WillGreenwood

The last three England matches on Betting.Betfair I have picked the opposition twice and got it right, but this time I'm solidly behind Martin Johnson's boys for a confidence-boosting pre-World Cup win.

I know gamblers are not supposed to go on gut feeling, that we should use our heads, but I just sense England are due one here and am backing them to do so.

The home team are without injured pair Brian O'Driscoll and Seán O'Brien - they are their super stars, their rock stars - and if it was a World Cup Final on Saturday then they would be playing. But you do not risk losing your key men two weeks before the opening game of the big show.

That may make it sound like this is not a game of vital importance to both. But it is. Believe me, it is.

Confidence is key in this game and another loss is not on the agenda for either of these with the World Cup so close.

Both England and Ireland will have been stewing in their camps, full of frustration after recent defeats. The scoreline looked close but Ireland were pretty well thumped by France last week and we all know what happened to England in Cardiff. To be frank, there are question marks over this pair of northern hemisphere giants.

England don't want to go into their first World Cup game against Argentina coming off a loss because the Pumas will duff us up, they will sense any weakness and make it very tough. That defeat at the hands of the French was Ireland's third of the warm-up period.

Team-wise, both are very strong. From an English perspective, we have to assume this is the first team to play Argentina but that doesn't mean there isn't pressure on- there are a lot of guys playing for a first team place. Andrew Sheridan returns and he will have been in the gym working very hard for this. Louis Deacon adds ballast to the scrum.

You have to feel for Toby Flood. Jonny has the shirt and Toby will only get it back now by prising if from Wilko's dead grasp! A good game for Mike Tindall should ensure he makes the first team for the Argentina match.

It's been a long time since England defeated Ireland in Dublin but records are there to be broken. England could play the Irish in a World Cup semi - it's not inconceivable - and that would make a win at the Aviva priceless. England know about Australia, they need to know about Ireland now.

Back in 2003, we played France in our final warm-up game and smashed them. It was a massive confidence booster and psychologically we had such an advantage when we met in the semi-finals.

Jonny struck three drop goals in that game and I can see him kicking off this game in the same way. A drop goal at a massive 30.0 on Betfair's First Scoring Play market is the value bet of the year for me! Alongside an England win that will be my other bet of this vitally important final warm-up match.

Recommended Bets
Back England to win @ 2.26
Back Drop Goal in First Scoring Play market @ 30.0

PS - My horse (I say my horse, but I should point out that I own precisely one toe-nail of him) Usain Colt should run at Epsom on Monday. He's trained by Richard Hannon, who knows a thing or two about horses, unlike me. I will be having a few quid on regardless, of course.

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I was delighted by Italy's win over France but I would have been even more pleased if I'd backed the Azzurri at 16.0. I changed my mind 24 hours before!

The result demonstrated what I've known for a long time: Nick Mallet's team are a formidable proposition at the Stadio Flamini while France, only a year on from a Grand Slam, are in complete disarray.

There were so many pluses for Italy. Full-back Andrea Masi was inspired, the scrum were strong and Sergio Parisse put in a monumental performance at number eight. Despite the elation, they are still 3.9 outsiders for the match against Scotland at Murrayfield on Saturday and I think that's fair.

As we saw at Twickenham, Italy are a different team away from home and, with Scotland improving last week against England, I believe Andy Robinson's men can round off the campaign with a win.

I've said all along that Scotland boast some decent players. Captain Alastair Kellock is a tough old boy, Richie Gray has been outstanding and Max Evans took his try very well last Sunday. I've been criticised for calling him a 'poor man's Shane Williams' but I mean it as a compliment. Shane Williams is an outstanding talent; I'd love to be called a poor man's Mike Gibson.

I backed Italy for the wooden spoon at the outset and, because of the points margin between these two, I don't think that bet is in jeopardy. I believe Scotland will beat Italy to claim fifth place.

So what's wrong with the French? How can a team fall so dramatically from grace? I'm not sure Marc Lievremont has the answers but I doubt this will be his last game in charge - unless Les Bleus really capitulate, which is possible - as they only have two matches to play before the World Cup. He's made five changes for the match against Wales which might be counterproductive. If Lievremont wants to build France into a force in world rugby, he needs to allow his team to grow together.

The Welsh, on the other hand, have impressed me with their resilience. They may have been slightly fortunate to beat Ireland but they're a hardnosed bunch which stems, in part, from their controversial coach. I like Warren Gatland, just as I like Jose Mourinho as a football manager, because you've got to back yourself and there's nothing wrong with speaking out if it gets the desired results.

