Cheltenham Festival
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simonsig
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With Steps to Freedom suddenly friedless on the machine i think his (possible) withdrawl would sway the verdict in favour of the supreme
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funny how Simonsig's stablemate Darlan has taken a walk in market...you'd have thought he'd have contracted if anything given connections feel Simonsig poss to miss Supreme
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I think you have a better chance in the supreme if you know your horse stays further than 2m.....Simonsig definately falls in that brackett. He clearly has a high cruising speed so can maintain a position and even stretch them to a degree. I can see the likes of Darlan, Vulcanite, Cinders and Ashes travelling with him and then Simonsig just getting them at it in the home straight......then my biggest concern...has he the ability to battle when they go eye to eye?....if he does then he will win by 2/3 lengths, if not Darlan will glide past him.
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Hard to imagine a thread that has been more led by pocket talking. Clutching at any straw to somehow save your ante-post bet. You would honestly believe some people had got their life savings on him.
It is amazing how so many people can just swallow hype. At the moment on what he has actually achieved he is the worst favourite at the meeting by a distance. As I said before there are a whole heap of entries who have achieved more than Simonsig and some of them have actually run and won at the trip. It really doesn't matter if the odd one falls by the wayside. The only consideration should be the Neptune or save him for Aintree. Despite comments to the contrary Gerraghty has called it right - surely he should know a little more than a bunch of pocket talkers. Time to call it Nicky, a reasonable shout in the Neptune or potential embarassment in the Supreme. |
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Supreme is easier to win, than Neptune at moment nap if Boston Bob goes Neptune as well as Fingal Bay.
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Here's an anorak question for you. Has a horse ever won the Supreme that hasn't won over 2 miles?
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River Ceiriog at a guess...because I dont think he'd won anything had he?
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Not a first for the trainer either then Rod!
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differentdrum
16 Feb 12 12:02 Joined: 05 Oct 11 | Topic/replies: 307 | Blogger: differentdrum's blog Hard to imagine a thread that has been more led by pocket talking Nah, your prob right there, i guess you have backed it for the neptune then   |
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Or laid it for the Supreme
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Why is "pocket talking" a problem anyway? If you backed the horse for the Supreme it's because you thought it would and should run in the Supreme. So you've backed up your opinion with your money. That could be a more valid opinion than a financially disintereted one.
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"The only consideration should be the Neptune or save him for Aintree. Despite comments to the contrary Gerraghty has called it right - surely he should know a little more than a bunch of pocket talkers."
What a moron FFS. |
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well put Workforce!
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Differentdrum.
Did Geraghty "call it right" when he persuaded Henderson to run Finians Rainbow in the Neptune 2 years ago ? Did he "call it right" last year when they ran the Tolworth winner Minella Class in the Neptune ? Looks like he's going for a hat trick of blunders. |
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This would depend on how strongly Geraghty feels re Simonsig's best chance of winning, but do you feel there is anyway he may ride Tetlami in preference to Simonsig, should they go for the Supreme?
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differentdrum 16 Feb 12 12:02
Hard to imagine a thread that has been more led by pocket talking. Clutching at any straw to somehow save your ante-post bet. You would honestly believe some people had got their life savings on him. It is amazing how so many people can just swallow hype. At the moment on what he has actually achieved he is the worst favourite at the meeting by a distance. As I said before there are a whole heap of entries who have achieved more than Simonsig and some of them have actually run and won at the trip. It really doesn't matter if the odd one falls by the wayside. The only consideration should be the Neptune or save him for Aintree. Despite comments to the contrary Gerraghty has called it right - surely he should know a little more than a bunch of pocket talkers. Time to call it Nicky, a reasonable shout in the Neptune or potential embarassment in the Supreme. Where he will take on a horse who has already slammed him, Boston Bob and Monksland and is still to prove whether he stays in a true run race  |
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i have torn up my ante-post vouchers for Simonsig in the Supreme because DIFFERENT DRUM HAS SPOKEN
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Differentdrum - quite a post that. Lovely stuff. Fishing I assume.
