Cheltenham Festival
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JOCI Club's 2012 Cheltenham Festival Race Previews
JOCI Club's 2012 Cheltenham Festival Race Previews
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no problem at all
now that depends on the question. If you require the answer to "Officially rated at least X" then use the OR as given on the pop up If it says "ran off at least XYZ" then use the run off mark on the card ok? |
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Ironically its irrelevant for this horse but important moving forward.
It relates to the Novices' H'Cap Chase and is: 'Officially rated 132-139'. For the JLT is is 'Officially Rated 129-143'. 124 it is then and thats also what's in the Weekender Chelts Paper, as well as sportinglife card. Only RP card which has 129 which as you said is the adjusted OR in comparison to the weight he's racing off. Sportinglife appear to have adjusted for all the irish horses in all races other than the XC where RP Card has sizing oz at 145 whereas sporting life have left at 123. The bizarre thing is that the weekender, which gives the same OR as sporting life for all other races, agrees with RP on this one! |
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there is always a logical answer if you look and think clearly - must be confusing using several sources, no? I stick to the racing post for all that info
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Yeah, just wasnt seeing the 5x tab next to the horse!
Only been into racing for 2/3yrs and have fallen in love but trying to know everything is tricky. Went for first time last year and the highlight of my yr now surrounds being there this Tues and Wed! |
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i remember being like that, wanting to know everything - be aware of information overload and pay attention to what is important to know is my advice
if you really want to learn something useful for the flat, get a copy of Roy Dodds 1-2-3 Turf Handicap Manual - invaluable lessons in there |
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Cheers pal, appreciate that.
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Tuesday March 13 2012
Cheltenham 14:40 JLT Specialty Handicap Chase Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 5yo plus, 3m 110y, Class 1 9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out (6 won) 8 of 10 winners carried 10-5 to 10-13 and so are heavily favoured. 10 of 10 winners were officially rated 127 or above 9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (exception was placed in all 3 h’cap chases over 3M+) 10 of 10 winners had gained 2 to 5 wins over fences 10 of 10 winners were aged 7 to 10 10 of 10 winners were officially rated 143 or below, last 4 winners were rated 142 or 143. 7 of 10 winners had posted their highest chase RPR on last chase start 8 of 10 winners were 1st or 2nd season chasers (2 exceptions were 3rd season chasers that had run in previous festival: 1 placed in this and other 13th in previous Gold Cup) 10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or better chase 7 of 10 winners had won or placed in a listed or graded chase (2 exceptions finished in first 2 in a grade 1 hurdle, other had not run in a better than a class 3) 9 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases in GB & Ire 9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases 9 of 10 winners had won or placed in a hurdle or chase worth 39K+ 8 of 10 winners were priced between 5/1 and 8/1 I think this might be a tough one to crack as there are some decent horses higher up the weights, in good form (Quant & Hold On Julio) whose chances are seemingly diminished by them having to carry too much weight. Most of the key trends are given above, but I've used a select number of them (the top ones) to try and whittle down the field to a manageable number: Form Horse Age 12-021 Quantitativeeasing94 7 5-2514 Time For Rupert45 8 07-134 Walkon25 7 2-3151 Cannington Brook24 8 2P1-56 Noland52 11 2P/133 Cappa Bleu24 10 13232 Hector´s Choice17 8 111-11 Hold On Julio66 9 F/52PP Mon Mome24 12 83134 Consigliere17 9 1PP-21 Zarrafakt52 8 531113 Our Mick25 6 P2F-60 Arbor Supreme90 10 24-874 Magnanimity17 8 61-B03 Matuhi72 9 454511 Leanne9 5x 10 5F94U2 Tullamore Dew24 10 1-P3U0 Divers31 8 2P-12P Mossley25 6 P13077 Tharawaat17 7 1-6213 Fruity O´Rooney45 9 2U5/5- The Package493 9 15PP3 Billie Magern45 8 703PF Shakervilz12 9 222121 Blenheim Brook36 7 62-P35 Mount Oscar17 13 1P/1-4 Summery Justice115 8 9301U Charingworth28 9 2F11F Baile Anrai24 8 F13P3 Golden Chieftain17 7 U5-54P Major Malarkey24 9 P-PF75 Alfie Sherrin24 9 2-1345 Bottman45 7 PF336F Riguez Dancer27 8 221123 Definite Dawn16 8 41332F Pentiffic10 9 15PF-4 Marescsou13 7 412PP Free World121 10 21144 Runshan72 12 28P37 Ballyvesey18 7 03PP6 Le Burf30 11 Step 1 Eliminate horses not finishing in first 3 last time out (excuse fallers or