Cheltenham Festival
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Supreme Novices
Supreme Novices
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Hope your well R.Carver...Simonsig
Do you think he is a horse that wants further pal?? |
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Hi Harry. All good here my friend. Hope you are good too.
I suspect Simonsig will get further (PTP, Fairyhouse, Sandown and today's run all suggest it to some degree or other ) but the speed he shows says to me he should be runing on Tuesday. He looks like a 2 miler with stamina. He reminded me today a little of Peddlars Cross when he won at Haydock a few yrs ago, a copper bottomed staying two miler. I am pocket talking to some extent but on a literal reading of Sandown, you would not be unduly worried if you were the connections of Fingal Bay. Why should he reverse the form? I think he stayed at Sandown, but Fingal stayed better. Maybe on better ground he would have quickened clear of the grinder Fingal. Maybe he lacked experience at that point. I am not sure. I do not think Fingal is unbeateable (I'd oppose him personal with Boston Bob, if the two of them clash) but if it turns into a slog, I cannot see Simonsig reversing the form I am afraid. At the same time, the Supreme looks more open. Maybe Simonsig's connections just have a suspicion based on breeding and form that he lacks the razor sharp speed of some 2 milers. Maybe it will be dependent on the ground. We know the ground will be no faster than G-S on Tuesday but it could be slower. If the forecast is dry and the ground looks likely to be softer on the Tuesday they may plump for the Supreme. If it is going to come up like a bog, I suspect they would also go for the Supreme to avoid a slog against desperate stayers. The vibes at the moment strongly suggest the Neptune, much to my disappointment. Which target do you envisage? |
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Henderson was non-committal over Simonsig's Cheltenham target, and the Neptune still remains a possibility.
He told At The Races: "I'd always hoped he might be a bit special and I think he probably is. "The sun did him (Geraghty) no favours over the last couple and he'd have loved to go and stride on a little bit - he was at pains to hang on to him. "We're just trying to see where that speed is and he has got an awful lot of it. "Barry said if he'd let go of him he could have found another 20 (lengths) if he'd wanted it. "He will go to Cheltenham, but it (what race) is a huge decision. It's a big decision and it's a very difficult one. "He's bred to stay - he's won a point-to-point and he won a bumper over two and a quarter miles in Ireland." |
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Neptune looks fav then.
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 Aye Stakey, defo Neptune imo |
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Supreme i reckon,i mean how does henderson think he can beat FB after Sandown?? let alone any of the others like Boston Bob.
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With all the shenanigans over Simonsig and Galileo's Choice, I've only just noticed Its a Gimme got back to winning ways again today.
275 on here so probably won't run, but brings Colour Squadron's form back a little bit after Captain Conan's no show |
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Colour Squardon V much a player IMO. Like you WC, I am disregarding that run by Captain Conan.
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http://www.guardian.co.uk
/sport/2012/feb/15/simonsig-nicky-henderson-kelso-cheltenham-festival |
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Well have just gone back over his races for the 20th time I think...he is a seriously classy horse...
Your analogy I think is spot on here...I don't mind pocket talking when valid... For me pal he is a 2 1/2 miler at this point in time but would say he has serious gears and have to say I think the longer race in which he will meet much stronger stayers isn't the race he can win...he seems to do everything on the snaffle and for me I would be worried about him up the hill in the neptune...only because he has been exposed to lack stamina, which he showed at sandown when beaten, people can argue what they will... The reason I think you are right is at sandown people say it was gruelling on the ground but they went no pace for 7 furlongs and he was still outstayed...I don't think he minded the ground that day either...I can see where connections are coming from because of his pedigree and how he has campaigned in the past but he looks very fast to me...if you look at him today he does it so easily...the problem with the supreme is the speed in which they jump and that is why they are concerned I'd say...but for me it is the right race for him and he should take his chance because he is what the race needs in terms of class.... In conclusion he won't win the neptune and may not be quick enough to win a supreme but I thought the same with al ferof last year and he showed that a horse with speed and stamina is necessary to win as it was with captain cee bee and brave inca...he looks very good...can't wait to see him jump a fence, lets hope he is the next dessie... |
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Same problem next year Harry...... We'll all be debating Arkle, Jewson or RSA!