Hard to imagine a thread that has been more led by pocket talking. Clutching at any straw to somehow save your ante-post bet. I admitted to pocket talking in my post but tried to justify it by explaining my perception of the horse's form. Perhaps you can do the same?! That minor point aside, what influence does this forum have on the decisions of connections? How do you suppose I think my views on here will somehow swing the decision? I am not trying to 'save' an AP bet and would have no idea how to do so. Should I fax Seven Barrows?! I am just having a debate with other enthusiasts. Seems reasonable to me. If anything, it sounds like you are trying to save an AP bet when you plead - 'Time to call it Nicky, a reasonable shout in the Neptune or potential embarassment in the Supreme' !! It is amazing how so many people can just swallow hype. At the moment on what he has actually achieved he is the worst favourite at the meeting by a distance. - Form is one element, perception another. Not many horses in the Supreme have blue chip form at this stage so why suggest Simonsig's is substantially inferior? It may or may not be inferior, but few horses have made the same impression. |
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Simonsig's form behind Fingal Bay (in a race that included Barbatos among others), coupled with what we saw yesterday against established horses must be the most solid in the whole race surely, so how can it possible be hype?
My problem, like most people's, is knowing where he'll go at Cheltenham, but I think he looks a very good horse and that is based on form, not hype. |
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Simonsig isn't the quickest over the hurdles.
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Let me clear from the outset that Simonsig is clearly a very good horse and will undoubtedly be competitive whichever race he goes for.
However what I cannot accept at this stage is that he has shown incredible speed. Both of his last two races have been run almost at a crawl for the first mile and yesterday he was on the bridle beating a 3 mile chaser over 6 furlongs shorter. The only time he has needed to come off the bridle he has fallen short. I accept that the form of that Sandown race now looks outstanding and that, to my eye, now makes 5/1 about Fingal Bay look much better value. As far as the Supreme is concerned, I think that represents a better opportunity simply because there is no horse or horses that have stood out to be be that much better than the rest at this stage. It would be easy to assume that because he travels so well that the shorter distance will suit him best. But as I mentioned above the races he has run in have have not been anywhere near the pace that the Supreme will be run at so there is no guarantee he will travel as well. Good luck to all those on at fancy prices but to me there is better value in both races |
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roobuck, to stay on the bridle thruout a slowly-run race that develops into a sprint, what do you need, speed or stamina?
Sure they werent the best bunch on Weds but KBeau had won a Grade 2 over C&D by 27 lengths as a novice hurdler, LHero was beaten only 10 lengths in Triumph Hurdle and Orsippus won Grade 1 over 2m at Aintree...they're not mugs and the result suggests they've run to somewhere approaching their current marks |
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Yes I agree that they're not mugs but you are looking at one piece of form for each and as an example Local Hero was then beaten 58l by Zarkandar at Aintree.
You use KB's form as a novice - how long ago is that? the reality is that he is now a 3 mile chaser who is readily outpaced at a crucial time and then stays on at the end - in fact much evidence would suggest he would benefit from a step up in distance. In truth I would have expected Simonsig to have been able to beat KB like that. Naturally with unexposed horses the visual impression is naturally an important aspect in assessing it's capabilities - beauty is in the eye of the holder and you may very well be right. I guess in the first instance you want him to go for the Supreme and to that end I do agree bit without perhaps the same enthusiasm |
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From Graham Cunningham yesterday on sportinglife
Morning all. Sensible starting point given yesterday's events and the first point to make is that I just think Simonsig is a better horse than Galileo's Choice. The latter won with ease but beat a staying chaser with no real hurdles pedigree, whereas Simonsig pasted some very useful rivals and giving the strong impression again that he is right up there with the very best novices around this season. Like Bingster Im a but perplexed about the talk of going for the Neptune rather than the Supreme with Simonsig. The longer race would force him to lock horns with Fingal Bay again. Personally I'd give him a good chance of beating that rival this time around, but to my mind a strongly-run two miles at Cheltenham would be bang on for Simonsig and if Hendo didn't have Tetlami and Darlan as possible contenders for that race I really don't there would be too much debate on the topic. On the score of jumping its true that S was clumsy at a couple yesterday, but I certainly wouldn't agree with Ed's suggestion that he's "potentially the worst ante-post favourite in terms of value." In fact, if i could be confident that he would turn up on Tuesday rather than Wednesday I would say that he's potentially the best ante-post favourite in terms of value. |
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Roobuck, yes i did cherry pick just one piece of form for each but it was to illustrate that, on their day, they are capable at that sort of trip (i added that they'd run to around their current marks to clarify that i wasnt suggesting that they were in the same form as in the races stated)
Take your point re. Knockara Beau, though personally feel fences make him look slower than he is cos he's not really in love with that game and doesnt travel between his fences like he does over hurdles Your last point sums things up well....it was my first point about being able to stay on the bridle in slowly-run races being about speed that i was chiefly posting for. ps i think with 'hype' increasingly becoming a bogey word, there is almost a stigma around going with a visual impression over form these days, that it is a cardinal sin to fall for a visual impression that proves flattering...it will probably eventually mean that the value will lie with the hype/visual impression horses that everyone is trying to lay! |
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Darlan surely won't be going to the Supreme after todays horrible fall at Newbury so maybe that may influence their decision?
