Cheltenham Festival
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simonsig
simonsig
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Agree,Hemsby. The chances of him getting outpaced are somewhat less than nil.
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Fair old drift for the Supreme today out to 14 back 20 lay !!!!!
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Watched the race back again and while he has been good before I think the reason they are thinking Neptune is down to his jumping. Echoed on Geraghty's recent blog-
The reason I mentioned going over two five for the Neptune at Cheltenham is to give him a bit more time at his hurdles. Straight after the race I thought (maybe through my pocket a bit) that the horse would jump better at a faster pace but he really did make some bad errors. They didn't make any difference to him at Kelso and he has a phenomenal cruising speed but if he makes a serious mistake or two in the Supreme he will get left behind. |
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If he makes a serious error or two in the Neptune he'll get left behind.
I can sort of see Geraghty's reasoning but this horse travels so well I'm sure the Supreme is the race for him. |
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Fair old drift for the Supreme today out to 14 back 20 lay !!!
That was my fiver at 20 and it's been matched. Maybe just specualation but it does look weak today. |
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I agree Flyingbolt. Errors may be more costly in the Supreme than the Neptune, but on the face of it, in terms of evidence determining his target, his defeat at behind a grinder would worry me (ahead of a tilt at the Neptune) more than his less than slick hurd;ing at speed (ahead of a tilt at teh Supreme).
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Surely they won't make up their mind about which race until likely opponents and ground are known so I would not read any more into the markets than that Neptune is a little more likely at this stage.
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I actually think Fingal Bay has more speed than we're giving him credit for. The early stages of the race at Sandown were run at a crawl, and Fingal simply showed the best turn of foot to win the race. He needed shoving along to do so, and that might be deceiving. Simonsig blew up as if he was in need of the race, maybe was just caught out by Fingal's change of speed. Either way, I can't have him as a non stayer whatsoever.
No financial involvement as of yet, but I think the Neptune is absolutely the right race. |
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Either way, I can't have him as a non stayer whatsoever.
why not, wicketd? |
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Watch the kelso race again in my eyes he was doin all his best work at the end of the race..on the bridle going away from some very useful horses. No doubt in my mind that he wont stay and also that he will reverse placings with fingal bay. Neptune please!!
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I agree with Brian and believe the decision will be ground dependent. As the moment, it needs to piss down for the next 3 weeks for him to participate in the Supreme. It's dry as a bone here in Cheltenham and not a lot of rain forecast this week either.
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It will be Good to Soft for Tuesday nap!
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^Officially
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It was officially good last year so I'd expect that to be the case again even if he does water - the long range weather forecast only shows small amounts of rain over the next 2 weeks so it wil all hinge on the 3-4 days before the meeting starts.
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Uncle 7/2 with PP Good Ground!
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Before last year I thought they would never call it 'good' again due to all the animal welfare stuff, but having set that precedent I'd have to say 7/2 is a bloody bet given the prevailing conditions and weather forecast.
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Agree 7/2 appears big, unless monsoon week before can only be 2 going descriptions.
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politics dictates that the going description be given at no faster than good to soft on the opening day and that is what it will be - they will pour millions of gallons on to ensure they get it
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^ They called it officially good (good to soft in places) last year, sofor betting purposes 'good' was the winning description).
So given we have had the driest autumn/winter/spring on record the chances are even with plenty of watering it will be called good this year. The weather forecast for the next 2-3 weeks is mainly dry and bright with just the odd bit of showery rain - obviously the long rnage wetaher forecast is not carved in stone and it only takes a hevay band of rain on the Monday evening/Tuesday morning to change it to good to soft or even soft. |
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7/2 definitely looks a bet to me.
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Cheltenham's clerk of the course Simon Claisse will start watering the track as early as Wednesday as he begins to prepare for next month's Festival.
