Cheltenham Festival
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JOCI Club's 2012 Cheltenham Festival Race Previews
JOCI Club's 2012 Cheltenham Festival Race Previews
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CHAMPION HURDLE
Managed to get the winner last year. The stats suggested Binocular last year, and he was my selection, but on hearing about him being a non runner, my next best selection was Hurricane Fly who duly obliged. Let's see what the stats say this season: 1 Preferred age 6-8 2 24 of 28 winners won last time out (consider this very important) 3 10 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days (a fairly recent run has been very important) 4 9 of 10 winners had run 3 to 5 times that season (it's good to be a bit 'battle hardened' if you're going to win this race) 5 8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 hurdle 6 9 of 10 winners had run at least 10 times over hurdles (there's little substitute for experience) 7 previous Cheltenham winning form is a positive 8 a win during the current season is highly desirable Ranking all of the current field in terms of these stats gives a ranking as follows: Binocular 8 Celestial Halo 7 Hurricane Fly 7 Mikael D´Haguenet 7 Thousand Stars 7 Grandouet 6 Zaidpour 6 Clerk´s Choice 5 Final Approach 5 Olofi 5 Peddlers Cross 5 Zarkandar 5 Brampour 4 Oscars Well 4 Overturn 4 So Young 4 Starluck 4 Staying Article 4 Kalann 3 Rock On Ruby 3 I would be keen to go a stage further, and add an additional bonus point to those horses who won last time out, and another to those horses who have shown sufficient class to win a geade 1 hurdle outside of novice company. The revised ranking is then as follows: Binocular 10 Hurricane Fly 9 Thousand Stars 8 Celestial Halo 7 Grandouet 7 Mikael D´Haguenet 7 Zaidpour 7 Peddlers Cross 6 Zarkandar 6 Clerk´s Choice 5 Final Approach 5 Olofi 5 Overturn 5 So Young 5 Brampour 4 Oscars Well 4 Starluck 4 Staying Article 4 Kalann 3 Rock On Ruby 3 This gives a basic ranking based on the stats I have selected. I'm quite happy to cut the field down by half by eliminating all those horses who received a score of lower than 6, which leaves a field of as follows: Binocular 10 Hurricane Fly 9 Thousand Stars 8 Celestial Halo 7 Grandouet 7 Mikael D´Haguenet 7 Zaidpour 7 Peddlers Cross 6 Zarkandar 6 So, who can I happily discard now. Well, first to go is Celestial Halo. Despite being an admirable horse, most would agree that the horse now lacks the gears to win a Champion Hurdle. Brushed aside by Binocular yesterday, Celestial Halo would have suffered the same fate at the hands of Grandouet earlier in the season, had the latter not taken a tumble. Second to get the chop is Mikael D´Haguenet. Despite recapturing some of his verve this season with a couple of wins, the horse has never really reached the heights that his novice form suggested he might, and it would be a great leap of faith to suggest he could win the blue riband event this season (also readily beaten by Mourad today albeit over a longer trip). Trainer may also be having second thoughts about travelling over after today. I thought Thousand Stars was going to make up into a really decent staying hurdler this season, but he's been campaigned over shorter trips. A very good front running performance first time out this season suggested big things were to come from this horse, but he's been relatively disappointing since then, being outpointed by Unaccompanied, then brushed aside 10 lengths by Hurricane Fly last time out. That's not Champion Hurdle winning form, and he's overlooked. By all accounts, Peddlers Cross will be taking on Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle Chase, and even if he did re-route to the Champion Hurdle for some reason, he would have had far from an ideal prep, so I'm comfortable in bypassing this horse now. Finally, I don't believe Zaidpour possesses the necessary class to be a Champion Hurdle winner. He has an admirable win to run ratio, but to me seems like a horse that can dominate lesser opposition, but when upped in class and when push comes to shove, he's not the horses I'd want to be pinning my hopes on. That leaves a reduced shortlist of: Binocular 10 Hurricane Fly 9 Grandouet 7 Zarkandar 6 Further thoughts to come on this final shortlist in due course. Update: 10th March Grandouet, who was a long range fancy of mine misses the race due to injury. Binocular to be respect on his last run and the fact he's benn there, done it before. However, having been very keen on him last year, I cannot now be sure whether Binocular will run his best race every time. Zarkander did well to win the old Tote Gold Trophy and is also a Festival winner. The bet though has to be Hurricane Fly, who in his last several races races has looked pretty close to untouchable. Admittedly, no great price, but a winner is a winner. Backed him last year after Binocular's defection, and am staying with him once more. Selection: Hurricane Fly |
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came to the same conclusions - only two that I could back and at the prices it has to be Binocular even though taking on the Fly is scary
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Have you looked at the Pertemps yet?