Ireland had enough chances to beat Wales, which suggests that they offer chances to opponents over the course of 80 minutes, but over all Wales have stood up well. Sam Warburton has an argument to be player of the tournament. I'm backing them at 3.9 to pull off an upset in Paris.

Will Greenwood's Round Five Treble
Back Ireland to beat England by under 12.5 points @ 3.2
Back Scotland to beat Italy by under 12.5 points @ 2.22
Back Wales to beat France @ 3.9

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At the start of the Six Nations I said that I believed England would go to Dublin on the final weekend in search of their first Grand Slam since 2003. That's exactly what's happened and we now have a mega Saturday of international rugby to bet on.

I recommended that Betfair customers take the 6.6 available on an England Grand Slam because I expected them to win in Cardiff and then triumph in their three home games. So it has proved. And now it's time to trade out of that Slam bet, lock in the profit and get ready for a spectacular day of rugby punting.

Sorry England fans - and I'm one of the biggest - but the maxim for this column's success has been that fans of the Red Rose must bet with their heads and not their hearts. We can't buck that trend now.

England are four from four, the facts don't lie, but they have not been commanding, in fact they have been on the back foot for large parts of their last two home games. The stuttering performance against Scotland was not down to psychological weakness. We shouldn't underestimate the Scots because they produced a stellar performance against the odds but the home side were poor and, at 19-9 in the second half, you could tell that the players were already looking ahead to Dublin.

Losing Mike Tindall is a massive blow for the team and a cruel personal blow for my old mate. He's struggled with injury throughout his career and now, having lead England to the brink of a Grand Slam, he's been ruled out with an ankle problem. I'm gutted for Mike and Johnno's men will miss his warrior spirit, his unbelievable defence. Good luck to Matt Banahan but I remember him being skinned on the outside against Samoa in the autumn and Ireland will undoutedly go after him as an inexperienced international 13.

England are slowly constructing an outstanding team but they still have weaknesses that could be exposed by high calibre teams. I have loved watching Tom Wood and James Haskell in the back row for England but the big point here, I feel, is the absence of an out and out seven like Ireland's David Wallace or Scotland's John Barclay who disrupted England's speed of ball and with it their tempo. The breakdown has been a major concern for England in this tournament.

The psychological hold they have over England is immense. Recent history sets strong precedents and you should never underestimate a team's ability to exploit a hex over their opponents at home.

England have made mistakes, against France and Scotland, but they managed to cover them up at Twickenham. In Dublin, they will be punished if they commit errors. I also feel that Ireland are due a big performance, a day when they manage to take the kind of chances that they failed to finish off against France and Wales.

This is a two to three point game which will be won and lost in the small details. It's going to be a titanic contest, the sort of day that has me yearning for yesteryear, wishing I could have one last crack at a game of this magnitude. It's going to be brutal in midfield. The forwards will batter each other while Toby Flood and Jonathan Sexton engage in a battle of wits and wills. The margins will be extremely tight and both players will take every opportunity to get points on the board from penalties and drop goals.

An England win would be an unbelievable result. It would eclipse anything Johnno has so far achieved as a coach. November internationals and summer tours are all very well but the Six Nations and the World Cup are what it's all about. That's why I'm desperate for England to win. In the end though, I feel they will fall short by a small margin.

Recommended bet: Back Ireland to win by under 12.5 points @ 3.2.

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I know what it takes to win in Dublin and I know what it's like to lose there too. We missed out on a Grand Slam across the Irish Sea in 2001 when the game was played in October because of the foot and mouth crisis that had wreaked havoc in the spring.

A squad decimated by the Lions tour to Australia that summer headed to Dublin for a well sign-posted ambush. We couldn't find the rhythm of the spring and Ireland climbed into us at every ruck, maul, tackle area. They never let us get our tempo game going and they stole the match. Peter Stringer's tackle on Dan Lugar was perhaps the greatest I ever saw while on the field of play.

We got our revenge two years later when we completed a Grand Slam in Dublin with a 42-6 win. I scored two that day but the strange thing is that, although the result makes it sound like a one-sided affair, at half-time the match could have gone either way. Jonny Wilkinson made 22 tackles, which tells you something about the kind of pressure we came under.