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ye brutal catch me...but we love it
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ccm ure fella is a working class price now
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Hi Harry..
In conclusion he won't win the neptune and may not be quick enough to win a supreme - a distinct possibility! can't wait to see him jump a fence, lets hope he is the next dessie... - I echo that! |
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I have to say he will be a worthy fav if he lines up in supreme R.Carver nothing has looked as good as him so far although I do like galileos choice but not the jockey...will be disappointing if he doesn't get a shot and just finds the one pace in the the neptune will be a disappointing site...
fingers crossed for you...can't say I have an interest betting wise...murder |
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If he lines up in the Supreme he will go off fav imo. If he lines up in Neptune 3rd fav? They should go Supreme in my eye but would not be surprised if he went Neptune.
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he certainly looks a talent
which race he goes for, i'm sure we wont know until much nearer the time. i would think the neptune when he got beat at sandown it looked like he got outstayed by FINGAL BAY but i'm not so sure in his bumper win, his debut over here and again today he does everything so easily on the bridal. looking at the sandown race you can look at it in 2 ways firstly. he had won very easily in his first 2 races and here he was asked to race for the first time and, still being green he was caught out by the ultra tough FINGAL BAY or secondly, he does everything on the bridal but doesn't find off it i'm leaning toward the second. watching his bumper victory. when he was asked to go and win his race his head carriage is quite high and doesn't look like he wants to really kick on thankfully the novice races are looking very interesting, as the championship races are looking awfully dull. short priced favourites with minimal challengers |
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Despite beating nothing galileos choice jumped very professionally today on ground he would have disliked. He ticks all the right boxes coming into the supreme and I'd see him as a 7/2 or 4/1 shot on the day.
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Interesting results today with Simonsig and Galileo's Choice.
While I am a tetlami fan through and through, I'll try to keep this as balanced as possible. I can't believe how Galileo's Choice is as short as 8/1 for his performance today. It was impressive, but if you take a form line through him, sous les cieux and cash and go he must surely not be good enough to win this race. I accept that he will be better on good ground, and so we will see him to better effect come March. But to have him at 8/1 when he came behind sous les cieux who looks to find 2 miles too sharp for him is strange! I'm unsure of Simonsig based on the fact that connections are undecided as to which race he will go for. I had expected that the race today would have been a deciding factor. We shall have to wait and see. But he warrants a great deal of respect, despite possibly being a bridle horse. Steps to freedom looks to have the best form out of the Irish lot and rates decent value at 9/1. His course form is extremely valuable too! All in all, it is a fascinating race and we will continue to learn about the contenders this weekend. Vulcanite (who I obviously like through Tetlami form) should win this weekend and will look another lively contender for the race. Had he not been pricewised it would be wrong for him to be shorter than Tetlami who beat him at Kempton by three lengths giving him 5lb and won cosily enough. |
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To be fair Vulcanite didnt settle for half the race and jumped poorly (one horrible mistake) yet still loomed up on the winners shoulder with half a mile to go. A very powerful scopey sort, i fully expect him to improve past tetlami as he gains more jumping experience
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Have just witnessed when looking at this market all the money on the layside disappear and £100 appear on the back side at 10 for STF!
  I think that could be worrying if you have backed him imo, keeping a watchful eye on things |
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Such an ongoing nightmare this race is!