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TUE 13 MAR 2012
Glenfarclas Handicap Chase (A Cross Country Chase) (CLASS 2) (5yo+) 3m7f Number of runners: 41 5 of 7 winners won on their last run over fences 6 of 7 winners had run in past 40 days 6 of 7 winners had run 2 to 4 times that season 7 of 7 winners had run at least 11 times over fences 6 of 7 winners had run in no more than 11 handicap chases 6 of 7 winners had won over 3M+ (exception had won over 2M 6F & been placed in 3 of 4 runs over CD) 5 of 7 winners had previously won or placed over this CD (1 exception was having first start and other fell on only run on the Cross Country course) 7 of 7 winners had an OR > 126 5 of 7 winners carried 10-8 or more 6 of 7 winners were priced 13/2 or below and came from first 3 in the betting 7 of 7 winners have been in the age range 9-12 NO. HORSE AGE WGT 147317 Uncle Junior95 11 11-12 631441 Scotsirish37 11 11-09 Feb-12 Garde Champetre37 13 11-08 81-F03 Sizing Australia31 10 11-01 3215U2 Halley52 5 11-00 88500 Dancing Tornado45 11 10-13 15P0O Balthazar King95 8 10-09 540O40 A New Story16 14 10-09 346519 Double Dizzy52 11 10-08 17P-1 Midnight Haze96 10 10-07 8-13P1 Fortification18 9 10-06 344664 Jacks Island37 9 10-05 4-151P Maljimar175 12 10-05 32P33P Tally Em Up19 9 10-05 PP8-90 Dream Alliance73 11 10-04 P24U64 Some Target24 8 10-01 8/P26O 12 Wedger Pardy95 11 10-01 7-4P19 11 Gone To Lunch129 12 10-00 0-P242 10 Saddlers Storm30 10 9-12 P-2UP6 9 Ballyfitz24 12 9-11 65485 8 De Danu37 9 9-11 2558 7 Chamirey24 9 9-11 4P344 6 Arabella Boy20 7 9-10 29-3U 5 Heads Onthe Ground37 15 9-07 0FPR65 4 Glenstal Abbey4 8 9-04 590320 3 Askmeroe54 9 9-02 P1814P 2 Somatic123 8 9-00 708-63 1 Doctor Pat23P 8 8-13 Using the 11 stats / trends above, I added one point every time a horse satisfied one of the criteria. I then 'weighted' this to give gretaer importsnace to the most compelling stats (i.e. those with the highest % of occurence). This is the ranking I came up with, and I will be basing my selection on this ranking, as I don't have a really strong opinion about this race. Sizing Australia 8.71 Scotsirish 8.57 Uncle Junior 7.00 Garde Champetre 6.86 Midnight Haze 6.29 Fortification 6.29 Saddlers Storm 5.57 Dancing Tornado 5.43 Chamirey 5.43 A New Story 5.14 Jacks Island 4.71 Tally Em Up 4.71 Dream Alliance 4.71 Wedger Pardy 4.71 Gone To Lunch 4.71 Ballyfitz 4.71 De Danu 4.71 Double Dizzy 4.57 Maljimar 4.57 Balthazar King 4.43 Some Target 3.71 Halley 3.57 Arabella Boy 3.57 Doctor Pat 3.57 Heads Onthe Ground 3.43 Askmeroe 2.86 Glenstal Abbey 1.71 Somatic 0.86 Selection: Sizing Australia Might put him in an exacta with Scotsirish. |
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Terrible typing skills!!
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Haven't really done many handicaps yet, waiting for the decs to cut the workload down
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Understand....am up against time constraints to get mine finished before setting off Monday lunchtime.
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I agree with the X-country selections - an easy dutch bet imo
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JOCI
you are like a nachine, I think everyone who reads these threads I think you call them owes you a real big thank you, your analysis is well thought out and your marking systems are excellant. I have already backed a whole host of horses, a considerable number are not running, but I will be using a lot of your work added to my own thoughts to come up with some decent bets, I think this year I will also go for a placepot on day one with a number of horses in each race, what would you include on day one, perhaps other people will throw up what they think and we could see how we get on. Thanks again for all your hard work, it makes a really good read. |
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Cheers - I'm just basing stuff on trends that other perople have been good enough to put up on other sites etc, so credit to those guys. Hope you can make a few quid. It's quite time consuming doing the work but I like the analytical approach and it helps focus the mind.
