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When I went on holiday to Bilbao, it was hard to miss the influence of Athletic Club around the city. Almost every tapas bar and watering hole has at least one Athletic-related picture, be it a signed photo of the proprietor hugging a player rather too enthusiastically, or a depiction of players past or present in the heat of battle. The most prevalent image is in many ways the most striking - a barge containing the double-winning team of 1984, with joyous fans covering the banks of the River Nervion to praise their heroes.

Athletic haven't won a trophy since, but have a chance to reach the Europa League final. Their 2-1 first-leg defeat owed much to a stirring Sporting fightback. Athletic appeared to be in control after Jon Aurtenetxe put them in front, but in the closing stages Sporting scored twice to claim control of the tie. Spanish winger Diego Capel was outstanding for Sporting, and it was fitting that he scored a beautifully-struck winner.

I mentioned Athletic's trophy drought because this Europa League run has caught the city's imagination, and I think fervent home support can inspire Athletic in a tight match. Athletic are unbeaten at home in Europe this term, and have picked up notable wins against PSG and Manchester United. The away goal for Athletic means they will progress with a 1-0 victory, just as they did in the round-of-32 against Lokomotiv Moscow. Indeed, Athletic have won to nil in eleven of their home games this season. Sporting's away form in Europe this season is uninspiring, with just one win in seven matches, and they failed to score in three of those games.

I fancy Athletic to win the match and the tie, but 1.59 is too short to be of interest. More tempting is the 3.0 on offer for Athletic to Win to Nil.

Over/under 2.5 goals

Athletic's last two Europa League home games featured over 2.5 goals, but on both occasions the away side trailed after the first leg, and were caught by Athletic's speedy counter-attacks. Three of Athletic's preceding five European home games featured under 2.5 goals. Sporting will surely try to keep the game tight, and will be loath to commit too many men forward. I think the unders is handily overpriced at 2.3.

Athletic to make the final?

The San Mames is a cauldron of noise on big European nights, and given Sporting's poor away form, I fancy Athletic to sneak into the final. Back them To Qualify at 1.77.

Recommended Bet: Back Athletic to Win to Nil at 3.0

Best Bet: Back under 2.5 goals at 2.3

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