unseatings) - this takes out a sizeable proportion of the field, and kind of guarantees that your shortlist contains horses who are at least in some sort of decent form. Form Horse Age 12-021 Quantitativeeasing94 7 2-3151 Cannington Brook24 8 2P/133 Cappa Bleu24 10 Mar-36 Hector´s Choice17 8 111-11 Hold On Julio66 9 1PP-21 Zarrafakt52 8 Feb-54 Our Mick25 6 61-B03 Matuhi72 9 May-44 Leanne9 5x 10 5F94U2 Tullamore Dew24 10 1-6213 Fruity O´Rooney45 9 15PP3 Billie Magern45 8 222121 Blenheim Brook36 7 9301U Charingworth28 9 2F11F Baile Anrai24 8 F13P3 Golden Chieftain17 7 PF336F Riguez Dancer27 8 221123 Definite Dawn16 8 41332F Pentiffic10 9 Step 2 Eliminate horses set to carry 11 stone and more - they tend to struggle to win such a competitive handicap as this, and tend to be the horses that the handicapper perhaps 'has his eye on'! This already leaves a pretty small field to choose from. Form Horse Age 1-6213 Fruity O´Rooney45 9 15PP3 Billie Magern45 8 222121 Blenheim Brook36 7 9301U Charingworth28 9 2F11F Baile Anrai24 8 F13P3 Golden Chieftain17 7 PF336F Riguez Dancer27 8 5-2505 Definite Dawn16 8 41332F Pentiffic10 9 Step 3 Rule out horses with an OR of below 127 1-6213 Fruity O´Rooney45 9 15PP3 Billie Magern45 8 222121 Blenheim Brook36 7 9301U Charingworth28 9 2F11F Baile Anrai24 8 F13P3 Golden Chieftain17 7 PF336F Riguez Dancer27 8 Step 4 Eliminate horses not having won over 3m+ as their stamina must be assured for a race of this nature. Form Horse Age 1-6213 Fruity O´Rooney45 9 10-11 15PP3 Billie Magern45 8 10-10 222121 Blenheim Brook36 7 10-09 2F11F Baile Anrai24 8 10-04 F13P3 Golden Chieftain17 7 10-03 Step 5 Eliminate horses that have not won between 2 and 5 wins over fences - ideally the horse should have shown good enough form to have been able to win a couple of chases, but not enough to be exposed, and consequently penalised by the handicapper. You're really looking for something with a bit in hand of official figures. Form Horse Age 1-6213 Fruity O´Rooney45 9 15PP3 Billie Magern45 8 222121 Blenheim Brook36 7 2F11F Baile Anrai24 8 I kind of drew a breath at this point, and looked at the shortlist. I was going to apply another stat about the horse needing to have won a class 3 chase or better. I then re-considered, as this would have ruled out the 2 horses I fancied from this shortlist, namely Blenheim Brook and Baile Anrai. I'm taking a bit of a punt here, as I'm going to make an assumption that Baile Anrai was still travelling pretty comfortably in the Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot before coming to grief three out, and if this assumption proves to be correct, then it might point to the chances of a big run here. I'm prepared to pay a little to find out. He was also the only horse to make a race of it with Fingal Bay in the Persian War Novices Hurdle earlier in the season, so there must be a fair level of ability in there somewhere. Secondly, Blenheim Brook looks a nice consistent sort, and although he's done most of his winning in small fields, he does have some decent form tied in with Lie Forritt (who was touted elsewhere on here for this race). Again, there's not a huge amount of confidence behind the selection, but I think he might have at least a fair each way shout. Fruity O'Rooney ran a nice race in defeat at Doncaster recently, though I'm wondering whether this might have taken a bit out of him. Respected nonetheless. I'm not so keen on Billie Magern as his recent form is a little less inspiring. As mentioned earlier, these are more speculative than confident selections, and you could apply the stats / trends in a number of different ways, but the bets are: Blenheim Brook (win & place) 18 & 5.3 Baile Anrai (win & place) 28 & 7.6 I'm not ruling out backing another on the day should either of these not take up the engagement. |
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JOCI
regarding your comments as to backing Boston Bob I had a call this morning from a good friend a Cheltenham fan who was at a preview evening last night where either the detitor or someone very high up at the Racing Post advised that Boston Bob would run in the Neptune, my friend said he spoke in a very authoritive manner, so be careful. |
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Hi JOCI mate
have spent the last few days going through the book and then looking at my ratings and prices. I have already backed some horses ante post and some did make it onto the list. Here's my selections for each race as I have noted them, horses in bold to be backed: Supreme: Montbazon, Tetlami, Monksland (Neptune bound, Trifolium Arkle: Sprinter Sacre Champion Hurdle:Binocular, Hurricane Fly, Zarkandar JLT: Fruity O Rooney, Baile Anrai, Blenheim Brook, Quantitativeeasing (backed ante post) QMCC: Sizing Europe Triumph: Grumeti, Baby Mix RSA: Sir des Champs, Join together, Bobs Worth, First Lieutenant WH: Big Buck's AB: Boston Bob Mount Ben Bulben, Brindisi Breeze Neptune: Simonsig, Monksland Ryan Air: Medermit (ante post 16/1), Great Endeavour (AP 14/1), Poquelin (16/1 now) Gold Cup: Burton Port That is as far as I got. Will be interested to see what you have come up with for your bets and for the remainder of the races That is as |
