Yes, I fancy Zaidpour in the Supreme Novices Hurdle thanks and I fancy Long Run and Somersby in the Ryanair thanks. Oh yeah and I fancy Brampour in the Triumph Hurdle thanks. Next question!

Surprised you taking any notice CV

Mayweather...claudia?

put it like that mate-fair enough

okey doke.
do me a favour sunshine,could you give me the winner of the Champion Hurdle,and also i need some help with the Neptune-really struggling with that race.

Another favourite. Go check who is fav for the neptune then and come back with your selection.

cant have hurricane fly never been or raced at chelt an his form with solwit i cant have him beating binno PC looks good bet to me

Maybe Dan,but if HF shows that turn of foot he will take a good one to beat him,IF!!

We are now half way through the season proper, so I thought I'd take a look at the Arkle Chase now most the main contenders have had a chance to strut their stuff.

I had a very early look at this race in september on my other blog;

(http://extremeconviction.blogspot.com/2010/09/2011-arkle-chase-very-early-view.html)

As can be seen from there, I've found that in this race it is best to focus on those with classy hurdles form.  My shortlist of three there were Finian's Rainbow, Captain Chris and Muirhead. Unfortunately I selected Muirhead and not Finian's Rainbow as my main selection. Muirhead won in very workmanlike fashion first time out before disappointing next time. However, all though many people may be tearing up their slips on him, I wouldn't say all hope on him is lost yet. Both those runs have been on very soft ground, and it is expected he will be a much better horse on the quicker spring ground. He's still entered in the Irish Arkle in a couple of weeks time which is encouraging, and it is hoped if the ground is slightly quicker he'll put up a much improved effort there. At the moment I'd say Finian's Rainbow is the most likely winner in the field, but at 6/1 with only one win in a 3 runner chase under his name it's hard to say he represents real value.


Ghizao - One to take on

One I would be keen to take on is Ghizao, for a few reasons. All though some people argue it's not relevant, as he's showed improved form over fences, I firstly can't have him because of his hurdles form. He's rated 135 over the smaller obstacles, which is somewhere below the usual standard of an Arkle winner and was humped out of sight when stepped up to a Grade 1 at the festival last year. Another worry is the ground, there is more than a suggestion that he needs cut, with his 3 disappointing efforts all being on officially good ground since going over hurdles. If we get ground similar to that we had at the 2010 festival or slightly slower, I would worry about him.

Also he's never produced that decent a time in his career with his highest topspeed being 128. 8/10 winners have achieved at least 141 before their festival wins. The exceptions being Well Chief on 130 and Azertyuiop 138. Of course, these two went on to become great 2 mile chasers, but I just can't have the below top class hurdler Ghizao turning into one of the 2mile Champions in years to come. Finally, the only Arkle winner in the last 10 years to lose his first chase (Moscow Flyer - Fell fto, won next) was Contraband who came 2nd in a listed chase first time out.  Ghizao was said not to be fit, first time out, but for an Arkle winner in waiting, you'd expect him still to be able to beat Kilmurry when not fully fit.

Of the Irish contingent who ran in the grade 1 at Leopardstown over christmas, I would take the winner, Realt Dubh out of all of them. The faller at the last, Saludos, was going equally as well as him but connections have said he needs soft ground which he is unlikely to get at the festival. Torphichen and Noble Prince would both worry me on the class front, and more importantly their liking for the course, Torphichen has disappointed twice at the course and Noble Prince flattened out like many Montjeus when hitting the hill last year in the County Hurdle. Realt Dubh on the other hand has a great record over 2 miles (taking out first time out runs) 212121F11. Only being beaten by Luska Lad (shd) Cousin Vinny and MDH. Also he's shown he can get a bit further so looks tailor made for the race, aswell, as already running a thoroughly decent time. Through Loosen My Load, he also has superior form to Ghizao, yet he's a much bigger price.


Rock Noir

Another one I'm very keen on, and who I completely missed out in my first write up is Rock Noir. He fits the bill in that he was a classy hurdler, Grade 1 winner in France. Then JP McManus apparently forked out a fortune for him to come over to these shores. Such was the regard that he was held in that he was 2-1 favourite for a competitive handicap at Ascot on a saturday (think Beshabar won it?), when the odds came out midweek, before not making the race. This was off a handicap mark of 152. He then ran first time out in the County off 152 and was backed into 9/1 third favourite, so they obviously think a lot of him. He was disappointing here, but O'Neill's are notoriously not great first time out (excuse also for first time out this year).

Since embarking chasing, he has two electric runs to his names and two poor runs. However, there are possible excuses for those two failures. First time it was his first run for a while, and as I have said O'Neill's (especially this season) usually need the run. He then won next time out beating Phidippides. Phidippides is held in high regard by Evan Williams and was a 140 rated hurdler, yet Rock Noir brushed him aside with ease, winning in a time only about 3 and half seconds slower than the Haldon Gold Cup (and he was carrying 8lbs more than the winner). He then ran a shocking race at Bangor, stopping quickly next time out. However, that was only 8 days after his win at Exeter, and being a headstrong type (fitted with a cross noseband these days), it could be that he takes more out of himself in races than we think).

