Cheltenham Festival
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Supreme Novices
Supreme Novices
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Quite funny how people expect their cards to be filled out for them by trainers. In the wrong game if you think that will ever happen.
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said this before
have owned horses for 20 years plus never told anyone anything about the horses |
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you never told your pals when it was a going day??
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only my very closest buddies, certainly not broadcasting to all and sundry
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To be fair to NJH and the owners, its not like its an obvious decision is it? We're all split on here as to the best decision.
If he were mine, I reckon it would be my driving me bonkers trying to decide. Their priority isnt other punters or racing fans, but simply to give the horse the best chance of winning. Makes perfect sense to wait until nearer the time and look at other runners, ground etc |
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and even if they have decided they are not obliged to say
and in this case it is perfectly reasonable as CCM says |
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would make for a great press day
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thats ok then
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FFS At this rate Mono Man will hack up in Neptune with not a bean on, who knows?
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Well i am pocket talking and i don't care
 !Praying it to be for Supreme  , on at 16s !But in all seriousness, i backed it in what i believed at the time to be the best race for him, it takes a horse with plenty of guts, stamina and the speed to stay with them over the 2 miles to win supremes. Simonsig has all of these. Maybe the Fingal Bay 50/50 dilemma may sway them towards a crack at the Neptune as now fav' for that, and after the first 2/3 in the betting w/o FB it is a fairly weak affair! I have not got a clue where they will head, though the very fact that he was laid out to 80 in last couple days for supreme and backed into short (ish) fav's for neptune says it all to me and all them that have backed him in on the back of that news bulletin have done their dough! Just a hunch like, but reading these betfair markets is imo absolutely essential at least as far as this yard is concerned as his horses always get laid at big prices long before any kind of press release about a horses welfare! |
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judorick
28 Feb 12 15:15 Joined: 27 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 2,928 | Blogger: judorick's blog only my very closest buddies, certainly not broadcasting to all and sundry Have never been able to understand this with certain people me, surely if inside knowledge is known about a horse race, i.e that a particular horse in a race is much better than compatriots and wins unless something untoward happens, it is in the benefit of punters to find this out, whether it be close to the off if your not there to bad or whatever. We are all in it to back winners after all, and i really do not think mine and other's tenners are going to make a whole heap of difference tbh, after all, you as privileged info person will already and long since have backed it! |
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Much as I would love to have Judo's information, I can understand his position completely. Have never owned a horse nor likely to but would be on a hiding to nothing. Say it is going to win and then it does, you will be hounded all the time for info each time it runs. Loses and then abuse would follow though I accept not from all.
Getting back to Simonsig however, it is my opinion that if they have made a decision they should inform the public - it is ultimately our money that funds racing. I don't think that FB is an issue now, they must know he isn't going to run and even if it did, surely cannot win a Championship having missed at least 7 days work so close to the event. I do understand the ground issues etc because if they had suddenly had 3 days rain and they had said the Neptune...... |
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The Simonsig situation really isn't that difficult. He will only run in the Supreme on proper soft ground. On normal Cheltenham ground he will run in the Neptune and now has a very good chance of winning it with FB effectively sidelined.
Why....becasue he is a big horse who doesn't jump hurdles particularly quickly and will be at a big disadvantage in the shorter race on quicker ground. |
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"To be fair to NJH and the owners, its not like its an obvious decision is it? We're all split on here as to the best decision."
FFS anyone with a pair of eyes can see this is a supreme horse. Got outstayed over 2m4f at Sandown why do people think it has a hope in hell over a furlong further and a stiffer track. Bonkers. |
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Workforce. You obviously know more than Barry Geraghty then? To base your opinion on that one run is more bonkers IMO.
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It was Soft ground at Sandown and being beaten by Fingal Bay is hardly disgraceful.
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They may go Neptune and then bring him back to two miles next season when he is more mature. The tried and tested route for a Champion Hurdler.
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@ seathestars
when you pay the training bill then you call the shots and one trainer I was with sacked plenty of stable staff that were found to be letting their mates know |
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CCM - not basing my opinion on one run, am basing it upon Sandown and combining it with the common denominator he has shown in all his races, namely speed/pace which suggests to me he will prove most effective around 2m.
Sint - I would say the trip is far more relevant to his chances of (not) staying in the Neptune at cheltenham as opposed to the ground. |
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You are basing the fact he won't stay on that one run. The fact he has loads of natural speed doesn't prove he wont stay.
I am not saying I think he would be better off in the Neptune but there are quite clearly pros and cons to each race, and it's definitely not as clear cut as you suggest. |
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sea the stars......Have never been able to understand this with certain people me, surely if inside knowledge is known about a horse race, i.e that a particular horse in a race is much better than compatriots and wins unless something untoward happens, it is in the benefit of punters to find this out, whether it be close to the off if your not there to bad or whatever. We are all in it to back winners after all, and i really do not think mine and other's tenners are going to make a whole heap of difference tbh, after all, you as privileged info person will already and long since have backed it.
