Byrne Group Plate (Handicap Chase) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) CH4
Good 2m5f

8 of the last 10 winners carrying 10-9 or less
Horses officially rated 139 or less have won 7 of 8 runnings
9 of 10 winners finished in first 5 last time out (exception hadn't run that season)
9 of 10 winners had run in past 40 days
9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 6 times that season (exception hadn't run that season)
9 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 15 chases
9 of 10 winners had won 1 to 5 times over fences
9 of 10 winners had run in 12 or fewer handicap chases
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases
9 of 10 winners had won 0 or 1 handicap chase that season
10 of 10 winners had previously won over 2M 2½F to 2M 5F
10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or better chase
7 of 10 winners had finished in the first 4 in a graded chase (3 exceptions having first run in a graded chase)
8 of 10 winners had a hurdles rating of 130+
10 of 10 winners had previously run at Cheltenham (4 had won, 4 had placed, 2 unplaced)

Potentially a very tough nut to crack, and due to time constraints, can only give this a 'quick and dirty' and will have a much more thorough look when sipping a few alses in the boozer in Bishops Cleeve on Wednesday night!

F6-140     Great Endeavour96     8
1446453    Tartak47     9
165-21     Giorgio Quercus54     7
541-19     Rebel Du Maquis232     7
U1231     Champion Court74     7
456951    Cannington Brook26     8
11188/     Jack The Giant706     10
13232    Hector´s Choice19     8
83134    Consigliere19     9
214712    Micheal Flips27     8
211323    Notus De La Tour46     6
61-B03     Matuhi74     9
7010F     Finger Onthe Pulse96     11
13-892     Dan Breen12     7
5F94U2     Tullamore Dew26     10
8P-50     Crack Away Jack26     8
112111    Hunt Ball19     7
1-P3U0     Divers33     8
2-0385     Holmwood Legend26     11
F5U3P     Gilbarry54     7
8112/0     Salut Flo96     7
3P111     Quincy Des Pictons79     8
732380    Mad Moose26     8
P2332     Ackertac54     7
9301U     22 Charingworth30     9
29P54     21 Fine Parchment12     9
FP-3P4     20 Gansey19     10
5U2340     19 Vino Griego26     7
F11P2     18 Educated Evans19     7
11PPP0     17 Schindler´s Gold61     10
25671U     16 Glam Gerry49     8
P28-P     15 Aimigayle26     9
125743    14 Rileyev12     7
311611    13 Niceonefrankie13 5x     6
51318    12 Carpincho47     8
22U322     11 The Cockney Mackem22     6
1P-P1P     10 Radetsky March15     9
2-1345     9 Bottman47     7
PF336F     8 Riguez Dancer29     8
724303    7 Life Of A Luso19     8
94-436     6 Pigeon Island79     9
2327418    5 Kilcrea Asla26     11
41332F     4 Pentiffic12     9
412PP     3 Free World123     10
P4572     2 Plein Pouvoir5     9
41F233     1 Ballyoliver7     8


Step 1 - Eliminate horses rated 141 and higher. This is normally a race for the lower rated / weighted horses. This leaves:

2-0385     Holmwood Legend26     11    10-Sep    Keiran Burke100         140    157    165
F5U3P     Gilbarry54     7    10-Jun    Jonjo O´Neill25         137    125    144
8112/0     Salut Flo96     7    10-Jun    David Pipe56         137    124    142
3P111     Quincy Des Pictons79     8    10-Jun    Alan Jones         137    148    158
732380    Mad Moose26     8    10-Apr    Nigel Twiston-Davies70         135    149    163
P2332     Ackertac54     7    10-Mar    Nigel Twiston-Davies70         134    109    165
9301U     22 Charingworth30     9    10-Feb    Ferdy Murphy60     Lucy Alexander5     133    149    162
29P54     21 Fine Parchment12     9    10-Feb    Charlie Mann29     Noel Fehily     133    149    166
FP-3P4     20 Gansey19     10    10-Feb    Sue Smith18         133    122    166
5U2340     19 Vino Griego26     7    10-Jan    Gary Moore50         132    134    170
F11P2     18 Educated Evans19     7    10-Jan    Nigel Twiston-Davies70         132    160    167
11PPP0     17 Schindler´s Gold61     10    01-Sep    Dr Richard Newland25         130    127    170
25671U     16 Glam Gerry49     8    01-Sep    C A Murphy50         130    95    159
P28-P     15 Aimigayle26     9    09-Dec    Suzy Smith     Colin Bolger     129    159    167
125743    14 Rileyev12     7    09-Dec    Venetia Williams60         129    144    166
311611    13 Niceonefrankie13 5x     6    09-Dec    Venetia Williams60         129    160    171
51318    12 Carpincho47     8    09-Nov    Sarah Humphrey         128    131    166
22U322     11 The Cockney Mackem22     6    09-Nov    Nigel Twiston-Davies70         128    157    161
1P-P1P     10 Radetsky March15     9    09-Nov    Mark Bradstock         128    —     —
2-1345     9 Bottman47     7    09-Oct    Tim Vaughan50         127    134    160
PF336F     8 Riguez Dancer29     8    09-Oct    Ferdy Murphy60     Lucy Alexander5     127    124    156
724303    7 Life Of A Luso19     8    09-Aug    Paul Henderson         125    141    158
94-436     6 Pigeon Island79     9    09-Aug    Nigel Twiston-Davies70         125    147    154
2327418    5 Kilcrea Asla26     11    09-Jul    Graeme McPherson50         124    154    158
41332F     4 Pentiffic12     9    09-Jul    Venetia Williams60         124    133    163
412PP     3 Free World123     10    09-Jun    Warren Greatrex100         123    132    158
P4572     2 Plein Pouvoir5     9    09-Feb    Venetia Williams60         119    133    149
41F233     1 Ballyoliver7     8    08-Oct    Venetia Williams60         113    142    148

Step 2 - Eliminate horses finishing outside of the top 4 last time out (completed starts). This reduces the field to:

3P111     Quincy Des Pictons79     8    10-Jun    Alan Jones         137    148    158
P2332     Ackertac54     7    10-Mar    Nigel Twiston-Davies70         134    109    165
9301U     22 Charingworth30     9    10-Feb    Ferdy Murphy60     Lucy Alexander5     133    149    162
29P54     21 Fine Parchment12     9    10-Feb    Charlie Mann29     Noel Fehily     133    149    166
FP-3P4     20 Gansey19     10    10-Feb    Sue Smith18         133    122    166
F11P2     18 Educated Evans19     7    10-Jan    Nigel Twiston-Davies70         132    160    167
25671U     16 Glam Gerry49     8    01-Sep    C A Murphy50         130    95    159
125743    14 Rileyev12     7    09-Dec    Venetia Williams60         129    144    166
311611    13 Niceonefrankie13 5x     6    09-Dec    Venetia Williams60         129    160    171
22U322     11 The Cockney Mackem22     6    09-Nov    Nigel Twiston-Davies70         128    157    161
724303    7 Life Of A Luso19     8    09-Aug    Paul Henderson         125    141    158
P4572     2 Plein Pouvoir5     9    09-Feb    Venetia Williams60         119    133    149
41F233     1 Ballyoliver7     8    08-Oct    Venetia Williams60         113    142    148

Step 3 - Eliminate horses not having run within the last 40 days

9301U     22 Charingworth30     9    10-02    Ferdy Murphy60     Lucy Alexander5     133    149    162
29P54     21 Fine Parchment12     9    10-02    Charlie Mann29     Noel Fehily     133    149    166
FP-3P4     20 Gansey19     10    10-02    Sue Smith18         133    122    166
F11P2     18 Educated Evans19     7    10-01    Nigel Twiston-Davies70         132    160    167
125743    14 Rileyev12     7    9-13    Venetia Williams60         129    144    166
311611    13 Niceonefrankie13 5x     6    9-12    Venetia Williams60         129    160    171
22U322     11 The Cockney Mackem22     6    9-11    Nigel Twiston-Davies70         128    157    161
724303    7 Life Of A Luso19     8    9-08    Paul Henderson         125    141    158
P4572     2 Plein Pouvoir5     9    9-02    Venetia Williams60         119    133    149
41F233     1 Ballyoliver7     8    8-11    Venetia Williams60         113    142    148