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THU 15 MAR 2012
Byrne Group Plate (Handicap Chase) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)CH4 2m5f Number of runners: 15 of the last 17 winners carried no more than 11 stone Only 1 winning favourite since 1981 21 of the last 23 winners were rated no higher than 141 18 of the last 20 winners finished in the first 4 last time out 11 of the last 13 winners had run more than 16 times over fences The last 11 winners started at double price figures 9 of the last 11 favourites finished unplaced Only 1 Irish trained winner since 1951 16 of the last 19 winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival before Step 1 - Eliminate horses rated 141 and higher FORM HORSE AGE F6-140 Great Endeavour96 8 1446453 Tartak47 9 165-21 Giorgio Quercus54 7 541-19 Rebel Du Maquis232 7 U1231 Champion Court74 7 456951 Cannington Brook26 8 11188/ Jack The Giant706 10 13232 Hector´s Choice19 8 83134 Consigliere19 9 214712 Micheal Flips27 8 211323 Notus De La Tour46 6 61-B03 Matuhi74 9 7010F Finger Onthe Pulse96 11 13-892 Dan Breen12 7 5F94U2 Tullamore Dew26 10 8P-50 Crack Away Jack26 8 112111 Hunt Ball19 7 1-P3U0 Divers33 8 2-0385 Holmwood Legend26 11 F5U3P Gilbarry54 7 8112/0 Salut Flo96 7 3P111 Quincy Des Pictons79 8 732380 Mad Moose26 8 P2332 Ackertac54 7 9301U 22 Charingworth30 9 29P54 21 Fine Parchment12 9 FP-3P4 20 Gansey19 10 5U2340 19 Vino Griego26 7 F11P2 18 Educated Evans19 7 11PPP0 17 Schindler´s Gold61 10 25671U 16 Glam Gerry49 8 P28-P 15 Aimigayle26 9 125743 14 Rileyev12 7 311611 13 Niceonefrankie13 5x 6 51318 12 Carpincho47 8 22U322 11 The Cockney Mackem22 6 1P-P1P 10 Radetsky March15 9 2-1345 9 Bottman47 7 PF336F 8 Riguez Dancer29 8 724303 7 Life Of A Luso19 8 94-436 6 Pigeon Island79 9 Apr-72 5 Kilcrea Asla26 11 41332F 4 Pentiffic12 9 412PP 3 Free World123 10 P-P457 2 Plein Pouvoir13 9 41F233 1 Ballyoliver7 8 Step 2 Eliminate horses finishing outside of the top 4 last time out (completed starts) FORM HORSE AGE 2-0385 Holmwood Legend26 11 F5U3P Gilbarry54 7 8112/0 Salut Flo96 7 3P111 Quincy Des Pictons79 8 732380 Mad Moose26 8 P2332 Ackertac54 7 9301U 22 Charingworth30 9 29P54 21 Fine Parchment12 9 FP-3P4 20 Gansey19 10 5U2340 19 Vino Griego26 7 F11P2 18 Educated Evans19 7 11PPP0 17 Schindler´s Gold61 10 25671U 16 Glam Gerry49 8 P28-P 15 Aimigayle26 9 125743 14 Rileyev12 7 311611 13 Niceonefrankie13 5x 6 51318 12 Carpincho47 8 22U322 11 The Cockney Mackem22 6 1P-P1P 10 Radetsky March15 9 2-1345 9 Bottman47 7 PF336F 8 Riguez Dancer29 8 724303 7 Life Of A Luso19 8 94-436 6 Pigeon Island79 9 Apr-72 5 Kilcrea Asla26 11 41332F 4 Pentiffic12 9 412PP 3 Free World123 10 P-P457 2 Plein Pouvoir13 9 41F233 1 Ballyoliver7 8 FORM HORSE AGE 3P111 Quincy Des Pictons79 8 P2332 Ackertac54 7 9301U 22 Charingworth30 9 29P54 21 Fine Parchment12 9 FP-3P4 20 Gansey19 10 F11P2 18 Educated Evans19 7 25671U 16 Glam Gerry49 8 125743 14 Rileyev12 7 311611 13 Niceonefrankie13 5x 6 22U322 11 The Cockney Mackem22 6 PF336F 8 Riguez Dancer29 8 724303 7 Life Of A Luso19 8 Apr-72 5 Kilcrea Asla26 11 41332F 4 Pentiffic12 9 41F233 1 Ballyoliver7 8 I've always found this one a tough nut to crack, but following a couple of the key trends, I've whittled the field down by eliminating those horses rated > 141, as the stats suggest they face a stiff challenge. Combine this with the requirement to have finished first 4 last time out, and you can get the field down to a manageable level. The one horse of the remainder that really stood out for me was Quincy Des Pictons, not so much due to a thorough examination of the trends, but more so with the manner of his last couple of wide margin victories. Given that we're a long way from being certain about running plans, I had a small bet on him to bring home the bacon. Selection: Quincy Des Pictons In fact, after watching Quincy Des Pictons last couple of races, and due to the fact that he has another entry in the JLT Specialty Chase, I went and had a few quid on him for that too (where's he's trading a little shorter). Will need to look at this race again when the final decs are out, but at this stage, Quincy is the one for me. |
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my two selections are on your short list JOCI, need to see if they make the cut. Can you guess who they are?
