cheers, i'm massive on SDC in the Jewson.

You'll find it very different, especially in style but also in content and nuance.

I agree it's useful, but it's very black and white. Personally I wouldn't worry about backing Kauto 3 months after his best ever performance - he just had an off day. As for Duguib....

Ok Tory l see your looking at the race from a different angle to what l was? Out of interest do you have the RP stats for the NH Chase as l'm trying to get an angle on this race but l'm struggling at the moment.

TUE 13 MAR 2012               
Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)   

Link to latest card:

http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=546179&r_date=2012-03-13&big_race=Y&raceTabs=#raceTabs=lc_

FORM    HORSE     
11-113     Al Ferof   
0-1321     Astracad   
1-35    Bagber   
634356    Baily Green   
26115    Blackstairmountain   
1-11F1     Bog Warrior
210-P1     Call The Police
6257-1     Cristal Bonus
2-1U21     Cue Card
16-2U5     Escort´men
323137    Foildubh
0-F222     For Non Stop
2-1F11     Kid Cassidy
12122    Kumbeshwar
11244    Lucky William
4U411F     Menorah
12232    Nearest The Pin
21-151     Pacha Du Polder
27-112     Peddlers Cross
F1-F2     Realt Mor
P-8551     Sanctuaire
33-141     Shot From The Hip
11-111     Sir Des Champs
113-11     Sprinter Sacre
12700P     Tajweed
733214    Zaynar
8111U1     Alasi
           
This is a preliminary analysis given the Game Spirit Chase has been re-scheduled for next week.

Below are most of the key factors that need to be considered when looking for the winner of the Arkle, the championship for the speedster novice chasers on Day 1 of the Festival. In last year's preview, this method narrowed down the field to three runners, Captain Chris (winner), Finian's Rainbow and Medermit. Sadly, my final selection was Medermit.

The key trends seem to revolve around age (7 year olds preferred), recent form over fences, and prior hurdles form. I have selected the 8 factors below, and assigned 1 point if  a horse satifies the trend, and zero points if the horse fails to satisfy the trend.

(1) 7 & 8 year olds have supplied 7 of last 10 winners, including the last 5 (only included 8 year olds if they had won a grade 1 over hurdles).
(2) 9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 on all completed chase runs
(3) 10 of 10 winners had run in 1 to 5 chases
(4) 7 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase (2 exceptions had yet to run in a graded chase and other had finished runner-up 3 times in grade 1 chases)
(5) 9 of 10 winners had finished in first 2 a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
(6) 9 of 10 winners were officially rated 140+ over hurdles
(7) 6 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (2 of 4 exceptions were having first course start and other two had run here once, finishing 2nd in Triumph & 4th in Neptune)
(8) 10 of 10 winners have come from the first 5 in the betting

So, a horse satisfying all trends could earn a maximum of 8 points, whilst a horse satifying no trends would get 0 points. Here are the findings:

Al Ferof 7
Menorah    7
Peddlers Cross    7
Cue Card 6
Sprinter Sacre 6
Zaynar 6
Blackstairmountain 5
For Non Stop 5
Kumbeshwar 5
Sanctuaire 5
Sir Des Champs 5
Cristal Bonus 4
Kid Cassidy 4
Shot From The Hip 4
Bog Warrior 3
Escort´men 3
Realt Mor 3
Alasi 3
Astracad 2
Call The Police    2
Nearest The Pin    2
Bagber 1
Baily Green 1
Lucky William 1
Pacha Du Polder    1
Tajweed    1
Foildubh 0

As a first elimination stage, I would have little hesitation in eliminating those horses with a score of  3 or less. This includes Bog Warrior, who has been the subject of support on this forum. I don't feel his hurdles form gives him a chance of winning this, and also given the comments from the trainer around his participation, I'm not losing any sleep over passing him by. This leaves us a much reduced field of 14 to concentrate on.

Al Ferof 7
Menorah    7
Peddlers Cross    7
Cue Card 6
Sprinter Sacre 6
For Non Stop 5
Blackstairmountain 5
Kumbeshwar 5
Sanctuaire 5
Zaynar 6
Sir Des Champs 5
Cristal Bonus 4
Kid Cassidy 4
Shot From The Hip 4

More to follow, when I will hone in on what I consider to be the key trends and the other form factors, and also when we learn more, should the Game Spirit Chase get the go-ahead.

After the recent forfeit stage, the shortlisted horses remaining are listed below (lost For Non Stop, Kumbeshwar, Sanctuaire, Zaynar & Shot From The Hip).