Step 4 - Eliminate horses not having won a Class 3 chase or better

9301U     22 Charingworth30     9    10-02    Ferdy Murphy60     Lucy Alexander5     133    149    162
29P54     21 Fine Parchment12     9    10-02    Charlie Mann29     Noel Fehily     133    149    166
FP-3P4     20 Gansey19     10    10-02    Sue Smith18         133    122    166
F11P2     18 Educated Evans19     7    10-01    Nigel Twiston-Davies70         132    160    167
125743    14 Rileyev12     7    9-13    Venetia Williams60         129    144    166
311611    13 Niceonefrankie13 5x     6    9-12    Venetia Williams60         129    160    171
724303    7 Life Of A Luso19     8    9-08    Paul Henderson         125    141    158

Step 5 - Eliminate horses with a hurdles rating< 130

Applying Step 5 would leave only Gansey, so he must be my (very tentative) ante-post selection.

THU 15 MAR 2012
Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup (Handicap Chase) (Amateur Riders) (CLASS 2) (5yo+ 0-140)
3m1f110y

8 of 10 winners have been aged 8 or 9
9 of 10 winners (last 7) carried 10-10 or more (after claim)
In the last 4 runnings all 16 places were filled by horses rated 126 to 140.
In the past 2 runnings all 8 places were filled by horses rated within 11lbs of the top weight.
6 of 10 winners finished 9th or worse on their last start (4 others finished 1st or 2nd)
8 of 10 winners placed on 1 or both of last 2 starts (2 exceptions trained by Martin Pipe)
10 of 10 winners ran in a class 3 or higher handicap chase on last run over fences
10 of 10 winners ran over 3M+ last time out
8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (both exceptions had finished 2nd over 3M+)
10 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in a chase over 3M+
8 of 10 winners had run in 1 to 8 handicap chases
9 of 10 winners (last 8) had won no more than 2 handicap chases
8 of 10 winners were 1st, 2nd or 3rd season chasers (2 exceptions finished in first 5 in JLT Specialty H'cap Chase at previous Festival)
The last 3 winners had been placed in a handicap hurdle in 1 of their previous 3 starts


The trends I have applied to the race are as follows, in order to get to my final shortlist of 5:

Concentrate on horses aged 8 or 9 (8 out of last 10 winners)
Eliminate horses carrying less than 10'10
Eliminate horses who have not won over 3m+
Eliminate horses who failed to finish in first 3 on one of their last 2 starts
Eliminate horses who didn't run in a class 3 or better chase over 3m+ last time out
Eliminate Irish trained horses as have a terrible record


Plus another of my own:

Eliminate horses who were pulled up last time out

This leaves the following shortlist of 5 that I will be concentrating on should they turn up on the day:

NO.     HORSE     AGE     WGT
2112U1     Helpston19     8    11-09
FP-551     Mostly Bob74     9    11-05
1P/1-4     Summery Justice117     8    11-03
2F11F     Baile Anrai26     8    11-02
15220    30 Time For Spring27     8    10-12

Slightly put off by the long absence of Summery Justice, and Time For Spring might just be a little low in the weights and may struggle to get in.

At this stage, my favoured three from the above would be:

Helpston
Mostly Bob
Baile Anrai (backed for a different race already, so kind of hope he doesn't make it here)

good luck JOCI
have really enjoyed reading your posts

good luck JOCI really enjoyed the thread

Harry, unlucky mate but I'm sure you did alright. Hope you took some of the 60+ for the National

Just back from an exhausted four days.

Managed 7 winners in all (one less than the eight of last year) and a couple of near misses.

Day 1:

Sprinter Sacre & Quevega

Day 2:

Teaforthree

Day 3:

Riverside Theatre
Big Buck's

Day 4:

Synchronised & Salsify


Worst moment of the Festival - putting Riverside Theatre to beat Alberta's Run in an exacta, only to discover that I'd put race 4 instead of race 3 on ths lip, and ended up with So Young to beat Big Buck's.

Gutted of course.

Hope you all had some success!

bump