Cheltenham Festival
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People don't actually take bets like this do they?????
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I have. Didn't think I'd ever take less than 10/1 about a Festival bet in Novemeber, but I've already had 2 this season (Cue Card & Sam Winner)! His performance on Friday was about 10lbs short of Champion Hurdle class and better than requird to win most Supremes.
I can't see the Tizzards aiming for the Chapion with a (currently) 4yo novice, what's the rush? 2pts Cue Card |
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said on tv earlier whatever he WILL go novice chasing next year and the impression i got was that he favours having a go at the big one, id hold fire.
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The Champion Bumper last year was one of the worst ever run...this thing is the new Dunguib.
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Worthy favourite for the Supreme but should be 6/1 at least at this early stage
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How on earth have you come to the conclusion that the Champion Bumper was the worst ever run?
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'Worst' because an English horse won it, perchance?
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Worst because he is a serial guesser as proved last year
Don't dare to have a conflicting view to ballydoyle whatever you do I take it there is plenty of your money on the lay side....actually I don't coz I know you talk thru yer arse. Cue the backlash from ballymug haha Capt clueless the English hating bigot is back |
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Agree it's rather daft, Sam Winner at 6/1 for the Triumph is a worse price though imo.
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Putting aside the credentials of last seasons Champion Bumper, Cue Card is no Dunguib, he's acted over hurdles at Cheltenham! I think 3's is a fair price for what we've seen so far, I wouldn't want to lay much bigger!
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LOL at The Joker...still counting the cash from your 1 winner at Chelts?
What did I say to you? Me n you will have a convo in March...this is the 4th time I've asked you for a head to head...is it gonna be another no? English-hating? And I'm Irish am I? |
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I really don't understand why some people seem to think you need to have put money down to be entitled to an opinion?
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his biggest danger runs tommorow
SPRINTER SACRE |
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@waterwheel
I disagree with sam winner being a worse price your betting on a horse that has 1 specific target so if all being well he will line up in the triumph as cue card is 3's and i possible to run in either supremes/neptuneor champion i would rather take the 6's but would not bet both at this stage if you think cue card is a shoe in the novice events the 2/1 with blue triangle.. to win any race at chelt seem fair as if remains unbeaten will be very short regardless unless in the champion |
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It's November and taking 2/1 Cue Card to win any Festival race is fair?
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Apologies Ballydoyle if I had you wrong there. All I know is I heard Ruby apparently yelled at Joe Tizzard as he was cruising past in the Bumper, "What the F*ck is that?". The thing's a machine and he's proved he can take a hurdle which is more than Dunguib did.
What odds could you get on Cue Card winning the Supreme and then turning out next day for the Ballymore? |
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hes beaten nothing exactly the same as dunguib did everything hes faced this season he beat them pointless in the bumper so we have learnt nothing new .they,ll be a few horses to come out who won their only bumper or a good flat horse maybe something like menorah last season unexposed 1 bumper win .and hes with a terrible trainer and ridden by an idiot too
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Fair point Big Buck's. Honestly, I couldn't even consider putting money down on either. My instinct is to assume talk of the Champion Hurdle is meaningless, but perhaps I'm wrong. Either way the Neptune is a very real possibility. The 2/1 any race isn't a bet I want to make either, but to be fair, based on dutching the best prices it does look to be "value".
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'hes beaten nothing exactly the same as dunguib did'
This is wrong at this point last year Dunguib had only won 2 races at 1/7 and 2/13 fto he beat a horse that had won a bumper and ptp 4L with the 3rd hore only another 1L back beatenn over 40L on his debut. Nto he beat a horse who was beaten in a 9k race into 2nd with a 106 rated horse in 3rd. Cue Card this season admittidly didnt beat much fto but in this last race he has beaten a host of lto winners rangeing in ratings from 127 to 140 and he has show that he has no problems with Cheltenham. Dont get me wrong I am usually against these hype jobs and have made plenty in doing so over the years but I must admit that his performance was one of the best I have seen from a novice. For me I think he will win his next race with ease and the decision will be made that he takes the Champion Hurdle. Now I am not saying that he will win it but I do belive he will run in it and most probably start at around 4/1. For that reason Im backing him for the Champion Hurdle at 16/1 |
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Well said Abbot,,, dunguib is not in the same league as Cue Card....Backed it at all prices for the supreme and still backing it at 3/1...forget the Champion...not on the agenda.
