Cheltenham Festival
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Supreme Novices
Supreme Novices
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Think you could be right IC.
Segal has lots of options to choose from but suspect it will be either: Tetlami, Color Squad,Montbaz,Vulcanite & Midnight Game. This race without doubt hardest to second guess his ante-post pick. |
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Binocular straight to teh festival - does this mean Simonsig runs in the Morebattle?!
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Simonsig, Trifolium, Tetlami & Vulcanite all getting shortened by bookies before Pricewise pick.
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So much for that being an informative race then!
Obviously gutted, and feels like the bubble has been burst a bit. AL said he didnt feel like the same horse he rode at Xmas, so hopefully it was just an off day. Put a line through it and move on. Happensd to the best of them. I dont think that run proved he isnt up to it, as that was far from being his true form. Obviously he might have other issues, and need to get him back to 100%, but its a question of that rather than ability imo. He did scope badly so will learn a bit more the next few days. I'd be more concerned with SLC myself as I think he gave his true running and just isnt as good as they think he is. |
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all being well the plan is still to run him at Cheltenham though you think CCM?
Thought he travelled and jumped very well up to third last tbh. |
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Me too mate. Thought he hurdled exceptionally well across the back. I could see CC was done, and coming off the final bend Ruby was sending out distress signals, and I thought he was just going to clear away and win his race.
I would think so. See what is found and how he comes out of the race, but no reason to think otherwise at this stage. |
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Good luck CCM hope he makes it.
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What's the general concensus on Steps To Freedom?
Obviously has some all important C&D and showed a nice bit of battle to get his nose in front in the autumn. The last bit of news I can find is Lynch saying positive things. |
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I would be surprised if at least 2 horses didn't run their race in the Deloitte. Cash & Go and Captain Conan ran nowhere near to their previous runs. If they did the winner is the next superstar which I somehow doubt. Didn't help clear the cloudy market of the Supreme though. Don't think you can say it's going to be the worst Supreme there are plenty of unexposed novices about. Just no Cue Card or Dunguib to rave about before it gets beat.
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Unlucky CCM, was rooting for you.
Lets hope he makes it over for the festival. He was travelling like a good horse for a long way, but at least he made it back in one piece and there is always another day. I'm convinced he's got a good win in him. |
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Thanks mate.
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Makes tremendous reading some of the things written on here about sous le cieux....
I don't know how anyone can criticise the horse from where he came from yesterday...people must of thought he was shergar....cracking stuff... How can you knock the horse?? made up 12 lengths off of slow fractions from round the home turn and after a mistake 2 out...and the winner was given one of the best tactical rides you will see and loved the ground...the third horse is a listed horse off the flat on decent ground...next thing I will be getting told is every horse in the race didn't run there race...apart from the obvious ones (captain conan and cash and go) He may not be a world beater but he isn't to bad and will be good enough to get in the money in the neptune which was always going to be his target...what a lot of drivel |
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Sorry had to get that off my chest...
One thing I will say I bet tony martin is spitting he hadn't entered Benefficient in the supreme?? showed good gears to my eye... |
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Interesting stuff Harry - every now and again I need to get a rant off my chest too about the way horses are or are not crabbed!
I agree with the majority of it, but would be a little concerned that he didn't seem to close the gap any more from the final flight to the line. My take was that CC and CAG didn't run up to form, but to be honest the whole lot of these two-mile novices look very average at this stage, so who knows? My initial thought was that the winner showed them all up for being a poor lot, but maybe he is a decent tool. If Simonsig gets beaten this week, we really could end up with 10-1 co-favs on the day of the race! |
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Tom I hear you but just felt he kept on at the same pace but made up 2 and 1/2l to me after the last but the winner had flown... he had a lot of ground to make up after his mistake and being 4 wide into the straight...the winner if you forgave him his last run beat 2 subsequent winners easily on his previous run and loved the ground...interesting the pace wasn't fast and the first and third were up in the van the whole way...this is what I liked I suppose...
anyways I maybe wrong and like you say they may have just been a poor bunch but think he is the horse to take from the race except cash and go who was going really well and all was obviously not well with him...the winner is an unknown and the form is bound to be crabbed with him being pulled up on bad ground on his previous outing...like i said martin must be kicking himself to not have the option of the supreme... anyways like I said he may not be a world beater but still don't think he should be totally written off especially now they know they can hold on to him and if boston bob goes for the other race?? Ask yourself the question?? both races are worth the same AB and neptune and you have a certainty in the albert b (boston bob) and a horse who could potentially upset the favorite and have a fair chance in the neptune what would you do?? Have to say I am very tempted to bet boston in the albert...risky i know |
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Anyone any idea why Prospect Wells drifted so wildly for a period yesterday?
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So Benefficient doesn't even have an entry for the Supreme ? No wonder he went off a 50/1 shot.
It looks like Segal has tipped Midnight Game & Vulcanite. I've not backed the latter but did back the former on Sunday afternoon after the Deloitte was run. |
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Correct sint. Going Newbury Friday will give Olofi shout for you,am also on Empire Levant based on run behind Rock On Ruby, big price imo cause Nicholls got Zarkandar.
Should be cracking days racing, any other fancies at present for you? |
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Yes it is a very competitive race and you can make a case for many. J.Tizzard on ATR just now and fancies his mount Third Intention. I am sticking with Olofi though (have backed him both starts this season) as he is receiving weight from most of the field and if he cant frame off 136 then I wont be backing him again! Not looked at anyting else.
