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It will take an almighty shock for it to happen but is it ever wise to bet against Manchester United? The Betfair Contrarian explains why he believes the Red Devils will be celebrating a 20th league title come Sunday tea time...

Shortly after ownership of the Premier League's top spot changed hands in March, I plunged two fingers in my ears as everyone yelled excitedly about Manchester United's impermeability to run-in nerves. Instead, I advised punters to shun instinct and lay them to finish first at 1.64, my ridiculed stance vindicated and trading position strengthened as United spectacularly surrendered an eight-point lead. The turnaround has seen the champions catapulted out to 8.6 to retain, a price which has inspired a change of heart: I anticipate one last title-race twist on the final weekend...

They trail by a thread

Odds of 8.6 are enormous given that Manchester United enter Sunday's games - in which they visit Sunderland and Manchester City host QPR - level on points with their neighbours. The consequence is that three of the nine possible combinations of results would culminate in the trophy being swiped from the Etihad Stadium and paraded around the Stadium of Light instead, with a fourth also having the potential to (both win, but United by an avalanche). Other top European leagues such as Serie A, Ligue 1 and the Eredivisie have seen actual point deficits overhauled on the season's finale over the last decade, so it would be risky to write off an even less visible gap as too steep.

QPR are nightmare opponents

Very few clubs in action on Sunday will rival Manchester City's desperation, rendering it all the more unfortunate that they have been paired with one of those. QPR's terrible away record is a recipe for complacency, and they have pinched points off of six other top-eight teams, while the side entering matchday 38 in 17th have lost only four times in the last 11 campaigns, winning on five of those instances. There also appears to be a touch of destiny about Mark Hughes - who drew 1-1 with Fulham on his last trip to his former employers - being responsible for successor Roberto Mancini's most painful moment, recalling a similar strange situation in 1995 in which Kenny Dalglish was almost derailed by Liverpool while at Blackburn.

Needing to win isn't enough

Another popular theory that Manchester United's recent collapse from 4-2 up against Everton has already contradicted is that when a top team require a victory to reach a specific target, they always find a way to deliver, however unimpressive. On five occasions, the Premier League title tussle has lasted into the final set of fixtures and only twice have both contenders won. The most famous fumble was the double dip suffered by Blackburn and Manchester United in 1994/95, in which leaders Rovers lost to invite a Red Devils recovery, only for the chasers to be held at West Ham. Sir Alex Ferguson won't tolerate a repeat of that shambolic stutter and his side have prevailed on the four final days since in which first place has been at stake.

An eight-goal advantage is not unbreachable

Another scenario that has understandably been dismissed but isn't implausible is that Manchester City overcome QPR yet are still shunted into second by a dramatic goal difference swing. If Mancini's men replicate the one-goal margin of success that they achieved at Loftus Road, Manchester United must win by nine. Unlikely, sure, though they are the sole club in Premier League history to have won that heavily before, have scored five or more three times on their travels this term and face a Sunderland side winless in seven and housing several sympathetic former players. Chelsea smashed eight past a barely interested Wigan to claim the silverware two years ago.

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