Cheltenham Festival
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simonsig
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I want him to go for the Supreme or a lot goes down for me. However, would they really want to take on Boston Bob and Fingal Bay in the Neptune. It seems a no brainer to me, but it is my pocket talking.
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I would have thought Boston Bob has a much better chance in the Albert Bartlett and Simonsig hasn't really got that much to find with Fingal Bay on potentially much quicker ground. As for the Supreme there seems to be a load of horses of similar but not exceptional ability. On what he achieved today you couldn't place Simonsig above any of them.
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brain ache, I'm gonna wait and see where they go
got a bit on Galileo's early but other than that the Supreme makes me go  |
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Sorry stront... you're right of course.
I suppose they've got Darlan and Tetlami who look like 2 milers, so that may play its part. MM. I am always wary of rides like that. I wouldnt say he looked better the further he went. Barry never really moved a muscle as he didnt need to. Sometimes they can be deceiving imo, and us just watching will never know if he still felt hard on the steel. |
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Henderson says that Barry thinks they should go Neptune, but still no decision yet
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Has to be all systems go for the Supreme after that (that's me partly talking through my pocket and partly an independent opinion).
He oozes so much class, and I think the faster they go the better he will jump. He hit a couple today but he was running out of novice company, and that's why they call them trials - to iron out small mistakes. There's no way he'd be fully wound up today, and I'd be very disappointed if he didn't go the Supreme, but i also have a good saver for the Neptune. I don't think a battle over the extra distance, and what looks like a harder race, is what he wants. Last time Hendo used that race is was for a 2 mile prep for Cheltenham. As for others from the same stable, i think its clear this fella is the stable number 1; so I think it will be fitting them in around Simonsig, rather than the other way round. |
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Barry wants to go for the Neptune apparently.
Eh? Obviously doesn't know the horse as well as us. |
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 TD.I think he was mightily impressed with Tetlami. This way they will have a better chance in both races I suppose? In all honesty I dont have a strong feeling on which race would suit Simonsig best. I'd back him in both. |
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After his Sandown run I thought 2 miles would be spot on. But after today im not so sure now.
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Tempted by the 12's for the Neptune I must say....
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Bugger. Oddschecker too slow... 12's long gone
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Just had a little bit more of the 10's for the Neptune myself.
Oddschecker has not updated PP or Koral, the best you can get now is 10's |
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Great minds CCM
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Now he s saying he may not of been 100% for Sandown
Come on Nicky just say you dont want the punters to know a thing. Lot easier |
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To be fair to NH, he has a lot of plates spinning reference the Supreme and Neptune, involving many different owners. He's probably wondering how the hell he is going to keep them all happy!
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Hes just said he dont know why he did not finish his race off at Sandown,said he stays ok,well if he stays ok and did not finish his race off then what?? Bridle horse???
Or is he a 2 miler??? Whatever,like us,he dont seem to know yet,have a feeling this is going to run and run. |
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Yep. I agree. Will probably be the week of the race until we know.
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it is tempting to think that trainers are all knowing and therefore that Chemical Nicky must know exactly what this horse wants... but if you asked him I reckon his answer would be "a fence"
as we all know sometimes you only get the answers to these questions after they have run I remember people saying that they were mad to run Kauto Star in the Gold Cup and that he was too quick to stay... the rest is history anyway I digress, reckon he will go Neptune |
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Another Bobs Worth on the horizon. If he wasnt 100% you would of though something would of been said straight after Sandown, or when he was on ATR today talking about his "fact finding mission". Wouldnt believe a word until the horse was at the starting line.
To me he doesnt beat Fingal |
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I don't get it.
If it was a fact finding mission, why not run him in the 2m hot novice race at Newbury against the market leaders in the Supreme? If he gets beat, go Neptune, if he wins go Supreme - simple. I know he would have been top weight, but I'm sure it'd all be a lot clearer. I know his owner is Scottish, but to send him all the way up to Kelso and back and still not know what the plan is seems ridiculous to me. |
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Welcome to the world of Nicky Henderson Chief. As I say wouldnt listen to a word, but to me he would be best suited to the supreme cant have him beating Fingal
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I am hoping (and not just for my AP) that he goes for the Supreme. The watering policy suggests the ground could actually be slower on the Tues than the Weds. We do not know of course, but I think this horse would eat Tetlami and Darlan. This is the best novice I have seen in yrs and yrs in terms of the impression it makes. Alvarado IMO was right at the start - he is a freak.
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Agree with wellchief completely and also if they wanted to find out, surely they should have pushed him out more.
As it is, it was a slowly run race, KB is a better chaser than runs on at the end of 3m + and he looked exactly like he did at 2F pole against Fingal Bay. Saw nothing to suggest will reverse form with FB and perhaps as suggested above he is a bridle horse. Actually won't be backing the horse but would suggest that Supreme would offer the best opportunity |
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fwiw,i really cannot see him beating FB either,trainer certainly has no idea why he got beat by him,so he says.Found nothing wrong,so i think why should he beat him next time??
Supreme is the race for him i reckon. |
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1) Barry G said the same about Oscar Whisky - 'Feel he should go down route of Champion as he has so much speed and class' - yet trainer has pushed him to WH - so i would not say his comments are totally relevant as to what race he goes for.
