Bloodstock & Breeding
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I wonder if anyone can point me to where I can do some reading or research on the influence of sires re preferenced for going? Is there a rough guide to what influences sires have in general, ie distance, temperament?
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Going - don't know
Temperament - completely subjective. You have no choice but to form your own opinions. Do not necessarily accept the racing community dogma. |
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This is one of the biggets myths in racing. You hear commentators talk rubbish about specific sires having an influence over ground preference. Never heard such rubbish.
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OK. Just I read that Double Trigger has a big influence for horses liking soft ground. I wondered if that was true or if other sires had similar effect. However, I'll accept what you say, thanks
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redal,
In regards to Double Trigger, his strike rate as a NH sire doesn't vary greatly on different going. In fact his best strike rate is on Good to Firm. I am afraid I couldn't disagree more strongly with $$$ concerning going preferences for certain blood, or family, lines, including sires. Statistically speaking there certainly is clear influences. |
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Cheers equiname. Do you know of any published material?
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Sorry, equimine
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redal,
I am keen not to be thought of as spamming, by anyone (including yourself). I am a partner in an equine services business that does provide data analysis of, amongst other things, though primarily, breeding statistics. It can be relatively basic, or extremely detailed. It is additionally, not available for free. If you would like a basic sample sent then drop me an email to chrisb@equimine.co.uk, with a sire name and I will send by the end of the week. |
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redal where did you read double triggers wanted soft
the opposite is true imo |
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the post at 10.24 defies belief
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I was reading a blog the other day and someone fancied a DT bumper runner last week because it was on heavy ground. It duly won. It surprised me which is why I was wanting to find out more. Thanks for your help guys
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It made me think I do need to study sire influence more. So I thought I'd try on here to see if there was a good introduction anywhere
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If your talking about Double Pride I'd say it won in spite of the ground so you can rate that performance better than the bare form.
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[b]
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It is certainly dngerous to make categorical statements about ground preference as it is to predict the best distance for the probgeny of a sire but both are inherited to some extent and a few sires can't produce winners on anything except fast ground and therefore become relative failures with the present watering policy. Nashwan is one of the best examples.
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And Singspiel!
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But Singspiel is doing very well, especially on the AW.
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Have a look at www.b2yor.co.uk.
Got a lot of 2yr old sire stats that you can use.Either way the whole site is v.good |
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Interesting site thanks
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I printed out stats on hundreds of sires about ten years ago. There are going preferences, sometimes not as pronounced as people think. From memory Green Desert offsping like fast going (and other Danzig sires). Sharpo liked soft.
In the 1990s I waited more than a month until I found an offspring of a certain sire running on heavy. The horse had terrible form (Don't Cry was its name I think). I backed it at 66/1 each way, and it came fourth, getting up in the last yards. Four places paid. You need to also know the distance preferences. Then you must consider the influence / likely preferences of the damsire. When going and distance preference stars align in the heavens you are in business. |
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KAYF TARA
PRESENTING SIR HARRY LEWIS FLEMENSFIRTH THE BEST SIRES |
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This site has some good stats:
http://www.drawbias.com/sirestats.html |
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Thanks that's very useful
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Interesting site
A few good trends such as Singspeil but mostly suggests that deeper individual study of Dam/Damsire needed |
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$$$ 26 Jan 10:24 This is one of the biggets myths in racing. You hear commentators talk rubbish about specific sires having an influence over ground preference. Never heard such rubbish. ? |
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tend to agree with jmc.
the assumption that something as multi faceted as a "going preference" can be handed down from one side of a pedigree is very naive. |
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Is it? It could be that going preference is at least partly due to anatomical differences and they are certainly heritable. Of course it won't have high enough heritability to allow us to put a line through a horse purely on the basis of going but it might help. Racing ability isn't easy to predict from pedigree either but we keep trying. I was surprised to see Royal Applause listed as having no bias either way as my stats suggest they are better on fast ground. Percentage wins may not tell the whole story of course.
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sage: i agree the answer lies there somewhere but there are so many different facets to "going preference" that generalisation is difficult. visible traits (eg hair colour/ parrot mouth) are fairly straightforward but i think beyond that we are guessing
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You two know much more than me about this. Surely both parents will give traits to their progeny and, for example, the way it moves might influence going preference?