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ginger64 08 Mar 12 14:31
JOCI regarding your comments as to backing Boston Bob I had a call this morning from a good friend a Cheltenham fan who was at a preview evening last night where either the detitor or someone very high up at the Racing Post advised that Boston Bob would run in the Neptune, my friend said he spoke in a very authoritive manner, so be careful. Let's hope not as the money is aleady down at 8s for the Albert Bartlett. Suppose I could green out now and ri-invest profit when we know where he's going (but I'll probably just take the risk). |
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judorick - looks like we'll be having quite a few similar bets.
 Will be continuing with my updates later this evening then a big push on Saturday and Sunday as there are still quite alot of races I haven't looked at yet. |
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I look forward to it buddy
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joci club cracking thread have been reading with interest...
hey judo are you on line pal?? |
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yes mate I am working on Cheltenham, can I help?
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I'm calling it a night. Been struggling with the Pultney Land H'Cap Chase to be honest, and have perhaps gone down the route of trying to find a plot horse from one of the canny trainers.
Trouble is, the ones I've looked at a by far from being guaranteed a run. I've looked at Grey Soldier and Forty Five, both of whom have much higher hurdle ratings compared to what they have achieved over fences so far, and both trained by 'canny' trainers in Gordon Elliott and Jonjo O'Neill, so might have a wild punt on these two once I've assessed their likelihood of running over the weekend. |
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alright pal - horse i like in kim muir is becauseicantsee..think nina will be on and am very keen...have backed accordingly...have been waiting for this race for the horse for 2 years...the race has become a limited handicap in recent years so won't be giving much weight and nice prep the last day and was in the process of running a nice race in the paddy power gold cup when taking a heavy fall(had jumped well up till then...this will be right up the horses alley... this is more his trip...still think he is still well handicapped and has always gone well for an amateur...anyways up to you what you do but have been studying the race for a couple of weeks and feel the top 5 in the betting are quite weak...anyway big bet for me and hope you have a couple of english pounds on...
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Harry I have already backed it for the Grand National. have you read my "Grand National Analysis - Mordin Style" thread in the Grand National forum? He comes out 3rd best on the National trends plus some other stuff I have found. Think he has a serious chance. Are you certain they will be "off" at Cheltenham?
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well i think this has been on the radar all year as well as the national of which i also have a small interest...the owner trainer has been very keen on him for this race and seems very bullish reading reports...for me this is the animals ideal trip as think he has a touch of class for just a handicapper...anyway judo i always try and pin point races long term, best suited to certain horses and much as i feel he gets 4 miles i think he isn't short of pace and the kim muir in which they normally go quick will suit him ideally...don't think the trainer knows how to do a not off and he worships the creature...this is the race for him for me and think he will be trying his nuts off. had the perfect prep against galileos and think he will go close as always judo in racing i could be wrong...but have had him down for this for a long time and is still weighted to win a good handicap and being as this has become a limited handicap that is also ideal.
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I will certainly have a pop mate as I totally respect your angle and I know the horse has been looked after for this time of year.... thanks for the heads up because I probs wouldn't bother with the race
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no worries...hope your wrong on the needing the run angle with national in mind, but think he is training him to win both and here's hoping that is the case...sad but big follower of amateur races judo...no one else is interested, which gives people who study them ie me an edge...
