jodorick - my final shortlist of 3 for the Triumph last year were:

Zarkander 1st
Unaccompanied 2nd
Marsh Warbler Non Runner

My final selection was Unaccompanied on account of the fact that Zarkander had only previously run once over hurdles, and that swayed it for me.

well I think we will do well to combine and compare our efforts this year mate - what you think?

yes, but is the same angle! (Just different thoughts about it plus interpretation of ratings)

that's why it i useful because we will be very close

Assuming Simonsig drops out then they both win the day on what i've done so far as well.

Interesting one regarding the NH Bred dominance in recent years is that this is mainly been a direct result of the ground conditions being altered. Should we have good ground then this stat may not be relevant and Galileo's Choice then scores highly as well and he actually fulfills the FLAT RPR for the 2 flat winners we have had in the last 10 renewals.

I'll let you know where I come out as I go as well - simply due to the fact that Cue Card and Time for Rupert were massive negatives for me last year. Managed to pick Spirit Son ew as first choice with a win saver on Al Ferof in supreme and had my biggest ever win bay a long, long way on Bostons Angel in the RSA.

Many others were similar to your selections such as Oscars Well and Unaccompanied

Excellent thoughts again Joci.
I'm with Balder Succes - I'm kind of disappointed they didn't take up the Supreme option as it could be a weak affair and the 4yo weight allowance would give him a huge chance IMO.
I do this this could be a decent renewal though....

ginger64 - thanks. Darlan is still on the shortlist for consideration. In fact, he's next behind Montbazon and Tetlami in preference (see my latest update on the Supreme a little further up the page). He did seem to be going well at Newbury, but the truth is that we really won't know how much he had in his locker, and how much (if anything) the crashing fall affected his wellbeing / confidence. My bets are down on Tetlami and Montbazon, but there are still a couple of others under consideration, and he might be one of them.

Joci

your comments have been noted you obviously have followers in high places, I am referring of course to the move on Montbazon today hmmmm. Did you do any work on the Neptune I would be very interested if you have.

Brilliant thread.  Thanks to all who have contributed, a great read and so informative.  Cheers.

Better include Boston Bob as appears heading that way now,also 7 year olds have great record in race though hasnt been over 3 mile yet, appears the 2 Irish horses have it between them him and Mount Benbulben whom on at 16s. So bit worried Boston Bob heading for this?

stevo1 - I thought Boston Bob had won a PTP over 3 miles, but could be mistaken.

Although I realise that staying 3m in what was probably a slowly run PTP might not necessarily translate to being able to stay 3m in a championship hurdle race at Cheltenham, I've not heard of any likely stamina limitations. Comments for his three hurdle runs:

kept on well run in

kept on strongly run in, comfortably

led last, asserted run in, easily

I'd heard to the contrary, and his price crash since last night suggests he's heading for the AB (at least I hope he is now).

Hope not, as my money is down now.

WED 14 MAR 2012
Neptune Investment Management Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Baring Bingham Novices´ Hurdle) (CLASS 1) (4yo+)

