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As for Timeform, if you only use their ratings , how do you explain how Pennekamp beat Celtic Swing ? Time will tell and after the Guineas we can probably have a good laugh at my expense.
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Gees i seem to be repeating myself.
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Push, form can be argued every which way for hours on end. But I will sum up my thoughts by merely saying that there are few horses going to HQ on May 1st that have already shown high/top level form. Some of those horses are shorter prices and some of the others at shorter prices have nothing like the form of HOF. Trainers and pedigrees do not win races, horses do.
Personally I cannot see past SNA, and if the final 200yds becomes a neck and neck race between him and HOF my loyalties will be very much divided! |
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Will we all be going to Newmarket in May ?
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I'll be there Dom, will you Push?
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SnS,
I have briefly looked at HOFs pedigree. I think that it is at this stage quite difficult to quantify with any degree of confidence. We only have two progeny from the first dam, one good the other pretty poor. So at this point I would just view her as a neutral element. The second dam, Dayville, firstly might suggest some stamina limitations. However, HOF appears to have dispelled these. From a sample size of 84 (just short of the ideal minimum of 100) she returns (as a dam) an average rating of 65 with an Impact Value of 0.99 (an IV of 1.00 is par/average). Mind Games has to my mind proved himself to be a below average dam sire. His Impact Value is 0.93, from a sample size of 484 averaging 59.5. He suggests a mile to 9 furlongs would be HOFs maximum trip. Mind Games highest rated, as a dam sire, prior to HOF; was 108. Firebreak is of course difficult to assess. We only have two year old runnings obviously. The other elements of HOFs pedigree suggest there should be no problems concerning not training on, but do not expect significant improvement. In his only season to date Firebreak averaged 59.5 giving an Impact Value of 0.92 which for a first season sire is pretty good (Shamardal averaged 69.5 on my ratings). The sample size was 81; obviously HOFs rating of 115 was his highest. The ill fated Charnwood Forest averaged 58.55 with an IV of 0.93 from a sample size of over 2000. Again trip of a mile to nine furlongs. All in all the suggestion is that the pedigree does not have the class for the Guineas, and that HOF has already outrun his pedigree. My view is he might make the prize money staying on past the usual non staying runners. Having said that if I was Bearstone I would be using HOFs pedigree to market Firebreak. Point out how it is comprised largely of average, or slightly below average elements, but HOF is well above average. Conclusion, Firebreak is responsible for the ability shown by HOF. I am not as such saying this is definitely the case, HOF may well just be a freak case, but I certainly believe Bearstone are missing a trick. |
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Your observations are very interesting E.co.uk .I wouldn't argue with any of them.Can I ask you a question ?If Firebreak has shown the ability to up grade the moderate mares that have been sent to him so far,could we not assume given better bred mares (with the right bloodlines and confirmation),FB could well sire a horse even better than HOF ?For me FB has punched above his weight both on the track and in the breeding shed.But because he isn't fashionable the good mares wil not arrive at Bearstone.As you point out,they are missing a golden opportunity to promote this stallion......oh well,several of us on this forum,have flown the flag for him,but what else can you do ?
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Incidentally,I paid less for my nomination to him this year than I did before he bred two black type winners from a handful of runners.Strange.
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SnS, no i will not be going to the Guineas meeting, i have been to all the other Newmarket meetings in my time, but do not enjoy the traveling these days. I went to last years Craven meeting, but it was freezing, Champions Day is my favourite at Newmarket. I hope the weather improves for your trip to HQ. :)
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My friend has an unraced Mind Games filly , i suggested he send her to Firebreak, it not only turns out he is sending her to Firebreak but he is also the vet for the Stud where Firebreak is standing. Talk about teaching yoor Grandmother to suck eggs.
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dominion,
Your comments regarding the "fee" do seem a bit odd, even allowing for a general trend towards lower, still unrealistic, fees. Without looking at each mare individually I could not say that Firebreak does upgrade his mares. We have developed a mare rating system, but as it can by its very nature only include one new addition per annum it is far from foolproof. Apart from HOF's dam there are only 18 others I believe. Will try and look at them at some point in the next week or so. |
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Dont forget Electric Feel the filly FB, sired out of a MGs mare, she won the Listed Radley Stakes at Newbury.
