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It will take an almighty shock for it to happen but is it ever wise to bet against Manchester United? The Betfair Contrarian explains why he believes the Red Devils will be celebrating a 20th league title come Sunday tea time...

Shortly after ownership of the Premier League's top spot changed hands in March, I plunged two fingers in my ears as everyone yelled excitedly about Manchester United's impermeability to run-in nerves. Instead, I advised punters to shun instinct and lay them to finish first at 1.64, my ridiculed stance vindicated and trading position strengthened as United spectacularly surrendered an eight-point lead. The turnaround has seen the champions catapulted out to 8.6 to retain, a price which has inspired a change of heart: I anticipate one last title-race twist on the final weekend...

They trail by a thread

Odds of 8.6 are enormous given that Manchester United enter Sunday's games - in which they visit Sunderland and Manchester City host QPR - level on points with their neighbours. The consequence is that three of the nine possible combinations of results would culminate in the trophy being swiped from the Etihad Stadium and paraded around the Stadium of Light instead, with a fourth also having the potential to (both win, but United by an avalanche). Other top European leagues such as Serie A, Ligue 1 and the Eredivisie have seen actual point deficits overhauled on the season's finale over the last decade, so it would be risky to write off an even less visible gap as too steep.

QPR are nightmare opponents

Very few clubs in action on Sunday will rival Manchester City's desperation, rendering it all the more unfortunate that they have been paired with one of those. QPR's terrible away record is a recipe for complacency, and they have pinched points off of six other top-eight teams, while the side entering matchday 38 in 17th have lost only four times in the last 11 campaigns, winning on five of those instances. There also appears to be a touch of destiny about Mark Hughes - who drew 1-1 with Fulham on his last trip to his former employers - being responsible for successor Roberto Mancini's most painful moment, recalling a similar strange situation in 1995 in which Kenny Dalglish was almost derailed by Liverpool while at Blackburn.

Needing to win isn't enough

Another popular theory that Manchester United's recent collapse from 4-2 up against Everton has already contradicted is that when a top team require a victory to reach a specific target, they always find a way to deliver, however unimpressive. On five occasions, the Premier League title tussle has lasted into the final set of fixtures and only twice have both contenders won. The most famous fumble was the double dip suffered by Blackburn and Manchester United in 1994/95, in which leaders Rovers lost to invite a Red Devils recovery, only for the chasers to be held at West Ham. Sir Alex Ferguson won't tolerate a repeat of that shambolic stutter and his side have prevailed on the four final days since in which first place has been at stake.

An eight-goal advantage is not unbreachable

Another scenario that has understandably been dismissed but isn't implausible is that Manchester City overcome QPR yet are still shunted into second by a dramatic goal difference swing. If Mancini's men replicate the one-goal margin of success that they achieved at Loftus Road, Manchester United must win by nine. Unlikely, sure, though they are the sole club in Premier League history to have won that heavily before, have scored five or more three times on their travels this term and face a Sunderland side winless in seven and housing several sympathetic former players. Chelsea smashed eight past a barely interested Wigan to claim the silverware two years ago.

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Tournament History

Originally known as the Tournament Players Championship, this will be the 39th staging of The Players Championship. The event used to be staged in March but was moved to May in 2007. It's universally known as the games 'fifth major' and a top-class field always lines up at Sawgrass.

Venue
TPC Sawgrass, Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida

Course Details
Par 72 -7,215 yards
Stroke Index in 2011 - 72.00

Tournament venue since 1982, the Stadium Course at Sawgrass is yet another Bermuda-grass Pete Dye design that requires an accurate game. Eight of the last 12 winners ranked in the top ten for Greens In Regulation and Sergio Garcia is the only winner in the last seven years to rank outside the top-ten for Scrambling.

The odd big-hitter has obliged but the wily old vet that knows how to plot his way around is just as likely to contend. Fred Funk won here in 2005 and the likes of Paul Goydos, Kenny Perry and David Toms have all come close to winning recently.

TV Coverage
Live on Sky at 6.00pm all four days

Last Five Winners
2011 - K.J Choi -13(playoff)
2010 - Tim Clark -16
2009 - Henrik Stenson -12
2008 -Sergio Garcia -5 (playoff)
2007 - Phil Mickelson -11

Market leaders
The first three in the world rankings occupy the first three places in the betting, with the world's top-ranked player, Rory McIlroy, heading the list. Young Rors has only played here twice and he missed the cut on both occasions. He caused a bit of a stir when he didn't turn up twelve months ago and he'll be trying hard to make up for that but he makes no appeal whatsoever at just 11.5.