I have flip-flopped about five times with Simonsig (Supreme -> Neptune -> Won't win either -> Could win the Supreme (looks very classy -> Should go for Neptune.... and on, and on, and Ariston.....). Current thinking is that he will likely run in the Neptune, and if he is third fav based on what seems to be the popular opinion on here, I'd be very happy to back him. I think there is every reason to suppose he could beat Fingal Bay. Apart from it being a different track, different ground, different shape to the race etc., I just think Simonsig must have more scope for improvement than Fingal, who might just have had one too many hard races already. Seems to me at the prices that Montbazon could be worth a bit of a poke. Despite a number of possibles getting tonked in the Deloitte, and us not learning anything new about Galileos or Simonsig (based on connections leaning very slightly the other way), Montbazon has lengthened a few points over the past few days. Seems odd given that the race looks less competitive than it did previously. A few formlines might have been knocked, but if you went a few pages deep into collateral form in this one, I think we'd conclude most of the horses can't win. |
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Steps To Freedom not declared for tomorrow's race at Dundalk.
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Drifted a bit too....
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Harrington: "Steps To Freedom is fine. I just changed my mind. He might gallop at Leopardstown on March 4."
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Jessica Harrington has decided against running Steps To Freedom at Dundalk tomorrow, and he will now head straight to next month's Supreme Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham.
The six-year-old completed a hat-trick of victories over timber at Prestbury Park in November and he is now towards the head of the market for the Festival curtain-raiser. Harrington had suggested her charge would make an appearance on the all-weather this week, but she has had a change of heart. The trainer said: "Everything is fine and we've just decided that we'll go straight to Cheltenham. We just thought about it and thought we'd go straight there." |
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Jessica Harrington has decided against running Steps To Freedom at Dundalk tomorrow, and he will now head straight to next month's Supreme Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham.
The six-year-old completed a hat-trick of victories over timber at Prestbury Park in November and he is now towards the head of the market for the Festival curtain-raiser. Harrington had suggested her charge would make an appearance on the all-weather this week, but she has had a change of heart. The trainer said: "Everything is fine and we've just decided that we'll go straight to Cheltenham. We just thought about it and thought we'd go straight there." |
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Newbury tomorrow should be very informative - Montbazon, All the Aces, Colour sqaudron and Vulcanite tie together quie a few form lines on ground that's likely to be siilar to Festival Tuesday.
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Aye. Lets hope Montbazon gives them a good d1cking. Please god.
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Sorry stront/sint Vulcanite for me
if he goes Newbury, as Sandown a possibility too, and would be easier |
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Sandown was trainers preferred option for Vulcanite but I think CL wants to go wherever Paddy Brennan is
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He is declared for Newbury for what that's worth.
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Mono Man entered at Doncaster next week surprisingly. I suspect it is too late to make it though Oscar Whisky had his Supreme prep on 19 Feb following 1 prior hurdle run (in December, which he won).
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Whats the feeling after seeing Darlans efforts today, backed him at 20,s but all the vibes about him were poor funnily enough until he ran today, think he actually gave more weight to the fact he is a contender for the Supreme although i,m not saying he would have won today if he had stood up.
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Was running a big race,need to see how hes come out the race,was a nasty fall.
A good race for a novice,and if hes well he has done his chances in the supreme no harm. |
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He travels like a dream, but his one iffy performance came at Cheltneahm, and with a really nasty fall to get over I think it would be wise to wait till Aintree where the sharp track will play to his strengths (similar to Binocular in his novice year).
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Darlan was very good indeed. Who knows if he would have won if he had stood up?? but the fact that he travelled well, maintained a position when he needed to and was a big field must be good to know he can cope with it all.
As for the fall...it looked nasty enough, but the horse was straight up again and looked around and started to run again which tells me it might have looked worse than it was. Just need to know if he is ok after that and not picked any injury or soreness......if all is ok he has a big chance in the Supreme. |
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I only watched the race live as I had to get back to work so glad to hear that Darlan got up and appeared 100% OK - really looked a nasty fall at the time and with him being in the front rank I though he may have taken a few kicks from those behind.
Still maintain that the Aintree race is the one for him, though nothing to say he shouldn't take his chance at Cheltenham too. |