I have just got the brochure from Bearstone Stud. Firebreak " Group 1 Champion Miler - Group 1 Sire ". |
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Don't worry Push no one has forgotten.Give us some credit.
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I have looked at FB's mares(excluding HOF's).
In summary their average rating is 62.42, with an Impact Value of 1.08. This covers from 1996 to 2009. I will be interested to see the views of upgrading his mares or not? |
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Eqimine.co.uk,All of your stats do make for interesting reading,meanwhile back in the real world most of us breeders just look at a stallion, we see if they are a good sort if they look the sort to get a winner from our mares and then look at the stud fee.
With some luck it does work, both in the sale ring and later on the racecourse. As for Firebreak from what we have seen so far from only one crop to race I think he has upgraded HOF dam as she has had no winners at all before HOF he has gone beyond anything in his pedigree. All the dosage, stamina index stats I for one just bin them as imo they are just stats and are no use at all in the real world,only for anoraks to spout off,they are animals and you cant really put stats on them! |
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PD,
I totally agree with you about Dosage & Stamina Indices. They are selective in respect of Dosage to ridiculous extremes, and SI only deals with winners of races not the quality of the performances. That is why we deal in the real world of business, which is where a breeder trades, and aim to eliminate luck as far as possible. |
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Equimine.co.uk,You will always need a touch of luck when breeding horses,even with a PHD in TB breeding you can spend days weeks researching all the pros and cons of a mares pedigree and select the best possible stallion,only to see it flop on the racecourse,it really is like that,all you need to see this is a trip to HITS at tatts,
You have asked for opionions on if Firebreak upgrades his mares from the evidence of your results of analyising his mares. But as you don't explain what your ratings mean that is a hard conclusion to draw. |
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Equimine, please disregard the posts by Prima Donna. I have recently come to understand that my fool of a husband has been having a game with me and posting as Prima Donna.
It is interesting what you say about FB, though I am a little confused as to whether you are saying FB upgrades his mares in general? I would venture that he appears to, though I wonder what impact he has on stamina? I am surprised that they seem to want a trip, though perhaps that could be explained by being used to inject 'cheap speed' onto low grade staying mares? Perhaps he may be more like Machiavellian who didn't really get any horses over a specific distance. |
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I hope he is not one of those horses who has a good first season with limited books then people send him mares and he completely flops and then gets sold off
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SnS,
I think it is very difficult to have a clear view concerning Firebreak. The mares he has covered to date are clearly, in my opinion, a little above average for their market to date. A bit like saying that X horse is a good 0-70 handicapper,wins consistently in that grade but obviously not capable of much better. Or would they produce above average progeny if covered by better stallions. I could tell from checking their dam sire records, but I doubt anybody on this thread is willing to pay! If PD really is your husband and he has questions tell him to check out the website, I would imagine you can guess the address. |
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Equimine, That is interesting re mares good for their level, but almost 'stuck' there. I would imagine that those mares would not go to better stallions purely due to commercial factors. Unless of course Firebreak managed to get them a Gr 1 winner! ;-)
As for your last line, Yes PD really is my husband, but I will not be encouraging him to look at your site as he will no longer be posting on here. However I will look at it myself and perhaps give him my thoughts on it! |
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I am delighted to report that my colt has done really well since I last saw him (Jan 28th).Quiet as a lamb off the gallop,very professional on it.Along with a multitude of others I will make the initial entry for the SuperSprint at Newbury.With respect to Equimine's observations earlier,may I add that,one thing Firebreak definitely does do is stamp his stock.My personal conclusion based on this fact is that,breeders have therefore a far greater chance of producing a horse with ability.Yesterday was a very good day - despite Primagate.
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That is good to hear Dom. Will he be out early?