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joci apologies for talking over your thread...
out of interest why was sous le cieux not on the radar in the neptune?? couldn't figure out why?? regards |
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because he has not won at 2 miles 4 furlongs at a guess. And agreed apols to JOCI
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No worries, all good racing chat. Last day at work today!!
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Judorick, Sous Les Cieux won over 2m 4f in November.
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Sous Les Cieux was eliminated on account of not having finished either 1st or 2nd in all completed hurdle starts (was 3rd at Leopardstown behind Cash And Go and Dylan Ross).
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Really struggling to fathom the Pulteney Land Investments Novices´ Handicap Chase.
Getting nowhere with my analysis. Thinking about trying the angle of last time out winner, with course and distance win, and that points me in the direction of Alan King's Bless The Wings. |
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if you can't get an angle, leave it and move on to other races - switching your attention will allow your unconscious to process the information and when you come back to it it may seem clearer
Done the NH Chase yet? Or started the handicaps (Muir, Byrne, Annual)? |
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I still have a lot of work to do over the weekend on the Pulteney, and need to add the weights into my analysis which i'm not doing now as finishing second bottle of shiraz, but one's i'll be concentrating on are:
Ackertac misses 'won last time' but was 2nd to Triolo D'Alene a few lengths and if im correct, was giving 6lbs and will carry llb less than that horse last time. May still have too much weight though but from 3 career wins, 2 on good Harpsy Cord - should hit all stats other than age. 6 rather than 7 Tiger O'Toole - Well in on hurdling form. Only just got to grips with fences - is he well in? Points to note: 6 winners sent off 9/2 - 12/1. All were first 5 in betting. Last 3 winners won last time out Divers only winner to have won more than once over fences 13 of 14 winners in the novices handicaps (this and fred winter) were beaten on first two starts in new discipline. Only Divers bucks the trend |
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Nope, that's for tomorrow and Sunday! Had a small wager on Bless The Wngs having wathced him win (nicely) a large field handicap over course and distance at Cheltenham last time out.
Carrying a bit more weight than I'd have liked but there you go. Like the 4 miler, so will have a crack at that tomorrow morning. |
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Judo, for what its worth, in what i've done so far 4 horses hit all trends for NH
Alfie Spinner Blenheim Brook Teaforthree Universal Soldier Had a nibble of BB ew and TFT will be bet on the day I feel as so far ahead on OR. Also respect the Join Together form |
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WED 14 MAR 2012
141st Year of National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup (Amateur Riders´ Novices´ Chase) (CLASS 2) (5yo+) A stamina sapping four miles for novices and amateur jockeys - sounds like a nightmare! Here we go, attempting to narrow down the field using stats / trends. FORM HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR 24123 Alfie Spinner25 7 11-06 Nick Williams 135 133 153 1-4133 Allee Garde53 7 11-06 W P Mullins — 63 156 1432P0 Benbane Head25 8 11-06 Martin Keighley 136 103 152 1-712P Ben´s Folly25 7 11-06 Tim Vaughan 127 122 137 222121 Blenheim Brook37 7 11-06 Lucinda Russell 134 90 145 23/2-0 Bob ´N´ You21 9 11-06 Ian Williams — — — 54616 Brunswick Gold22 7 11-06 Steve Gollings 121 113 131 152153 Cottage Oak131 9 11-06 Gordon Elliott — 124 136 121362 Court Red Handed47 7 11-06 Sarah Humphrey 129 128 140 4/114 Daffern Seal203 8 11-06 D K Weld — 123 142 212242 Four Commanders24 6 11-06 M F Morris — 131 147 58-421 Glens Boy56 8 11-06 Henrietta Knight 116 106 129 513516 Gorge26 10 11-06 Anthony Cosgriff 120 109 131 111P4 Graduation Night26 6 11-06 Jamie Snowden 125 107 143 2-1111 Harry The Viking76 7 11-06 Paul Nicholls 136 140 154 33314 Iron Chancellor26 7 11-06 Alan King 129 112 141 011F6U Leggy Lad38 9 11-06 Stephen McConville — 115 140 421331 Lively Baron19 7 11-06 Donald McCain 120 131 146 45213 Monbeg Dude56 7 11-06 Michael Scudamore 120 111 133 7-4611 Nodebateaboutit55 7 11-06 Tom George 111 85 126 716223 Not So Sure Dick18 7 11-06 George Baker 108 116 126 4FP14 Oscar Close55 7 11-06 George Baker 112 117 129 429265 Our Island25 7 11-06 Tim Vaughan 130 137 139 P73F20 River D´Or46 7 