FORM    HORSE     AGE
0-2711     Aikideau44     5
41214    Aland Islands11     6
610120    Alderwood31     8
2133    All The Aces20     7
11    At Fishers Cross24     5
1980041    Aupcharlie46     6
142-24     Avoca Promise19     7
31-535     Baldadash92     7
216-12     Ballyrock74     6
153800    Batonnier46     6
0U1P1     Benefficient31     6
31-111     Boston Bob45     7
50-242     Brass Tax24     6
231214    Brough Academy17     6
20-84F     Bygones In Brid13     6
212-31     Close House90     5
111    Cotton Mill60     5
1652450    Crescent Beach18     5
110321    Cross Of Honour32     5
311372    Dawn Commander14     5
77830    Dedigout66     6
12-243     Destroyer Deployed22     6
322    Diamond Life20     6
111    Divapour24     5
5315    Dont Back Down37     5
351320    Double Ross26     6
10-211     Felix Yonger17     6
1-1111     Fingal Bay74     6
230P-1     Fiulin24     7
31139    Go All The Way34     7
2P/552     Hasty Times94     7
80811    It´s A Gimme28     5
149    Jigsaw Puzzle19     6
1-1210     Jimbill73     6
111-22     Keys25     5
2121P9     King´s Realm25     5
0-1316     Knight Pass46     6
221111    Knock A Hand26     7
22332    Lord Gale10     6
F114     Lord Windermere31     6
1113    Make Your Mark45     5
42-21     Marasonnien53     6
20-111     Molotof89     5
O111     Monksland66     5
40979    Mono Man110     6
1-S112     Mount Benbulben87     7
FP112     Nagpur20     6
40909    Natural High186F     7
11    Nelson´s Bridge55     5
25117    Ohio Gold60     6
123    Perfect Gentleman11     7
1221P     Pickapocketortwo55     8
14-111     Poole Master12     7
12144    Prospect Wells67     7
221484    Rowan Tiger21     6
U8211     Savello119     6
0-3921     Sheer Genius10     7
512    Simenon38     5
1-1121     Simonsig28     6
11514    Sivola De Sivola46     6
2-1115     Sizing Symphony103     6
2-1132     Sous Les Cieux31     6
95-121     Sunny Ledgend17     7
22-658     Super Villan11     7
01-911     Sword Of Destiny129     6
11113    Terminal28     5
41239    The Bosses Cousin39     7
2131    The Druids Nephew60     5
110-21     The Tracey Shuffle29     6
41-261     Theatre Guide25     5
41-1P     Toostrong13     5
9    Veratan20     5
1-421     Vesper Bell52     6
004-2     Walter De La Mare162     5
215    All Annalena20     6
21-342     Theleze52     5
213133    Secret Edge46     4


A huge field to whittle down at this stage but something which should be relatively easy to do in about 5 or 6 steps, using stats / trends.

Step 1: Eliminate horses that have not finished 1st or 2nd on their most recent start


A very large % of winners have fulfilled this stat, and it takes a way a decent chunk of the runners, leaving the following contenders:

FORM    HORSE     AGE
0-2711     Aikideau44     5
11    At Fishers Cross24     5
1980041    Aupcharlie46     6
216-12     Ballyrock74     6
0U1P1     Benefficient31     6
31-111     Boston Bob45     7
50-242     Brass Tax24     6
212-31     Close House90     5
111    Cotton Mill60     5
110321    Cross Of Honour32     5
311372    Dawn Commander14     5
322    Diamond Life20     6
111    Divapour24     5
10-211     Felix Yonger17     6
1-1111     Fingal Bay74     6
230P-1     Fiulin24     7
2P/552     Hasty Times94     7
80811    It´s A Gimme28     5
111-22     Keys25     5
221111    Knock A Hand26     7
22332    Lord Gale10     6
42-21     Marasonnien53     6
20-111     Molotof89     5
O111     Monksland66     5
1-S112     Mount Benbulben87     7
FP112     Nagpur20     6
11    Nelson´s Bridge55     5
14-111     Poole Master12     7
U8211     Savello119     6
0-3921     Sheer Genius10     7
512    Simenon38     5
1-1121     Simonsig28     6
2-1132     Sous Les Cieux31     6
95-121     Sunny Ledgend17     7
01-911     Sword Of Destiny129     6
2131    The Druids Nephew60     5
110-21     The Tracey Shuffle29     6
41-261     Theatre Guide25     5
1-421     Vesper Bell52     6
004-2     Walter De La Mare162     5
21-342     Theleze52     5


Step 2: Eliminate horses that are aged 4 or older than 6


Ten out of the last ten winners have been either aged 5 or 6 so this seems a very reasonable stat to use to further whittle down the field by eight horses:

FORM    HORSE     AGE
0-2711     Aikideau44     5
11    At Fishers Cross24     5
1980041    Aupcharlie46     6
216-12     Ballyrock74     6
0U1P1     Benefficient31     6
50-242     Brass Tax24     6
212-31     Close House90     5
111    Cotton Mill60     5
110321    Cross Of Honour32     5
311372    Dawn Commander14     5
322    Diamond Life20     6
111    Divapour24     5
10-211     Felix Yonger17     6
1-1111     Fingal Bay74     6
80811    It´s A Gimme28     5
111-22     Keys25     5
22332    Lord Gale10     6
42-21     Marasonnien53     6
20-111     Molotof89     5
O111     Monksland66     5
FP112     Nagpur20     6
11    Nelson´s Bridge55     5
U8211     Savello119     6
512    Simenon38     5
1-1121     Simonsig28     6
2-1132     Sous Les Cieux31     6
01-911     Sword Of Destiny129     6
2131    The Druids Nephew60     5
110-21     The Tracey Shuffle29     6
41-261     Theatre Guide25     5
1-421     Vesper Bell52     6
004-2     Walter De La Mare162     5
21-342     Theleze52     5

