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For so much of the season, promotion to the Premier League looked like a combined Southampton and West Ham private members club.

Then Reading came along with a run that, in all honesty, would have been pretty unstoppable regardless of what happened at St Mary's and Upton Park. Yet there must be an element of head scratching going on down the East End of London as to how the Hammers have ended up in the play-offs and haven't gone up automatically.

Sam Allardyce's side were in the top two pretty much constantly from early October until mid-March, they have lost only eight games all season and they have what looks, to me at least, the strongest set of players in the division by some distance.

Only 11 home wins may have been a contributory factor, and certainly a run of seven games at the Boleyn without winning from early February to mid-April was probably the clincher in terms of them missing out on a top-two finish.

But they still ended the regular season a whopping 11 points clear of Cardiff, who they now meet in this first leg - and as things stand, I think the Hammers will go all the way and return to the Premier League. They've had their warning by missing out on doing so automatically.

Four of the last six teams finishing third in the Championship have gone up via the play-offs, and although Cardiff have shown they are experts at the one-off cup-tie situation, I think they'll struggle to better the Hammers over two legs. Allardyce's men have the best away record in the division - indeed, their performances on the road kept them in the shake-up when their home form failed them.

On the face of it, Cardiff's recent home record (unbeaten in six) looks sound - but that run includes just one win. In fact, Malky Mackay's side have won just one of their last eight at home, a sequence that includes a 2-0 defeat to West Ham back in March.

Five of the Bluebird's last six games in front of their own fans have produced two or less goals, and they are now entertaining the best away defence in the Championship. The Hammers shipped less than a goal a game in their 23 away fixtures, and they'll know that keeping it tight gives them a massive advantage in front of a partisan home crowd in the second leg.

Best bet: Back West Ham @ 2.74
Recommended Bet: Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.82

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