Cheltenham Festival
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Sprinter Sacre - Arkle Winner 2012
Sprinter Sacre - Arkle Winner 2012
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Gonna be a 5 runner affair
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Maybe 6? Front 5 in the betting plus maybe Foildubh?
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Sprinter Sacre (10/11) , Al Ferof (11/4) , Peddlers Cross (3) , Cue Card (7) , Menorah (10) , Blackstairmountain (16) , Bog Warrior (16), 33's bar
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Fav will have trouble settling with so few runners,gonna be very interesting how this pans out.
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Budd - Not necessarily dissagreeeing - But look at SS three races over fences - Largest field 6 - and it didn't matter
On the bridle booooooooooooooooooom |
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Different kettle of fish this lot mate,different track as well.
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Still if hes as good as some say he is,probably wont matter!!
IF! |
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2 jocks confirmed
Al Ferof (FR) 7.g Paul Nicholls R. Walsh Cue Card 6.g Colin Tizzard Joe Tizzard |
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That's Cue Cards' chance gone then!
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Joe Tizzard has already stated that he make a real race of it on Cue Card so SS should have no trouble settling off a strong pace. Obviously tactics could change with such a small field though.
CMIYC - I don't think Peddlers is 3/1 any more! |
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Sprinter Sacre (10/11) , Al Ferof (11/4) , Cue Card (7) , Menorah (10) , Blackstairmountain (16) , Cristal Bonus (25) , Kid Cassidy (33) , Astracad (66) , Foildubh (80) , Nearest The Pin (80)
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db,
Still a ONE HORSE race it seems |
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I keep reading that Sprinter Sacre won't stay but didn't he run 2 miles 4 furlongs over hurdles when he was according to Nicky H "a shell of a horse"? Ran second to Frascati Park at Ascot didn't he? That's just off the top of my head. And he has since won 3 chases in impressive fashion, had a breathing operation and is reported to have transformed physically since his novice hurdle days. Doesn't scream non stayer to me.
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Judo, his opponents have to hang their hopes onto something. He is both the best jumper and traveller in the race by some margin. Having a mishap - falling/beimg brought down is a more likley cause of defeat IMO - but it is not PC for fellow trainers/jockeys to make such observations.
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Martin pipe returns 07 Mar 12 08:25
SJ I agree. In any case I don't think we'll find out as he will be so far clear after jumping the last that it will be a hands and heels looking round job. Double figure winning distance IMO. All this from one of the more cynical forumites on here (I still struggle to think Kauto is the real deal !! And as for Grands Crus - don't get me started). As for Chilldown, soz but it's gash :) Very very true |
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He is both the best jumper and traveller in the race by some margin
thats open to debate imo |
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jhh7GGZR57k
Is this all there is of SS on Youtube? |
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as is the repeated suggestion that he won't get up the hill - you can debate anything you want budd
I say Al Ferof is a slow poke that needs 3 miles and is going to get left behind when they turn the taps on go on tell me you don't agree as if I didn't know that already |
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AF didn't seem to need 3 miles over hurdles...
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judo u r a clueless clown
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al ferof posted a faster time in the supreme than HF did in the champion hurdle, hardly makes him slow u idiot, regardless of how the race was ran, some people r just morons
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 You aint repeated yourself then Judo,not once,eh!! |
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Think hes lost it to be honest.
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There is very few on here who can take both arguements into consideration and will not listen to other people's points.
For me Al Ferof stayed on better in the Supreme of that there can be no doubt. But to simply say SS didnt get up the hill and he wont again is the biggest mountain of cobblers I've ever seen |
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Totally agree SJ,but i think it fair to have doubts about a horse getting home at Cheltenham well enough to win a race if it has failed to do that before.
Thats not saying he wont this year,and i have never once said he wont,but until he shows me he can finish a proper run race at Cheltenham i am allowed to have doubts,particularly when it involves a short priced one. |
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I'm with you mate there are clearly doubts, cos he hasnt done it yet as you really
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Heres one for you guys, i am a backer of SS at 9/4, as i am the field with a massive under round (any result fine by me)!
