Montbazon pretty impressive but I think everything fell right - no pun intended - for him today. Ground might be too slow for him on the opening day and too many placed efforts on his record for my liking. Vulcanite bubble burst and will presumably head for Aintree. Obviously Darlan travelled well but we can only guess what would have happened - personally I have a feeling he would have just found the one pace and finished out of the money. The balance of his previous form is pretty ordinary and it may be dangerous to get carried away with what might have been. One things for sure a fall like that is no good to any horse.

Going was Good to Soft, Soft in places on the hurdle track. Pretty much what it'll be on Day 1 unless they have an inordinate amount of the wet stuff.

Sint, it didnt walk like soft in places today, bit patchy in places though

I thought this week would really sort the betting out for this race, and if anything it's made it more complicated and unclear!!

The openess is highlighted by the different views the bookies have taken.

Galileo's Choice is fav or joint fav with 5; Simonsig is 9, Steps to Freedom is 1, Midnight Game is 1 and Montbazon is 1.  I don't think there is another race at the festival with such a wide variety of favs or joint favs.

Galileo's Choice put in a good performance, but you have to question what he beat.  I think there are others that have put up better performances this year, but you can only beat what is put in front of you.  Dermot Weld very rarely brings them over to the Festival, so he demands respect.

A quick side question re Galileo's Choice - does anyone have a view about the fact he is going back on the flat in the summer?  I personally don't see that as a positive.  I know he's done it with Unaccompanied, but once a horse goes hurdling I like them to stay hurdling / National Hunt and not mixing codes.  Anyway......

Then there is Simonsig, who I think has been discussed enough on here for now, but it is unclear where he will go, which adds further complications.

Montbazon showed a really likeable attitude today and he impressed me.  Debateable whether he would have won or not, but the way he picked up off the bridle is one attribute that not many at the top of the market have shown yet, so that is a massive positive for me (I see the bookies are split on him with PP 7's and others 12's.  I'd go somewhere in between and I think there are worse bets at the moment than 12's for Montbazon).

That run also brings Tetlami firmly into the equation.  Montbazon gave beat Vulcanite 7 lengths today off levels.  Tetlami beat Vulcanite 3 1/2 lengths and giving 5lbs, so those two are very close on a line through Vulcanite.

Colour Squadron is similar to Darlan.  He was going really well in the Betfair and who knows what might have happened.  He has gone up in my estimations after today, and it will be interesting what they do with him now, and if he's any worse for wear after the fall.

Earlier in the week Cash and Go was travelling well but blew up and has scoped badly.  His price has doubled on here to 66, maybe CCM could give us an update please?

So overall, I'm still as unclear now as I was last week (except now all the prices are shorter ).  Simnonsig is my bet, but Montbazon, Tetlami, Darlan and to a lesser extent Colour Squadron are all more firmly in the picture for me now.

I've began to forget that Steps to Freedom and Cinders and Ashes exist

I wonder how G-S the ground actually was today since Sprinter Sacre and Long run apparently both broke course records (on the chase course I know, but still....)

I agree with zilzal and after all the Betfair was only 4 seconds slower than standard and they crawled the first 6-7f.

I have actually backed three for this race Darlan, Montbazon and Vulcanite so today could have been a disaster. That being said I see only Montbazon now having a realistic chance because as well as Darlan ran, it was a heavy fall and I would be surprised if the report 'stiff and bruised' did not come out in the next couple of days. They may well wait for Aintree. If fully recovered and took his chance, he would be a serious player

I think wellchief summed up Montbazon very well.

Like wellchief I am now more confused about the race so with odds only likely to go one way, I shall leave it at that for this race

Everybody is confused about this race. It is glaringly obvious.  Can somebody tell Henderson SIMONSIG has winner written all over him.

good summary wellchief. I dont have a clue about this race yet, and havent had a bet. I am willing to wait and see what turns up. I would never have picked Al Ferof last year, so even if I had three different picks at this stage there's a good chance I wouldnt find the winner.

Only 24 days to go ladies/genst!

Tetlami with Prospect wells as a saver

Can't disagree with you there - NJH may keep you waiting however

Have to say I think Darlan was about to go and do what he has been set out to do all season. 3 undercooked easy runs to get a mark and win the Betfair hurdle. Of course nobody knows what would have happened had he stood up but he really was travelling powerfully and has proved to my eye he is no bridle horse when he battled back at Cheltenham. I hope he wasn't too shaken up after that horrible fall but even to be travelling like that off of a very high mark for a novice was pretty impressive. He should go on to be a v high class horse I think.

Not sure about that, wasn't very strong in the market for that to be the case imo.
Do believe we still have a lot to come though.

That was a horrible form. The horse is bound to be very sore after that. I'd be wary of backing him at the Festival, epsecially as some sort of good thing, unless he's bouncing in the parade ring.

I agree with MM that Darlan could be very good though would be wary of backing him again at Cheltenham if he pitches up for the loss of confidence, bruised and sore reasons already mentioned.

I know sint and others don't particularly rate the horse but I put forward this

2010 - GMOOH wins the Betfair off 135 and then runs 2nd in an average Supreme.
2011 - Recession Proof wins Betfair off 134 and then runs 5th in a very good supreme

Darlan was running a massive race off 146 in what my opinion was a much better race than the last two years and this year's Supreme could be very average - please note the word 'could'. Obviously a leap of faith to know where he would have finished and what he would have found in the final furlong, but it is not hard to imagine a fully recovered Darlan going very, very well.

I also wonder if he wants a flat track (they seemed genuinely a bit surprised in December he how struggled, though i know they are not machines) and that fall could easily have left a mark. Certainly a horse full of promise in an open yr though.

I will be treating the Betfair hurdle form with extreme caution (Danger Will Robinson) because they went very slowly for the first mile and, I mean, they were walking. Clearly though he is a talented horse to be travelling that easily seeing they had just turned the taps on and everything was trying to quicken up yet he was cruising

I just question what would have been happening had they gone Championship pace from the start (imagine Celestial Halo and Overturn taking each other on for the lead and only running out of puff as they come to the third last) and I will want to see him run in a fast run race before forming a clearer picture.

I'm not surprised a few have disagreed with me regarding Darlan because like you say R Carver it was a long way out and I do feel because of the way he's been campaigned people have doubt's about him. But sometimes you just get that feeling with a horse when everything is falling into place and I did get that with Darlan today. Every time AP gave him a little nudge he picked off another runner and I could not see him from where he was finishing behind Raya Star or GMOOH. The fall is definitely a concern for Chelt as is possibly the course if you take his Chelt form literally. I do think he has a great chance & echo the points roobuck made about novices who won weaker renewals of this race off a much lower mark going on to run well in the Supreme. Bar the fall today would have done him the world of good learning to jump and race in such a competitive and large field of runners. Look it's an open race this year and I would just think he will go pretty close. I'm pretty sure JP & Nicky think a lot of him.

Can't believe some of the comments on here re Robbie McNamara. He's one of the top amateurs around, maybe the best, with plenty of big race experience. If it wasn't for his height he'd be one of the top professionals riding in Ireland, of that I have little doubt. When people see a jockey is an amateur, they think they musn't be good enough to turn pro, but in fairness Robbie can't. I'd rate him up alongside Jamie Codd, Derek O'Connor and Nina Carberry as the best amateurs around, and better than the majority of professionals. He didn't do anything wrong on Rite Of Passage at Cheltenham and I see no reason why he'd be any more likely to make a mistake than Paul Townend.

Think Colour Squadron would have gone close to Montbazon, overpriced if recovering from fall have backed both at bigger odds.