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SnS , do you want to breed an Oaks winner ? During my limited research looking at all the Epsom Oaks winners since 1992, they all have one thing in common on the dams side of their pedigrees .
See if you can spot what is the common link. |
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I think you will find it was the Hong Kong mile
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Indeed it was , i stand corrected. Welcome back PD . :)
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SnS, i think you have started a gamble on HOF, all the 40-1 has gone , and some firms are as short as 20-1.
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I am only questioning " very rare" Push.I am sure given time my list can be extended.The fact that FB finished fifth in the French Guineas would not put me off backing HOF in the English version.As for his chances I agree with Mrs SnS and Prima Donna;if he was trained by a more fashionable stable O'brien,Bolger etc he would be half the odds.When in actual fact he is in the best possible hands where he is.You don't train a13k yearling to win a Group 1,if you don't know what you're doing.
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Only 9 weeks to go to find out.
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If you backed him at 40's,I am sure you will be able to trade out,and have a bet to nothing before May.Good Luck.
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Yes i am on at 40-1, due mainly to SnS making such a convincing case for him and her undying enthusiasm . ( I am sure she must have shares in him )
Good luck to you :) But Prima Donna knows who i will be cheering for come Guineas day. |
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Indeed I do Push,you will hear me laughing from the stands when both you and Ben10 burst into tears when SNA thrashes the pants off the FRAGILE one!HA HA.but good luck!
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I am on SNA at 20-1 for the Derby , if he wins the Guineas he will be 5-4 or shorter , so bring it on ;)
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Yes Push, FB was fourth in the French Gns (demoted to sixth for Dettori's use of the whip) but I would counter that FB did not truly ever stay the mile and certainly not early in his 3yo campaign. He ran so close in mile races and indeed finally won the HK mile, on class, guts and determination.
FB progeny have surprised my in their seeming preference for greater distance at 2yo than their sire ever really needed. However, despite your thoughts on a sire getting something better than himself, it is clear that at the very least FB has improved the mare and brought out the class from further back in the pedigree. Dom's point re Pat Eddery is a good one. I would say that it will do HOF's chances this season no harm whatsoever to be the stable star. He will be aimed at good races without fear of avoiding other owners from the same stable. Personally I feel sure that FB would have had more 'acceptable/fashionable' form had he stayed with Andrew Balding. They would have gone down a more traditional route I know. Godolphin were very keen on the chances of Meshaheer at that stage and FB was to avoid him if at all possible. He was used extensively at home for testing other horses and was given a run if nothing more acceptable was able to run. His targets were often last minutue and fitted around higher profile horses rather than forming a coherent campaign or finding a most suitable distance for him. Push unfortunatly I don't have shares in HOF, though I was almost tempted when I saw him on the sydincate page originally. I thought he was so like his sire. There are many stories of the ones that got away though! Including HOF's sire, who I looked at in Highflyer as a yearling in 2000. Perhaps the change in price is people starting to look more seriously for value in a race dominated by SNA and to a lesser extent Steinbeck. It is not my money that has altered it though, I took a better price than 40-1 a little while ago ;-) |
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I read your comment about HOF going straight to the Guineas, well thats a step in the right direction, as for Godolphin do you know which horses they intend to aim at the 2000 Guineas ? Given the close form with HOF, they would be wise to train Vale of York for the race.
Known Fact won the 2000 Guineas in 1980, 30 years later in 2010 can HOF be the first from that sire line to regain the title ? Now theres a thought :D |
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Godolphin seem to fancy Al Zir for the Guineas (even though he would appear to have little chance of reversing the RPT form with St Nicholas Abbey). Poet's Voice is another possible Guineas runner for the Boys in Blue.
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Push - allow me to be a total anorak and say that Firebreak also has two strains of Tudor Minstrel in his pedigree (1947 2000gns winner).As you know this is the Hyperion line.A horse barely 15 1.5 hands high, with a totally indifferent disposition - only coming alive on the race track.Mrs SnS will know the point I am trying to make here.
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dominion at this rate i am going to have to go into the attic and get my bloodstock books out to do a refresher course. :)
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Dom ;-)
Push, you could look at all the books you wish, but you still wouldn't get Doms point. If it isn't obv now it won't be (unless you read through all of this thread of course) :-) |
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The comparison to HOF i would guess.
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Push, I read it more as an indication to FB's own character.
