George Bailey's Poll Stats

And despite Rebecca wiping the floor with Matt tonight (imo) he remains well clear of the rest. It seems that he has a very solid bedrock of support that at the moment is impervious to his actual performance.

Hopefully he has lost the Arsenal vote.

Then why is he so solid in the polls pm? X Factor is a combination of a singing and personality contest. He remains very popular personality wise and his singing appears to be "good enough". I have still not had a cent on him so want him to come back to the pack.

Not that worried as my greens on rebecca and cher shoould mean I can trade ok if I time it right.

Don't think the superpimping last night by sven gali did them that much good. They are still in the pack of rebecca, them and Cher following in Matt's wake. Not much between th three on average across the polls.

Some polls favour the younger acts and I'm still trying to make sense of the official ITV figures which consistently seem to underscore Wagner. He is last on that one so far but together with the others makes me think he should be safe.

Mary won't be a million miles away from bottom three though the Irish vote seems to have rallied a bit from last week according to twitter. Can't identify a Scottish celtic vote though.


I have called this one about 20 hours earler than normal as in theory I think most people will have already voted. If I get time later will update.

Using a combo of telly mix, updates and itv one. Are there any others?

Only been using itv one for last week or so and still not comfortable with it.  Yes Paije concerns me as well as he has consistently punched above his weight in the polls.

In fact if I throw in the itv one he comes out as safe on average with katie, wagner and mary below him. Discount the itv poll and its katie then him bottom.

You pays your money etc

With the itv one there are a variet of things meausured e.g. thumbs up, thumbs down, facebook/twitter referrals.

To be honest I'm not as confident as I have been in previous weeks where I have been sure wagner, apije have been safe and have said so on here.

Will have more data after show tonight to do some serious number crunching on the itv poll. Stillpolls seem to be a decent indicator and I would say that going by my 2 favourite polls they confirm fll's bottom two.

haven't workedout who is voting for Paije; both yungsters and mums I think in equal measure. If he survives tonight then big respect to the lad as he will have got one big one over cowell and his poisonous henchman at the other end.

Plus I might get the chance to trade [;)]

george, how close are rebecca, one d and gypo in the polls please....

thanks gb, sorry didnt mean to use that pejorative term out loud...

yeah i'm fascinated by one direction, who i believe are the 2nd likeliest winners, and it is my opinion, yet to be proven obviously, that they will vote highest this week, which will make them real players with 4 weeks to go.

i await any further data with interest, keep up the good work fella

My pleasure and I hope they are of some use. Probably best considered alongside twitter,FB and youtube hits as another string to the bow. That said all those forums also probably more accurately capture the younger techie voters e.g. yugov poll had over 60s favouring Mary (not that I'm saying tha age group aren't also techies!).

A combination of the polls and my gut instnct make me think Cher is definitely still in the hunt and will be for a few weeks yet. Could be a real player if she ditches the (c)rap.

then you might be advised to try a top 3 bet with her, as there is pretty strong opinion that the top three is a formality.

Those who do not learn from the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them so let's learn.

As I said above:

"Probably best considered alongside twitter,FB and youtube hits as another string to the bow. That said all those forums also probably more accurately capture the younger techie voters e.g. yugov poll had over 60s favouring Mary"

And on fll's twitter thread I said that Aiden was getting mentioned by the twitterati as being in the bottom 2/3 which was bad news for him. Very bad as it turned out. And no I didn't back him tho my finger hovered over the confirm button at 32s.

These polls are useful but the trick is working out which votes aren't being captured e.g.:

1. Paije has consistently punched above his weight in polls, twitter etc. I said i think he had captured some mum's votes and this must be right.

2. Aiden of all of them was dependent upon the techie vote as I can't see which non tweeters would vote for him. Not older viewers as he can't sing. Ultimate emperoro's new clothes. Been there before with D Vickers and her youtube hits.

3. Good news all this for rebecca imo. She has class and the average viewer at home will see this. Its good she is doing so well with the young twitterers.

4. Katie like Aiden was all about the twitter generation vote. She polled badly and had no casual viewer vote to back her up.

I could go on but you get the drift.

Very good point Nick and one I didn't mention ie he was going after the same vote as the other techies e.g. cher, 1D and even Matt and Paije. This obviously split the vote so when his core vote wobbled he fell straight through the trap door.

Also many techies do multi vote for several different acts so there will be some transference. I'll leave it to fll to do the stats on all the "i've voted for aiden, cher and 1D"

Its frustrating as all the clues are there to nail this but coming up with the formula that takes accurate account of the various variables is the ultimate holy grail. I'll keep searching though!

Gut instinct and what people say at the water cooler and what the missus says as she wanders in and out of the room when it is on are also big factors.

polls ds

Middle england mums decide these contets Nick. The teen vote is useful but it gets swamped by the sheer quantity of the casual female voter. The trick is who will they vote for and why. My guesses:

1. Matt; they fancy him and he seems non threatening despite his lady killer reputation.

2. paije; they want to mother him.

3. Rebecca; she's beautiful and talented but not threatening to them as shedoesn't know how good she is. Plus ha confidence issues just like them.

They clearly won't vote for Aiden as he can't sing and they stick by the rules and vote in large measure on the ability to sing in a singing contest.

They won't vote for Wagner as they don't really do rebellion against cowell/irony (so good its bad). Its blokes and a few teens keeping him in hence he can't win.

Cher and 1D I need to think about.

"best performance"? Whats that crab?Official site?

youtube and facebook alone will make you poor. people still wondering how d vickers lost

When Rebecca wins tell me how many FB/youtube hits she had compared to a few of the others.

cher breaks you tube hits20 million now theres a stat

look were the money went this week o.d and cher

So why isn't she fav crab?

Nick I think you can overanalyse the vote transference thing. Ultimately people are individuals. Why would Irish vote transfer to 1D and not say Rebecca from Lpool? I don't think it will block transfer by the way but Mary does have a big Irish vote; that's if they can jump through the hoops needed to register a vote from there.

A useful tool is twitter advanced search e.g. type in Mary 50 miles from Dublin and see what comes up. Try same with Glasgow to show no block celtic vote. Liverpool love Beccy unsurprisingly.

All interesting stuff but just another piece in the jigsaw.

g.b because she hasnt peaked yet its not a straight line.  i think shes in joint 2nd place with aunt sally ..[;)]

She hasn't peaked yet and she's getting 20m hits...should be 1.001. 2/1 is value if beccy wins and 10s is value for Cher is she makes final and you can trade. It's a relative thing.

They are my biggest greens so happy to see both doing well...actually aiden was my joint biggest red with Matt so some good news tonight.

I had one problem g.b i ran out of money backing chair, at 14s average then greened up and went in again so things still good.. thing is im up to my limit and can see her back to something like 7s again so now have to wait and see as long as she starts singing again she will be in final 100% confident of that the thing is she is winning people round now so her price should hold hopefully, the layers are running scared now..