11-06 Sophie Leech 110 114 129 180776 Sensational Sema20 8 11-06 A J Martin — 77 100 1/1-21 Soll42 7 11-06 W P Mullins — 124 150 4-F124 State Benefit24 7 11-06 Nicky Henderson 128 124 136 281F3P Strongbows Legend22 7 11-06 Charlie Longsdon 131 131 145 321P1 Teaforthree18 8 11-06 Rebecca Curtis 146 151 161 1-2P1 Universal Soldier52 7 11-06 Charlie Longsdon 138 114 154 143P5 Viking Blond25 7 11-06 Nigel Twiston-Davies 137 133 153 212254 Your Busy18 9 11-06 J A Nash — 120 143 12-13F Mid Div And Creep19 12 10-13 Lawney Hill 122 57 129 2F23P4 Our Victoria17 7 10-13 Colin Bowe — 116 147 Step 1 - Eliminate horses not finishing in the first 2 last time out (7/10) In any race, I like to look at decent rcent form, and so I'd naturally be keen on omitting horses who didn't put up a good showing last time out. I have left in horses who fell / unseated to give them the benefit of the doubt. This cuts the field down to the following: 222121 Blenheim Brook37 7 121362 Court Red Handed47 7 212242 Four Commanders24 6 58-421 Glens Boy56 8 2-1111 Harry The Viking76 7 011F6U Leggy Lad38 9 421331 Lively Baron19 7 7-4611 Nodebateaboutit55 7 1/1-21 Soll42 7 321P1 Teaforthree18 8 1-2P1 Universal Soldier52 7 12-13F Mid Div And Creep19 12 Step 2 - Eliminate horses aged 5 or 6 or those having fewer than 3 chase starts This stat is intended to weed out horses who may not yet be ready for a race of this challenge, and perhaps lack the experience. This further reduces the field by 2. 222121 Blenheim Brook37 7 121362 Court Red Handed47 7 58-421 Glens Boy56 8 2-1111 Harry The Viking76 7 011F6U Leggy Lad38 9 421331 Lively Baron19 7 1/1-21 Soll42 7 321P1 Teaforthree18 8 1-2P1 Universal Soldier52 7 12-13F Mid Div And Creep19 12 Step 3 - Eliminate horses who have not run in the last 50 days 8 of the last 10 winners had the benefit of a recent warm up race to blow away the cobwebs and fine tune them for this race. I'm happy to apply that stat to the remaining field, though note that this rules out a few fancied horses like Harry The Viking & Universal Soldier and leaves a final shortlist of 7 runners. 222121 Blenheim Brook37 7 121362 Court Red Handed47 7 011F6U Leggy Lad38 9 421331 Lively Baron19 7 1/1-21 Soll42 7 321P1 Teaforthree18 8 12-13F Mid Div And Creep19 12 To these horses a then applied a number of stats, awarding a point for each stat satisfied: (a) 1st or 2nd last time out (b) aged 7 or 8 (c) 4 to 8 runs since August (d) won over 3m+ (e) run in 3-9 chases (ex-PTPs) (f) made debut in bumper, hurdle race or PTP (g) finished 1st or 2nd in 3m+ chase I eliminated horses who failed to achieve at least 5 of the above 7 trends / stats, to leave a shortlist of: 222121 Blenheim Brook 121362 Court Red Handed 421331 Lively Baron 1/1-21 Soll 321P1 Teaforthree The first horse for the chop is Court Red Handed, as I just didn't get the right feel from the last couple of races run by this horse, and am not sure the form is there to make him a major player in this race (currently 70/1 here). I'm also prepared to overlook Lively Baron, on the basis that the horse should in theory be well held by Harry The Viking (is this a cse for bringing HTV into consideration?) 222121 Blenheim Brook 1/1-21 Soll 321P1 Teaforthree This is my final shortlist. I've backed Blenheim Brook for another race, and would be disappointed to see him line up here and would give him some consideration on the day if he did. Soll seems to be well fancied, but I'm not so convinced. Most of the winning has been on soft-heavy ground in Ireland, and i'd need further evidence of strong staying attributes to ant to part with cash. Could be a cut above, but I'm just not tempted. This leaves my selection: Teaforthree I always look for horses with guaranteed stamina, and was encouraged to see the comment 'stayed on dourly from 3 out' (3m Chepstow, soft) when winning his last race. He comes into the race in good form, has some decent Cheltenham experience (including Festival experience - Albert Bartlett); got close to Join Together at Cheltenham in November and the only blip appears to be his 'pulled up' in the Feltham (which would not be totally unexpected against the likes of Grands Crus), and soo is forgiven. All that is good enough to make him my selection. |
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I did this race last night too and came to pretty much the same conclusion apart from dismissing on the 50 day rule. Firstly, 8 from 10 is not that strong and we have no idea of how many who ran failed. So I have had to include Harry the Viking who fits every other trend. I tend to use the 84 day rule in most caes as this rarely eliminates a winner in non handicaps . Teaforthree fits all the trends but I am very worried about the going for him - all his performances coming on soft and heavy.