Lee Westwood also swerved the event last year and he and Luke Donald both trade at 15.5. Both will feel that this is an event they should have bagged by now - Luke led with a round to go in 2005, as did Westwood in 2010. I can see both contending again and I'd rather either of them over Rory at the prices but this is a strong field and neither wins often enough for my liking.

Players Championship Pointers
Expect a new event winner - in the last 19 years there have been 19 different winners.
Swerve K.J Choi - nobody has ever defended the title.
Now I know why Bubba's not turned up - of the last eight winners, only Phil Mickelson is a major winner.
Third round leaders are worth opposing - the last five have all failed to convert.
Course experience key - Henrik Stenson was playing Sawgrass for just the fourth time when he won but the average number of tournament starts of the last seven winners is 9.57.
Don't be afraid to back an outsider - the list of past winners contains plenty of shock winners. I can't imagine too many picked out the likes of Craig Perks or Fred Funk and although I have fond memories of backing Stephen Ames in 2006, he went off at 170.0.

Selections
I wasn't go to play Phil Mickelson after last week's disappointing effort but I simply can't leave him out of calculations at 25.0, now he's been allocated what could be the favourable draw of afternoon-morning. I have only had a modest wager on Lefty but he's too big to leave out from the get-go.

Louis Oosthuizen was the first player I backed this week and I'm in total agreement with Mike Norman, I just couldn't understand the price either. With just one missed cut appearance at Sawgrass he hardly fits the profile of recent winners but is there anyone in the field that can boast better recent form? He led the Shell Houston Open with a round to go before finishing third. A week later, he lost in a playoff at the Masters to Bubba and the week after that he won in Malaysia. He could be a bit rusty after a few weeks off but I thought he was considerably over-priced at 48.0.

Ben Crane has an impressive bank of course form and he looked over-priced at 80.0, and I'm following Paul Krishnamurty in on Sean O'Hair.

I could have backed a whole host of players quite easily and recent winners Carl Pettersson and Ben Curtis as well as Zach Johnson, all very nearly made the portfolio but my only other picks from the start are Aaron Baddeley and Brian Gay.

Whether I've done the right thing or not I don't know but I've finally bit the bullet and joined Twitter and Bads is my first Twitter-guided wager. With a couple of top-ten finishes in the last three years, he was on the radar anyway, so when he tweeted on Monday that he was excited about seeing his coach, claiming he always get some good work done with him and that his game feels closer than his scores suggest, I thought he was worth risking.

Brian Gay managed to finish in the top-12 for the first time last year on his 12th appearance. He finished 4th in Texas on his penultimate start and at 380.0 there isn't too much downside.

This looks like one of the most open events of the year so far, so stakes are modest from the start and I'll look to get more involved in-running.

Players Championship Selections:
Phil Mickelson @ 25.0
Ben Crane @ 80.0
Sean O'Hair @ 120.0
Aaron Baddeley @ 140.0
Brian Gay @ 380.0

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If a cup double might have dragged Liverpool's woeful league campaign into the realms of respectability, Saturday's defeat now makes the Carling Cup look trivial in the extreme. Fine margins. And even if they are able to claw back the four points on Everton, finishing above their Merseyside rivals should be no more than crumbs of comfort to Kenny Dalglish.

The eventual inquest into Liverpool's pitiful league performance will inevitably begin with their sorry record of just five wins at Anfield all season. The Reds require victory tonight to prevent this from becoming their worst campaign at home since 1948-49.

Dalglish's side have only won one of their previous eight league fixtures at Anfield, four of which ended in defeat. In addition, they have taken just a solitary point from the last 12 available in front of their own fans, scoring only twice in the process.

Admittedly, they boast a very respectable record against Chelsea in recent meetings. Opta point out Liverpool have won five of the last seven league clashes with the Blues, including each of the last three. But that will surely pale into insignificance after the weekend's events. They might have finished on the front foot, but their inability to make any impression for the best part of an hour will be galling.