2) He has either won on bridle or found nothing in his races. Those type of horses have a tendency to bomb out at chelt - you are not going to win a championship class race on the bridle, so id like to see him battle a bit. 3) Cant really see why he would beat Fingal Bay again... Id go for supreme |
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It was Geraghty who said Finians needs further after the Ascot race, but he is still staying over 2m this year.
There's hope for us Supreme backers yet! I think he can win either race, have backed him in both, but think the Supreme looks wide open. Far from a penalty kick, but it represents his best chance of a win imo. I'd go Supreme and then the 2m4f Aintree race - the same path as Spirit Son last year. |
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He was pushed out in his bumper Pantom though I agree with everything else I think.
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http://www.guardian.co.uk
/sport/2012/feb/15/simonsig-nicky-henderson-kelso-cheltenham-festival |
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I've just been looking at Henderson's novice hurdlers for the Supreme and Neptune. This list (quite extensive) is, with their current back price on BF:
All The Aces - In Supreme (100) and Neptune (55) Broadback Bob - In Neptune only (32) Captain Conan - In Supreme (300) and Neptune (80) Darlan - In Supreme Only (16) Ericht - In Supreme (410) and Neptune (410) Fourth Estate - In Supreme (60) and Neptune (55) Hadrian's Approach - In Neptune only (140) Keys - In Supreme (65) and Neptune (25) Kings Destiny - In Supreme only (710) Malt Master - In Neptune only (140) Master of the Game - In Neptune only (160) Molotof - In Supreme (240) and Neptune (32) Mono Man - In Supreme (160) and Neptune (120) Nelson's Bridge - In Neptune only (55) Oscar Dara - In Neptune only (120) Oscar Nominee - In Supreme only (410) Shernando - In Neptune only (140) Simonsig - In Supreme (10) and Neptune (9.8) Tetlami - In Supreme (17) only Based on those odds it looks like his Cheltenham team (based on the figures above) will consist of 2 in each race and then Simonsig in one of them. Supreme : Tetlami and Darlan Neptune: Keys, Molotof and possibly Broadback Bob (thought he'd be shorter) Simonsig sits in the middle. Apparently Fourth Estate's owners are keen on the festival as well, so could be three in each race (doubt it will be 4 in one and 2 in another, so he could potentially have an influence in Simonsig's race, but I doubt it.) Right, I'm off for a pint  |
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he said today, that Broadbackbob misses the festival wc
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lay the lot
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He does have a poor record in the Supreme and he's never won the Neptune iirc.
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No offence to anyone but clearly it doesnt matter that you think he should go for the supreme or the neptune which seems to have been the subject for the past 5 hours. NH will do what he thinks best and he has many balls to juggle. Frankly anyone backing his novices ante post must be crazy , his record for putting punters away is extensive and with so many decent novices around and bookmakers fighting for your business come march theres every chance it ll be bigger on the day anyway! ive no idea why you d want to play guessing games with your money...for what its worth im a massive fan of simonsig who has an engine to die for but his jumping is not great and would get found out over 2 miles on todays display imo.BG prefers the neptune and id say he s also certain to go there having won over 3 miles as a point to pointer and watching him at kelso...this would also give his jumping more of a chance.Long term this animal has the makings of a top, top class chaser...an exciting horse for sure but no ante post guess.
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Might as well close this forum down then if we can't discuss were we think he should go.
He certainly won't be double figure odds for whatever race he goes for, and big odds for both races have been available for some time now. Nothing wrong with backing him in your preferred race and having a saver on the other one. That's part of the fun of antepost. Its not for some but obviously some people like it |
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the istabraq years 15 Feb 12 21:10
No offence to anyone but clearly it doesnt matter that you think he should go for the supreme or the neptune which seems to have been the subject for the past 5 hours. NH will do what he thinks best and he has many balls to juggle. Frankly anyone backing his novices ante post must be crazy , his record for putting punters away is extensive and with so many decent novices around and bookmakers fighting for your business come march theres every chance it ll be bigger on the day anyway! ive no idea why you d want to play guessing games with your money...for what its worth im a massive fan of simonsig who has an engine to die for but his jumping is not great and would get found out over 2 miles on todays display imo.BG prefers the neptune and id say he s also certain to go there having won over 3 miles as a point to pointer and watching him at kelso...this would also give his jumping more of a chance.Long term this animal has the makings of a top, top class chaser...an exciting horse for sure but no ante post guess. He wont be 16-1 which I'm on at |
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Yeah, odds will obviously drop once decision is made, so you factor that in to calculations...i'd be surprised if there's many on here that still dont understand how ante-post works!
Simonsig slower than the 0-110 hcp yday, so clearly has bags of speed to not come off bridle in what developed into a sprint....i suppose it all depends on what reasons they have for believing they can reverse it with FB (i thought he was free stuck out wide at Sandown and would almost cert get more cover if they ran it again)...personally, if he got beat in a truly-run Supreme, i dont think it would be cos he wasnt quick enough....more likely cos he didnt hurdle fluently enough or simply ran into a tasty one |
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Billies are 11/2 for him to win any race for those not wanting to play the waiting game
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Think di is on the right track here. Simonsig is not the quickest over a hurdle and I suspect BG thinks things might happen a bit quick for him in the Supreme, unless the ground turns up soft. If the Neptune wasn't such a tough race (on paper at least), I think the decision to go for it would already have been made.
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Neptune more natural target for future chasers. Think he could get placed in Supreme, has a chance of winning Neptune. Something about that race against Fingal Bay doesn't feel right to me. Good ground might see the form being reversed.
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