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The power of priceweise.....
Midnight Game into 13 and Vulcanite an astonising 16! |
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Aye. Vulcanite particularly short but the bigger the price the less money the f1lth will lay.
We've probably been a bit harsh on your horse CCM. Was 3/3 over hurdles prior to Sunday and every horse is entitled to a below par effort. |
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Simonsig now Fav.
Someone wants to Lay Montbazon for £370 at 20's.  |
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Why would anyone take Vulcanite over Tetlami at the current prices? Tetlami gave him 5lbs and beat him going away at Kempton. The impression I got was that a stiffer test would have produced an even easier victory. It is not as if Vulcanite is a late maturing NH bred. It seems very unlikely particularly as the meeting will almost certainly start on good to soft that he is going to progress enough to reverse the form. In addition Tetlami has more experience and has also won around Cheltenham.
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Because that day Vulcanite gave a good few people inc me the impression he was in need of the run that day when behind tetlami. No one is dossing that form, it is there for all to see, i also seem to remember when geraghty got off tetlami that day he said that he though those in behind that day were probably in need of the run. Then Vulcanite goes off 1/4 nto, short ok, but i for one did not expect him to be as short that day, the horse he beat that day won at newcastle on his next outing so that form is good too.
I am on at 33s, i agree, he does seem to be a little short now, thanks mostly to price wise and with 4 weeks to go still, but i do think his price will be roughly about right on the day if still 12/1. Also owned by a sheik, not that that has anything to go by, but i am sure their not stupid people, a person who is venturing for the first time into national hunt horse racing, i pray that this is not the first and last time. The owner has said he wants to run in the supreme, if he is good he will buy more horses for the NH game, if he is bad he wont. |
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Its possible he could reverse form,these are improving novices we are talking about.
Im on Tetlami at nice prices but would not be averse to having a saver on Vulcanite if the price suits on the day,form looks good. |
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I backed both weeks ago budd, after vulcanites impressive lto performance, ok many gurus might argue that he was 1/4 that day but as i have already stated in above commented i actually thought he was woefully short that day, i would not have had him any shorter than a 4/6 - 4/7 area that day, then looking back at the tetlami form, i went in on both, 33s and 20s respectively.
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Simonsig and Galileo's Choice putting there Supreme aspirations on the line tomorrow.
It looks like simonsig has the easier race, albeit out of novice company. I'd suggest if you fancied him I'd back him before the race as I think he'll be shorter after it. Terminal who is up against Galileo's Choice looks an unknown quantity. Have to confess I haven't seen any of his races but you have to respect his connections and he still has a Supreme entry. So it could be Galileo's Choice bubble bursts and we could all be talking of Terminal, or GC could easily be 2nd fav this time tomorrow. |
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Then friday you got vulcanite v montbazon v colour squadron and darlan in the big handicap. Supreme market come friday night could look very different.
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Why does dermot weld persist with robbie mcnamara on his decent horses...he is ok but just average, he isn't a top jockey...
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i see its a gimme is out tomorrow at southwell, 2m4f, whether jp would have 2 runners in supreme i dont know, after tomorrow i guess we'll know if its a gimme is either supreme or neptune or travel at all...
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JP also has Blissful Moment entered in the Supreme. Was btn only 5L in the Ebor when trained by M.Stoute. Entered in Novice at Navan on Sunday.
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Don't forget the handicap options - with JP you just don't know and let's face it he isn't going to say anything. Given that he was outspeeded by Waterunder I would suspect longer rather than shorter but is that Colour Squadron form really that good? One of the races to watch tomorrow though.
Anyone else see Kelso as a surprising place to send a supposed speedball? |
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Really surprised that Henderson is going all the way to Kelso with Simonsig
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Well at least the ground wont be as bad as when he sent poor Zaynar up there
 That really was gluey sh1t. |
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Poor Zaynar I don't think he ever forgave Nicky for that! Seems an odd place to go with Simonsig but it should let us now a lot more about him. Hopefully he won't have too much of a hard race.
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Am worried about it to be honest - if he gets beaten it wouldn't be great, obviously, and if he wins, they'll say we'll take a view on which race he goes for much closer to the day. He'd have to prove his stamina for the Neptune if he wins well at Kelso, so it's not likely to tell us much as to whether he goes Supreme or not.
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Kelso is quite demanding and more a test of stamina than speed.
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General feeling on the forum (and it might well be correct) is that Boston Bob is the key player in all the novice hurdles, and wherever he goes will shape the other races.
With that being the case, Hendo might not even be bothered about taking on Fingal Bay again - it might be a case of wait and see what BB does. If he goes for the Albert Bartlett, maybe they'll go for the Neptune. Either way I am not sitting too pretty (  ) as I'm on Mount Benbulben in the Albert Bartlett and was looking to back Sig in the Neptune... |
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Yes it's nearly that time of year again when I blow all my hard earned in a few days of obscene drinking and outrageous gambling, but hey let's get this years festival of to a bang with my banker of the meeting ( more to follow if this don't win )
First race, first day and god knows the Irish love this one as their banker of he festival as so many have won, sorry I mean lost over he years but this year will be different ! Tomorrow at Fairyhouse 2-35 this years supreme winner will hose up, now I'm not saying back him tomorrow (but I would if I had your money) but take the price for supreme before the race if you fancy him (I do and have) but if you don't take the price anyway and lay it back with he wins tomorrow for a no loose bet on the supreme ! More useless nuggets of information to follow |
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Galileo's Choice by the way
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