WillGreenwood

Wales' World Cup performances get better and better so I'm not surprised that they are favourites to beat France to reach their first final. They were magnificent against Ireland and, with England out, I've bought a Welsh shirt and am getting right behind the Dragon.

There is strength throughout their ranks; Adam Jones is a rock, Gethin Jenkins tackles like a back-rower and runs like a centre; in midfield, Jonathan Davies and Jamie Roberts have been excellent. Warren Gatland deserves a lot of credit for the cohesion he has instilled in his team and his success in making them believe that they can beat the best.

Gatland faces a selection dilemma if Rhys Priestland fails to recover from his shoulder injury. The Scarlets fly-half has been excellent and those around him have thrived on his ingenuity. Few would have expected both Stephen Jones and James Hook to be kept out of the number ten shirt but Priestland has out-performed them. If he doesn't play against France, however, the experience of those two will be a great asset. Gatland has a big decision to make.

Despite beating England, the French remain very unpredictable. At the start of the tournament, I thought they might be capable of producing one brilliant performance in New Zealand. The truth, however, is that they beat a very poor England side and then, let's not forget, let them back in during the second half. They've already lost two games in the World Cup and no side has ever triumphed after losing more than one. That's why they're outsiders in the tournament winner market and on Saturday.

Where Les Bleus are strong is in the line-out. I said last week that Julien Bonnaire remains a legend and it was telling that England surrendered possession at two throws five metres from the French line. Marc Lievremont may focus on this area in the build-up to Saturday because it is one aspect of the game where France may have the edge.

Dimitri Yachvili's kicking was clinical in the quarter-final, he and Morgan Parra feed their inside three very efficiently, while Maxime Medard is capable of doing sublime things with the ball. However, if France start well, Wales will be more adept than England at absorbing pressure. They showed against Ireland how durable they can be and their combination of commitment and patience means they can change the game if they go behind.

There's always been the view that knockout World Cup rugby comes down to kicking. I don't expect that to be the case in this one. I anticipate lots of points - it's more likely to finish 28-24 than 9-6 - with Wales edging what is surely the biggest match in their history. Good luck to them.

Recommended Bet
3pts Back Wales @ 1.85
3pts Back Wales to win by -12.5 points @ 2.7

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Where did England go wrong? I haven't got an answer. I'm as stunned and gutted as everybody else at the Red Rose's World Cup capitulation.

There will be those who say the problems started four years ago but that's a discussion for another time. England lost last weekend's quarter-final between the fifth and 25th minutes. The basics that Martin Johnson urges players to get right were not there. England made fundamental errors and allowed themselves to be bullied out of the game.

From the moment Dimitri Yachvili kicked France into a 6-0 lead, England played back-foot rugby. France smashed them at the set pieces, an area where England are supposed to be strong. It was like they were trapped in a washing machine and didn't know how to halt the spin cycle. Vincent Clerc's opening try left the defence dizzy.

I kept waiting for England's World Cup campaign to take off but it never happened. England are not a great team but they have given enough passionate, intense performances - against Australia last November and Wales in February - to show that they can do better.

Games can pass teams by some times. It happened on a few occasions during my international career - against New Zealand and South Africa in 1997, losing to Ireland in Dublin in '01 - and it's surreal . Players come off the field and they're not tired because they haven't been able to get enough of a foothold in the game to expend their energy. A horrible, humbling experience.

Where do England go from here? We bounced back from our defeats to triumph in 2003 and that's one reason why I believe the RFU should stick with Jonno. Yes, he offered no answers to the questions that were asked of his team in New Zealand. But I've stood alongside the fella and I can tell you, he's an outstanding character. I expect that he will be forced to change his coaching staff and, as a man of great loyalty, he will find that very difficult and could resign on principle.

However, Jonno has been through everything in the last few weeks and will emerge as a better coach. Many World Cup-winning teams have a catastrophe or two behind them. Jonno's England must learn the tough lessons of this tournament and begin building towards 2015.

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New Zealand v France - Saturday 09:30 (ITV1)

Bettors who believe this is a second string French side are kidding themselves. Marc Lievremont is a coach of firm convictions. He axes those who do not play well and sticks with those who deliver: performance is his only criteria for selection.

Francois Trinh-Duc has been punished for a couple of indifferent displays but if Lievremont was resting key men, he would not have selected Morgan Parra. The fly-half/scrum-half, who will play at ten against New Zealand, is essential to French progress at the World Cup and, on a wet night in Auckland, his kicking could be vital. The battle between Parra and Dan Carter is an intriguing prospect but France have stealth amongst the forwards too. Lionel Nallet, aka "the caveman," is a formidable competitor who, along with number eight Louis Picamoles, will ensure a fraught contest up front.

The hosts come into this match as big favourites but slightly undercooked after comfortable victories over Tonga and Japan. The recent Tri-Nations campaign stands them in good stead, following a couple of defeats they are taking nothing for granted this time. Their trip to Christchuch, scene of the terrible earthquake, has reminded them of how much is at stake at this World Cup. Their country needs them to stand up and perform. I believe they will.