Al Ferof 7
Menorah    7
Peddlers Cross 7
Cue Card 6
Sprinter Sacre 6
Blackstairmountain 5
Sir Des Champs 5
Cristal Bonus 5
Kid Cassidy 4

Cristal Bonus is elevated to 5 after an impressive, wide margin victory in the Grade 2 Pendil Novices Chase. Thought this horse jumped really well, if out to the left at some fences, which might be no bad thing at Cheltenham. Might be Jewson bound though.

JOCI

will get on it and post here

World Hurdle Entries Last RPR


Barwell Bridge   136
Big Buck´s       174
Carlito Brigante 115
Crack Away Jack  130
Cross Kennon     151
Dynaste          163
Featherbed Lane  142
Final Approach   119
Five Dream       139
King Of The Night 104
Mikael D´Haguenet 153
Mourad           161
Oscar Whisky     167
Our Father       147
Recession Proof  out injured
Saphir River     only raced in france no RPR
Smad Place       158
So Young         155
The Giant Bolster 167   yeah right lol
Thousand Stars    162
Zaidpour          163
Quevega           159
Voler La Vedette  150

note: LOTS of these achieved significantly higher RPRs on their penultimate starts

World Hurdle

The key factors / trends I'm looking at regarding this race are as follows:

9 of 10 winners have been aged 6 to 8
10 of 10 winners finished in the first two on all hurdles starts that season
10 of 10 winners had run 8 to 23 hurdles
10 of 10 winners had run 1 to 4 times that season
10 of 10 winners attained an RPR of at least 156 last time
7 of 10 winners had won over course and distance (2 others having first course start)
9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (exception was Inglis Drever in 2005 who had won over 2M 5F but not run over further than that)
8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 hurdle (other 2 had finished 2nd in a grade 1)
9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle that season (exception had only 1 run, in a handicap hurdle, that season & had won a grade 1 on penultimate start)
7 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days (3 exceptions had won the previous year's race)
7 of 10 winners had previously finished in the first 2 at the Festival
10 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting

Applying one point if the horse satisfies any of the above criteria, we get the folowing ranking (out of a maximum of 12):

Big Buck´s     10
Thousand Stars     9
Zaidpour     9
Oscar Whisky     8
Vol La Vedette     8
Cross Kennon     7
Dynaste     7
Quevega     7
Carlito Brig     6
Crack Aw Jack     6
Mourad             6

Cut off point

Final Approach     5
Mik D´Haguenet     5
Smad Place     5
Barwell Bridge     4
Feathrbed Lane     4
Five Dream     3
King O T Night     3
Our Father     3
Saphir River     3
So Young     3
Giant Bolster     3
Recess Proof     1

I think anything below a score of 6 can be discounted, as the horses just don't satisfy enough of the key trends, and as Quevega is virtually certain to be defending her title in the Mares race, then this would leave an initial shortlist of:

Big Buck´s     10
Thousand Stars     9
Zaidpour     9
Oscar Whisky     9
Vol La Vedette     8
Cross Kennon     7
Dynaste     7
Carlito Brig     6
Crack Aw Jack     6
Mourad             6

Big Buck's

The consummate professional. Keeps pulling out more when challenged and a dour stayer who once he gets his head in front has proven very difficult to pass. Occasionally has a flay spot during races, but this seems to be less prevalent in the last couple of seasons. Satisfies more of the key trends thna any of his rivals (only falling down on age - most winners are up to 8 years of age, and on account of having more than 23 hurdle races, though this is slightly harsh as this number includes hurdle races in France before crossing the Channel). In short, I'm going to have to look very hard to find something to dethroe Big Buck's. The only way I can see it happening is (a) Big Buck's is under the weather / has an off day or (b) we find a horse in the field with that rare combination of abundant stamina, and the speed to quicken at the end of the race.

Thousand Stars

Unsure whether Thousand Stars will go for this race or the Champion Hurdle (I believe the latter). I felt this horse was destined for big things this season, and it certainly looked that way first time out with an impressive performance in the Morgiana Hurdle, given a positive front running ride. Failed to progress from there and subsequently beaten by Unaccompanied, and again by Hurricane Fly over two miles (though not disgraced on either occasion). Has won over the longer trips, but I have a somewhat cynical suspicion that Thousand Stars might be put in the Champion Hurdle to make the pace for stablemate Hurricane Fly.