My book is this - Alf biggest winner, SS not far behind, CC nice ish, Men, money back, Blackstairs money back. Although i have SS as a good winner, if this makes sense, i am opposed to him and cannot see him winning this at all. I do think i have my book about right. I think Alf will win and the way i see the race panning out i have posted already (not sure if it was this thread) |
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Well laying your SS back and have more on Al Ferof then
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No, don't like to mess with it after its settled, i have them where i want them, should i change it and be wrong i would not ever forgive myself. Just as bad as being torn between two horses, backing only one and then changing your mind and the original pick winning. Hate that and try to avoid that as much as possible and i feel this is where i am with this. I once was a massive SS fan, but over the last couple weeks, i come to side more and more with the Alf camp!
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SS might be favourite, but hes the one who hasd it to prove: grade 1 winner? never won at cheltenham? never beaten al ferof
were as al ferof has won 2 grade 1's 2nd in another, and has won at chelt, im happ on AF at 8/1 |
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Would love to know ur average price given you have backed every ****ing horse in the race.
Anyone questioning Sprinter Sacre around Cheltenham should also take into account his best performance by some way as a hurdler was at the course. His highest RPR was at Cheltenham as a hurdler followed by his 2nd run at Ascot, next was his debut over 2m 4 at Ascot. His lowest RPR all season funnily enough was on the flattest track Ffos Las. There is no evidence he is worse at Cheltenham other than getting beaten by 2 very good hurdlers at the time. I would guess looking at him physically and looking at his performances he has improved dramatically from an already lofty standard. Feel free to carry on hoping he won't get up the hill but that relly is al it is and a very slim one. |
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really* all*
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STS is a lunatic. A few years ago he was using a points betting system, had 50 on masterminded or something and about 1 or 2 on anything else. Course he was stuffed.
Yet STS was back on here crowing what a great festival he had had....  |
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There are posters on here clearly a lot more confident about AF than Ruby, who has publically admitted that his horse has to improve to beat SS. You can see why really. Offcially rated 9lbs inferior by the official handicapper. Outpaced by FR at Ascot through whom Hendo will have a very good line of comparison at home. He knows which is the better horse and it isn't FR.
AF could well improve next Tuesday but why should he improve any more than SS? The latter is the younger and less exposed horse, so logically should have more scope to progress, especially as he hasn't has a race over fences yet. |
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A fair chance pocket talk is in action here
SS is a superstar in the making, this does not fit the agenda of those who have backed the will runs (also rans after you know). |
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`Coming up the hill` is all about energy conservation.
Sprinter Sacre looks to effortlessly measure his fences and i think the other horses will be out jumped. Its all so easy for him over fences. Last year he was just another novice hurdler who gained nothing in terms of ground or energy conserved over hurdles. No point comparing last seasons hurdle form. |
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Thing is FF these are all improving novices and we dont know which one will put in the most improved performance next week,it could be AF,could be SS,could be one of the others.Also could be that however AF etc improve they wont beat SS.
Those that form ratings have the same info to hand as we do,and do not take ino account future form with improving horses,the difference between a proper test at Cheltenham and the races they have had so far,plus how the race may be run. If the highest rated horse won every race,we would all be rich!! |
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AG,would you be concerned that a small runner field may see SS burn a bit too much energy during the race to be able to finish it off strongly enough to repel obvious strong finishers?
Think i would be if i had him backed,particularly if i had a lot of money at a short price. |
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Bud
If i was a backer i am not sure were i would want SS turning for home. Do they risk kicking him on or save him. Personally i think they will ride him the same as they have in his 3 races this season. What people are forgetting is that running free over hurdles is not the same as over fences. Over fences a free running type has to the bigger obstacles to contain him more. I would guarantee that SS will have more in reserve this year. I have not backed him but i will probably 2 mins before the race. |
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He will be in front turning for home AG,pretty sure of that,how far is the question imo.
Hes a horse that pulls himself to the front and will probably do that next week,and i dont think thats ideal in an Arkle. If he is as good as BG and many on here say it could well be that he will be too good however he runs,but ive yet to see a horse do this as a novice at Cheltenham so have my doubts and have wagered accordingly,but if he does it the way i think he will have to to win the race then its hats off and hail a super horse. Exciting stuff!! |