France may have the hoodoo over the All Blacks but, if the mercurial bleus are to produce a momentous performance and upset the hosts, it's more likely to be in the final than in this Pool game. Check the weather on the day but I think there's value in backing New Zealand to win by less than 12.5 points.

Recommended Bet
Back New Zealand to win by less than 12.5 @ 3.2


Scotland v Argentina - Sunday 08:30 (ITV1)

I want Scotland to win this and set up the greatest match between the Auld Enemies since 1991. That day, Gavin Hastings' sliced penalty denied the Scots a place in the World Cup final and they would love the opportunity to dent England's campaign twenty years on.

But can they beat Argentina and give themselves that chance against England next week? Sadly, I don't think so. Andy Robinson's team have produced little evidence so far to suggest they can overcome this intense Puma's side. There's a resilience about the way Felipe Contepomi and co. go about their rugby which would make me very reluctant to back them against almost any opposition.

I know Scotland beat them twice in their own back yard last summer but Argentina play with such passionate warrior spirit that I believe they will justify their favouritism on Sunday. There is little flamboyance about them - no triple cyclones, to use ice-skating terminology - but they work their way down the pitch yard by yard, wearing opponents down. Argentina can be grueling to play against.

I'd love Scotland to win this one but I must follow my head over my heart and back Argentina to win and go through to the quarter-finals as Pool B runners up. There, they are likely to go out to New Zealand.

Recommended Bet
3pts Back Argentina to win by less than 12.5 points @ 2.02

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England v Romania, Saturday 07:00 (ITV1)

I hoped England would kick-start their World Cup campaign with a big win against Georgia. They covered the winning margin and all four of our bets on the match came in - which is fantastic - but did we see the comprehensive display I wanted? Hmm. Sort of. Not really.

England made a great start, playing dynamic rugby as Shontayne Hape scored a lovely pair of first half tries. But after that the old frustrations crept in and indiscipline, I'm afraid, was the key issue again.

England are becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy in referees' eyes. They are gaining a reputation as a wayward side, officials are eagle-eyed for their indiscretions and that's a very dangerous position to be in. Merab Kvirikashvili missed three penalties but better sides will be less profligate and they will punish indiscipline. Jonno needs to sort it out now.

The team that has been selected to face Romania on Saturday is, by and large, England's first 15. Once his suspension has been served, Courtney Lawes will return at second row, and we could yet see further changes, but Jonno will believe that this line-up can represent England from here to the World Cup final.

I'm confident that England will smash Romania. They should take note of the way South Africa tore apart Namibia in their 87-0 win and prevent Romania from registering a single point. Defence needs to be rock solid and discipline must be impeccable but Romania offer very little threat and there's no reason why England shouldn't keep them out for 80 minutes. If they do concede it will only be down to a lack of concentration, as it was last weekend when Ben Youngs was at fault for Georgia's try.

At the other end, Chris Ashton and Mark Cueto should be in their element. When I backed England to score over 5.5 ties against Georgia, I was being conservative - I wanted nine and so did the players. They will be very disappointed if they don't demolish a weak Romanian side on Saturday. It's time for a 60 pointer, a big win to blow away the frustrations and set up a final Pool showdown against Scotland. I'm keeping the faith and backing England to cover the handicap.

Recommended Bets
3pts Back England -50.5 @ 1.72
1pt Back 0-10 minutes for the first try

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We can't expect England players to stay cooped up between matches. By being the best players in the country, they have earned the right to get out and explore the local culture of New Zealand, whether that means enjoying a few post-match drinks, bungee-jumping, rafting or whatever else. In Australia in 2003, Clive Woodward was happy for us to wind down between matches. Rugby players aren't monks, they need a release from the pressures of a World Cup and, as long as that doesn't affect their game, they should be trusted.

Last week, I said England might struggle to find their rhythm against a resilient Argentina. So I wasn't surprised to see them huff and puff their way through an uninspired opening performance. The important thing was to win and give themselves a good chance of going through to the next round as Pool B winners.

Indiscipline is less excusable. The referees announced pre-tournament that they would clamp down on certain offences and, if you were to write a text book about how not to begin a campaign, England's first-half performance against Argentina would warrant a chapter. This weekend, as England trade at an un-backable 1.02, the only way Georgia will get into the game is if penalties are conceded and players go to the sin-bin.

The Georgians are a big strong outfit, full of hard, enthusiastic runners who are desperate to make an impression in New Zealand. They were competitive for extended periods of their 15-6 defeat against Scotland but they present England with minimal threat.

Martin Johnson will ring the changes for this match and then select his first 15 for next week's match against Romania. By then, he will hope to have settled on a team that can represent England all the way through this tournament. I'm still backing them to reach the final at 5.1.