good work mate |
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Yes, concerned about Harry The Viking myself, and might have a 'saver' on the day, depending on how things go. For Teaforthree, I'm hoping the extra distance will perhaps mitigate his perceived preference for softer ground.
Forgot to mention that he also comes out top on all of Topspeed, OR and RPR ratings. |
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Heard whispers about a horse called Clonbanan Lad running in the Champion Bumper. However it is not confirmed to run just yet, was told Monday
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Have backed Clonbanan Lad (with Sir Johnson) for the Bumper, so hope he does turn up, but have also read he was 50/50 to run.
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Yes, should have made that a bit clearer. I was told the decision will be made on Monday if he runs or not.
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Technically Harry The Viking has only had 2 chase starts. He has of course had 3 PTP runs as well.
Where do you stand on including PTP in the 'run over fences at least 3 times' stat |
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re the NH Chase 50 day rule, runners 59 days+ last 8 years FYI
horse name-horse suffix-horse age-sp-position-0-00-days since run Billywill-IRE-10-100/1-P-11-11-57 Madam's Man-GB-8-66/1-12-11-11-53 Celestial Gold-IRE-6-33/1-2-11-11-78 Drombeag-IRE-6-8/1-3-11-07-92 Keepatem-IRE-9-9/2-8-12-00-67 Go White Lightning-IRE-10-100/1-4-11-07-102 Classic Native-IRE-7-12/1-P-11-11-89 Willie John Daly-IRE-8-14/1-7-12-00-61 Far From Trouble-IRE-7-7/2-3-11-11-105 Dolmur-IRE-6-25/1-P-11-11-87 Mac Three-IRE-8-12/1-F-11-11-60 Butler's Cabin-FR-7-33/1-1-12-00-96 High Cotton-IRE-12-50/1-4-11-07-120 Not Left Yet-IRE-6-16/1-F-11-11-160 Bengo-IRE-7-50/1-U-11-07-61 Sizing Australia-IRE-6-25/1-9-11-07-76 Parsons Pistol-IRE-7-7/1-F-11-11-53 Abbeybraney-IRE-9-11/1-P-11-06-98 Gentle Ranger-IRE-8-28/1-F-11-06-53 Tinakellylad-IRE-6-20/1-F-11-06-55 Aberdale-IRE-7-10/1-P-11-06-112 Chicago Grey-IRE-8-5/1-1-11-06-78 Alfa Beat-IRE-7-11/2-4-11-06-182 Sona Sasta-IRE-8-11/1-6-11-06-56 10/1 and under in bold |
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not technically, he has only had two chases! blimey missed that - have to scrub him now! thanks buddy
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THU 15 MAR 2012
Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle) (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (5yo+)CH4 3miles Some of the key trends (courtesy of Racecaller): 9 of 10 winners were aged 6 to 9 In the past 8 runnings horses carrying 10-9 or less have won 7 and filled 24 of 32 places Horses officially rated 129 to 142 have won 8 of the last 10 4 of 10 winners won last time out (5 were unplaced last time) 9 of 10 winners had their last run between 20 to 50 days ago 9 of 10 winners had run 3 to 7 times that season 10 of 10 winners had won 2 to 5 hurdles races 6 of 10 winners had run in 2 to 4 handicap hurdles (3 of 4 exceptions finished in first 6 in previous Pertemps) 10 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicap hurdles 9 of 10 winners had won a Class 3 or higher hurdle 8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (2 exceptions had finished 2nd over 3M+) 5 of 10 winners were NH bred 5 of 10 winners were rated 70 to 85 on the flat Current field of horses: 132341 