likes -Kauto Star, Azertyioup and Twist Magic (3 times) all ran there so it seems to be where he aims his top 2 miler, especially if it likes a right handed track.

Personal opinion - Grand Crus trained for the King George, stamina limitations in top league exposed in that race, drops back in trip and stars in the race of the festival against Sprinter Sacre in the QM.
Don't know if there's a horse out there that can live with SS's mid race burst which finished every race of his last season as a competition, but if only a horse could live with that and be with him coming into the straight, how interesting would that be.'Roof off the stands' moment.
Never be scared of one horse.......

i think the key to sanctuaire is to give him his head and let him bowl  along in front and his fast accurate jumping puts pressure on the oppositions jumping . just had a look at his hurdle races and although he has won when held up he was always fighting for his head and the reason he went "sour " last season could be that he doesnt like being restrained ,his 3 chase runs this season have seen him in a much better light and this fellla could be a decent value bet for the queen mother as that race looks as tho it could cut up to single figuers again ,what with sprinter sacre and this fella scaring away the opposition .14s on here and 3.5 to place is not the worst bet on offer .i am on and will be going in again .

As I said earlier on this thread, I have huge respect for you Steeple, but again take issue with this view.

To say there is no contest as to which horse offers the better value is nonsense - you are basing your thoughts on the Sandown performance, which many believe to have shown a very good horse looking like a great one against others that didn't run to form or were done for the season.

We all live and die by the confidence of our assertions in this game. Mine is that Sprinter Sacre will smash this one to pieces under any conditions and at any track over two miles. I also think Finian's will stick to two miles, contrary to popular belief, and will also stuff Sanctuaire.

Hi R Carver, I'm doing well thanks. Been back in Canada for a few weeks now after my annual trip back for Cheltenham! Had a good meeting but as ever it should have been better - I hit three of my four big bets but gave a little more back than I should have done on races that I was less confident in. Maybe I'll learn next year... Hope you had a good meeting, and are doing well generally.

I just don't get the Sanctuaire stuff at all to be honest. Those that backed him at big prices before Sandown have every right to be feeling smug but I'm shocked that some people actually think he's at least as good as the highest-rated novice chaser Timeform have ever rated, just four weeks after that accolade being handed out, and on the back of one end-of-season win in a Grade Two at a track that suits tearaway front-runners.

I don't wish to be a prophet of bad news, but the main reason that I would not even consider backing SS at less than 3/1 for the 2013 QM is that only about 60% of the top horses stay sound and/or healthy between 2 Festivals, so although a fit and healthy SS would be a great bet at 5/4 if the race was run against the known opposition all running to their latest form, that almost never happens 10 months later. What if Peddlers Cross came back to his best? What if SS has a fall in a prep race? What if Seven Barrows gets the sort of virus that struck Ditcheat before the 2012 festival? All perfectly possible reasons why 5/4 could look very poor value. As far as Sanctuaire is concerned, I would wait to see what happens when he is taken on for the lead. He might just power away, he might just pack it in.

sage I think in modern times the amount of top horses who make the festival is increasing. Very few winners of previous festival grade 1s fail to show up the following year. Lots of the top horses only get to the top by being sound and not injury prone.

As for Sanctuaire, the current price offers no value imo, it's more likely that he'll be shown up in tingle creek by Sprinter and drift, or have his Celebration Chase form shown as a Woolcombe Folly. Also it's important to remember Nicholls said he'd be better on a flat track. So his chances in a Champion chase may be very different to his chances in a Tingle Creek, like the fantastic Twist Magic.

Boat has been missed for this one, for good imo. If he wins Tingle creek he'll be fav for Champ Chase even though he may not like Cheltenham.

Those who believe Sanctuaire might crumble if taken on for the lead - would you care to nominate a horse able to do so or a jockey willing to chance it (unless they are in the race strictly to try and get him at it)? S Sacre wants holding up if BJG's tactcis so far are to be believed - he might decide to change those but is much more likely to view Sanctuaire as the ideal lead.

Given Sanctuaire's deadly accurate jumping so far, I'd be much more concerned about the horse who took him on than Sanctuaire himself. I haven't seen a horse jump Sandown at speed like that since Tingle Creek himself who had lots more experience than Sanctuaire.