The points Dom is drawing to our attention about Tudor Minstrel are his diminutive size, his laidback temp and his tough and genuine nature on the track. All of which would neatly sum up FB (and his stock). HOF has two lines to this horse,so double his influence, and that horse was GNS winner. |
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In actual fact HOF has 3 lines to TM
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Mrs SnS,
I have read recent comments with fascination. What do you believe are the chances of TM influencing Firebreak progeny, and why should you double, or treble, those chances due to the two/three lines in the pedigree? |
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Why do i feel as though I am stepping into an elephant trap here? But here goes...........
Equimine, I made no 'point' about Tudor Minstrel other than to explain the comment made by Dominion as I saw it. I am not aware anyone has said that HOF's chances in the Gns or his achievements to date are in any way connected to the presence of Tudor Minstrel in whatever postion in the pedigree. However as you are a 'nick man' perhaps you could put forward your theory on the Firebreak/Mind Games cross? ( As I am sure you are aware HOF's third cross to TM comes via Mind Games) |
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SnS,
I am sorry but you are incorrect there. I think "Nicks" are marketing tools only, and without sensible foundation. |
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My appologies if I have misunderstood you Equi. What are your thoughts on HOF's chances in the 2000, within the context of your pedigree analysis?
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If HOF were to win the Guineas he would be the youngest horse to do so since 1992 , when Rodrigo de Triano , a may foal won , since then every winner was born before the 7th of April.
The 2 winners born in April were outstanding horses, Zafonic and Sea the Stars. |
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I have a feeling this maybe a long night ,but here goes.I threw TM's name into the ring because Push mentioned Known Fact being a previous Gns winner present in HOF's pedigree - and therefore,so I thought a positive point,for anyone doubting if he will get the mile.Add in TM and the case is strengthened,not proven,but strengthened.My own FB,brings in another line of Song and ergo another line of TM.I am not saying because of these genetic components,that my fellow is a ready made winner-merely that in terms of what it cost me to produce him,I am giving myself a fighting chance of being successful.For example I could have gone to a far more fashionable sire,at extra cost,and not produced such a good specimen - because the bloodlines are not compatible.
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I see alot of similarities between Mister Baileys and HOF.
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Such as ?
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I will make a list , back soon.
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If you're going up into that attic of yours,make sure you switch the light on.
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1, Only Mr B, and Kings Best did not have a N.Dancer line sires close up in their pedigrees .
2, Mr B and HOF are both out of mares sired by sprinters 3, Mr B, won a GRP 3 race over 7f, followed by a Grp 2 race over 1 mile. HOF won a Grp 3 race over 7f, followed by an Italian Grp 1 over 1 mile. ( Prob = to an English Grp 2 ) Both were trained by up an coming trainers. I expect HOF will start around 16-1 in the betting just like Mr B. Both are sired by dare i say perhaps not the most fashionable sires ( at least not yet ). Both sired by horses that won up to Grp 2 level as 2yos. Hope that is enough. |
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Can I add both going without a prep run ?Also both ridden by Jason Weaver (just joking Mrs SnS !!!).
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Dom, I think I would still prefer Jason Weaver to Paul Eddery!
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HOF won a Grp 3 race over 7f, followed by an Italian Grp 1 over 1 mile. ( Prob = to an English Grp 2 )
Do you really think the form of the race upholds that view? Maybe on a normal running but last year? |
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Vale of York , was beaten in the Royal Lodge Grp 2 , so yes !
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I backed Grand Lodge at 50-1 for that Guineas in the days before Betfair, i hate Jason Weaver :0
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On that reckoning then Push, the BC races are UK Gr2's as well?!
Paul Coles horse was also beaten in a UK Gr 2 by about 1 1/2l, HOF beat him in his Gr1 by 5l and a nk. The form of that Italian race does stand up against more 'credible' pattern races. Refer to my quote from Timeform above. |
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Yes i knew you would come back with that and they probably are.
Donativum, won the BC Juvenile , and never won a good European race, the 2nd horse Westphalia, ran fair races in theFrench Classics, and Johannesburg BC Juvenile , never won another race after that. Also Vale of York , had only won a Listed race before he was 2nd in the Italian Grp 1. |
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Mana Keranjang , beaten 5 lengths, now you know soft ground is always going to make the winning distance extended compared to fast ground.
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Mana Keranjang , beaten 5 lengths, now you know soft ground is always going to make the winning distance extended compared to fast ground.
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Mana Keranjang , beaten 5 lengths, now you know soft ground is always going to make the winning distance extended compared to fast ground.
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