His most impressive win then came after a nice break to freshen up, when absolutely bolting up at Warwick in a decent time. He beat two 140 rated hurdlers (Keki Buku and Qozak) giving them 7lbs by 7 lengths in what RP described as a 'canter', if that form is taken anywhere close to literally, then it's one of the best runs by a novice so far this season. There are also reasons why he can improve more. Firstly his jumping is going from strength to strength (very good after he warmed up at Warwick) after being poor in his first run. Also being a french import, it may be he's only starting to acclimatise after coming over from france, often horses coming over from France do take a while to settle.

Some people may worry about this being his target (also priced up in the new Jewsons) but with Bellvano flopping for JP yesterday, and both him and O'Neill having no other obvious contender (GMOOH?) he will hopefully be targeted at the race. Also if he was being aimed at the 2.5 miler at the festival, I don't see why they would not run him a day later in the Dipper and not Sway? Hopefully from here he will go to the Kingmaker back at the same C+D he was so imperious at same time, before heading to the Arkle. This would fit in nicely to his schedule, giving him a 5 week break either side of the race. At the 50/1+ on Betfair he has to be of interest.

Also I would not write off Medermit yet. He jumped and travelled much better in the Dipper, and if they dropped him back to two miles it wouldn't worry me as he's shown a strong run 2 miles is right up his street. However, he is nowhere near a certain runner so can't be advised as a bet yet.

Horses to keep an eye on big prices


. Rock Noir
. Realt Dubh
. Muirhead
. Medermit

Taken from my new blog...

cheltenhamfestival2011.blogspot.com

GL EC

You forget to mention that Ghizao has form tied in with General Miller who won the Aintree Novice Hurdle. You need to remember Ghizao is improving all the time. Wally!

Good write up EC ignore Mayweather

^ well said...

EC, nice write up. Thats a very compelling argument you make for Rock Noir, and its not a strong Arkle this year, so he wouldn't be a surprise winner for me.

It's almost funny how so many people have written off Ghizao on his hurdles rating. We can excuse the fact Medermit can't jump at 2m pace cos he was a high rated hurdler. He wasn't actually very fluent over 2m 5f he just has an engine. Rock Noir is allowed two poor runs but a half fit Ghizao gets slaughtered for losing fto. We take out Realt Dubh's fto record to make our argument but we want the favourite beat so we'll rip his fto run to pieces.

Let's not bother watching how the horses jump let's just look at Ghizao's hurdles rating while it was choking in most races and had an op in the summer.

Why are Nicholls and Pipe not trying to find another Arkle hope ? I wonder ? They have horses with a high hurdles rating, funny isn't it why this Johnson/Stewart owned horse has no opposition from two huge yards with horses like Royal Charm, Ronaldo Des Mottes, Notus De La Tour. Surely their owners would want to take on this lowly rated hurdler and have a far better chance than Ghizao.

It doesn't add up unless Ghizao is very very smart and no novice in Nicholls yard can live with it so he has to work with Master Minded. Maybe that's why they aren't rushing to run anything else in the Arkle.

Jumping is what wins you an Arkle,not your hurdling rating,have always said that.Mind you it would be well handy to have a good hurdling rating AND be able to jump,step forward Finians Rainbow.

Hussard I may have been a bit quick to write off Ghizao, but i still feel there are plenty of legitimate reasons to take him on.

Ground? Murphy said the ground in November was very important to him - will he get it that soft in march?
Form? He's beaten Captain Chris twice, who first time 'gurgled' all the way through the race and had a breathing op after so was clearly thought no to be at his best, then next time the ground was even softer than he cared for. He also beat Loosen My Load who connections say need much further (3/3 over further than 2 miles over fences and 0/2 otherwise)

Also with regards to some of your point, I find it very far fetched to say Pipe isn't running some of his horses over fences owned by other people, just because of his other owners has a half share in another horse in another stable. Don't think the owners would be too impressed with that. And anyway if that's the case why haven't NDLT and RDM been seen over hurdles this year? Also Nicholls has always stated Royal Charm is better over further.

With regards to Ghizao working with Master Minded, horses work partners aren't always everything. Paul Nicholls reported That'll do boy worked with Kauto Star before his first win on his betfair article, yet he has shown nothing in his 3 novice hurdle starts.

Ghizao is obviously a smart horse and a better chaser than hurdler, but at the moment the fact he's favourite just shows what a poor race it is and I believe there a horses that have a similar chance that are much bigger prices.

EC

Gut feeling at this stage is if you have both Ghizao and FR,you have the winner.But its still early days!!

Ghizao has a whiff of Tatenen about him.

Form that doesn't stand up in hindsight.

This aint the Triumph thread Howdi

This too is my favourite race of the meeting and i'm firmly in the Ghizao. Regarding his first time out blip, it must be known that Kilmurray is highly highly thought of by DeBromhead (ahead of Loosen My Load) and was sold to Tizzards for a kings randsom for owners who were looking for a horse for the big days. Thus far Ghizao's form has been rock solid and he looks to my eye the only real natural jumper at speed that will run to a mark in upto 160's over hurdles. I agree that Mikael D'haguenet could turn up in the arkle and could be the real danger.

Clearly jumping fences has made a man of Ghizao coupled with his wind op its fair to say he's a vastly improved and superior horse for fences. I'm never one for jumping on a Nicholls arkle fav, as usually there form amounts to sweet FA but this guy has the form in the book and is underestimated by the market imo