X Factor 2010
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George Bailey's Poll Stats
George Bailey's Poll Stats
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Replies: 272
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Yup Henry. He;s been solid 14% ahead of her on tellymix for ages but now down to 8% which is significant. Even more so on updates poll where almost evens stevens now. Just done the 2 on twitter and nothing in it really which is good for her as twitter not her natural medium.
Looks like classic case of matt peaking too early. 1D better than both on twitter but ignore this. Polls not reflect it. Obviousl a long way to go but love now with Rebecca so all to play for on the night. Tea leaves still say Rebecca wins this [;)] |
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Tea leaves still say Rebecca wins this
Betting says Matt will .............easily. |
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Favs never get beat Lou?...very strange statement from a gambler.
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Oh of course but they win too, shouldn't forget that. Man Utd were fav's to beat Blackburn a couple of weeks ago and scraped home 7-1.
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Mmmm bit weak for you Lou you are better than that. What price Chelsea for the league now and what were they 3 weeks ago?
You levelled up on her and I think that was wise. I've topped up on her and now small red on matt; hey ho. I see Dannii is playing the "matt too ill to sing" bolllocks. Desperation I suspect. |
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Well for the first time in a while I think she's going to win and have been backing today.
It could be that Matt just had a bad week though or it could be that more people are starting to get Rebecca. Show Me Love, which was panned on here, was very well received. I'm waiting on one of the big polls to come though. |
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George
I'm level on Rebecca so obviously don't want her to win. I think Matt's a long way better and clear of this field. I'm sure he was very ill last weeek and it showed. Got through the songs ok but poor for his standard. A week's rest and I hope he'll come out fighting and just one of hisd 'knock em' dead' songs will see him comfortably home. Even IF your polls were accurate (the DS one has him on 46% Rebecca 31%!) he's still 9% clear on your poll which is a fair old lead you must agree. |
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Henry any polls appear can you post links on here so I can monitor them? Updates poll based on new votes have them very close. Momentum is everything now.
I still think she is fantastic whichever of her songs I play back. Pure class. Stacey like likeability (almsot)and no edge unlike matt who is bent up double trying to hide his nasty side. It always comes out in the end. GBP very astute. |
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Yes Lou 9% now but still a 5% drop since saturday. ot explainedby croaky voice...though him lying in bed with man flu and a lemsip was pretty naff.
Who knows maybe its just a blip in the polls but given its happened on the 2 most reliable ones then maybe not. As before you can never lose money betting against DS  |
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George
We'll have to agree to disagree how's that. I think she's a good price at almost 9/2 but why is she so high. Even ONE D are quite a bit shorter in the betting? |
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Matt ahead 11% on updates, 9% Telly mix and 16% DS. An average of 12% .......... that's a massive lead.
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She's no Stacey in the personality department george.
She lacks stage presence , the ability to perform to the camera and adds little in her interviews. which matter if the be all is winning this show. She is a nice girl though and has a future. |
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attitude
Yes I don't think she has much personality whatsoever. You can't not like her she seems lovely but too shy, a bit thick too. A mum to two kids as well. Not the ideal winner. |
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Lou with updates they carry the votes over. You need to go by new votes once the new poll starts at 9pm sunday.
Fortunately she's only up against matt in the personality stakes aa. |
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Rebecca's always polled well but Matt and 1D used to be ahead of her on youtube. This week she's equal with 1D and both are ahead of Matt.
itv.com likes/dislikes, youtube views for short version, likes/dislikes Matt You've Got the Love 1759/202, youtube 107,129 1230/112 Matt She's Always a Woman 1498/268, youtube 89,581 841/133 1D Chasing Cars 1926/338, youtube 145,543 1426/295 1D Only Girl in the World 1722/326, youtube 124,441 1330/274 Rebecca Show Me Love 2043/297, youtube 145,093 1599/124 Rebecca Amazing Grace 1712/340, youtube 122,540 983/165 |
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Henry
Two not up to scratch performances though for Matt with his illness so a bit unfair but point taken. |
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Matt ahead 11% on updates, 9% Telly mix and 16% DS. An average of 12% .......... that's a massive lead.
Momentum Lou, momentum [;)] Think outside of the box. The Matt will win box. |
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George
Still a 12% average all round though so that's a large lead surely? |
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True but she's not in the same position as the 2 other girl winners - leona and alexandra
Both strong favourites going into the final who Cowell still gave the "treatment" to make sure they got over the line. The reason i mentioned the negatives is that she needs a game changer imo to avoid finishing an honourable 2nd or 3rd. If she does what she does..it's not going to be enough. |
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"You can't not like her she seems lovely". Yup. Being shy won't lose her any votes with women as they support each other's insecurities. She's on a journey and she has put herself right in the running. All down to momentum and the final performances and for me she represents the value bet.