There are only three weeks until the key meeting of the National Hunt meeting and Prestbury Park is currently quicker underfoot than ideal. "As expected, warmer weather is on the way and I think it will be 15 or 16C by the end of the week," Claisse said. "We were pretty much frozen from Festival Trials Day up to last Tuesday and we will start watering the course from Wednesday, primarily to active the fertiliser we put on the ground. "We are currently good, good to firm in places and without between six and seven millimetres of water, we would be good to firm by Monday. "We have had a very dry February and we are trying to maintain the ground at good." Still 7/2 with Paddy Power - I've just filled my boots  |
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yes they are trying to maintain it as good now.... because if they get some rain it will go good to soft
if they put enough on to make it good to soft now and it rains then they will miss their target |
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Possibly had a breathing op since Sandown are the rumours going around hence why he stopped so quickly. Interesting if this turns out to be true and would give another reason to connections not being too concerned about taking on Fingal Bay.
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i think this horse would win the supreme high cruising speed and stays, but fear he,s neptune bound...
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It's been a very tough decision, but have just layed off my stake on him for both the Supreme and the Neptune
 Betweeen the two races he was taking up over 10% of my total bets for the entire meeting, so I thought it would be best to get rid, start again, and I might back him again when his target is confirmed. That also frees up some cash to get involved in the handicaps as well now. Would win about £60 if he wins the Supreme and £120 in the Neptune, for a 0 stake in both. Also got him in a couple of tasty multiples in the Supreme, so either way I hope he wins one of the races. Good luck to those who have got a fair wedge on him in either race, but I can relax now and don't need to keep checking the markets every 5 mins to see if he's on the drift  |
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I think that's a very smart decision to be honest.
Aside from the maths involved allowing you to now get stuck into betting/trading on some of the other races, if there is one thing I learned more than anything else over the past two Festivals it is that day of race markets often look very different. Although unlikely, you might find yourself looking at him running in the Neptune on fastish ground against Fingal Bay and Boston Bob and not fancy him too much. Of course you might, but in this case, with targets still to be decided it can't be bad to lay off for a tidy enough amount and not have to worry about it anymore. As you said, you can still back him again nearer the race if you fancy him then and he looks like value when a few other factors have been confirmed. |
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and you probably backed at a bigger price that you are now laying right? meaning you have some residual if he does run and win?
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I laid my stake for the Supreme off at just under 9/1 about an hour before the Kelso run as I was concerned he might run poorly, if I'd waited I could have laid off at shorter odds straight after the race, but within an hour, after Gerraghty's remarks, his price was back in double figures, and glad I did becuase it looks pretty certain that he'll go for the Neptune now.
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Hope it travels on the bridle and runs out of gas up the hill. He's going for the wrong target, everyone knows it, but he's probably only doing so because of the ante post bets he's struck, putting punters away for the umpteenth time. Hope he gets stuffed out of sight in the Neptune now. Great trainer, but a total @rsehole.
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As for the comments about bridle horses in the Supreme, I seem to remember Go Native absolutely dotting up. Simonsig reminds me of him to a tee, lunatic pace set would tow him into the race perfectly.
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He doesn't have the profile of a Supreme horse and really needs a fence. I honestly don't think he would get over the hurdles quickly/neatly enough to win the 2 mile race under normal conditions. If however, the ground turns up soft, don't be surprised to see him in it.
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Neptune fav
 Only 11/4 with Lads |
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neptune winner. its weird that i find myself against almost all of my mates on this one. would be off bridle early in supreme imo.
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would be off bridle early in supreme imo
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nice reply
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Absolutely no chance he would be off the bridle in the Supreme, and anyway it's no bad thing to be off the bridle...see Al Ferof last season. Crying shame he will go for the Neptune though :(
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Absolutely no chance he would be off the bridle in the Supreme, and anyway it's no bad thing to be off the bridle...see Al Ferof last season. Crying shame he will go for the Neptune though :(
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all a matter of opinions, i just dont read the race at sandown the same way a lot of people seem too. i think the horse has less speed than people think.
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I still don't know which race this one should be in
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