As for Chelsea, the failure of all three sides directly above them to win at the weekend has given them an outside chance of making a late bid for fourth place. A win at Anfield would see them move to within just two points of Tottenham, and Blackburn's relegation last night should make their final home game against Steve Kean's men considerably easier. As it stands, they are 9.8 to overhaul both Spurs and Newcastle to secure a top-four finish.

Roberto Di Matteo's side are unbeaten in their previous five away trips in all competitions, including visits to Benfica, Arsenal and Barcelona. And the Blues are no strangers to success at Anfield, having won two of their last three clashes there in league and cup.

Over/Under 2.5 goals

This isn't traditionally a high-scoring affair, even if Andy Carroll made sure there would be over 2.5 goals at Wembley. Opta note that the winning side have scored exactly twice in six of the last seven meetings in all competitions, while on only two occasions over the same period have both teams managed to get on the scoresheet. It's currently 2.3 for only one (or neither) team to score tonight.

Elsewhere, each of the previous three league fixtures at Anfield have produced two goals or fewer, two of those being settled by a single strike. As for the visitors, all but two of their last eight Premier League outings on their travels have contained under 2.5 goals, including both of the last two.

Best Bet: Lay Liverpool @ 2.22
Other Recommended Bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.93

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You've got to hand it to Birmingham. In an era when we regularly hear top-flight players bleating about playing twice in a few days or having a fixture backlog due to their own success, it is refreshing to see the Blues in the play-offs at the end of a season where they have played a massive 60 games.

Not only have they had the standard 46 league games to cope with, but Chris Hughton's side have also played six domestic cup matches and a further eight fixtures in the Europa League.

And let's not forget, Birmingham were as low as 14th in the table at the start of 2012. They did climb as high as third in late February but then the sheer amount of football they have played probably took a toll as a run of one win in seven effectively ended any lingering hopes of automatic promotion.

But they come into this first leg against Blackpool unbeaten in nine - while the team that has finished third has done best in recent years, the play-offs have, in the past, been the prey of a side that enters them with the best short-term form.

That Blackpool are undefeated themselves in their last seven makes this, I feel, the tougher of the two semi-finals to call - although with the second leg at the generally intimidating St Andrews, it is advantage the Brum in my book.

Blackpool can, on their day, beat anyone - but they have been found wanting, at times, for consistency. And they do struggle to keep the ball out of the net: of the four play-off contenders, they have the worst defensive record.

Because this is a close call, I am looking at goals as my best bet. Blackpool are very likely to score: they have netted in all of their last 12 home games. Birmingham, meanwhile, have scored more away goals than anyone else in the division this season, 41 in all at an average of 1.78 a game. They have managed at least one goal in each of their last 12 road trips.

Therefore, I suggest looking for both teams to net in this one - and that would then open the door for my second suggestion, which requires one more goal at either end.

Best bet: Back Both teams to Score @ 1.78
Recommended Bet: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91

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For so much of the season, promotion to the Premier League looked like a combined Southampton and West Ham private members club.

Then Reading came along with a run that, in all honesty, would have been pretty unstoppable regardless of what happened at St Mary's and Upton Park. Yet there must be an element of head scratching going on down the East End of London as to how the Hammers have ended up in the play-offs and haven't gone up automatically.

Sam Allardyce's side were in the top two pretty much constantly from early October until mid-March, they have lost only eight games all season and they have what looks, to me at least, the strongest set of players in the division by some distance.

Only 11 home wins may have been a contributory factor, and certainly a run of seven games at the Boleyn without winning from early February to mid-April was probably the clincher in terms of them missing out on a top-two finish.

But they still ended the regular season a whopping 11 points clear of Cardiff, who they now meet in this first leg - and as things stand, I think the Hammers will go all the way and return to the Premier League. They've had their warning by missing out on doing so automatically.

Four of the last six teams finishing third in the Championship have gone up via the play-offs, and although Cardiff have shown they are experts at the one-off cup-tie situation, I think they'll struggle to better the Hammers over two legs. Allardyce's men have the best away record in the division - indeed, their performances on the road kept them in the shake-up when their home form failed them.

On the face of it, Cardiff's recent home record (unbeaten in six) looks sound - but that run includes just one win. In fact, Malky Mackay's side have won just one of their last eight at home, a sequence that includes a 2-0 defeat to West Ham back in March.