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aa
Yes we've seen her sing about a dozen or so songs so far, twice the pimp slot lately and she just hasn't 'wowed em' once. |
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George
Oh I sgree I think she's a nice price and Matt's biggest threat. The shyness/nice girl approach won't hurt her one bit no in fcat the opposite. She does seem very sweet. |
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"she's on a journey"
oh dear..that's surely a yellow,george  |
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Reaction of audience to her first song suggests otherwise. The xf itv likes figures are pretty good for tracking what viewers thought was the best performance. Show Me Love easily the best performance of the night.
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Henry
Momentum? So if you were 20 lengths behind and now your only 16 say? There's no point in me deliberately lying is there. The reason I keep saying I THINK Matt will win is that i do! I think he's in a different league to this lot. |
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I actually thought Matt was good, and I was doubly impressed by the fact he was ill. I can't really understand the public drift from him. Either they're taking their lead from what Cowell says (and Matt always politely agrees with him) or I'm not musically competent. Probably the latter alas.
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Henry
Where's the public drift though? He was about 4/5 before last week, still sings with a bad illness (and never sang bad too to be fair) which was very evident and drifts to about 5/6?? |
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Odds haven't caught up with polls yet Lou so fill your boots before they do.
aa yes normally a cliche I agree but this time apt I think. Eyes fixed to the floor at audition and up to her now to show how far she has come in final. Basicallyy she has put herself backk int he game bigstyle. 1D getting double pimp slot on saturday shows how far behind they are in the polls I suspect. Cowell "promised" they wouldmake final and they will..he never promised they would win [;)] |
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I didn't mean odds drift, it was a silly word for me to use. Another reason for the public lessoning of interest in him this week maybe because they've discovered Rebecca
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George
Won't be 'filling my boots' anymore. If it all goes wrong I cop a big enough boot up the behind as it is! I'll leave it at that now and hope .....and pray a bit! |
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Good point Henry. As with the joke acts like wagner and jedward there is that finely balanced tipping point when you just know its over. It can be a single tweet that captures the mood. Feels like that in reverse with Rebecca.
Just hope she hasn't peaked too early |
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cheers george - some interesting stuff here. keep sharing please!!
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Good work george
but i'm a bit worried you're over doing it. "Basically she has put herself back in the game" You do realise what is happening to you and who you sound like  |
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Good work george but i'm a bit worried you're over doing it. "Basically she has put herself back in the game" You do realise what is happening to you and who you sound like "I have to say" "That for me was pure genius" "That was world class" |
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not syco I accept I may be over doing it (stimulates debate if nothing else [;)]) but I'm putting it on here for the shrewdies to have the stats and do what they will with them. These may be rogue polls but just seems a big coincidence for 2 reliable polls to be both inaccurate at same time. |
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Matt backers are definitely running scared and with good reason. Rebecca's a very sincere girl. All that matters are the votes on the night. Alex only topped the votes 3 times! Something as little as an emotive VT could swing it. Matt comes across as a jumped up little posh boy - Rebecca a sincere lovely scouser. Rebecca is also a very calm and controlled performer. Matt has looked visibly stressed in recent weeks like it's all getting a bit much for him, maybe he's trying too hard? Or maybe like his backers he's living in FEAR. Regardless, Rebecca has momentum, underdog status and oh, she can sing a bit too...matt backers have every right to be living in a climate of FEAR.
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sincerity doesnt win competitions Ashley..
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Ashley
Can I as a Matt backer say that I'm not living in FEAR over Rebecca. I appreciate she MIGHT win but don't THINK she will. It's easy to highlight all her pro's ......... but leave out the cons and highlight Matt's cons ......... and leave out the pro's I think you'll agree. May I ask you Ashley and surmise you'll be honest. Are you fearful that Matt might just win this and very much looks the one they have to beat? |
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lou, I just want to quickly point out that only MUGGS point to betting prices as proof they are right. Successful punters challenge prices rather than use them as a source of comfort.
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bunny
Yes I challenged the price on Matt myself and backed him all in at over 4/1 and he's now 5/6! We all can't deny though that weight of money has driven his price down so much so once again hardly a bad indicator I think you would agree. I'm a very successful X Factor punter and I'm not looking too bad for this year either as we speak. |