Oh i've got a 16/1 voucher cash n' go so i hope he does well. Fav for the race after the weekend imo

Thanks for the update RC.

Just had a look at his site and saw that article was written only a couple of days ago.

I had no idea he was found lame

Needless to say, if Mono Man is being aimed at the Supreme, the picure from the yard becomes complicated again.

Assuming all get there, pick of the bunch seem to me to be -

Darlan (Dont fancy it on known form. AP's ride? Being aimed at a handicap? Much depends, I guess, on Saturday)
Simonsig (looks lethal, but Neptune against Fingal again?)
Captain Conan (Neptune? Same owner as Mono Man I believe)
Mono Man (if he makes the festival, Supreme looks more likely than Neptune)

Second string I suspect - Tetlami (decent form in the book, I imagine the owner will fancy a run), All the Aces (Neptune mooted, if good enough, entered over 2 this weekend), Ericht (handicap if anything at this stage surely), Fourth Estate, Keys, Molotof (same comments as Tetlami), Kings Destiny (speculative entry only surely), Oscar Nominee (probably wants further, looks green, cannot jump, hammered by Cinders).

I still cant get my head around the Simonsig for Neptune idea. Why would he reverse form with Fingal Bay over further on a stiff track ?

Interested that Mono Man is about to make his reappearance. Was expected to win first time up when he clouted the last at Newbury, highly regarded by Hendo and has the profile of a Supreme horse.

Captain Conan SUPPLEMENTED for the Deloitte.

Could be NJH aiming to give himself an idea of how good the Irish horses are?

Thing is, NJH has so many novices he is probably running out of options unless he wants them to take each other on.

For me Captain Conan looked a horse that preferred going the other way , running down two or three at Sandown and ducking in behind CS at others , may just be babyish , we will see , as will NJH .

BG said the sticky ground beat him at Sandown more than anything. He clearly has a high crusing speed but there is no evidence to date that he has the necessary acceleration at the minimum trip.

Same here R Carver.

I got the impression at Sandown that Fingal idled in front and simonsig never looked like closing the gap. It could be outstanding form but I'm not certain as my impression of Fingal Bay deteriorated a lot in his last (Newbury) run, having looked outstanding early in the season.

Very interested to hear your opinions lads - as I say I have changed my mind based on a re-watch of the race. I rarely do this nowadays as I tend to watch every race with the sound off and then re-watch it to follow other horses of interest throughout the whole race (rather than just following the leaders/those fighting out the finish).

Usually I form my opinions and stick with them (not that they are always right of course!), so interesting to know whether anyone else has changed their mind about this one.

I feel he's gone from looking oustanding to impressive to tough to "a bit of a character" in his 4 races. I wouldn't be confident if I'd backed him for Cheltenham. He won't get away with his idling/messing about there. However, the Challow could be misleading and the earlier form more representative. Such is the joy of novice hurdling!

Steps to Freedom - A fair few knockers of this one, not just on here but people I have spoken to saying "can't understand why STF is jolly" "form of Cheltenham run very poor" "wouldn't back it at 20s" being a few of the comments. I think this horse is being done a bit short on what it has achieved so far and I make this a solid favourite. It is an open race, given, as this thread shows. There is no runaway Cheltenham bumper winner to frame the front of the market and no stand out performances here or in Ireland that screamed top top quality and back me down to 2/1. What we do have however, is a very good bumper horse with a 100+ flat rating who has shown in 3 hurdle runs this season (on the back of 4 flat races in 2 months) that he jumps/stays/battles/goes on most ground and can handle the course. And he is 10/1!

I accept that as favourite it can hardly have slipped under the radar so to speak but I can see such god value

Just re-watched Tom.

I can see what you are saying, he does not run like a non-stayer. My reservation about the Supreme is that he may be a staying 2 miler (in the mould of Al F, who I thought last yr needed further (though i suppose got away with it to some extent)) who may not be electric enough to quicken as we sometimes expect flashy 2 milers to do (though this is not necesarilly a disadvantage in the Supreme perhaps) - I think I have the same unanswered doubt that Festivalfanatic has posed over 2m.

