Cheltenham Festival
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Sprinter Sacre - Arkle Winner 2012
Sprinter Sacre - Arkle Winner 2012
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Replies: 1,477
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I know Bud
 Tinkler - I think Sprinter Sacre would win the Queen Mother. He will dominate for the next3/4 years. |
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cheerio,see you after cheltenham lads.
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Budd before you leave I've got an invitation for you to the Sprinter Sacre celebration party. It will be held here after the festival and will go on for many days! happy punting
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tinkler
08 Mar 12 19:23 Joined: 02 Sep 10 | Topic/replies: 1,096 | Blogger: tinkler's blog Sizing Europe is rated 176 and I think it's debatable whether he'd get Sprinter Sacre off the bridle. HYPE 37 COMMON SENSE 0 - I'm with Budd, complete waste of time making sensible points when people are in megahype mode, even worse than Dunguib 2 years ago and I didn't think that was possible. |
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too late,ive gone MM,enjoy mate.
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Clutching at straws now Thieves with your name dropping comparisons.
Dunguib 156 nearly all wins in soft/heavy ground with a poor rider. Hardly the same as a novice chaser already rated 169 ( Moscow Flyer reached 170 only after an Arkle win and a year later a QM victory) yes it took Moscow Flyer two seasons to reach 170. SS has done it after 3 races. |
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HYPE 0 COMMON SENSE (OFFICIAL RATINGS) 69
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169
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Official handicapper is a hype victim. Pillock was already rating the Gold Cup in advance in his blog. Should be sacked.
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Will you lay me 6/4 Sprinter Sacre Thieves?
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Why would I do that when I could lay it on here for about 2.08? That's if I was a layer, which I'm not. Would rather have 2 horses I fancy running for me at 2/1 than 2 horses I fancy and 3 I don't running for me at 10/11!
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I would rather back a winner at 2.08 than back 2 losers.
GL anyway Thieves its been emotional. |
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Angel would you like to see him beat a decent field before the Arkle ?
Peddlers is not even up to running in this race and the two handicappers at Newbury weren't much cop. He looked impressive but Cheltenham doesn't take any prisoners. Taking on two horses that have been there and done it as well. Maybe better Evens shots in the week ?? |
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HYPE 37 COMMON SENSE 0 - I'm with Budd, complete waste of time making sensible points when people are in megahype mode, even worse than Dunguib 2 years ago and I didn't think that was possible.
My opinion is based on what I've seen of the horse on the track and nothing to do with what connections have said about the horse and any hype. The opinion may not be true but obviously I think it is and that your opinion is wide of the mark , time will show whose opinion was right. |
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Better evens shots?! This horse is Pegasus dont you know. Even Sizing Europe wouldnt get him off the bridle!!!
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sqn3_NePQ3A
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I think its about trusting my judgement when you see a horse of real quality. Frankel followers will remember when they realised he was a great. I get the same feeling with Sprinter Sacre.
I can forget his run in the Supreme last year. Chasing is a different game. He has had his wind operation and is by far the most natural chaser from last years hurdling crop at 2 miles. The point made about him not beating a decent field does not bother me because i am confident of his ability. So it seems is the handicapper, the trainer, the jockey, other jockey`s, other trainers, other racing pundits, other stable staff, racing historians and myself .Al Ferof has been beaten by Finians Rainbow no wonder Hendersons team will not hear of defeat. Cheltenham is all about jumping and he is the most natural jumper in the race. He will save gas at his fences. |
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Thanks for that CV. Nice to see Willie Mullins has his head screwed on, clowns in pink jumpers talking about winning by a fence just make me more convinced that this is a bubble waiting to be burst.
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Cheltenham isnt 'all about jumping'.