i think you're a bit nieve on this point. we all want to win,but you have to understand punters are out to win for themselves,especially on here where punter is one to one back or lay. i'll give you a true example of why owners are reluctant to give away info except to very close friends and family members[at least those trusted not to blab.] as said above,if you tip a winner people hound you for more if they win and some abuse may follow if lose. i have a close friend who has owned many horses. his first runner was with a,then,fledgling stable. the horse was laid out for an ordinary low class race first time out. morning betting forecast between 14/1 to 20/1 word got out,from who it was never certain,although acquaintances of the trainer were thought to be the culprits cheif among them a priest who had been telling all and sundry his'tip'. It was not a race the bookies priced up in the morning those days. By the time any of the course bookies priced up word was out and it opened at generally 6/1 and backed into 4/1 at the off. it duly won[beating a subsequent festival winner] and became a good moneyspinner for the yard. a lesson learnt by the stable and owners. |
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Gentlemen, I have read all of the recent posts with interest, when you stand back and take in what has been said today is nothing new, we all knew they were considering the option of the Neptune based upon his riders comments as to the horses ability to jump at speed. All todays comments do is reinforce what everyone already knew. What is clear is the following, at Kelso he made a couple of mistakes at the last two fences, in the Supreme the same mistakes against much better and hardened racers will not go unpunished, Fingal Bay is probably not the competition it was but this has still to be confirmed as a non runer,the bookmeakers go 3-1fav for one race and 13/2 fav for the other and lets not kid ourselves they dont often get it wrong. NJH is not a fool he wants to win the Supreme but if you look at the way Darlan was running last time out (before falling that is) and bearing in mind it is owned by JP who he does not want to upset if he can avoid it so is his thinking not along the lines that his horses could have favourites chances in both races, which surely vindicate his decision. I was on big time in the Supreme but have laid a big chunk of it off but my own thoughts are that he will run Simonsig in the Neptune. Only my thoughts and perhaps have some merit.
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Gentlemen, I have read all of the recent posts with interest, when you stand back and take in what has been said today is nothing new, we all knew they were considering the option of the Neptune based upon his riders comments as to the horses ability to jump at speed. All todays comments do is reinforce what everyone already knew. What is clear is the following, at Kelso he made a couple of mistakes at the last two fences, in the Supreme the same mistakes against much better and hardened racers will not go unpunished, Fingal Bay is probably not the competition it was but this has still to be confirmed as a non runer,the bookmeakers go 3-1fav for one race and 13/2 fav for the other and lets not kid ourselves they dont often get it wrong. NJH is not a fool he wants to win the Supreme but if you look at the way Darlan was running last time out (before falling that is) and bearing in mind it is owned by JP who he does not want to upset if he can avoid it so is his thinking not along the lines that his horses could have favourites chances in both races, which surely vindicate his decision. I was on big time in the Supreme but have laid a big chunk of it off but my own thoughts are that he will run Simonsig in the Neptune. Only my thoughts and perhaps have some merit.
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CCM - Cash and Go still OK?
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Is Prospect Wells running??, did anyone hear Nicholls give any clues, what ever his merit,the animal wont be 25s
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Graham Wylie says he will run Zilzal, had a breathing op after Sandown aswell.
Tiday Bay wont be running in the GC either, goes to Aintree. |
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Cheers Sint, im going to be on Now
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Hi Tory... I'am afraid to say his chances are diminishing by the day tbh
 He is just taking a little bit longer than we would have hoped to recover and I dont think there is going to be quite enough of a break to get him 100% for the week after next. And there isnt any point risking his well being for the future and running him in a race of this nature unless he is 100%.Not completely decided but I'd say more likely than not he wont be lining up as things stand today. |
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Sorry to hear that ccm - as you say plenty of days ahead
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Thanks for the update CCM.
Bit gutted as I have 30% of what I have alloted for the race on him but is obviously much worse for you and if he doesnt turn up then I hope he gives you many better days in the future. Toss up between Tetlami and Galileo's Choice for me now then |
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Its neptune. Not a bean on the horse for either race, but think sintonian and ginger make extremely valid points.
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Yes i understand all the reasons why about info etc.
However, was not long ago, (a few years) my father worked in the local hospital alongside a fella who's brother used to be a HGV driver. He was free lance, and used to drive horse boxes around, not just race horses but all kinds. Every now and again he would get the nod. I remember one such occasion, it was at Ludlow just before Christmas, the horse was called 'Touch Closer' and was the outsider of 5 at 22/1. We duly got the nod that this was out to win and so we all backed it. I had 15 ew on, a monumental bet at that kind of price for me! It duly obliged, but its sp was 25/1! Obviously all in the know backed it, all and sundry who new about this backed it yet its sp was still bigger than its morning tissue price! This happened a good few times. We dont get the info anymore as this lad does not drive them no more. Which is unfortunate, but just like to add, not all of the tips contracted in price but only one lost too! Tips we got inc very wise in lincoln as a ew tip with thought he was very well in but wouldnt be any good after, there was a few others but those two stick in my mind! |
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Will go back in on Simonsig now.
7/1 NRNB seems very fair to me. No risk that he doesn't turn up and that's the same price he was just after he won at Kelso. Cannot see him being 7/1 on the day if this was confirmed as his target. |
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anyone have any info on Prospect Wells Target , The Supreme , The County or neither ?
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Simonsig if he turns up, Tetlami or Gal Choice if he doesn't
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Check the preview nights thread sure that PN was saying he hoped to run him in the Supreme but best read through it for yourself as I was skimming the Supreme parts.
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Prospect wells goes for the Supreme,the clue was PFN's top tip was the County bound Empire Levant.Hardly,think he would put it up as his top AP bet then appose it with a horse like PW,he has also been pretty bullish about PW in the last few days,maybe the op on the entrapped epiglottis has done the trick,like it did for last years mystery Cheltenham winner.
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Prospect wells goes for the Supreme,the clue was PFN's top tip was the County bound Empire Levant.Hardly,think he would put it up as his top AP bet then appose it with a horse like PW,he has also been pretty bullish about PW in the last few days,maybe the op on the entrapped epiglottis has done the trick,like it did for last years mystery Cheltenham winner.
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thanks
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Trifolium is now a big price on here. Posts elsewhere suggest Davy Russell had been a bit negative at a preview night and thought the ground would be too quick for him but Claisse keeps stating he is aiming for G/S on the opening day and surely on that basis they will run him. 10 points bigger on here than he was 10 days or so ago and no real drift elsewhere.
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