Iwas reading something recently where they were saying that some sires have 2yos that are less likely to win first time out such as Captain Rio. Are we over analysing these things and influences? |
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Remember being told long time ago that Mr Prospector had small feet as did a lot of the offspring and therefore had difficulty with soft ground.
But ofcourse the sire was class and the offspring could win thru that class. This possibly would slightly distort any going stats and then it may be necessary to consider stats based on class of race and quality of opposition in relation to going |
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.a whole host of physical and other characteristics determine a horses's going preference. if it were as simple as small feet than fair enough looking at the sire woul be ok but even in doing that you have missed 50% of the picture.
saying stallion x is a strong influence for chestnut is ok- it is one straightforward gene. the same is not true of more subtle characteristics. but i am not saying that much of the answer is in the genes - although some no doubt in upbringing. |
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Want to know if a Sire can have an impact on ground pref - check out Storm Cat's progeny on soft/heavy.
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Polpo 28 Apr 22:24 Want to know if a Sire can have an impact on ground pref - check out Storm Cat's progeny on soft/heavy. Prix de la Salamandre (Group 1) (Colts & Fillies) (2yo) 7f Very Soft 1 4 Giant's Causeway (USA) 3/5J :P Only messing agree totally that was more the exception than rule |
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redal, you are right that the dam provides an equal number of genes, but it is much harder to get enough data from may be 4 offspring compared to 400 from the sire. The dam sire is certainly important though. There is a mass of data on many of those and Riverman/Irish River mares for example have a huge influence on top class pedigrees and on going preference.
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sage: by admitting that you only get 50% of the picture looking at sire influences i would have thought you laid yourself wide open as a betting man by taking such info into account.
the world and his dog seem to take a view in sire going prefernces so it will be in the market price. the same cannot be said for a dam side preference so this may not be in the price. betting with only sire side info seems to me like going into battle with one eye. those who study pedigrees will know more than you and those who know the horse at home may know a great deal more about6 his ground preference. as to stallions not going on soft or heavy - be very careful about statistical validity. how many races get run on such ground descriptions these days. |
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GG
Your point about upbringing also clouds the issue in some ways. I don't mean your point which I accept but the nature/nurture principle means that progeny whose sires have an apparently late developing influence are more likely to be handled to be a back end of the year 2yo even if they are quite precocious. Similarly, Sharpo progeny would be run on softer ground because it is expected that's what they want. So reputation exaggerates the possible influence? |
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The Sporting Life Weekender October 2, 1993
Sires for soft ground, Nick Mordin Top 20 sires on soft and heavy (40+ runs to qualify) Sadler's Wells 24.5 Lomond 22.2 Kampala 18.8 Kris 18.8 Ardross 18.6 Glenstal 18.1 Efisio 17.8 Ile De Bourbon 17.1 Martinmas 17.0 Sharpo 16.6 Shirley Heights 16.0 Shareef Dancer 15.9 Taufan 15.6 Rainbow Quest 15.6 Glint Of Gold 15.5 Riverman 15.5 Tate Gallery 14.6 Bold Owl 14.6 Kings Lake 14.1 Prince Sabo 14.0 Top 20 sires on good and better (100+ runs to qualify) Danzig 26.0 Timeless Moment 23.8 Darshaan 22.5 Mr Prospector 21.3 El Gran Senor 21.1 Nureyev 20.8 Nijinsky 20.5 Sadler's Wells 20.1 Green Desert 20.1 Northern Dancer 20.0 M Double M 19.9 Diesis 19.3 Silver Hawk 19.2 Lear Fan 19.0 Dancing Brave 19.0 Blushing Groom 18.6 Topsider 18.6 Sovereign Dancer 18.5 Storm Bird 18.0 Chief's Crown 18.0 He noted that Bold Owl, Glenstal, Kings Lake, Martinmas, Sharpo, Taufan win no more than 10% on good or better but produce a high percentage when the going gets soft. Sadler's Wells produced a high percentage on both good / faster and on soft / slower. That article is more than fifteen years old. I see that Danzig and his sons Green Desert, Chief's Crown are in the good ground list. One or two extra winners on soft would greatly change the percentages. |
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a good few blips on those charts .imo.
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Read your comments re Kris o another thread. Interesting, would you care to expand on the blips?
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hi redal the blips imo are glint of gold shirley heights and prince sabo all are predominantly fast ground sires.
and mr prospector el gran senor nureyev and silver hawk are all predominantly soft ground sires although there is always the exception. |