In comparison with SS, you'd think Sanctuaire had suddenly done a Hunt Ball and people are having trouble taking evidence at face value. In fact, Sanctuaire was rated 1lb higher than SS over hurdles. He has won his 3 chases by an aggregate of 74 lengths (about 10 more than SS 5-race aggregate albeit SS running at a higher level).

I think Sprinter Sacre is a wonderful horse but his charisma and public appeal are greatly assisted by his fine frame - Sanctuaire looks like a Flat horse in comparison. But handsome is as handsome does. The horses are with the best trainers and have the top jocks riding them - no real advantage there. There is 2lbs between them in OR and Sanctuaire, with just 3 chase runs, arguably has more scope for improvement. To my eye, the Nicholls horse is by far the most economic jumper of the two. There has to be a slight concern that he might be more effective right-handed though he hasn't run a bad race in four visits to Cheltenham. All in all, 12/1 V 5/4 allied to the usual ante-post caveats of injury, virus etc.,(as mentioned by sageform) then the value lies in Sanctuaire.

Dyed-in-the-wool SS fans will deny this, but anyone taking as objective a view as is possible in racing, would, I think, be convinced and take the 12s.

Good luck.

BTW, Grands Crus would be much more likely to scare me in the QM so I hope he goes for the Gold Cup though, imo, he has no chance of getting the trip unless his running style becomes much more relaxed.

Steeple - S Sacre may want holding up but he rarely has been over fences because nothing has been good enough to give him a lead. S Sacre was very comfortable out in front at Doncaster, Kempton, Newbury, Cheltenham and Aintree. I would put my last penny on Barry both seeing Sanc as the ideal lead but critically not giving him as much rope in the Tingle Creek as those did in the Celebreation.

Anything can happen to a horse's jumping on a given day. Solid jumper's sometimes make errors but on form, the facts are clear - Sprinter Sacre has jumped 62 fences at Doncaster, Kempton, Newbury, Cheltenham and Aintree. Sanctuaire has jumped 14 fences at Taunton (after Ludlow the easiest jumping track in the land) and the same 13 fences around Sandown twice. His experience of Sandown is conceivably an advantage (maybe even a big one) come Tingle Creek day but the onverall evidence from their jumping careers favours S Sacre. This is surely indisputable.

Btw Steeple, I still stand by all my compliments of Sanc. After dismissing him, he has proven me (as most horses / bets do!) badly wrong. He has been a joy to watch and those with big prices have done brilliantly. I am not knowking the horse at all and he is at the very least a serious challenger. It is also nice you are back posting here. RC.

right stront far away from being a flat track,   and sanctu has shown that he can handle chelt,not saying he will beat sprinter but he is a serious contender and is a fair value price  imo

How is Sanct now value? Impressive as it was it was Sandown(wouldnt be the first time a Nicholls horse was class there and poor at Chelts) and you had two unrealiable horses behind him. You could of got at least 33-1 before his last run. Value? No way

RC, thanks for your kind comments. I stopped posting here some time ago due to the number of rude and sometimes abusive posters - none aimed at me but at others. The AP forum was civilised for a long time and then seemed to go rapidly downhill. Anyway, I hope it's back near its best now and good on you and the other regulars for persevering - a feat I found beyond me.

You make a perfectly fair point about hurdles form and I happily accept that, eventually, SS would almost certainly have been superior to Sanctuaire over hurdles.  It's worth clarifying at this point that I am not a long-time Sanctuaire fan - I've backed him twice in my life; last time out and ante-post for the QM. But what I saw in him when winning his first two over fences was a horse who had suddenly found what he was born for. 

The angle I was taking with the hurdle rating comparison was to drive home the fact that this is a talented horse; Sanctuaire didn't suddenly become good just because a fence was put in front of him - granted he became a lot better, but he'd already proved himself a very decent, if moody performer over hurdles. Of course we can't be certain that the 'quirks' won't return over fences but if you've ever seen a more enthusiastic novice chaser, let me know its name.