Restless Harry26 8 510-P7 Ashkazar80 8 131-12 Poungach74 6 122-1 Our Father90 6 2F55P Russian War138 9 P/2368 Pettifour61 10 54F23 Rick25 8 41/33 Sergent Guib´s39 6 411-97 Sir Kezbaah27 8 5P504 Cape Tribulation26 8 Nov-25 Sonofvic74 7 61F54 Pineau De Re39 9 Mar-75 Catch Me39 10 900509 Buena Vista27 11 782425 Across The Bay47 8 96710 Houblon Des Obeaux26 5 P8171 Tenor Nivernais24 5 7-P4P0 Quartz De Thaix15 8 27232 Saphir River131 6 8F131P Palace Jester26 7 2414 Reindeer Dippin26 10 Feb-20 Cantlow15 7 50225 Kayf Aramis26 10 06-336 Barwell Bridge34 6 4-1116 47 Thehillofuisneach26 8 1-0690 46 Prince Erik32 8 51222P 45 Scotsbrook Cloud26 7 6011 44 Bellflower Boy49 9 23211 43 Grand Vision26 6 481/01 42 Star Of Angels68 8 0-1316 41 Knight Pass47 6 2009 40 Qulinton110 8 F-37P9 39 Sunnyhillboy26 9 2-1541 38 Jetson77 7 14-111 37 Poole Master13 5x 7 2-U534 36 Adams Island49 8 1PP11 35 Oscar Prairie19 7 1291P7 34 Ostland33 7 11514 33 Sivola De Sivola47 6 7010P 32 Dorset Square48 8 PP-233 31 Wolf Moon110 9 P-PF75 30 Alfie Sherrin26 9 8319-8 29 Shoegazer145 7 71027 28 Frontier Dancer53 8 1-31P4 27 Galaxy Rock47 8 7251 26 Dooney Rock64 8 20090 25 Global Power15 6 15851 24 Allthekingshorses22 6 2F442 23 Hard To Swallow34 6 230P-1 22 Fiulin25 7 88-172 21 Well Hello There89 6 22446 20 Arctic Court33 8 1F32P 19 Tour Des Champs26 5 332/62 18 Volador26 8 387-31 17 Secret Tune34 8 21208 16 Decoy22 6 F-5P24 15 Glenwood Knight54 9 137-02 14 The Pier68 6 0-695 13 Aachen61 8 43106 12 Safran De Cotte26 6 U62720 11 Devotion To Duty22 6 1-1280 10 Eastlake26 6 8U1U20 9 Ely Brown22 7 141-03 8 Turner Brown19 8 66611 7 Merry King25 5 1-712P 6 Ben´s Folly26 7 Apr-26 5 Carribs Leap13 7 322119 4 Tarvini12 7 P04525 3 Stow27 7 8763- 2 Open Day339 6 946990 1 Duroob39 10 Step 1 - Look for horses with an OR in the range 129 - 142. This stat alone can be used to cut down the field significantly. It's usually very difficult for horses carrying big weights to make an impression here, as there's normally something well handicapped and unexposed further down the weights. Furthermore, the very lowly rated horses are potentially unlikely to be able to take a race of this competitive nature, haven't shown much form, and the majority of them won't be making the cut either. This leaves the following: 5P504 Cape Tribulation26 8 Nov-25 Sonofvic74 7 61F54 Pineau De Re39 9 1634521 Catch Me39 10 900509 Buena Vista27 11 782425 Across The Bay47 8 96710 Houblon Des Obeaux26 5 P8171 Tenor Nivernais24 5 7-P4P0 Quartz De Thaix15 8 27232 Saphir River131 6 8F131P Palace Jester26 7 2414 Reindeer Dippin26 10 Feb-20 Cantlow15 7 50225 Kayf Aramis26 10 06-336 Barwell Bridge34 6 4-1116 47 Thehillofuisneach26 8 1-0690 46 Prince Erik32 8 51222P 45 Scotsbrook Cloud26 7 6011 44 Bellflower Boy49 9 23211 43 Grand Vision26 6 481/01 42 Star Of Angels68 8 0-1316 41 Knight Pass47 6 2009 40 Qulinton110 8 F-37P9 39 Sunnyhillboy26 9 2-1541 38 Jetson77 7 14-111 37 Poole Master13 5x 7 2-U534 36 Adams Island49 8 1PP11 35 Oscar Prairie19 7 1291P7 34 Ostland33 7 11514 33 Sivola De Sivola47 6 7010P 32 Dorset Square48 8 PP-233 31 Wolf Moon110 9 P-PF75 30 Alfie Sherrin26 9 8319-8 29 Shoegazer145 7 71027 28 Frontier Dancer53 8 1-31P4 27 Galaxy Rock47 8 7251 26 Dooney Rock64 8 20090 25 Global Power15 6 15851 24 Allthekingshorses22 6 2F442 23 Hard To Swallow34 6 230P-1 22 Fiulin25 7 88-172 21 Well Hello There89 6 22446 20 Arctic Court33 8 1F32P 19 Tour Des Champs26 5 