George Bailey's Poll Stats

Also agree he hasn't been leading poll every week. Comments by judges after his performances confirm this for me.  Maybe odds on are false odds?

After the show is different but no votes have been cast for the final yet. even a 80-20% deficit I feel can be turned over if things go ok on the night. Matt has been leading those polls for ages, I very much doubt he's topped the votes every week tho.

Ashley

You completely side stepped my question?

exit polls straight after the show are different but all those stats tell me if the voting would to take place to night matt would win. they can't predict what will happen on the night itself.

Ashley

But in an ideal situation would you rather see Rebecca leading the polls easily rather than Matt? YES or NO? You seem to sidestep the actual question I'm asking you?

The polls predicted what would happen on the night in IAC. If matt were 99% in the polls he'd be 1.01 and would win.

George

You can't deny though that you'd ideally see Rebecca 10 -15% ahead in the polls rather than Matt surely?

Of course Lou. 9% on telly mix now mind[;)]

But would I rather be 9% ahead and losing momentum or 9% behind with the wind in my sails?

I see you highlight the Tellymix poll George rather than the others?  Selective thinking?

Matt 11% ahead on updates. Tellymix been more accurate to date.

Fair enough George ................. you're a sly old fox!

the key point is that if you look at the average all avaiable polls ( DS, tellymix, survation etc )

Give or take a percentage points here and there they all point to the same result, with each contestant getting roughly somewhere between the figures below

MATT 40-45 %
REBECCA 25-30 %
One D 20-25 %
Cher 5-10 %

Exactly Bardo, which is why Matt is a worthy favourite, even at odds on.

I totally understand the importance of momentum, but a ten point advantage is a massive deficit to make up in one week.

to the t i ts on here polls DO NOT MATTER A FIDDLERS FCUK U DOPES

Dizzy

Yes that's what I'm saying.  Even is she is gaining a little in the polls it's a bit like saying instead of Matt being 3-0 in front she's got one back and now it's only 3-1.  I know which score my team's score would rather be in that analogy.

lou im putting up well over 2 for matt on here from friday on if u want it

of course you are topgun,of course you are, with your salary from sony....

nick never gamble with money u know u cant lose;i dont of course cos im in privileged position

nick i prob know u cos b4 i worked for sony i played tennis full time in the mid 80s

didnt win much like but did play for my county alot

momentum with becca it was looking like that after matt was poor on sat due to being ill,anyone else agree that will be reversed this weekend if matt is back on form?

no matt has annoyed sc with not playing his game and will be biggest lay of the year at the prices for those in the know

mach

Yes of course.  Matt really looked quite ill and still did not a bad job.  Hopefully back to full fitness this week.

topgun, whats your real name. my name is nick green. i was no.1 in north of england between 1983 and 1986 and U14 and U16 level. I was national quarter finalist twice, at the hard courts at the all england club in 1985 and eastbourne grass courts in 1984. highest national ranking was no.7, but won my county champs about 4 times.

what county were you from and i will tell you which national players from that county i was mates with...

i then went to coach for roger taylor in portugal before deciding tennis wasnt for me...

and how old are you now

topgun i have created a thread for you to answer so we dont contaminate gb's thread....

Nick,

In 1989 I wandered accidentally onto a tennis court when one of the players his a shot that hit me in the head and dropped into court in an unplayable position.

The next day I received a letter from the all England tennis association saying I was now officially ranked Number 8 in England.  [;)][;)][;)]

Disclaimer: The above post is a joke and in no way a serious attempt to undermine Nick's achievements!

like it hf

christ i know its not much of an achievement....i stopped because i didnt think i could make it, and then a few of my peers did go and make it - mark petchey and to a lesser extent danny sapsford and chris wilkinson.

v interested to hear of topgun's full time career.

You do yourself an injustice Nick, to be rated 7th best in the country at anything is a good achievement but at a highly skillful and athletic sport like tennis it is a great acievement.

You should be very proud mate!

cheers petal

right now i just want to be good at picking the x factor winner.....

GEORGE ITS INE OF MY FAV FILMS ,AND AS CLARENCE SAID ,EVERY TIME A BELL RINGS AN ANGEL GETS ITS WINGS,
I WOULD LIKE TO BE LIKED LIKE GEORGE WAS LIKED

All you can do Diddy is be as nice and decent as person as you can possibly be. If we all try to be part of the solution and not part of the problem then the world would be a nicer place to be.

Syruppy tosh over PLEASE tell me its not Rebecca and Robbie

OK Playmates here we go.  Stats first:

Telly mix votes since show started last night:

M 41%, R 33% 1D 26%

Same with updates:

M 45% R 30% 1D 24%

Pretty similar which is good.  The imponderable would be trying to measure the non twitterati vote but we now have plenty of clues re this:

You gov

M 42% R 26% 1D 7%

Survation:

M 53% R 32% 1D 15%

Mail online:

M 45% R 35% 1D 15%

Conclusion

Beccy had her chance but blew it. Matt to win comfortably. Big question is who is 2nd. Even on the twitterati votes beccy beats 1D.  Add in fact that in all the polls that factor in the older but still voting demographic she wipes the floor with them.

