WillGreenwood

I was delighted by Italy's win over France but I would have been even more pleased if I'd backed the Azzurri at 16.0. I changed my mind 24 hours before!

The result demonstrated what I've known for a long time: Nick Mallet's team are a formidable proposition at the Stadio Flamini while France, only a year on from a Grand Slam, are in complete disarray.

There were so many pluses for Italy. Full-back Andrea Masi was inspired, the scrum were strong and Sergio Parisse put in a monumental performance at number eight. Despite the elation, they are still 3.9 outsiders for the match against Scotland at Murrayfield on Saturday and I think that's fair.

As we saw at Twickenham, Italy are a different team away from home and, with Scotland improving last week against England, I believe Andy Robinson's men can round off the campaign with a win.

I've said all along that Scotland boast some decent players. Captain Alastair Kellock is a tough old boy, Richie Gray has been outstanding and Max Evans took his try very well last Sunday. I've been criticised for calling him a 'poor man's Shane Williams' but I mean it as a compliment. Shane Williams is an outstanding talent; I'd love to be called a poor man's Mike Gibson.

I backed Italy for the wooden spoon at the outset and, because of the points margin between these two, I don't think that bet is in jeopardy. I believe Scotland will beat Italy to claim fifth place.

So what's wrong with the French? How can a team fall so dramatically from grace? I'm not sure Marc Lievremont has the answers but I doubt this will be his last game in charge - unless Les Bleus really capitulate, which is possible - as they only have two matches to play before the World Cup. He's made five changes for the match against Wales which might be counterproductive. If Lievremont wants to build France into a force in world rugby, he needs to allow his team to grow together.

The Welsh, on the other hand, have impressed me with their resilience. They may have been slightly fortunate to beat Ireland but they're a hardnosed bunch which stems, in part, from their controversial coach. I like Warren Gatland, just as I like Jose Mourinho as a football manager, because you've got to back yourself and there's nothing wrong with speaking out if it gets the desired results.

Ireland had enough chances to beat Wales, which suggests that they offer chances to opponents over the course of 80 minutes, but over all Wales have stood up well. Sam Warburton has an argument to be player of the tournament. I'm backing them at 3.9 to pull off an upset in Paris.

Will Greenwood's Round Five Treble
Back Ireland to beat England by under 12.5 points @ 3.2
Back Scotland to beat Italy by under 12.5 points @ 2.22
Back Wales to beat France @ 3.9

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