Five of the Bluebird's last six games in front of their own fans have produced two or less goals, and they are now entertaining the best away defence in the Championship. The Hammers shipped less than a goal a game in their 23 away fixtures, and they'll know that keeping it tight gives them a massive advantage in front of a partisan home crowd in the second leg.

Best bet: Back West Ham @ 2.74
Recommended Bet: Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.82

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As if being deducted ten points and thereby surrendering their SPL crown weren't punishment enough, debt-ridden Rangers now have a 12-month transfer ban to contend with. The SFA have also hit the club with a £160,000 fine for good measure.

Ally McCoist insists the transfer embargo could kill the club and Rangers are already planning to appeal the decision. But that won't aid their immediate plight, namely a trip to Celtic Park.

If ever an Old Firm derby were incidental, this is surely it. Celtic wrapped up the title a fortnight ago, while Rangers are 11 points clear of Motherwell in third. The fans, however, will ensure this is as fiercely contested as any that has gone before it.

On the pitch, Rangers are faring rather better of late, having won four league fixtures on the spin, including potentially tricky assignments at Hearts and Motherwell. As for Celtic, since losing 3-2 at Ibrox, they have won all three of their SPL fixtures, scoring 11 without reply. But they will have their work cut out to shut out Rangers, who have been prolific on their travels, netting 16 in their previous six league outings.

Elsewhere, Neil Lennon's men have won their previous ten league matches at Celtic Park, keeping seven clean sheets in the process. What's more, the Bhoys have won both of the last two league meetings with Rangers at home, without conceding.

Over/Under 2.5 goals

Each of Rangers' previous seven fixtures have seen in excess of 2.5 goals, four producing exactly three. As for Celtic, each of their last three fixtures in all competitions have contained three or more goals. What's more, two of the three Old Firm derbies this season saw five or more goals fly in.

Best Bet: Celtic to win @ 1.81
Other Recommended Bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.9

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When I went on holiday to Bilbao, it was hard to miss the influence of Athletic Club around the city. Almost every tapas bar and watering hole has at least one Athletic-related picture, be it a signed photo of the proprietor hugging a player rather too enthusiastically, or a depiction of players past or present in the heat of battle. The most prevalent image is in many ways the most striking - a barge containing the double-winning team of 1984, with joyous fans covering the banks of the River Nervion to praise their heroes.

Athletic haven't won a trophy since, but have a chance to reach the Europa League final. Their 2-1 first-leg defeat owed much to a stirring Sporting fightback. Athletic appeared to be in control after Jon Aurtenetxe put them in front, but in the closing stages Sporting scored twice to claim control of the tie. Spanish winger Diego Capel was outstanding for Sporting, and it was fitting that he scored a beautifully-struck winner.

I mentioned Athletic's trophy drought because this Europa League run has caught the city's imagination, and I think fervent home support can inspire Athletic in a tight match. Athletic are unbeaten at home in Europe this term, and have picked up notable wins against PSG and Manchester United. The away goal for Athletic means they will progress with a 1-0 victory, just as they did in the round-of-32 against Lokomotiv Moscow. Indeed, Athletic have won to nil in eleven of their home games this season. Sporting's away form in Europe this season is uninspiring, with just one win in seven matches, and they failed to score in three of those games.

I fancy Athletic to win the match and the tie, but 1.59 is too short to be of interest. More tempting is the 3.0 on offer for Athletic to Win to Nil.

Over/under 2.5 goals

Athletic's last two Europa League home games featured over 2.5 goals, but on both occasions the away side trailed after the first leg, and were caught by Athletic's speedy counter-attacks. Three of Athletic's preceding five European home games featured under 2.5 goals. Sporting will surely try to keep the game tight, and will be loath to commit too many men forward. I think the unders is handily overpriced at 2.3.

Athletic to make the final?

The San Mames is a cauldron of noise on big European nights, and given Sporting's poor away form, I fancy Athletic to sneak into the final. Back them To Qualify at 1.77.

Recommended Bet: Back Athletic to Win to Nil at 3.0

Best Bet: Back under 2.5 goals at 2.3

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Madrid have won 11 and lost just one of their last 13 Champions League games at Estadio Santiago Bernabeu
And Jose Mourinho's side have won the most games in this season's Champions League, recording nine victories in 11 fixtures. Of those nine successes, five were at the Bernabeu, and on each occasion Real won by an impressive margin of at least three goals. Meanwhile, if Bayern were hoping to hang on for a draw, they should perhaps think otherwise, seeing as only one of their last 30 games in this competition has ended all square.