Bottom line is that I just don't see where 1D get the volume of votes needed to even get close to her which makes the 3/1+matt 1 beccy 2 forecast look like the bet of the year.  Or just lay 1D all night if you have the bank to do it..I don't

When is first one voted off tonight as obviously only variable now are the actual performances?

Good luck all.

Matt/Beccy wrong way round on mail online

cheers george , cant stop myself backing matt & matt/becky forecast

Yes it is addictive

I'll get it right in the end re mail poll its actually

R 41% M 35% 1D 17

Don't forget ICM gb2

Where's that GB I've excluded the mirror one as it allowed for multi voting..I checked!

I could have thrown in "likes" on ITV site which again has beccy ahead of 1D on their non duet videos at least.

Can't see which thread gb

Sq posted it this morning.

Another pro polling organisation came out heavily for Matt, with 1d lagging way behind Becca. Good enough for me

It all feels too good to be true

It was NOTW sponsored but of course you need to bloody pay for that site now

not forgetting the forum poll b4 final started.


winner votes

matt - 15 -50%
reb - 11 -37%
id - 4 - 13%
cher-0 -

icm poll in NOTW was:
matt - 46%
rebecca - 30%
1D - 15%
Cher - 9%

2020 people - done between 8th and 10th dec (before yesterdays show)

That won't be far off mug.

Who knows there may be another rhydian moment but its just mpossible to see that coming from anywhere now.  Viewers have even factored in that matt is actually sounding like an injured frog at the moment. 

I guess there is a chance that the millions of "tourists" who tune in tonight who haven't picked up on the laryngitis/man flu thing might just think matt is craap and vote accordingly. Certainly there are a fair few tweeters who think that.

Thanks Mikeeey. Assuming a broad demographic yet another confirmation that 1D ain't got the breadth of support they need to challenge.

With 17m viewers when Katie went there can't be too many tourists

Cheers for the ICM Mike

That Corinne Bailey Rae song and the ridiculous merry go round they had her on killed any chance she might have had imo. Biggest night of her life and it was the worst song she's sung of the live finals.

Agree TM.  Was gutted when she was confirmed as doing that dirge. I'd like to know if she cut her own throat by phoning Biffa at 4am to INSIST she did the CBR song.

Cowell really gave her every chance last night and she blew it in truly epic style.

At one point I thought she was going to ask for Xina's autograph.

And I forgot the most important poll of all...Bet Fair Forum!

M 24% R 22% 1D 17%

And going by some of the posts on here there are clearly lots and lots of 12 year olds so doesn't bode well for 1D

I think lines close about 8.20, first act to leave shortly after.

Thanks so that means they all sing the first song, one goes and then lines open again and last 2 both sing the winner's song before lines close and winner announced....or not

one would assume so

Once again good luck everyone - it's been a fun ride...

Let's hope we all make some cash after all this!

Dizzy

All the best.  If One D win I'm hammered.

Fingers cross Lou, but I think we'll be OK. [;)]

If 1D win I'll GET hammered [smiley:crazy]

I'll get it right in the end re mail poll its actually

R 41% M 35% 1D 17

Middle England pm [;)]

Looks like I ain't going to get mentioned in dispatches

But I'll still blow my own trumpet (oo er missus)

It's sterling work, GB. Personally I don't really take any notice of polls but I'm sure your work has been appreciated.

well done GB...quality stuff as always

wd GeorgeB - great effort

yes ditto thank you

Thanks Cider. I nailed it tonight at least and hope I steaied a few nerves!

Beccy had her chance but blew it. Matt to win comfortably. Big question is who is 2nd. Even on the twitterati votes beccy beats 1D.  Add in fact that in all the polls that factor in the older but still voting demographic she wipes the floor with them.

Bottom line is that I just don't see where 1D get the volume of votes needed to even get close to her which makes the 3/1+matt 1 beccy 2 forecast look like the bet of the year.  Or just lay 1D all night if you have the bank to do it..I don't Cry

When is first one voted off tonight as obviously only variable now are the actual performances?

Nice one GB2 - thank you for your excellent contribution throughout.  Much appreciated.

And hopefully everyone here has made much more money as a result!

Until next year...

Thanks guys really appreciate those comments. Try to be as generous with the effort/tknowledge as you guys...just wish I had your banks..could have retired tonight. Save up for next year

George Bailey

Well done with everything and a thoroughly decent chap too which is a big part of it with me.

All the best for Christmas mate


Lou x  (of Bailey and Loan!)

Its paid for my Christmas and that's all I wanted...thank you Clarence [;)]

Well done GB2
Great work.

Same time next year

Thank you Lou and merry christmas to you and yours...I won't wish you a prosperous one as you already did that yourself [;)]

Still think you did the right thing going levels on beccy. She could easily have done this over the past 2 nights...though the polls might tell a different story.

Thanks FLL it's been great learning from the masters on here but I have a long way to go to even get near to you guys but I definitely think just soaking up the wisdom on here has moved me up a gear...yes it's a date for next year

GB2 - WP mate and thanks for all your graft throughout

Cheers NX; definitely no regional vote for 1D [;)]

The Baileys slipping down well.