Many people believe England's toughest task will be stopping Brian O'Driscoll on Saturday. The mercurial centre is a tremendous talent but we were always successful at containing him. We stuck to our game, we did not over-mark him or double up because we had a flexible defensive system in place. We trusted each other, the most crucial component of any team wanting to win away from home. O'Driscoll has scored 24 international tries but few of them came against England during Clive Woodward's era.

I might not be backing England to win the Grand Slam but I have been pleased by the progress the team have made in the last couple of months. Chris Ashton stole the plaudits early on but, although the winger is nailed on to finish as top try scorer, Jason Leonard keeps reminding me that he only needs one to consign my record to the dustbin. Toby Flood has been excellent too and there have been some outstanding one off performances such as Dylan Hartley against France and Mark Cueto against Scotland.

Johnno has come of age as a coach too. As a player, his self-belief was phenomenal and he's always backed himself behind closed doors, but now he's starting to show that in public which bodes well for England's World Cup campaign.

At this point, England can be backed at 9.0 to win the big one in New Zealand this autumn. It's too early to say whether that's a fair price - the hosts remain deserved favourites at 1.98 - but England are on the up and, while backing Ireland may sound strange today, I think backing England to win the World Cup is an even better bet than my Grand Slam punt. Take the 9.0 on offer, trade out on Final day and watch an epic between New Zealand and England!

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Readers of this column know two things about me: I landed a 14/1 treble in round three and I have a lot of love for Italy. Here's where those two facts combine.

Italy are a massive 16.0 to beat France but they have performed admirably in their two games at home, causing problems for Ireland and Wales. I was gutted when Ronan O'Gara slotted that drop goal in round one to deny the Italian's a deserved victory. They possess excellent players and I've been impressed by Alberto Sgarbi as well as Sergio Parisse and Mirco Bergamasco. The latter pair play their club rugby in France so they know all about Saturday's opposition and will work hard to spread belief amongst the squad.

The French would need to slip-up in pursuit of a big win and everything would have to fall just right for the Italians.

But - and you knew there was a but coming - one of the golden rules of gambling is that in the event of a big win, you should not, repeat not, then go out and blow the winnings on a risky wager. I'd be delighted to see the look on the Italy players' faces when they finally win a big game. I hope that happens this Saturday but in the end the French will have too much and I have to back them to win a tight contest.

The match in Cardiff is probably the pick of the round four games. It should be a cracker as two sides heading in the right direction come face to face.

Both Wales and Ireland are at fascinating junctures, both within a gnat's whisker of being very good teams. The Welsh have shown glimpses of brilliance in their last two matches while the Irish are attempting to rediscover the fluidity that landed them the Grand Slam two years ago.

Ireland have named an unchanged side and I'm delighted to see Paul O'Connell getting back to his brilliant best. For Wales, the cavalry has arrived, with Jonathan Davies and Leigh Halfpenny set to start as James Hook moves to fly-half. Hook is a fantastic player but I actually prefer to see him in the centre. As a former number 12, I wouldn't fancy playing against him.

This one really is very close to call. That's reflected in the odds, with home advantage making Wales 1.94 favourites and Ireland at 2.12. If ever there was a chance of landing the draw 23.0 this could be it so you might consider getting a fiver on. Over all, I think the Millenium crowd will give Wales the extra advantage to get over the line, so I'm backing the home side to win by less than 12.5 points at 2.22.

Will Greenwood's Six Nations Treble:
Back England to beat Scotland by over 12.5 points @ 1.34.
Back France to beat Italy by under 12.5 points @ 2.52
Back Wales to beat Ireland by under 12.5 points @ 2.22

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If Scotland win at Twickenham this Sunday they will be the biggest party poopers in Six Nations history. England fans want to see their team set up a Grand Slam decider in Dublin next week and Johnno's men will be gutted if they blow their chances here.

The odds on an England Grand Slam narrowed to 1.63 after their round three win against France and teams all over the world now see England as a formidable force. The Southern Hemisphere sides are watching and they certainly don't want to see England going to the World Cup with a Slam under their belts.

I don't fancy Scotland's chances of getting anything against England. At 13.0, Betfair punters agree. Scotland improved in their narrow defeat to Ireland but they showed again that they struggle to play well for 80 minutes. And they haven't won at Twickenham since 1983.

If you had to write a textbook on how not to start a rugby match, this Scotland side would offer a perfect case study. They've conceded a try in the first ten minutes in seven of their last nine matches. That's astonishing and explains why 0-10 Minutes is 1.8 favourite in the 1st Try Odds market. Well worth a small wager based on those stats.

