X Factor 2010
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George Bailey's Poll Stats
George Bailey's Poll Stats
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Replies: 272
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danger of christina outsinging whoever she performs with? in fairness it never stopped the burkha.
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Hey, perhaps the all seeing eye that is Lay Pro will be able to tell us who is doing the duets in advance... [;)]
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Quick update. Normal service being returned to I'm afraid for Rebecca backers but not terminal hopefully.
11.30pm last night and tellymix had matt 8% ahead. Updates had matt 34%, Rebecca 32%. hence my post re momentum. Current position is that both polls which sometimes vary e.g. 1D do better on updates now have all 4 at basically the same: Matt 36%/37% Rebecca 26% 1D 22%/23% Cher 12%/16% Food for thought: 1. I think 1D should be doing better than Rebecca on internet polls so tells me she is ahead of them so not sure market is right re these two. 1D a lay for those who do that? 2. 10% lead for matt not necessarily enough but plenty for Rebecca to do to pull it back. 3. Cher's vote is all twitterati so she must be toast. 4. Plenty of people will be revoting once their favs are out. For who? Not sure when polls closed and reopened. Instinct says matt will get a lot but twitter suggests cher's could gravitate to Rebecca. Interesting times. |
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George
Thanks for posting that. I know your pro rebecca but honest with it which is nice to see. I like a few of the posters on here so don't tell the others but .................... "You're my Favourite"! |
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But I'm the only one you haven't blocked Lou so I'm fav by default
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Thanks GB2 - very useful stuff.
There's no doubt that Rebecca is closing the gap, but by how much remains to be seen. I'm pretty confident on the Matt - Rebecca - One D - Cher quadcast, but there are a few variables that remain to be thrown into the mix - particularly the final song choices, duets etc. With four in the final the real imponderable will be the vote transference. Some think that Cher's votes will go to 1D, some Rebecca, but it will inevitably make it tighter than the polls currently suggest. |
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I'm not a big fan of polls as I don't feel they reflect what can happen on the night and can't take into account these variables. If the lines were open now then fair enough but no votes will be cast until saturday night after the performances. That said, I'm happy with a 10% deficit to make up should that be the case - easily turned over. I'm hoping Rebecca gets the pimp slot (final song before phone lines open) as I think that's an advantage here going first doesn't matter that much now we're down to 4. I noticed becca went first in the semi, thought that would be the case no-one can have any arguments when she gets the pimp in the final now. Old trick that one ;)
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I'm not a big fan of polls as I don't feel they reflect what can happen on the night and can't take into account these variables. If the lines were open now then fair enough but no votes will be cast until saturday night after the performances. That said, I'm happy with a 10% deficit to make up should that be the case - easily turned over. I'm hoping Rebecca gets the pimp slot (final song before phone lines open) as I think that's an advantage here going first doesn't matter that much now we're down to 4. I noticed becca went first in the semi, thought that would be the case no-one can have any arguments when she gets the pimp in the final now. Old trick that one ;)
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I'm not a big fan of polls as I don't feel they reflect what can happen on the night and can't take into account these variables. If the lines were open now then fair enough but no votes will be cast until saturday night after the performances. That said, I'm happy with a 10% deficit to make up should that be the case - easily turned over. I'm hoping Rebecca gets the pimp slot (final song before phone lines open) as I think that's an advantage here going first doesn't matter that much now we're down to 4. I noticed becca went first in the semi, thought that would be the case no-one can have any arguments when she gets the pimp in the final now. Old trick that one ;)
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Ashley you are wrong re polls. True they are a snapshot as of now but after the show and before the result they are invaluable as you count the poll votes from that point so effectively in real time. FLL does same with twitter.
Anyone following both all series can't have lost this year. |
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After the show is different but no votes have been cast for the final yet. even a 80-20% deficit I feel can be turned over if things go ok on the night. Matt has been leading those polls for ages, I very much doubt he's topped the votes every week tho.
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Ashley
In an ideal world though would you rather Rebecca to be leading the polls by say 10 -15% rather than Matt? It reassures me as a Matt backer that he seems to be doing so well in all the polls. |
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Yes agree it can and will be all won and lost on the night. The polls this week are about identifying momentum and getting your book sorted before the final starts. Its just about getting the edge.
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Also agree he hasn't been leading poll every week. Comments by judges after his performances confirm this for me. Maybe odds on are false odds?
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After the show is different but no votes have been cast for the final yet. even a 80-20% deficit I feel can be turned over if things go ok on the night. Matt has been leading those polls for ages, I very much doubt he's topped the votes every week tho.
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Ashley
You completely side stepped my question? |
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exit polls straight after the show are different but all those stats tell me if the voting would to take place to night matt would win. they can't predict what will happen on the night itself.
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Ashley
But in an ideal situation would you rather see Rebecca leading the polls easily rather than Matt? YES or NO? You seem to sidestep the actual question I'm asking you? |
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The polls predicted what would happen on the night in IAC. If matt were 99% in the polls he'd be 1.01 and would win.
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George
You can't deny though that you'd ideally see Rebecca 10 -15% ahead in the polls rather than Matt surely? |
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Of course Lou. 9% on telly mix now mind[;)]
But would I rather be 9% ahead and losing momentum or 9% behind with the wind in my sails? |
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I see you highlight the Tellymix poll George rather than the others? Selective thinking?
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Matt 11% ahead on updates. Tellymix been more accurate to date.
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Fair enough George ................. you're a sly old fox!
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the key point is that if you look at the average all avaiable polls ( DS, tellymix, survation etc )
Give or take a percentage points here and there they all point to the same result, with each contestant getting roughly somewhere between the figures below MATT 40-45 % REBECCA 25-30 % One D 20-25 % Cher 5-10 % |
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Exactly Bardo, which is why Matt is a worthy favourite, even at odds on.
I totally understand the importance of momentum, but a ten point advantage is a massive deficit to make up in one week. |
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to the t i ts on here polls DO NOT MATTER A FIDDLERS FCUK U DOPES
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Dizzy
Yes that's what I'm saying. Even is she is gaining a little in the polls it's a bit like saying instead of Matt being 3-0 in front she's got one back and now it's only 3-1. I know which score my team's score would rather be in that analogy. |
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lou im putting up well over 2 for matt on here from friday on if u want it
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of course you are topgun,of course you are, with your salary from sony....
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nick never gamble with money u know u cant lose;i dont of course cos im in privileged position
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nick i prob know u cos b4 i worked for sony i played tennis full time in the mid 80s
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didnt win much like but did play for my county alot
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momentum with becca it was looking like that after matt was poor on sat due to being ill,anyone else agree that will be reversed this weekend if matt is back on form?
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no matt has annoyed sc with not playing his game and will be biggest lay of the year at the prices for those in the know
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mach
Yes of course. Matt really looked quite ill and still did not a bad job. Hopefully back to full fitness this week. |
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topgun, whats your real name. my name is nick green. i was no.1 in north of england between 1983 and 1986 and U14 and U16 level. I was national quarter finalist twice, at the hard courts at the all england club in 1985 and eastbourne grass courts in 1984. highest national ranking was no.7, but won my county champs about 4 times.
what county were you from and i will tell you which national players from that county i was mates with... i then went to coach for roger taylor in portugal before deciding tennis wasnt for me... |
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and how old are you now
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topgun i have created a thread for you to answer so we dont contaminate gb's thread....
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Nick,
In 1989 I wandered accidentally onto a tennis court when one of the players his a shot that hit me in the head and dropped into court in an unplayable position. The next day I received a letter from the all England tennis association saying I was now officially ranked Number 8 in England. [;)][;)][;)] |