I would agree about FB stamping his stock. I am going to closely watch his sales horses this year to see if the Buyers are willing to accept a smallish FB as 'thats what he gets'. If they do, I have a mare for him next year that I would normally choose a bulky horse for, but if the FB's are accepted as a type then she would suit him well otherwise. Regarding 'Primagate' Dom I am going to carefuly re-read his posts on this thread and use them as evidence! I may even send his beloved mare to FB next season as punishment.................:-) |
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If FB is transferred to Ireland next year(and I don't think you'll get fancy prices against it) it will be even easier to send a mare to him.The boy won't be out early,early.Two runs prior to Newbury hopefully.I am ever the optomist !!!
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More entries this year for big 2 year old races than last year at this stage. R Hannon filly catches my eye, and Mr Eddery has another firebreak to run, fingers crossed another HOF
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Looking forward to Saturday! May see you by the Winners Dom ;-)
I see that HOF's sister has been named and entered in the Two Year Old Trophy. Not with Saeed though. Electric Feel in the Coronation so Marco Botti must feel she is of that class and would hope to have trained on. YFBW, I have recently been to England and visited my Misu Bond foal. She has improved greatly and I am very happy with her. She is strong, square and a typical Misu. He certainly stamps them, she is the same as the foals I saw at the sales. How is your colt getting on? |
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Hi slick, we have our Misu Bond Colt at home and we are very pleased with him. I will try and get a good picture for you and upload to website. Misu Bond has stamped him also not as leggy and much stronger looking than her previous foals.
We have a filly by Misu Bond too and a yearling who is a real looker so fingers crossed he does well. We had our first sad event since starting 4 years ago Magical Music lost her Firebreak foal during labour :( thankfully she looks to have made a full recovery and is due to see Firebreak very soon |
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YBFW,I am sorry to hear that you lost your Firebreak foal. It is so disappointing to lose them so late on when you have been looking forward to having them. Dare I ask if it was a colt or a filly? I hope the mare gets in foal quickly for you.
I would be very interested to see updated photos of your Misu foal, he was bigger than my filly at birth so he should be really nice now. I can see every reason for Misu to do well, his foals are so much like the Danehill Dancer's. He is def a stallion that people should not dismiss too quickly. |
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It was a colt :( Bit of a blow as our most commercial horse too.
Our yearling Misu Bond is a little small but growing all the time I will get an updated picture of him too. The foal is going to be a nice size. He gallops around the field like he owns the place really nice mover, team at Hedgeholme also commented on this. The same mare is back in foal to him. We have everything crossed Dandy Nichols does the biz with his half brother 2 year old. |
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ff
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I have to say the run of Hearts Of Fire was extremely disappointing.The pre race vibes were correct.I would also have to say,I wasn't knocked out by his appearance beforehand.Didn't carry much condition,smallish,nothing of any note about him.The future does not look overly bright.
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What he did last year was incredible and he's a real credit to his sire, remember no horse has won the Guineas after the Brocklesby for over a 100 years so there's no shame in that. Firebreak just needs a few more like that, let's hope we see a couple come through this year.
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Unlikely to see another HOF emerge from his two yr olds (apart from my own,of course)because he will have so few two yr olds (11 fillies,7 colts).I doubt very much that he has trained on.He looked like a boy against men.
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Does he really only have 18 two year olds this year!?
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Well he might not have trained on, him and St N A both! However he must get the benefit as Dad was always little and light and he was competitive over a very long period so this fella could still come good again.
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Ben - Yes.
PM- I hope you are right.Do you know that none of his three yr olds have won yet ? |
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First 3 year old winner today, class 3 so not too bad a race to get off mark with 3 year olds.
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The first glimmer of light !Full sister to HOF hopefully runs this week too.
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i hope so my mare was covered end of April....
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My own mare has not been able to get in foal to Firebreak - problem with cyst apparently.If does not click this time (third visit)she will have to go empty this year.Disappointing,as my two yr old by Fb is doing very well - will run before the month is out.Hope your mare tests in foal YBFW.
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