I believe there is a very strong possibility that the horse simply resented restraint - front running as much as fencing might easily be the reason he has rediscovered his mojo.

CVB, I don't know how long you've been watching racing but if SS is the best jumper of a fence you've ever seen, you probably didn't see the likes of Mr Frisk, to name but one. SS is a good jumper in general although he regularly screws in the air, sometimes lands rather awkwardly (needing to be gathered up and straightened by BJG) and occasionally he leaves his hind legs quite low in the birch, a habit that did for Long Run although SS is nowhere near as bad as he is at it. Yes, he is spectacular at times and with such a superb looker, these are the jumps which tend to stick in the memory. But Sanctuaire has already shown that jumping straight and landing running are where he excels although he too can be spectacular with little if any loss of efficiency - have a look at his treatment at the open ditches (2nd and 6th) last time.

You say Sanctuaire has done nothing to warrant confidence but that can only be based on the premise that nothing bar him (and Dan Breen) ran to form at Sandown.  Hand on heart, had SS demolished that field in the same fashion, would you be saying nothing ran to form except him?

sj, I believe, in a straight comparison with SS, Sanc is still the value with totesport at 12s for the QM although I have backed him at a bigger price. He's already a festival winner (and a very easy one at that)and ran well again at Cheltenham when 8th of 23 in the Greatwood carrying 11.12.

Anyway, we all have the anticipation to help carry us through what is laughingly called the summer. We'll have more than Christmas to look forward to in December.

Good luck.

I was standing right by that first open ditch. It's a spectacular place to watch horses jump. Sanctuaire really put in a big one. One of the racecourse photographers who was also by there told me he jumped out of the top of his picture!

Coincidentally I was also standing there the first time he jumped round Sandown and as I recall he was immaculate then too.

CVB. you are twisting my words. I'm not 'picking holes in his jumping'. I said in general he jumped well. The comparison we were making - specifically - was against Sanctuaire's jumping.  I watched SS's Kempton, Aintree and Arkle performances again before posting and suggest you do the same if you want evidence of what I said.

And you avoided my straightforward question: had SS demolished the Sandown field in the way Sanc did, would you have written off the form as you are doing with Sanc? It isn't a tough question, is it?

I'm not saying SS represents value at 5-4 this long out, but given a free bet i would rather back SS. Think people are getting carried away with the celebration chase win as good as it was, nobody was shocked that Sanct wasnt even entered for the Arkle

Thats cos he aint value at 5/4 SJ,that is plainly obvious.
However Sanctuaire may well be at his price,and imo is.
As i have said before Sanct has thrashed the horse that beat the QM winner,SS has beaten Cue Card!! and was given the Arkle when Al Ferof his main challenger fecked up.

Those are the facts,so for me when it comes to the value at this stage,its a no brainer.

yes cv  sprinter sacre is the most likely winner of the champion chase and i am not saying he wont win  the betting tells us that,but is he value now  at around 11/8 for a race 10 months away? to some he may be but we all have our opinions  ? if you got fancy prices before he won the arkle then you have a decent value bet to look forward to and well done  and good luck with it !

Talking about value right now CV,not the most likely winner in a years time.

And stop being so condescinding!! You are making a bit of a habit of that when people argue a case with you.

You really think Al Ferof showed his true form at Aintree?? The horse just behind the QM winner at Ascot!!

Also you have absolutely no proof as to what would have happened in the race had AF jumped that fence well,just opinion,so to say he would have had no chance is wrong and a guess.

Budd - BJG is on record saying FR improved 20lbs from Ascot to the QMCC.

I am not sure how many llbs he improved, but improvement stands to reason (the trainer peaks in March, not in the VCC, and the horse apparently had residual issues from the error at Kempton) - I do not believe FR vs AF at Ascot should be taken literally when examining their subsequent exploits. I do not think the Ascot run means if he had not made an error at Cheltenham he would have landed a blow at CHeltenham. I do not think AF's proximity at Ascot to the subsequent QMCC winner gives an indication of how good Menorah must be.

I think AF is a cracking prospect albeit with questions to answer but no doubt exists in my mind he was flattered by FR at Ascot. Do you agree?