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Niceonefrankie & Educated Evans?
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close
Rileyev and Educated Evans |
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Anything put you off my selection?
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won too frequently and got slung up the weights, possibly? need to look closer, who trains it too? Alan Jones who the hell is he? And horse been winning wide margins on soft going which I am always wary of... not for me mate but wtf do I know?
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OK looks like he might still have a bit in hand to me.
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on soft I might agree but on the likely going I think he will be scupered. Is a son of the French sire Kadalko and they all want soft. But at the prices in this race you can back 3 or 4 wih no worries
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Yep, another race to have a look at on the day, but nice if you can get a big price in advance.
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in fact if you go NRNB you can back most of the ones on the long short list as some of them wont get in you will get your money back, and those that do get in you might be able to trade at lower prices
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FRI 16 MAR 2012
Christie´s Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup (CLASS 2) (5yo+)CH4 3m2f110y Horses aged 6 to 10 have a combined record of 9-10-138 8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out 10 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ 6 of 10 winners (last 4) won last time out 9 of 10 winners ran in the past 35 days 6 of 10 winners had won at least 2 chases under rules (4 exceptions had run in less than 7 chases) 9 of 10 winners (last 7) had run in no more than 3 handicap chases 10 of 10 winners had run no more than 3 times under rules that season 8 of 10 winners had won or placed in a class 3 or better (2 exceptions had yet to run in better than class 6) NO. HORSE 43111 Amicelli27P 7P-11 Barbers Shop19 111-52 Blackstaff28 P11-13 Border Fusion12P 472-61 Boxer Georg43 12-521 Bradley28 37-11 Chapoturgeon26P 448/21 Cloudy Lane31 111P1 Count Salazar19P 1F-P1F Description27 0/1122 Eleazar28 11-121 Enter Paradise28 44P11 For The Staff26P 1UF-44 Herons Well28 U-3PP4 Joaaci13P 11P1- Just Amazing341 1-3F14 Keenan´s Future264 4-211U Lorikarad23 1-P111 Merchant Royal57 1U-111 Monkerty Tunkerty50 161244 Not Before Eight33 35O119 Oca De Thaix15 P1221 Offshore Account26P 1/14-3 On The Fringe33 24282 Oscar Delta19P 211-P1 Picaroon13P 1B/11- Roulez Cool657 11S111 Rowdy Rampage224 112P1 Salsify33 1-F33P Surenaga27 1211U1 Tammys Hill26P 255F4 The General Lee15 F-9442 Turko27 532221 Up There19P 111F1 My Flora26P 11-363 Theatre Diva15 Step 1 Eliminate horses not finishing in the first 3 last time out (completed starts) NO. HORSE 43111 Amicelli27P 7P-11 Barbers Shop19 111-52 Blackstaff28 P11-13 Border Fusion12P 472-61 Boxer Georg43 12-521 Bradley28 37-11 Chapoturgeon26P 448/21 Cloudy Lane31 111P1 Count Salazar19P 1F-P1F Description27 0/1122 Eleazar28 11-121 Enter Paradise28 44P11 For The Staff26P 1UF-44 Herons Well28 U-3PP4 Joaaci13P 11P1- Just Amazing341 1-3F14 Keenan´s Future264 4-211U Lorikarad23 1-P111 Merchant Royal57 1U-111 Monkerty Tunkerty50 161244 Not Before Eight33 35O119 Oca De Thaix15 P1221 Offshore Account26P 1/14-3 On The Fringe33 24282 Oscar Delta19P 211-P1 Picaroon13P 1B/11- Roulez Cool657 11S111 Rowdy Rampage224 112P1 Salsify33 1-F33P Surenaga27 1211U1 Tammys Hill26P 255F4 The General Lee15 F-9442 Turko27 532221 Up There19P 111F1 My Flora26P 11-363 Theatre Diva15 Step 2 Eliminate horses not aged 6 to 10 years old