Step 2 - consider horses in the 6-9 age bracket, as anything below 6, and they are likely to be a little inexperienced for this, and anything over 9 and potentially no longer at their very best (though Buena Vista might have something to say about that)! This further reduces the field to the following: 5P504 Cape Tribulation26 8 45962 Sonofvic74 7 61F54 Pineau De Re39 9 782425 Across The Bay47 8 7-P4P0 Quartz De Thaix15 8 27232 Saphir River131 6 8F131P Palace Jester26 7 774347 Cantlow15 7 06-336 Barwell Bridge34 6 4-1116 47 Thehillofuisneach26 8 1-0690 46 Prince Erik32 8 51222P 45 Scotsbrook Cloud26 7 6011 44 Bellflower Boy49 9 23211 43 Grand Vision26 6 481/01 42 Star Of Angels68 8 0-1316 41 Knight Pass47 6 2009 40 Qulinton110 8 F-37P9 39 Sunnyhillboy26 9 2-1541 38 Jetson77 7 14-111 37 Poole Master13 5x 7 2-U534 36 Adams Island49 8 1PP11 35 Oscar Prairie19 7 1291P7 34 Ostland33 7 11514 33 Sivola De Sivola47 6 7010P 32 Dorset Square48 8 PP-233 31 Wolf Moon110 9 P-PF75 30 Alfie Sherrin26 9 8319-8 29 Shoegazer145 7 71027 28 Frontier Dancer53 8 1-31P4 27 Galaxy Rock47 8 7251 26 Dooney Rock64 8 20090 25 Global Power15 6 15851 24 Allthekingshorses22 6 2F442 23 Hard To Swallow34 6 230P-1 22 Fiulin25 7 88-172 21 Well Hello There89 6 22446 20 Arctic Court33 8 Step 3 - look to horses that have finished in the first 2 last time out, as an indicator of good recent form. 27232 Saphir River131 6 6011 44 Bellflower Boy49 9 23211 43 Grand Vision26 6 481/01 42 Star Of Angels68 8 2-1541 38 Jetson77 7 14-111 37 Poole Master13 5x 7 1PP11 35 Oscar Prairie19 7 7251 26 Dooney Rock64 8 15851 24 Allthekingshorses22 6 2F442 23 Hard To Swallow34 6 230P-1 22 Fiulin25 7 88-172 21 Well Hello There89 6 This is a more manageable field, but potentially one where not many of the remaining horses are going to be guaranteed a run. I've applied the following to each horses to give me a kind of ranking of their chances: (a) horses last run should ideally have been within the last 51 days (b) an added bonus if they won last time out (c) should ideally have run between 3 and 7 times this season (battle hardened but not worn out) (d) the horse should have managed between 2 and 5 hurdle wins (enough to show ability but not enough to have been clobbered by the handicapper) (e) should have won less than 4 handicap hurdles (again, not likely to be in the grip of the handicapper) (f) should ideally have won a class 3 hurdle or better (g) should have won over at least 3 miles Applying to above 7 factors to the remaining field gave me the following ranking: Grand Vision 7 Oscar Prairie 7 Allthekingshorses 7 Jetson 6 Bellflower Boy 5 Poole Master 5 Cut off point Star Of Angels 4 Dooney Rock 4 Hard To Swallow 4 Fiulin 4 Saphir River 3 Well Hello There 2 I'm happy to dismiss those with fewer than 5 positives, which leaves a final shortlist of: Grand Vision Oscar Prairie Allthekingshorses Jetson Bellflower Boy Poole Master I must confess to having no idea at this stage whether any or all of the above will be turning up on the day, but if they do, these will be the ones I'll be concentrating on. Whilst the top three pass all the trends used, the one I have a sneaky feeling for is David Pipe's Poole Master, who I suspect could be one of Pipe's well handicapped plot horses, and I've had a small bet on him so far. Selection: Poole Master Any of the others will be given strong consideration on the day, should they make the field. |