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3/1 on a Champion Bumper winner can NEVER be value....he may win but if you take a pragmatic view crazy betting
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dunguib continued to beat some present and sweeps hill all season long.the only half decent horse cue card has faced is dunraven storm who he beat 30l in the bumper yet only beat 10l at cheltenham the other day .those horses behind them are 110 at best .i like cue card but 2/1 for the supreme is a joke he should be 6/1
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He might win but antepost betting is not about back at a short price in November? Well not in my world.
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I am sure it was around this time last year that Dunguib was odds on for the supreme...Hardly the festval bumper, the race he won the other day against DS, he will still be undefeated come this time next year.... why is 3/1 short for the supreme in your opinion... 3s for the supreme is top value there is nothing to beat him.
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Nothing to beat him??
We aint even seen all the potential rivals yet!! If we had i might think 3 is a good price,but we aint,so it aint imo |
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where is the opposition coming from Bud..?
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^^ it's November....
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But where are the opposition, unlike most trends in racing this is one that is changing quite rapidly... i think you will find that most of the Champions will becoming out earlier in the year , having quite a few runs under their belt, before the festival especially in the novice races. Something that lots of people wont take into consideration always waiting till nearer the festival to see if anything is good enough to beat the already favorite, its something that everyone should really be looking into... the majority of trainers styles have changed over the last few years...
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Alvarado, come on. Comparing bumper form with Dunraven Storm is ridiculous. The horse has only been beaten twice. Cue Card only had him to aim at when the Irish horse faded and desposed of him easily. What has the bumper distance got to do with it? DS clearly didn't run to form in that race anyway.
And the 'those horses behind them are 110 at best' comment is laughable. Owen Glendower for a start was unbeaten over hurdles, beat Mr Hyde who went on to win nto (and is now rated 125). Was also a Nicholls 127 rated hurdler in behind OG that day too. Ballyadam Brook was second in a grade 3 (sent off fav) and lost to a horse who then finished second in another grade 3. King of the Night pulverised Fiulin, a 130 rated hurdler, on his hurdling debut and was fairly murdered by Cue Card in a truly run race. This form puts him on a rating of at least 150+, and that's ridiculous for a novice. This is taking into account the ease in which he beat Dunraven Storm. He is a different horse to Dunguib. It looked like Cue Card was sleeping when he hit the front in the bumper, as soon as Joe shook the reigns the horse made everything else stand still. He jumps his hurdles well and is rightly favourite for the Supreme. The thing that puts me off backing him is that I have a horrible feeling he'll end up in the Champion. The current price is right for the Supreme though. |
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no idea scoop,but i will be amazed if we have seen all the candidates thus far.
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I am the first to be sceptical about bumper winners in Festival novice hurdles but I believe this one could be an exception along with the likes of Montelado and Monsignor. He travels very very strongly and has gears the aforesaid had. Better value than Dunguib last season winning half paced soft ground races against an average Irish bunch though he is all class also I dont think he is as good as Cue Card will be eventually.
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Dunraven Storm held the Cue Card form up well there...Cue Card should be odds on now...
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FFS...
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tell you what i will give you 3.1-1 ....the form is nothing but a visual treat, fools gold.....
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kid cassidy very impressive at newbury on friday
big danger |
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i think the threes has gone now
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13/5 on here
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surely they now know which rae there going for ?? why not just come out n say , i can start dong a few multiples then with this beast in
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a definite double with time for rupert is on the cards, would be soul destroying if both hacked up and no return
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not good enough exposed hyped up horse who was put in his place last time will do well to get placed
zaidpour vs sprinter sacre |