NO. HORSE 43111 Amicelli27P 7P-11 Barbers Shop19 111-52 Blackstaff28 P11-13 Border Fusion12P 472-61 Boxer Georg43 12-521 Bradley28 37-11 Chapoturgeon26P 448/21 Cloudy Lane31 111P1 Count Salazar19P 1F-P1F Description27 0/1122 Eleazar28 11-121 Enter Paradise28 44P11 For The Staff26P 11P1- Just Amazing341 4-211U Lorikarad23 1-P111 Merchant Royal57 1U-111 Monkerty Tunkerty50 P1221 Offshore Account26P 1/14-3 On The Fringe33 24282 Oscar Delta19P 211-P1 Picaroon13P 1B/11- Roulez Cool657 11S111 Rowdy Rampage224 112P1 Salsify33 1211U1 Tammys Hill26P F-9442 Turko27 532221 Up There19P 111F1 My Flora26P 11-363 Theatre Diva15 Step 3 Eliminate horses not having won over 3m+ (rules out Chapoturgeon!) NO. HORSE 7P-11 Barbers Shop19 111-52 Blackstaff28 472-61 Boxer Georg43 12-521 Bradley28 37-11 Chapoturgeon26P 111P1 Count Salazar19P 1F-P1F Description27 11-121 Enter Paradise28 44P11 For The Staff26P 11P1- Just Amazing341 4-211U Lorikarad23 1-P111 Merchant Royal57 1U-111 Monkerty Tunkerty50 1/14-3 On The Fringe33 24282 Oscar Delta19P 211-P1 Picaroon13P 1B/11- Roulez Cool657 11S111 Rowdy Rampage224 112P1 Salsify33 1211U1 Tammys Hill26P F-9442 Turko27 111F1 My Flora26P Step 4 Rankings At this stage I did a weighted average ranking based on the following factors: 6 of 10 winners (last 4) won last time out 9 of 10 winners ran in the past 35 days 6 of 10 winners had won at least 2 chases under rules (4 exceptions had run in less than 7 chases) 9 of 10 winners (last 7) had run in no more than 3 handicap chases 10 of 10 winners had run no more than 3 times under rules that season 8 of 10 winners had won or placed in a class 3 or better (2 exceptions had yet to run in better than class 6) The rankings came out as follows: Barbers Shop 4.80 Bradley 4.80 My Flora 4.80 Enter Paradise 4.20 On The Fringe 4.20 Salsify 4.00 Just Amazing 3.90 Roulez Cool 3.90 Rowdy Rampage 3.90 Cut-off point Oscar Delta 3.60 Count Salazar 3.40 For The Staff 3.40 Tammys Hill 3.40 Boxer Georg 3.30 Description 3.30 Turko 3.30 Merchant Royal 3.10 Blackstaff 2.80 Monker Tunkerty 2.50 Choosing a cut-off point of 3.9 points, my intial shortlist was reduced to: Barbers Shop 4.80 Bradley 4.80 My Flora 4.80 Enter Paradise 4.20 On The Fringe 4.20 Salsify 4.00 Just Amazing 3.90 Roulez Cool 3.90 Rowdy Rampage 3.90 A bit of qualitative judgment now: I find it hard to see either Roulez Cool or Just Amazing overcoming absences of 657 and 341 days respectively. Looking at some collateral form, a couple of the above shortlist have been well beaten or held by others in this race, so are rejected. These would be My Flora - well held by Chapoturgeon last time out, Bradley - should be well held by Monkerty Tunkerty & Enter Paradise (beaten well by My Flora). Finally, I'm going to drop On The Fringe after failing to win last time out (beaten by Salsify, but not by too much and givign a bit of weight). This leaves me with a final shortlist of: 7P-11 Barbers Shop 11S111 Rowdy Rampage 112P1 Salsify I've backed Barbers Shop & Salsify so far. Barbers Shop has the best 'older' form of all the horses in the field, and could take some pegging back if he recaptures his old sparkle, and he's won his last 2 since switching to Hunter Chases. Salsify won nicely last time out and also won the Irish Racing Post Champion Hunters Chase back in May which is often a good pointer to this race. I will take a look at Rowdy Rampage should he line up on the day, as seems to have done nothing wrong, and might be able to run a nice race at a decent price. I must confess, am a little worried by Chapoturgeon, as seems to be in good form, but the fact he's not won over the trip kicks him out. |
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The long Rowdy Rampage absence though is a big negative.