Zaidpour

Nice horse with a decent win ratio. Has looked good in his novice season, and also has run well this season, giving Voler La Vedette 7lbs and a beating over three miles. Whilst this is decent form, I feel it's some way below what will be required to win the World Hurdle. Another nagging doubt is that when given the acaid test at Cheltenham last season in his biggest test to date, he was found wanting. Has seemingly improved again this season though, but by enough to trouble Big Buck's? I doubt it.

Oscar Whisky

Could be a big danger to Big Buck's if he can conserve enough energy to be able to use his speed to pick off Big Buck's up the hill. Has been in top form this season following an unlucky fall 1st time out (would have won). Has winning form over 2m 4f, but the jury is out as to whether he will have the stamina to last home in a truly run race, due to some conflicting evidence.

Voler La Vedette

A really admirable mare who stays and is tough. Has form tied in with both Zaidpour and Mourad in Ireland, and looks to have improved a little this season. Has won three times (beating Mourad over 3 miles) then was beaten by Zaidpour last time out. Think she falls short in terms of quality to be winning a World Hurdle, and has also fallen short against the likes of Quevega in the past, so it's a leap of faith to believe she's capable of upsetting Big Buck's here.

Cross Kennon

Ran very well to finish fourth in this race at a huge price last season. Subsequently disappointed over fences, and when 35+ lengths behind Big Buck's in the Long Walk at Ascot. Also well beaten by Dynaste and Five Dream in that race, which suggests that he should not be involved in the shake up this season as he was last year. Put in a more encouraging performance behind Restless Harry in The Rendlesham Hurdle last time out, but surely has too much on his plate here.

Dynaste

An improved performer for David Pipe this season, Dynaste has rane very well but come up short against Big Buck's twice this season, once trying to run the sting out of Big Buck's from a long way out (and paying the price) and also trying to take Big Buck's for speed at the end of the Cleeve Hurdle, getting a lot closer but ultimately going down by 7 lengths (receiving 4 lbs). Will face a tough assignment again and this time off levels. Could be the type to run into a place if not trying to take on Big Buck's and leaving it late to swoop up the hill.

Carlito Brigante

Has run well at the Festival before (won Coral Cup), and trainer is to be respected. Not shown much this season, and I have my doubts that this is a sufficiently dour stayer to trouble the leading players and has been beaten soundly by Big Buck's at Aintree last season and by Quevega at the Punchestown Festival over the longer trip. Don't fancy it. 

Crack Away Jack

Bob Hope and no hope.

Mourad

Ran well here last year, but beaten by Big Buck's and also again in the Cleeve Hurdle. Ran a nice race to win the Boyne Hurdle from Mikael D'Haguenet last time out, but no reason to think he should turn around two comprehensive defeats at the hands of Big Buck's, though could challenge for a place.


Conclusion

Nothing should be able to stop Big Buck's on known form, unless Oscar Whisky can really stay and have the late race speed to pick off Big Buck's, especially if the race is a slowly run affair. Dynaste, if ridden with some restraint, and pushing on 2 out could sneak into a place.

Selection: Big Buck's

Great summary as always JOCI.
I won't be dismissing Cross Kennon from the place market - he needs a serious test of stamina and improves for better ground and the hill, I'm convinced he would have gone past BB given another furlong in last years renewal....

JOCI, may i ask for your interpretation on something?

RP book uses a few different forms of language when describing required pre-race RPR rating.

In the main it is 'pre-race RPR of at least', 'RPR of at least', 'achieved pre-race RPR of at least', 'recorded a pre-race RPR of at least'.

Presume as it doesnt actually mention the words 'achieved or recorded in last race' that this is meant to mean this is the current RPR rating, be it for respective chase or hurdles rating depending on the race?

Am guessing that different people compile stats for different races and simply use different language to mean the same thing but wanted to check

Cheers

Cheers JOCI

I was bang certain it meant for the form of race they are going for i.e chase RPR or hurdle RPR.

Someone i know who also does stats and does a blog for Chelt (very good and will post link if people would like) believes it to mean that they had achieved it that season, which even if not correct, is possibly a better guide than their career best so I may go down that route

Judorick - would you be able to help with the last time out RPR over fences for the Ryanair field please:

Albertas Run1
Apt Approach
Captain Chris
Champion Court
Forpadydeplasterer
French Opera
Gauvain
Great Endeavour
I´m So Lucky
I´msingingtheblues
Jack The Giant
Kalahari King
Kauto Stone
Little Josh
Magnanimity
Mahogany Blaze
Medermit
Noble Prince
Poquelin
Quel Esprit
Realt Dubh
Riverside Theatre
Roi Du Mee
Rubi Light
Somersby
Tartak
Tranquil Sea
Wishfull Thinking
Blazing Tempo

Many thanks!