Before I get accused of being too negative about the Scots, I should say that there is plenty that I like about them. Andy Robinson is a terrific coach and he has unearthed some quality talent. Everybody knows how good Scotland's back row is but I also feel that, with his peerless kicking precision, Dan Parks is a seriously under-rated fly-half. They need to prove that they can perform consistently, rather than playing well for 40 minutes before folding.

England will win on Saturday and the only question is by how much. At times they were second best against France but the ability to play badly and prevail often defines great teams. Against Scotland, England's biggest obstacle to success is themselves, but I believe they can make the most of this Grand Slam opportunity.

England will win comfortably. The match takes place on Sunday so, with no break next week, there's only six days before that potential Slam decider in Dublin. For that reason, if the Red Rose establish an unassailable lead, I expect Johnno to make a slew of second half changes. That might disrupt continuity but I doubt it and I'm confident backing England to win by over 12.5 points at 1.34.

Recommended bets:
Back England to win by over 12.5 @ 1.34.
Back 0-10 Minutes @ 1.8 in 1st Try Odds.

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I admit that I was surprised by Wales' victory over Scotland - you know I was because I lost my bet - but that's the beauty of sport. I was mightily impressed by their defensive intensity and I believe Sam Warburton may be the best number seven in the Championship so far. Which is saying something when you consider that he's filling the shoes of Martyn Williams.

Italy were torn apart by a clinical England side and, as somebody with a lot of affection for the Italians, I hope they weren't traumatised by the experience. I don't think that's likely under Nick Mallet and back at the Stadio Flamino they will make things difficult for Warren Gatland's men.

I expect Italy to pile in from the start and make things difficult as they did against Ireland. Wales should take control of the game in the second half, making their possession pay between the 50th and 70th minutes. I'm backing them to win by less than 12.5 points at 2.4.

I was disappointed for Scotland and Andy Robinson but they only had themselves to blame for their defeat against the Welsh. They were absolutely terrible, no excuses, it was a lame performance and, while Wales were strong at times, Scotland pressed every self-destruct button available. They let themselves and their supporters down.

They need to up their game for a huge clash against Ireland but perhaps fans need to put things in perspective. Limited in playing numbers and professional teams, perhaps the wins should be enjoyed more than the losses mourned. I don't fancy their chances of beating Ireland. Put in a good performance, be brave against England and try and pick off the Italians and avoid the wooden spoon on the final weekend.

Ireland were beaten last time out too but they have enough about them to come back at Murrayfield and record their second win of the campaign. Back Ireland to win by -12.5 points at 2.4.

Recommended bets:
Back England to win by -12.5 points @ 2.46
Back Wales to win by -12.5 points @ 2.4
Back Ireland to win by -12 points @ 2.4

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Is England v France a Six Nations Championship decider? The truth is this: if France win then, with only a trip to Rome and the visit of Wales to come, they will probably have wrapped up the title. If England win, they're well on their way but they still have to go to Dublin on the final day for a match that could yet derail their Grand Slam dream.

This is England's biggest match for 12 months. Last year, in Paris, they put in a pivotal display in going down 12-10, there was proactivity on and off the field and the ground was laid for the victories over Australia and the subsequent resurgence which sees the Red Rose 1.5 favourites for Saturday's match. There was little shame in the result against a very strong French 15, especially when you bear in mind the old saying that the French never lose within the sound of their own church bells.

Johnno's men can learn from France on that score. I was part of an England team that didn't lose at Twickenham for five years and if you want to be one of the big dogs of world rugby you simply cannot afford to be beaten at home.

At Twickenham this week, I caught a glimpse inside the home dressing room I know so well. I remember where I hung my kit, where I listened to team talks, where I went through all my pre-match rituals. Hell, I even remember the toilet. These are the things that impress themselves on you when you make your home ground a fortress. The current England side understand that winning at Twickenham needs to become a habit and in their heads they will be 1.01 to win on Saturday.

Le Crunch can often turn into an arm wrestle. Toby Flood, my bet for top points scorer, who is yet to miss a kick, will have an enormous influence on this game. The scrum will once again be massive but England will be determined not to concede the type of penalties they gave away in Paris last time. Thierry Dusatoir has produced some sublime defensive performances from flanker and Dimitri Yachvili, scourge of England, is back at scrum-half.