Bayern have lost their last four Champions league fixtures at Estadio Santiago Bernabeu, including the 2010 final against Jose Mourinho's Inter Milan (0-2)
Real are unbeaten in 11 encounters in all competitions at home, nine of which they have won. And the La Liga leaders are an expansive outfit at the Bernabeu, scoring 38 times in those 11 fixtures, and winning by a margin of three or more goals on six occasions. It's a similar story in the Champions League, in which they share the mantle of the competition's most potent strike-force with Barcelona, having both plundered 33 goals. If backing the Spaniards to win by three at 7.2 is somewhat daring, they are seemingly capable of securing a two-goal margin at 4.8.

Mario Gomez has scored 12 goals in nine Champions League starts this term, but only one of his goals has come away from Allianz Arena
So while Gomez might appear a prolific marksman, he isn't to be relied upon away from home. Bayern Munich have won just two of five matches on their travels in this season's Champions League, and have failed to score in two of their previous three. What's more, the German outfit have failed to score in three of their last four visits to the Bernabeu.

Recommended Bets:
Back Real Madrid to qualify @ 1.71
Back Real Madrid to win by two @ 4.8
Back a Real Madrid clean sheet @ 2.66

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On each of the three occasions that Barca lost the first leg of a Champions League semi-final, the Catalans have exited the competition
Chelsea's 1-0 lead might look a slender advantage, but a clean sheet gives Roberto Di Matteo's side every chance of progressing, not least because the Blues will fancy themselves to score at the Nou Camp. For all their possession, Barcelona have managed just two shutouts in their last eight home matches in all competitions, and have conceded in all but one of their previous five fixtures in this competition. What's more goalkeeper Victor Valdes (52.9%) has the worst saves-to-shots ratio in this season's Champions League, with the exception of Borussia Dortmund's Roman Weidenfeller (40%).

Chelsea are the only side who have faced Barca more than four times in the Champions League who can boast a positive head-to-head record against the Catalans (W4, D4, L3)
It's surely no coincidence that Barcelona repeatedly struggle against the London club. The Blues are now unbeaten in their last six Champions League games against Barcelona, four of which have been draws. And the Spaniards have suffered more defeats in this competition to Chelsea than against any other side. Moreover, while Chelsea secured a creditable if unspectacular goalless draw at Arsenal last weekend, Barcelona fell to a dispiriting 2-1 reverse against Real Madrid.

Over these last six meetings, only once has each side managed to score more than a single goal in a game (2-2 at the Camp Nou in October 2006)
Five of the last six meetings of the sides have contained fewer than three goals, three of those seeing under 1.5 goals. Elsewhere, only three of Chelsea's previous 12 away fixtures in all competitions have produced in excess of two goals. As for Barcelona, Pep Guardiola's side have now failed to score in two of their last three clashes in the Champions League.

Recommended Bets:
Back Chelsea to qualify @ 3.0
Back the draw @ 7.0
Back under 2.5 goals @ 2.64

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We start with today's negative which comes in the 14:15 5f Maiden where we have seen Back In The Frame drift from an early 2.82 out to 3.4. A second place at Wolverhampton nine days ago makes her the pick of the runners already with form. However, while trainer Tom Dascombe usually does well with his two-year-olds, he is currently 0-12 with his juveniles this season.

There has been an interesting market move for Roger Charlton's newcomer Stir Trader in the 16:15 Maiden, moving from 7.8 in to 5.8. It appears that the form of the horses that have already run doesn't amount to much and with this stable enjoying a near 30% strike rate at this course we should see a good run today.

We finish with the 16:45 class 5 Handicap over 1 mile where there has been good support for Icy Blue moving from 24.0 in to 9.8. Richard Whitaker's charge was a winner twice last season, with both those wins obtained on Good to Soft ground, so today's conditions should suit. His run on heavy ground at Haydock in October, finishing half a length second with the winner in receipt of 10lbs, also makes for good reading. On the pick of his form, and with such market confidence, he must have a chance today.

Recommended Bets
Lay Back In The Frame @ 3.4 14:15 Pontefract
Back Stir Trader @ 5.8 16:15 Pontefract
Back Icy Blue @ 9.8 16:45 Pontefract

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