But I really ought to head to bed. The kids will be jumping on my head at exactly the same time as ever in the morning

Have a shower first GB...that sand gets everywhere

well done m8 -that forecast betting seemed to easy [:D]

Addictive...hope you filled your boots...just had few quid on in the HS when cash run out here but still happy...plus switched to Matt when the polls were telling my heart that my head had to have its day.

And the clue to 1D's demise was when Cher did well yesterday but still was booted out.  1D were simply next in that queue.

Good thing is that if same pattern is repeated next year the same regulars on here will fill their boots at the expense of the tourists who don't even bother to read these threads. Only 175 or so at the most tonight.

GB, as much chance of a regional vote for Maggie Thatcher here as 1D! Zip in the papers for them today.
The 3.5% between Cher & Mary a bitter one to swallow. Got it back with interest today, though [;)]
Have a nice Xmas and happy new year, mate!

i would love to know the percentage of the market traded by the regs on here compared to the outsiders (i still find it amazing more people dont read up).
hopefully it dont change

I'm always amazed how this info never seems to infiltrate the market.  It's great.  Like you're own little private club...  Especially when you've got info the quality that OTHH posts.

Yes, it was thanks to everyone on here that I held firm.  I did have some 1D jitters (along with Nick and some others I think), but swiftly corrected that when the market screamed value on the Matt-Rebecca forecasts late on.

A VERY profitable series - but mainly thanks to you guys backing up my opinions and pointing me in the right (not one) direction...

And to you NX...and looks like 1D didn't hoover up the wolverhampton...doncaster etc votes either

Good question mug. Someone on here posted that they propped up a quarter of the initial money or something.  I'd also love to know all the strategies the players use e.g. laying only, backing to lay etc etc.
I guess trading all the time means commission eats into any profit.

Hopefully one day I will be in a position to worry about such things

George

Some of the guys are far too sharp for me on here.  They 'buy' at this, 'sell' at that and seem all in to do well.  I'm a singer by trade and seem to have a very good knack of picking out the winner at the very start and I've done very well every year. That's my 'strategy' and I'm sticking with it1 I hope i can keep it up but if one of the great minds and me could get together we'd make some team!

totally agree dizzie - I was bricking it on the back of 1d - but kept laying, and at one time was starting to question my judgement as well as the forums.
I was getting daggers from the MRS as she kept saying 1d will win (even from the start of the series), but thankfully stuck with it.

well done again to the winners.

night & happy trading on scd & sports pers.[;)]

Don't mention SCD!  Think I've done my dough on that this year...

AP is the lay of the century for SPOTY though.  Like printing money!   But that's another subject, for another forum.

Best of luck mug!

Lou all the number crunching in the world should only really support "gut feeling" which should never be underestimated. When stats and feelings combine it's payday.

You will recall me weeks ago saying I just had a vision of Rebecca being crowned winner and it was oh so close.

Dizzy agree re AP.  I have posted a few of my thoughts on that thread which will ahve to serve for withdrawal symptoms now XF has finished

Still the countless hours I spend on here and number crunching can be put to productive use now

George

You've done well no doubt about it, you're shrewd and know your stuff.  Look forward to next year.

Moonlight Serenade!

Seeing as we're OT what would ye do with a couple of AP backs @ Evs Top 3 and at av 6.6 o/r?
Did them a long time back as thought they were good value. Surely he's a cert for top 3? The o/r I'm not so confident.
I haven't really given it much attention. Plenty of spare time now XF is over to read up...

NX I think the horse racing ramp wil come to nought (but clearly I could be wrong as we are talking thousands not millions of votes as per XF and the horsey set are loaded and can afford to multi vote).

I personally would definitely take some profit out of both.  Ennis looks a bet to lay after her VT to me.

Cheers GB2. Have  a lot of catching up to do on it. 190k odd won it for Giggsy last year iirc. Hope it goes well for you, mate

Great minds again!  30s for Ennis is crazy compared to some of the others on there...

I've been laying McCoy big time - let's hope I don't do all of my XF winnings in one go!

Cheers. That year clashed with XF i think so double that needed now..still small fry.

I don't think mccoy, taylor, daley or westwood will win so can green up around that position. Last 3 not to make top 3.

I should say that AP's a certainty for Top 3 though...  Just don't think he'll win.  The BBC simply won't devote enough airtime to what they consider to be a niche sport.  It's all in the VT edit, as GB2 says...

Yeah he should make top 3 but at evens easy to take profit and leave plenty in for a bet to nothing.

Amy is the bet

Yeah she's a real enigma and I missed the big odds. Still not sure. Certainly she has a "personality", will be on last i think with a good VT and olympics have a good record in this..but sliding down a hill with a tray on your aarse?...mmm...reminds me of Chevvy Chase in National Lampoons's Christmas Vacation

limpics is bound to be pushed, and Amy is a charmer. Obvious negative is the time lapsed but she has the best narrative imo.

Yeah pure Eddie the Eagle with a happy ending..might have another nibble now she's drifted a bit