So can Marc Livremont's men stop Chris Ashton? Rugby isn't like football, you can't send a man out to track a star player, press up close and stop him playing his game. The whole team need to organise themselves to stifle his creativity. That won't be easy because Ashton will roam across the backline and if he crosses the white wash on Saturday he can celebrate however he wants. I just hope his dive his technically sounder than it has been.

The important thing for England fans when having a bet is to follow their head not their heart. So far, all my England tips have come in and, just like the team, I intend to keep my perfect record going this weekend. I believe England can beat France and I expect a final score around 24-18.

Back England at 2.52 to win by a margin of less than 12.5 points and take a big step towards a first championship for eight years.

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I played in an England team that never lost to Les Bleus outside France. However, I also never managed to win across the Channel and I admit that I'm still irked by that. On the three occasions I played in Paris we always managed to go down by close margins.

Beating them at Twickenham was always sweet. In 2001, I crashed over early in a 48-19 victory with a try that was the result of a system that was near perfect. We had created so much space that I was practically able to walk in untouched. I actually saw the same piece of play being used by New Zealand in the Tri-Nations last year, which shows that the best rugby is timeless.

The game has changed enormously over the last two decades and no team demonstrates that better than France. Fifteen years ago their midfield was populated by slight, darting players who liked to mix up their angles, but now they're just huge. The French have got taller and bigger and all those clichés about Gallic flair have been consigned to history. Eight years ago they used to dismiss Ben Cohen, implying that he was too big to be a winger, lacking in finesse, but Yoann Huget on the right wing is a carbon copy of Cohen. The old French rugby purists must be turning in their graves.

Marc Lievremont has rung the changes for Saturday's match and Martin Johnson is also considering selection dilemmas. Clive Woodward was never afraid of making changes - he changed the side for the 2003 World Cup semi-final and then again for the final - but I don't think Lievremont knows his best team.

Clive proved that changes can be very effective. But you need to maintain a strong spine in your team. Once you have got that you can make alterations around the core and that can make a side more dynamic. So you need to be careful. The key to winning big tournaments is to have a team that can win with changes. Martin Johnson will be aiming to develop that side of England between now and the autumn.

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I went down to Cardiff on Friday night with four mates and the buzz in the city was amazing. Everybody understood the importance of the game and the atmosphere inside the Millennium Stadium was electric, so much so that I had to re-watch the match on Monday because my memories were a little hazy.

The efficiency of England's performance was deceptive in that it obscured just how difficult it is to win in Cardiff. This was a victory of great magnitude and that should be remembered. I'd probably give England seven-and-a-half out of ten for their performance but Martin Johnson will make sure that they don't get complacent.

Personally, I loved a bollocking after a good win because it kept my feet on the ground. England looked comfortable but Johnno will be furious with occasional moments of indiscipline. They gave away four penalties when they were under scant pressure and that must be addressed.

I was impressed by how well England did the basic things. The line-out functioned really well and, while the scrum wasn't quite as dominant as expected, it gave the team a strong platform. Mike Tindall was imperious at the restarts, Toby Flood kicked well from hand and floor and England controlled the game when they had the ball. Shontayne Hape was at fault for the Welsh try but, overall, England are strong in midfield. They have developed continuity and solidity from playing together for an extended run of games and Johnno's small steps team building is coming to fruition.

Calm and composure were required against the Welsh but this weekend, against Italy, England will take a different approach. I said last week that arrogance can be a good thing in a rugby player and, in the week leading up to games against the Italians, away from the forwards ears the backs would talk about how many tries we could score'

Those days are gone and England will be respectful of Italy, especially after they pushed Ireland so close in Rome last week. The Italians improve every season, they have a front five who can mix it with anyone in the world and their defence is well organised. England should limit goal-kicking opportunities and not allow the game to descend into an arm wrestle.

Now is the time for England to be brutal. They must use Saturday's match at Twickenham as an opportunity to show that they can destroy teams in the way that New Zealand do, in that way that Australia did to France in the autumn. With this in mind, there are two ways you can go with this weekend's bets.

Which England handicap line you opt for depends on whether you want to have a go with a big bet or play safe. I expect a home win by a considerable margin so I'm actually going to mix up my bets by choosing both. You should take everything you can on England with the handicap of 22.5 points. That will win you your stake for a bolder flutter on England -34.5 points at 3.6. I think there's a serious possibility that England will run riot at Twickenham!

Recommended bets:
Back England -22.5 points @ 2.06
Back England -34.5 points @ 3.6

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