Albertas Run           161
Apt Approach           144
Captain Chris          PU
Champion Court         155
Forpadydeplasterer     157
French Opera           162
Gauvain                155
Great Endeavour        142
I´m So Lucky           150
I´msingingtheblues     144
Jack The Giant          93
Kalahari King           PU
Kauto Stone            120
Little Josh             PU
Magnanimity            148
Mahogany Blaze         FELL
Medermit               170
Noble Prince           165
Poquelin               172   
Quel Esprit            157
Realt Dubh             165
Riverside Theatre      172
Roi Du Mee             152
Rubi Light             169
Somersby               169
Tartak                 111
Tranquil Sea           139
Wishfull Thinking      138

here you go
Blazing Tempo

What was the RPR for Blazing Tempo please?

Thanks - at this stage, based purely on the stats / trends, then I make Poquelin the clear pick. However, need to do my write up and short list etc tomorrow before coming to a decision.

Will do this weekend when I've done a few more races. The big handicaps will need to wait a bit til the fields have been whittled down a bit.

Teeny tiny point JOCI, in an otherwise brilliant contribution to the forum. SE has won the QMCC just the once, last year. Stood out at the prices, as history has shown that the previous years Arkle winner always has a cracking chance. CCs non-participation means that that stat will not be tested.
Keep up the great work.

JOCI,do you know how many winners you had from the selections/thread last season?

Need to look back at the thread, but there were quite a few races where I ended up having a non runner in the handicaps. I know I managed 8 winners whilst at Cheltenham (my best haul in a while) but not all were the ones I put up on the thread.

Regarding Oscar Whisky, I think it was his run at Aintree which kind of led me to think he might not be a dour stayer, as it looked like he was being hauled in close home by Thousand Stars. Not compelling evidence of course, and he had had a tough race at Cheltenham a couple of weeks before, but it's enough to put seeds of doubt in my mind.

Here were my selections from last year:

Tuesday

13:30 Supreme Novices - Cue Card (Recession Proof e/w)

14:05 Arkle - Medermit

14:40 Stewart Family Spinal Research H'Cap Chase - Skippers Brig (e/w) [likely non runner] & Adams Island (e/w)

15:20 Champion Hurdle - Binocular (non runner) - Hurricane Fly

16:00 Cross Country Chase - Garde Champetre (Lord Nellerie e/w)

16:40 Mares Hurdle - Quevega (NAP)

17:15 Centenary Novices H'Cap Chase - The Knoxs (e/w)

Wednesday

13:30 National Hunt Chase - Quito De La Roque (non runner) Chamirey (e/w)

14:05 Neptune Novices Hurdle - Oscars Well

14:40 RSA Chase - Time For Rupert (NAP)

15:20 Queen Mother Champion Chase - Master Minded

16:00 Coral Cup - Final Approach & King Of The Night (e/w)

16:40 Fred Winter - Plan A & Domination (e/w)

17:15 Champion Bumper - Knight Pass

Thursday

13:30 Jewson - Wishfull Thinking

14:05 Pertemps Final - Barafundle (e/w) & Shoegazer (e/w)

14:40 Ryanair - Poquelin

15:20 World Hurdle - Big Buck's (NAP)

16:00 Byrne Group Plate - Quartz De Thaix, Quantitativeeasing (e/w) & Tharawaat (e/w)

16:40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir - Mostly Bob (e/w) & Isn't That Lucky (e/w) - Junior a probably win bet on day

Friday

13:30 Triumph Hurdle - Unaccompanied & Marsh Warbler (e/w)

14:05 County Hurdle - Final Approach 10/1, Alarazi & Bothy (e/w)

14:40 Albert Bartlett - Back In Focus

15:20 Gold Cup - Imperial Commander

16:00 Foxhunters - Baby Run (NAP)

16:40 Martin Pipe Hurdle - Shoegazer (e/w) & Sir Des Champs (e/w) - very tentative - will have a closer look on the Thursday

17:15 Grand Annual - Shorecraes (e/w0, Anquetta (e/w) & Peak Raider (e/w)

Managed to get a few winners in, and a few non runners.