Step 3: Eliminate horses who have not finished first or second in all completed hurdle starts


Eight out of the last ten winners fulfilled this stat, and it can be used to remove a decent chunk of the remaining horses, and leave a more manageable shortlist of contenders:

11    At Fishers Cross24     5
216-12     Ballyrock74     6
111    Cotton Mill60     5
322    Diamond Life20     6
111    Divapour24     5
10-211     Felix Yonger17     6
1-1111     Fingal Bay74     6
80811    It´s A Gimme28     5
O111     Monksland66     5
11    Nelson´s Bridge55     5
1-1121     Simonsig28     6
01-911     Sword Of Destiny129     6
110-21     The Tracey Shuffle29     6
1-421     Vesper Bell52     6


Step 4: Eliminate horses who have not finished first or second in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle (unless have only run once over hurdles)

This stat (8 out of last 10 winners) attempts to capture the quality of the horse required to win the race, but does allow the benefit of the doubt to once raced horses. The fieled is reduced to:

11    At Fishers Cross24     5
216-12     Ballyrock74     6
111    Cotton Mill60     5
111    Divapour24     5
10-211     Felix Yonger17     6
1-1111     Fingal Bay74     6
O111     Monksland66     5
11    Nelson´s Bridge55     5
1-1121     Simonsig28     6


Step 5: Eliminate horses who have not won over 2m 4f+


Nine out of the last ten winners had all won over  atrip of at least 2 and a half miles, and applying this stat removes a further four horses leaving a very small select field of five:

216-12     Ballyrock74     6
1-1111     Fingal Bay74     6
O111     Monksland66     5
11    Nelson´s Bridge55     5
1-1121     Simonsig28     6


Now, strangely enough it looks as though two of that field (Ballyrock & Fingal Bay) will not be taking part, so that leaves a final shortlist of:

Monksland
Nelson's Bridge
Simonsig

The claims of Monksland and Simonsig will probably be obvious to most punters. I'll need to have a closer look at Nelson's Bridge.

Will come back with a final selection(s), after a bit more race watching, and looking at a few other statistical pointers such as:

10 of 10 winners had run in 1 to 6 hurdles that season
9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out
9 of 10 winners started in the first 6 in the betting
8 of 10 winners were NH bred (both exceptions had finished in the first 2 in a listed race on the flat).

Welcome the thoughts of others. Applying this very same approach last year narrowed the field down to:

Bobs Worth
Court In Motion
Oscars Well - very unlucky fourth, after sprawling when leading at the last and losing all chance
Zaidpour

CHAMPION BUMPER

Will go through the trends in the next day or so, but I've had a couple of bets on this one already, and they are:

Clonbanan Lad @ 19

Sir Johnson @ 20

Have to fancy Sir Johnson at 20s if Royal Guardsman is trading at 9.4, after Sir Johnson gave him 7lbs and a decent beating at Aintree.

Having said that, I've not had the best of luck with The Bumper for  agood few years now!

1. The RPR on the racecard is adjusted for the weight to be carried in the race. The lifetime best is adjusted to a set figure like 11 stone or something (might be 12 stone) so that lifetime best is directly comparable between horses - use the lifetime one on the pop up

2. Some races are early closing and the OR will have been set at the closing date. Horses can still be reassessed after the weights were published

hth

Thank you ever so much, done such big spreadsheets and the thought that the RPR was wrong on them was too much to handle but it's all good.

Soooo - regarding the OR, and as an example. Raptor on the horse pop up bit as a Chase OR of 128 yet on the RP and Sportinglife card it is 140. I should use 140?

Beautiful, thank you

Yeah, just figured that.

What is confusing me now though is that RP and Sportinglife have the odd horse on a different OR on their cards.

Niceonefrankie on RP card has an OR of 129 whereas it is 124 on sportinglife, though his weight would make you lean towards the 129 rating? And this is a GB horse.

so if the stat simply says 'officially rated' you should use the office rating rather then what he will actually race off or the figure which he will race from?

Sorry about all the questions