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Best of Luck JOCI with your picks great reading!
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TUE 13 MAR 2012
Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) Link to latest card: http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=546179&r_date=2012-03-13&big_race=Y&raceTabs=#raceTabs=lc_ FORM HORSE 11-113 Al Ferof 0-1321 Astracad 1-35 Bagber 634356 Baily Green 26115 Blackstairmountain 1-11F1 Bog Warrior 210-P1 Call The Police 6257-1 Cristal Bonus 2-1U21 Cue Card 16-2U5 Escort´men 323137 Foildubh 0-F222 For Non Stop 2-1F11 Kid Cassidy 12122 Kumbeshwar 11244 Lucky William 4U411F Menorah 12232 Nearest The Pin 21-151 Pacha Du Polder 27-112 Peddlers Cross F1-F2 Realt Mor P-8551 Sanctuaire 33-141 Shot From The Hip 11-111 Sir Des Champs 113-11 Sprinter Sacre 12700P Tajweed 733214 Zaynar 8111U1 Alasi This is a preliminary analysis given the Game Spirit Chase has been re-scheduled for next week. Below are most of the key factors that need to be considered when looking for the winner of the Arkle, the championship for the speedster novice chasers on Day 1 of the Festival. In last year's preview, this method narrowed down the field to three runners, Captain Chris (winner), Finian's Rainbow and Medermit. Sadly, my final selection was Medermit. The key trends seem to revolve around age (7 year olds preferred), recent form over fences, and prior hurdles form. I have selected the 8 factors below, and assigned 1 point if a horse satifies the trend, and zero points if the horse fails to satisfy the trend. (1) 7 & 8 year olds have supplied 7 of last 10 winners, including the last 5 (only included 8 year olds if they had won a grade 1 over hurdles). (2) 9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 on all completed chase runs (3) 10 of 10 winners had run in 1 to 5 chases (4) 7 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase (2 exceptions had yet to run in a graded chase and other had finished runner-up 3 times in grade 1 chases) (5) 9 of 10 winners had finished in first 2 a grade 1 or 2 hurdle (6) 9 of 10 winners were officially rated 140+ over hurdles (7) 6 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (2 of 4 exceptions were having first course start and other two had run here once, finishing 2nd in Triumph & 4th in Neptune) (8) 10 of 10 winners have come from the first 5 in the betting So, a horse satisfying all trends could earn a maximum of 8 points, whilst a horse satifying no trends would get 0 points. Here are the findings: Al Ferof 7 Menorah 7 Peddlers Cross 7 Cue Card 6 Sprinter Sacre 6 Zaynar 6 Blackstairmountain 5 For Non Stop 5 Kumbeshwar 5 Sanctuaire 5 Sir Des Champs 5 Cristal Bonus 4 Kid Cassidy 4 Shot From The Hip 4 Bog Warrior 3 Escort´men 3 Realt Mor 3 Alasi 3 Astracad 2 Call The Police 2 Nearest The Pin 2 Bagber 1 Baily Green 1 Lucky William 1 Pacha Du Polder 1 Tajweed 1 Foildubh 0 As a first elimination stage, I would have little hesitation in eliminating those horses with a score of 3 or less. This includes Bog Warrior, who has been the subject of support on this forum. I don't feel his hurdles form gives him a chance of winning this, and also given the comments from the trainer around his participation, I'm not losing any sleep over passing him by. This leaves us a much reduced field of 14 to concentrate on. Al Ferof 7 Menorah 7 Peddlers Cross 7 Cue Card 6 Sprinter Sacre 6 For Non Stop 5 Blackstairmountain 5 Kumbeshwar 5 Sanctuaire 5 Zaynar 6 Sir Des Champs 5 Cristal Bonus 4 Kid Cassidy 4 Shot From The Hip 4 More to follow, when I will hone in on what I consider to be the key trends and the other form factors, and also when we learn more, should the Game Spirit Chase get the go-ahead. After the recent forfeit stage, the shortlisted horses remaining are listed below (lost For Non Stop, Kumbeshwar, Sanctuaire, Zaynar & Shot From The Hip). Al Ferof 7 Menorah 7 Peddlers Cross 7 Cue Card 6 Sprinter Sacre 6 Blackstairmountain 5 Sir Des Champs 5 Cristal Bonus 4 Kid Cassidy 4 Update March 11th Final shortlist based on latest declarations: Al Ferof 7 Menorah 7 Cue Card 6 Sprinter Sacre 6 Blackstairmountain 5 Cristal Bonus 4 Kid Cassidy 4 I've tried to find a compelling reason why Sprinter Sacre shouldn't be winning this and I can't really find one. Al Ferof to probably stay on up the hill to follow him home. Selection: Sprinter Sacre Let's hope he's the real deal and the next great chaser to hit the scene! |
