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like one today lads MR UDAGWA 8.20 WOL. being out of a red ransom
mare he should love this fast surface . he only has the fav espero to beat which i suspect will want a bit easier surface than this. just to be safe im on e/w at 7/2 with billy mountains. theres only 9 left in the race.any thoughts. |
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Hi TLP,
Bahamian Bounty 1-52 since 2005 at W over 8 and 9f. They do well at 7f, but 8.5 seems beyond them. |
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most b.bs want cut in the ground phs which will account for the bad
record at wolver however as i pointed out the red ransom factor in the pedigree should help it handle this course . thanks for the input much appreciated. |
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and yours too. I was going to lay it (before the fav came out) but now you've said that, I won't.
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ah well no harm done espero handled the track a wee bit better
than i expected and phs you were spot on about the distance i reckon he would have won at a mile. ill be having a couple of quid on striking spirit in the ayr gold cup today at 33s i reckon this one has not been off a yard since it won at york and will bounce off this fast ground its anyones guess what side will be favoured. |
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most b.bs want cut in the ground phs which will account for the bad
record at wolver however as i pointed out the red ransom factor in the pedigree should help it handle this course !!!! you seem to treat a horse's racing characteristics like a childish jigsaw. way too simplistic. |
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gg if you have anything constructive were all ears.
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Had a quick look through the maidens at Newbury today :)
Both short price favourites are obvious picks but hold no appeal in terms of value imo. Thought Pomeroy was a big price in the 1st div. The dam is a half sister to Kyllachy so there's plenty of speed in that side of the pedigree and Green Desert as the sire should add plenty of class and speed. Maybe like to see some money with this stable but a nice pedigree imo. Other division I thought I'd go against my usual rule of not backing Stoute's first time out horses. Lay Claim looks like a miler later on in his career but is bred to be a good two year old as well and this 7f trip is the right place to start as an introduction, I don't think he needs to be fully primed to go close and expect him to run well although I doubt he'll be a top class horse ever. Anyone had a look? |
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lay: i have two useful things to say. whether you regard them as constructive is up to you.
1. you have to stop cut and pasting supposed pedigree characteristics to analyse racing characteristics. 2. we are not "were" |
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You can both start using capitalis if you wish :)
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ben lay claim should love the fast ground but no real feel for the race myself
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Been absolutely done there :(
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You certainly were
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I know you have to look after debutants and all that but if you're in the race surely you have to try and win it. Unlucky Ben.
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Unlucky, but well thought out ben.
When you say bred to be a good 2yo, what does that mean please ? And how do you identify it. |
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Yeah I guess that's why I have the rule of not backing Stoute's first time out!
Another rule is don't back Dascombe maidens unless the money's down because that stable's pretty good at judging a horse's ability before getting on a racecourse. Lessons learnt I guess... |
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PHS, I just looked at his siblings and you see they have quite extensive two year old campaigns. Weald Park was a good two year old for Hannon last year running 6 times at 2 and Fantasic View was second in the RP trophy running 5 times at 2. That usually indicates they are quite forward. Also interesting that neither trained on.
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Thanks
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20:50 Wol
Saint Thomas (currently 22) looks interesting. By Alhaarth out of a Sam that has got 2yo winners at both sprint distances (inc Listed placed) and 8f. Tailed off LTO, but ran ok when beaten 3L in third FTO. Stoute has a Bahamian Bounty (see last nights post) 2yo that was beaten a long way FTO, but is trading at 3.3. I may lay. The form of Shabak Hom looks quite good, finishing only2.5L behind Shaayeq, who subseq finished only 2.75L behind the smart Ameer at Nby yesterday. |
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Dam not Sam. Doh!
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Evening PHS, just had a flick through the race. Firstly don't think I've ever seen such a poorly bred horse in training with Stoute, he will improve on his last run but I couldn't back him! Not a massive fan of the MJ horse either. Your selection is interesting and you make a good case, on pedigree I would have thought he'd have more speed though although the dam's sister started out over a mile and then dropped down. The Simcock horse ran well at Epsom and should be suited by the track and Miss Starlight ame from a decentish Newmarket maiden, shaping like the trip would suit. Her pedigree is hard to read though. If I was picking one it would be the Shabak Hom although don't think I'll play and think your pick looks a fair value call.
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phs the only one who i think is guaranteed to handle this ground is
exemplary the next 4 in the betting will probably need cut in the ground. |
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Interesting, think Exemplary might be too slow for this trip. How come you don't think Shabak Hom will handle the surface?
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Phew ! Thought I was done there. Possibly proves the 8.5f BB theory.
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I automatically dismissed the winner, cos Trade Fair been so disappointing. Maybe he'll do better on AW !
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Nice one PHS, I was tempted to throw a lay in. Bit annoyed didn't plump for Miss Starlight, had my post typed out to favour her then I saw the purchase price and it put me off, guess buyers couldn't work out her pedigree either! The dam won at two was all the RP said.
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Ta Ben. Good working these out with you and LP on here.
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Just found Miss Starlight's dam's siblings, their dam is Reamur if you want to take a look. All stayers! She could be an OK handicapper if handled carefully.
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well done phs .
ben the damsire of shabak horn is mr prospector which almost always need cut in the ground . exemplary was given a shocker by fairley but i agree he will need farther . the stoute horse i am 100per cent sure needs soft ground and thats what cost it the race close home. |
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... but anyone else feel free to join in.
Incidentally, I had 25's up for Saint Thomas, it went 25, but not mine. I then went 29 IR for first 30 secs as thought it may be outpaced, then cancelled when unmatched (no pics here btw). |
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had a small interest bet on smooth as silk in the last .
anyone else on anything. |
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Not really my sort of race tbh, Bramalea dropping in class is interesting I guess..
Lots of non stayers though I think. |
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Lol, easy :)
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well done ben .
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Cheers, didn't back it though!
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Pon 2:30
Is Racy really a certainty ? The dam side is excellent, being out of a Group 1 sprinter, but the form of it's first time out 2nd doesn't look that good to me. If you look at the FTO stats for Mediciean over 5f (admittedly not a large sample), they are very good, so imo it should have been up to winning an easy maiden FTO and from the Stoute stable. Also has to cope with the step up in trip and GF ground. The oppo aint great, but maybe Ghost's form is better than it looks, as it surely has raced on ground which would be a disadvantage. The form of it's 3rd in the Wdr mdn has worked out well, with the winner rated 100. Have I gone completey**ers on this ? |
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I don't really have a betting opinion on the race tbh. Ghost has had a break of 60 days which is a bit of a negative for me. His Newmarket maiden was decent though and if he's at the top of his game might be able to dictate from the front. I wasn't aware of the Medicean first time out stat, personally I'd say it will improve because at the very least Moore will be a bit more serious with it in the finish :)
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Ta ben
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phs i never trust mediceans they flatter to decieve all to often .
classic examples are bankable and cesare. |
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well lads im off to longchamp later on .
ben /phs any thoughts about the arc meeting . i know its not a popular choice but i cant see past fame and glory. i also like askar tau in the cadran. |