Given the toe he shows in the race, however, I would not be in a mad rush to step him up against grinders over further. Maybe the target will be decided by the ground and Barry Geraghty's influence (he can only ride 1 in each race!).  I thought he was quite comfortable in the race, only looking in minor trouble when carried wide and jumping the last in the back sideways. Barry (it seemed to me) lit him back up and he came back on the bit.

Going into and after the 2nd last he confirmed to me a suspicion born at Fairyhouse - he could be truly exceptional.

at 10/1.

He hammered them at Aintree, really butchered them from a fair way back in a modest run race. He ran past them like they weren't there and was only hitting top gear at the line.  Montbazon travelled nicely and Choc must have thought he was winning as he liked as he hit the front. A bumper is a bumper, I get it, no hurdles and more of a speed test, especially on good ground at Aintree but surely that would suit the buzzy/speedy type Montbazon just as much if not more than STF. And to add to that, STF seemsto me on what we have seen this year to be the better jumper. So the "it's a different game with x amount of hurdles in place" argument goes out the window yet many see Mont as a likelier type for this race. Cinders and Ashes fans are clutching at even more straws if looking at the Aintree race. 12/1 and 10/1 respectively, having watched that. No brainier based on that run.

Moving on from the bumper, as there will be many who say ignore it, and you get to a solid/progressive flat campaign culminating in a staying on 4th in the Oyster Stakes, showing ability to settle/travel and knuckle down when asked. In good company too.  So the flat season is over and straight on to hurdling. No break between the two bumpers at then end of last season and four flat races.

He then jumps like "a seasoned handicapper" as the analysis says at Fairyhouse. The form may well be nothing and is irrelevant in the context of the Supreme but the second did win 11l two weeks later so there is a wee bit of substance there.  On to Punchestown, slowly run race which won't have suited and a cosy beating of Sailors Warn, race fit and progressive and who has gone on to run a good 5l 7th in a Ladbroke off 144 and being caught out by the lack of pace. He will run well on Sat at Newbury to strengthen the case.

And then Cheltenham, and a slightly flat performance off again a slow gallop but travelling and jumping well enough to suggest the course holds no obvious fears. My take on this race is that the spark wasn't there after a long season and without the necessary pace to bring out the best in him. R.Power has said as much. You can crab the form, I can see that and it would have been preferable to see the others come out and win but off levels at Cheltenham granted decent ground and a strong pace Prospect and Ericht won't be within shouting distance.

The break between that race, when the Harrington runners weren't to me firing on all cylinders, will do him the world of good. He had a 9 month break before Aintree so he goes well fresh and I can't see his  trainer not having him spot on for the big one, as she has proved time and time again.

He is a cracking bet, surely? 10/1!!!!!

He deserves to be near the top of the market, thats for sure. But I dont think his form screams nailed on favourite and the obvious best horse in the race myself. There are just so many unexposed types.

Forgive me if I repeat myself as I have posted these views on a couple of other threads. I agree with R Carver in that Simonsig and Fingal Bay's Sandown run is for me, by far the best novice form of the season. I also think we can put a line through FB's race in the Challow - something like his fourth run in quick succession and think he is much better than that.

Think Simonsig is a machine and drop to 2m would suit him perfectly, cannot understand people who still think he should go Neptune - why? Patently outstayed at Sandown and extra 1f and stiffer track at Cheltenham will be even more against him. Also think Fingal an exceptionally tough horse to pass as he looks the type to keep finding more and more. Simonsig shows serious ability, to travel that way over a horse of Fingal's class says that this one is from the top drawer.

Am on at big prices but still think 12s is absolutely huge. When he wins this weekend he will be considerably shorter and looks a worthy favourite in a very weak year.

Have to say think simonsig is a 2 and half mile horse who was just slightly outstayed by a tougher horse with a bit more class on that ground at sandown...difficult for connections as think the neptune is the race for him but they know fingal has the beating of them...different ground could bring about a different result however...not sure the supreme is the race for him but not sure he will win the other either....