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WED 14 MAR 2012
Coral Cup (A Handicap Hurdle) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m5f Number of runners: Horses aged 5 to 7 have a combined record of 9-24-182. Horses aged 8 or older have a combined record of 1-6-87. Horses officially rated 130 to 142 have won the last 4 renewals and filled 12 of 16 places in past 4 renewals. 7 of 10 winners won their last start over hurdles 10 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in their last 3 runs 10 of 10 winners had run at least twice that season 9 of 10 winners had previously won 2 to 4 hurdles races 9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won 1 or 2 hurdles races that season (exception had yet to run over hurdles that season) 10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or better hurdle 6 of 10 winners had won or placed in a listed or graded hurdle 9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 2F+ 8 of 10 winners had run in 4 or fewer handicap hurdles 9 of 10 winners had won 0 or 1 handicap hurdle (exception had won 2) 8 of 10 winners were second season hurdlers 9 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race worth 12K+ There are still a cast of millions in this race, so we're really second guessing at the moment, but at this early stage, if you: (a) eliminate horses that haven't run during the current season (b) eliminate horses not aged 5 to 7 (c) eliminate horses outside the OR range 130-142 This narrow down the field considerably as shown below: Step 1 Eliminate horses that haven't won so far in the current season (63) P8171 Tenor Nivernais23 5 10-10 0-3214 First Fandango109 5 10-10 FP112 Nagpur20 6 10-10 153800 Batonnier46 6 10-09 51222P Scotsbrook Cloud25 7 10-08 611P26 75 Plan A46 5 10-08 223111 74 Tap Night11 5x 5 10-08 181341 73 Arab League75 7 10-07 80811 72 It´s A Gimme28 5 10-07 31144 70 Bally Legend17 7 10-07 113019 66 Abergavenny26 5 10-06 1321 63 Bourne25 6 10-06 0-1316 61 Knight Pass46 6 10-06 14-111 59 Poole Master12 5x 7 10-06 11117 58 Grandads Horse122 6 10-05 41121 57 Cape Dutch32 5 10-05 13424 56 Well Regarded60 7 10-05 235312 55 Cotillion32 6 10-05 25117 54 Ohio Gold60 6 10-05 12315 53 Make A Track46 6 10-05 13009 52 Street Entertainer55 5 10-05 116231 50 Ixora151 6 10-04 P11478 46 Court In Session33 7 10-03 85P211 45 Changing Times39 6 10-03 113 40 Perpetually122 6 10-01 100700 39 Martin Scruff17 6 10-01 351320 37 Double Ross26 6 10-01 230P-1 36 Fiulin24 7 10-01 Now of ths list above, many of them would struggle to get into the race, so the one that interests me most is Tenor Nivenais, who has the right weight and won last time out, has won over the right kind of distance. Obviously, a race to focus on when you have the final field, but long range selection: Tenor Nivenais - currently 19.5 on here |
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^ it's 33/1 with VC & Lads. All decent form on ground far softer than will encounter next week but GL.
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OK good - no bet yet, wait til closer to the time.
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battonier's form figures wrong?
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by the way I strongly recommend you keep a list of all your strong qualifiers, ones that meet all the trends, that run but do not win
in my experience quite a few will win at Aintree. Few seasons ago I had Oedipe and Gwanako as qualifiers in the Jewson Novices handicap at Cheltenham and both got beat. They both won at Aintree and there have been many more. |
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Good point judo. Sunnyhillboy was one that springs to mind, as a handicap hurdler.