Its a big factor, without doubt. But stamina is just as big imo. There have been countless horses that have pinged them all only to not have the most important thing of all, and thats the heart for the hill at the end of a Championship race. SS might well have it in spades, and fly up the hill.... but that is based on much guesswork and the hype surrounding this horse is definitely over the top to my eyes. Anyone who loves racing wants to see star's and the next Moscow, Istabraq etc.... but I think the hyperbole should be saved until he has actually done it. To say a horse that could have won a Champion Hurdle, then won an Arkle, then produced one of the best performances I've ever seen in last years QM, wouldnt get a horse that has only 3 runs over fences, off the bridle, is nothing short of ridiculous. |
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I'd hardly call Tom Segal a clown
 He said it'd win by a fence, Paudi said it'd win by half the track?. |
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Be aware that when the ground rides fast at Cheltenham - as it seems it inevitably will - the course becomes quite sharp with much less emphasis on stamina and much more on speed and agility.
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He may win by 2 fences. I'll take my hat off to him and we have a new superstar.
He has done nothing to deserve a rating of 18lbs over Menorah and 14lbs over Cue Card...yet. If they raced tomorrow would you back him ? Al Ferof is over rated as well on a line through For Non Stop and Cue Card. In fact, I have Cue Card higher rated than him by 4lbs. |
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If you jump well at Cheltenham you save energy, if you dont then you lose energy!!
When Sizing Europe won the Arkle he gained a rating of 157. Sprinter Sacre already 169... When Sizing Europe won the Queen Mother he gained a rating of 176. Do we think Sprinter Sacre has finished on an upward curve ? Not a chance. Lets see what his rating is after tuesday. |
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ff. I wouldnt ever call Cheltenham 'sharp' even when riding fast myself.
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Segal has a good record at seeking value but revealed his big secret the other week - he backs the jockey not the horse. Left me wondering about him to be honest. I think people just forget how hard and how competitive these races are year after year after year when they get carried away on horses that win regular races on the bridle. Kauto Star is the biggest star in the game and he has run in 6 championship races at Cheltenham (to date) - he won 2 of them. It just isn't that easy.
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I think anyone who believes SS deserves 169, based on what he's done, has been sucked into the hype.
I'm not saying he cant run to that mark, and very well might do in this race, but I think its ridiculous. No point going around in circles again, as we all know what we all think. |
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Gabriel, horses like SS get into a great rhythm running on flat courses, especially big 2m oval galloping tracks with easy turns like Newbury and Doncaster. Cheltenham breaks up that rhythm with it's undulations. He may not look the same horse there.
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To put SS's win at Donny nearly a stone better than SE's win in the Arkle is actually hilarious!
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Segal of course does not back the jockey - he spends hours watching videos and looking for horses with the right attitudes for the purpose of a particular race. Then he looks at the pace of the race, the draw etc..but he spends hours looking at horses for attitude.
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SS beat a 134 horse by 24 L at Donny. Not sure what that equates to
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Tara Royal beat that same horse 10 lengths. Could be a match race
 on the cards |
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A 134 horse based on a win over what passes for fences at Hexham and who didn't run to that at Sedgefield. Horses with form round those tracks can rarely produce anywhere near the same level when stepping up to a tougher track. He couldn't even get close to reproducing 134 at Musselburgh either.
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Admittedly the second was heavily eased., but what more can you do but win on the bridle and break a course record. It is hard to **** these novices until they meet. Visual reading of a race can be deceiving of course. So you have to go with your own interpretation of the factors in front of you.
Very much like detective work innit! |
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**assess
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It's going to get very boring on here next without a plethora of posts expressing righteous indignation, either in favour or against. I still contend that SS will run to 170 (officially) on Tuesday and whatever beats him, wins the race.
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theives you can't use Kauto as a stat tbf, he races in the Gold Cup which is a brutal race and very very hard to win more than once.
For example the other three races have plenty of repeat winners. |
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Here is last years Supreme.
I think it is interesting viewing...stop the race 2 out he looks an aeroplane. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nANps0jY2pI Till he gets up the hill 9/1 E/W Cue Card is the value in my opinion. |
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All the grade ones are very hard to win at Cheltenham CV, wasn't really using KS as a stat just as an a reminder of how hard it is! Best horse this century and twice a faller in championship races here. It is never as easy as people think.
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Hilbore
Had a breathing operation since. He hit the last hurdle which everyone knows can effect the wind intake, |
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I find it interesting that you tip cue card after watching that video given that Sprinter stayed on up the hill just as well if not better than he did!
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