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I disagree uncle.....the fall looked bad, and obviously not good...but the horse was straight back up and joined the race again which tells me it looked a lot worse than it probably was....but of course we have had no news yet on the horse. Someone there said it walked back to its box ok and seemed fine.
If that is the case then I think the horse performed very well. Even if he had finished placed you would be saying it was one of the best form lines going into the supreme.....he has to go there now. |
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As I mentioned on the Supreme thread I only saw it the once (live on CH4) and obviously it was one of those falls that looked worse than it was - I'm glad to say
 However, I still don't fancy him at all for Cheltenham - Aintree is his course imo. |
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R Carver
Sorry, if it came across as pleading but I do believe Nicky has had had long enough to make a decision. He can either go with a hunch and experiment in what should be the most competitive two mile novice of the season or go with the one piece of form which gives him any chance of success. The strength of the Neptune is being overplayed and it could easily come down to a rematch of Sandown. The season is geared around the Festival is it really the right place to be effectively guessing? Personally, I don't think he wins anything but at least he has a realistic form chance in the Neptune. I fear pulled up is the best he can hope for in the Supreme. |
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Fair enough DD, I respect that, thanks for the reply (and apologies if my reply came accross as prickly) placing them in the right race must be a nightmare and carries huge pressure. Quite a few people are posting that he maybe cannot win either race. I woudl love to see him in the Supreme, but I accept if BJG thinks the Neptune makes more sense, he does know more than me.
I suspect other factors will come in - if is to be bottomless on the Weds, they may swerve that race. If their other 2m hopes fall by the wayside, they may run on Tues. If their other 2m hopes do what they expect beforehand, they may lean to Weds. Time will tell. GL DD. |
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'pulled up is the best he can hope for in the Supreme'
Just wow. |
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I ignored that Barnesy!
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Fair play R Carver for answering that post in a serious and civil way. You are a far more patient man than me
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 I've had a few good debates with DD and I do respect his view greatly (everyone's of course). The festival will be lots of fun, best to keep it that way on here too IMO! |
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Yes that took genuine humility! If Simonsig is pulled up in the Supreme I must be a way poorer judge of the game than I'd like to admit!
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differentdrum
Date Joined: 05 Oct 11 Add contact | Send message 16 Feb 12 12:02 Joined: 05 Oct 11 | Topic/replies: 310 | Blogger: differentdrum's blog Hard to imagine a thread that has been more led by pocket talking. Clutching at any straw to somehow save your ante-post bet. You would honestly believe some people had got their life savings on him. It is amazing how so many people can just swallow hype. At the moment on what he has actually achieved he is the worst favourite at the meeting by a distance. As I said before there are a whole heap of entries who have achieved more than Simonsig and some of them have actually run and won at the trip. It really doesn't matter if the odd one falls by the wayside. The only consideration should be the Neptune or save him for Aintree. Despite comments to the contrary Gerraghty has called it right - surely he should know a little more than a bunch of pocket talkers. Time to call it Nicky, a reasonable shout in the Neptune or potential embarassment in the Supreme. COULDN'T AGREE MORE WELL SAID |
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If he goes for the Supreme he's my banker of the meeting.
If he goes for the Neptune I'll be looking to lay him for a place. For me his "form" is as good as anything else but if you are looking to back novices on strict form lines then your chances of success are somewhat limited imo. As for putting great store in the opinions of trainers and in particular jockeys............. |
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I would never be too confident about backing a horse in the Supreme that has not shown me he can find off the bridle.
Or indeed any race at Cheltenham. I do think Simon should run in the Supreme,but i wont be backing him at the sort of price i suspect he will be. |
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In his three runs over hurdles,Simonsig has displayed an impressively high cruising speed.IMO the frenetic fast pace of a typical Supreme is tailor-made for him.I consider it far more likely he fails to stay if contesting the Neptune,rather than getting outpaced if opting for the Supreme.
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