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thieveslikeus 11 Mar 12 15:58
battonier's form figures wrong? Thanks for that - yes, right enough something went wrong with the cut and paste. I think I will add him alongside Tenor Nivenais now as ones to look out for if making the final field: Tenor Nivenais & Batonnier |
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WED 14 MAR 2012
Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo) 2m110y Number of runners: 6 of 7 winners have been officially rated 124 or higher and they have also accounted for 21 of 28 places 5 of 7 winners won last time out (2 exceptions unplaced in grade 2) 6 of 7 winners had run 1 to 3 times over hurdles in GB&Ire 7 of 7 winners had run since start of February 7 of 7 winners had run in no more than one h'cap hurdle (5 were making h'cap debut and other 2 won their only handicap hurdle start) 5 of 7 winners had run on the flat (2 exceptions had first start in a hurdle in France) 3 of 3 winners that ran on flat in GB&Ire were rated 89+ and had run in a class 1 flat race 2 of 2 Irish-trained winners had yet to win over hurdles Simply filtering on: (a) Eliminate horses that failed to win last time out (b) Eliminate horses with an OR of < 124 Leaves you with a pretty manageable shortlist. 731 Argocat55 4 11-08 3431 Edeymi27 4 11-07 425541 Kapga De Cerisy26 4 11-06 211 Kazlian64 4 11-02 F42F1 Vendor74 4 11-01 2111 Royal Bonsai41F 4 10-12 241 Lemon Drop Red28 4 10-11 341 30 Red Inca21 4 10-10 The two I am drawn to are Kazlian and Vendor. Kazlian covers most of the trends, started out in France, would have been one of the better flat horses in this race, and is trained by David Pipe, which are all positives for me. Vendor has been something of a talking horse and I might have a small cover bet on him Selections : Kazlian & Vendor |
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So, where are we so far:
Tuesday 1:30 Montbazon @ 14 & Tetlami @ 16.5-18.5 2:05 Sprinter Sacre @ 2.1-2.16 2:40 Baile Anrai @ 18 & Blenheim Brook @ 28 (not confident either will be running now) 3:20 Hurricane Fly (will back on the day) 4:00 Sizing Australia @ 6 (may have saver on Scotsirish) 4:40 Quevega @ 1.66 (will be lumping on again if one or more of the above come in) 5:15 Bless The Wings @ 8.8 & Quincy Des Pictons @ 20 Wednesday 1:30 Teaforthree @ 8.4 2:05 Monksland @ 7 2:40 Join Together @ 10.5 3:20 Sizing Europe @ 2.04-2.1 4:00 no bet yet but will look at Tenor Nivenais & Batonnier if running on day 4:40 no bet yet but looking at Kazlian & Vendor 5:15 Clonbanan Lad @ 19-21 & Sir Johnson @ 20 |
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Brillant stuff Joci great read,even though still sifting thru Paul Jones book re handicaps.
Im on 7 on your selections,lets hope we are correct matey have a great week if going. |
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Sorry re Coral if running Molotof stats stack up really well,as does Mcmanus runner nr bottom of weights so have to back now!
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Molotof hasnt won over 2M 2F - 2M 6F which is a 9/10 stat and the only real negative for him.
Interesting one with Kazlian is that for the Fred Winter 7/7 were beaten first two starts over hurdles or hadnt even won before getting there. Kazlian won on second start. |
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KAZLIAN - thought this would need very soft ground to be anywhere near its best , but may not need to be .
An excellent read from the start . May the gods be looking down on you next week . The very best of luck to ya sir .  |
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This is brilliant JOCI :)
will every cheltenham race be covered in this thread>? |
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Probably unlikely now as I might have run out of time for some of the Thursday / Friday races. Takes quite a while to do each one. Might do another tonight, maybe one tomorrow before heading off to Cheltenham.
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Jewson Novices´ Chase (Registered As The Golden Miller Novices´ Chase) Grade 2 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)
11-113 Al Ferof54 7 1-11F1 Bog Warrior33 8 22111 Bold Sir Brian33 6 10-P12 Call The Police32 9 U1231 Champion Court74 7 257-11 Cristal Bonus19 6 221P2 Duke Of Lucca19 7 F2221 For Non Stop27 7 5012B2 Gift Of Dgab46 8 363053 Imperial Shabra11 8 18123 Lambro32 7 214712 Micheal Flips27 8 27-112 Peddlers Cross79 7 111211 Red Tanber12 9 11-111 Sir Des Champs47 6 75-112 Solix74 6 32144U Zaynar19 7 12122 Kumbeshwar47 5 Nothing in the way of trends to go on for the 'new' Jewson. The top 2 wont be running, so rule them out. Zaynar has had his limitations exposed. The ones I'm focussing on are: Champion Court & Solix (both have Cheltenham form and their form was boosted by Invictus) For Non Stop - won nicley at Newbury last time out - if there was a horse you could almost guarantee would run into a place it would be this one Peddlers Cross - could be very good, but a bit under a cloud after his injury, and taking in this rather than a battle over 2 miles with Sprinter Sacre Sir Des Champs - unbeaten and with Cheltenham Festival experience under his belt Will take a look a bit closer to the day, but the one that's calling to me at the moment is: Sir Des Champs |