Cheltenham Festival
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Supreme Novices
Supreme Novices
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AP to ride Darlan, BJG is on Tetlami and simonsig going for neptune, breaking news.
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Interesting to see Wyllie's FELIX YOUNGER back to 2m today at Naas. Holds entries in all 3 Novice hurdles and given how Prospect Wells doesn't look up to winning a Supreme it looks like a case of testing the water today after running over further. Not sure this one is up to it either but bound to shorten if winning today.
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Felix Younger won well enough but no idea what to make of the form - price has halved right enough but no idea if it will head to the Supreme or not. Won't have the benefit of Ruby either come Cheltenham but in a wide open year it's a live outsider if turning up.
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AP on Darlan, game on
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Big fan of Tetlami and surprised there has been no hype about him. Clearly Barry thinks he could surprise a few in the supreme?!
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Don't want to get too carried away as I'm getting plums deep on Darlan so slightly biased but can't help wondering what his price would be IF he'd stayed on his feet and IF he'd beaten Zarkander that day. Lot's of ifs but I have a good feeling in the water on this one then again could be the cystitis returning!
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mr mulligan
26 Feb 12 11:09 AP to ride Darlan, BJG is on Tetlami and simonsig going for neptune, breaking news. Can't find this breaking news on Racing Post or Sporting Life websites? Can you tell me where it is? |
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It's just twitter rumours. Probably won't be far wrong but still nothing confirmed imo.
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Still some reasonable money for Simonsig on the lay side of the Supreme market which makes me think it's not 100% yet.
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Looks like Darlan will definitely go off favourite now.
Can still see him still going off quite a bit shorter than the general 7's and 8's he is now. |
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Dangerous if he goes off Fav imo. Lots of assumption built into his price (if he were to be Fav).
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Indeed. You have to assume he's completely over his fall at Newbury and that his laboured run at the December meeting can also be forgiven for some reason.
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Too many questions re Darlan at the price IMO. Will be interested to see which 4 year olds go for it?
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If Darlan had stood up and finished in the first 4 ,surely that form would be head and shoulders above what the
others have achieved in this field ? . The key may well be the ground at Cheltenham, if it rides on the slow side the hill could expose a stamina problem, but if it rides genuinely good and not very taxing ground he could well have too much pace for these. |
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read a preview eve with andrew tinkler on the panel and he rode darlan in work and reported he went really well and all systems go for the supreme and that he really fancied him for the race. looks sure to go and agree with those that think would have got very close to zarkander who they think is ch class.i think the price can only shorten now
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Agree that his price will shorten, and can see him going off much shorter than 7's
Might back him on here now @ 7's with the idea of laying it off on the day as a free bet. Get Me Out of Here went off 9/2 in his Supreme run, and can see Darlan going off something similar, maybe a bit shorter. |
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I just loaded up on Trifolium...probably missed the sexy prices but want to amass a team for this race & he lines up alongside Prospect Wells, Colour Squadron & Montbazon...
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I'm with Tinkler here Darlan looked to be running a massive race before falling, but therein lies the problem we'll never know. I also agree with the ground problem especially as he struggled on his run there, sadly as it's the first day we all know it'll be G-S so God only knows. I'm @ 18-1 average now plum deep have savers on Montbazon (respect Sint) & Dylan Ross (too many wines) plus have a decent punt on Tetlami who for me is the forgotten horse/value in the race. GL all but couldn't have panned out any better for me.
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Am also pleased that looks like Darlan is now going to run and with Montbazon and Vulcanite also still in, I might have all running which is a miracle in itself. Yes there is an element of 'what if' with Darlan's run in the Betfair, but the fact is he was being very competitive of 146 and in the context of the Supreme that is massive.
Like others the problem for me is the fall. Physically he may now be fine and he may be schooling well, but who knows what would happen when jumping at full pelt with plenty of horses around him, especially if he gets unsighted at one. I am not going to trade out however short he gets but nor am I tempted to go in again |
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I cant remember such an open market at this stage and the 10/1 still available on Saturday was fair enough. I have had a small bet at that price.
However many (most) of us are backing him with an eye to the race he appeared to be running behind Zarkandar. This might well turn out to be a reasonable reflection of his ability and rate of improvement in the same way that Spirit River's similarly eye-catching run in the same race did a couple of years ago. The difference is that Spirit River went off at 14/1 in a handicap, Darlan will probably be less than half those odds in a championship race. |
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No Darlan backers worried about his poor performance at Cheltenham in December?
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No he was running to get a mark albeit a rather large one in the end
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Part of the learning process for an inexperienced horse - also being prepared for the Betfair so with handicap mark in mind
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Interesting. I just thought he struggled to win, but then I wasn't watching with the Supreme in mind in fairness.
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That's bang on the nail strontium once your money's on you're no longer looking at anything in the cold light of day. Truth is it's wide open so we have to be on something otherwise it's not ante post? To some degree I'm with you as there are lots of ifs & buts, whilst Darlan is by far & away my biggest winner in the race I still have a gut feeling for Tetlami so there you are we all have our own perspective GL.
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very tough race to call
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Sous Les Cieux if lining up will have huge e/w shout on softish ground imo.
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Agree Stevo must respect Gailieos Choice also, ran a good second to to SLC showing good battling qualities & is one that worries me. Strewth this is a conundrum?
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Galileo's
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Anyone willing to offer 100/1 for Dylan ross for peanuts?
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Ive a small bet on & 70-1 he's got a serious chance in my opinion (no I haven't stopped taking the meds!)
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Seven Barrow's press day and Simonsig coming back in for Supreme. Coincidence? Though I guess all options will remain open.
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Jess has tweeted...
Steps to freedom schooled around 12 hurdles at the curragh this morning. He was very good all on track for @CheltenhamRaces |
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Nicky Henderson says he still doesn't know which race Simonsig will go for at the Cheltenham Festival.
The exciting novice is entered in the William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle over two miles and the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle over five furlongs further. The six-year-old grey enhanced his Festival prospects with an impressive victory in the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso last time. "I had a long chat with Simonsig's owner and we went from one race to another," said Henderson. "I don't know yet, it's a matter of deciding which is the right race for him. "He's got so much speed that swayed me towards the Supreme but then I swayed back to the Neptune. "Barry (Geraghty) initially thought Neptune and now he's wavering. "Darlan and Tetlami will both definitely run in the Supreme but that won't have any effect on the Simonsig decision. "We've others for the Neptune too and he'll just go for the race that is best for him." |
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Nicky Henderson says he still doesn't know which race Simonsig will go for at the Cheltenham Festival.
The exciting novice is entered in the William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle over two miles and the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle over five furlongs further. The six-year-old grey enhanced his Festival prospects with an impressive victory in the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso last time. "I had a long chat with Simonsig's owner and we went from one race to another," said Henderson. "I don't know yet, it's a matter of deciding which is the right race for him. "He's got so much speed that swayed me towards the Supreme but then I swayed back to the Neptune. "Barry (Geraghty) initially thought Neptune and now he's wavering. "Darlan and Tetlami will both definitely run in the Supreme but that won't have any effect on the Simonsig decision. "We've others for the Neptune too and he'll just go for the race that is best for him." |
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Well that's all crystal clear then.
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Neptune it is then
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Sounds like Supreme to me!
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seems like Henderson also stated at press day today that Sprinter Sacre is 'the one to beat' in the Arkle...must be a mine of information for those lucky to be there :)
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ive backed tetlami at nice prices but for some reason i cant get trifolium out my head...
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