The number one, two, five and six shirts are all up for grabs so plenty of players have the impetus to come in and make an impact. After his try last Saturday, I believe Ben Youngs has made the scrum-half position his own. Jonny Wilkinson was criticised for missing penalties in Dunedin but, although Toby Flood is likely to get a start against Georgia, I expect Wilko to continue as England's World Cup fly-half and step up when the pressure is on.

England may lack consistency but they certainly don't want for bouncebackability. A poor performance is usually followed by a good one and I expect them to find momentum this Sunday. I'm backing a try in the first ten minutes and England to cover a 23.5 point handicap. I'm desperate to see a performance full of precision and pace which will exorcise the frustrations of last week. I believe the England players share my conviction. Their World Cup starts now.

Recommended Bets
1pt Back England -23.5 points
1pt Back Over 5.5 Tries in England Tries
3 pts Back Under 1.5 Tries in Georgia Tries
Back 0-10 minutes in First Try Odds

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Argentina v Romania

Argentina's reward for pushing England last weekend has been a spate of injuries. Felipe Contepomi is out of this one while Gonzalo Tiesi has been ruled out for the rest of the tournament. The Romanians hung in there against Scotland very close and will be ultra-competitive once again. Marius Tincu is an excellent leader and he will ensure that Romania do to Argentina what the Pumas did to England: keep the ball amongst the forwards and stop the flair players from expressing themselves. I anticipate a low-scoring game with Argentina edging it to set up a big showdown against Scotland for next Sunday.

South Africa v Fiji

Fijian lock Wame Lewaravu is like Michael Jordan - an athlete of awesome spring and no shortage of finesse. Against Bakkies Botha he's going to need to be at his best. I anticipate a high-scoring contest that really could end 48-40, smashing the maximum points line of 51.5. The weather is crucial in how many points the teams rack up and conditions can be a real leveler in the Southern Hemisphere, as we saw in Scotland v Georgia and Ireland v USA. The fact that the game takes place at night is significant too - something that, in making South Africa such clear favourites, the markets haven't sufficiently factored in. Fiji play fast and loose but South Africa have very strong, sharp players throughout their squad. Check the weather on the day before getting involved.

Wales v Samoa

I was really impressed by Wales against South Africa but they don't win this match they will not survive the Pool of Death. The World Cup is now a knockout tournament for them but they can beat Samao. Sam Warburton lead superbly last weekend, the scrum was sound, everybody was composed, they made the simple calls and stuck with winning formulas. However, they did have chances to win - James Hook could have kicked them to victory regardless of the disputed first half penalty. Wales knew what they had to in the second half and they blew it. I'm still backing them to win this game and go on to cause one of the big teams serious problems in the knockout stage.

Ireland v Australia

This promises to be a thrilling Pool decider. It will have serious ramifications for the rest of the tournament, in terms of who the sides face in the next round, so the stakes are very high. Digby Ioane's injury means that the Wallabies are without a key player but in James O'Connor they bring in an excellent replacement. Paul O'Connell is playing well for Ireland but James Horwill can match him in a titanic tussle at five. The Irish will run Australia close but I'm not convinced that Declan Kidney's men know how to beat strong opposition in the Southern Hemisphere.

France v Canada

Like England, the French come into their second match bidding to blow away their frustrations from week one. Marc Lievremont has publicly criticised his players, as is his habit, and he's hoping to get a positive response. Canada are the only team so far to cause an upset - overcoming Tonga - and they will provide stiff resistance if things go awry early on for Thierry Dusautoir and co. Over all, I think Lievremont will get the desired reaction.

Recommended Bets
3pts Back Argentina to beat Romania by -12.5 points
1pt Back Over 51.5 points in South Africa v Fiji
3pts Back Wales to beat Samoa by -12.5 points
3pts Back Australia to beat Ireland by -12.5 points
3pts Back France to beat Canada by +12.5

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To succeed at the World Cup, England must avoid New Zealand in the quarter-finals. The best way to do that is to win Pool B which makes victory against Argentina essential. The Pool draw has been kind to England, giving them the opportunity to - in theory - stay away from the hosts until the final. They must take it.

Nobody in the England camp is under any illusions about the importance of the opening match. They must not get off to the kind of terrible start they did in 2007. This World Cup will not be as forgiving and there will be little opportunity for redemption if England stumble early on.

A bright beginning is essential in this match too but will England manage it? They come into the game in good form but the first 20 minutes will tell us a lot about how this one will go. Argentina are dogged scrappers and street fighters, they're fearless, capable of mixing it with anyone. Their tackling is excellent.

Argentina's problem is always their lack of games and the fact that their players are scattered across Europe's clubs. They are excellent, however, at regaining continuity and momentum very quickly and I believe they will be a very different proposition to what they were in their warm-up matches. They are an ageing team, Felipe Contepmi may not be as strong as he was but full-back Martin Rodriguez is a special player and England will not want to get into a dogfight against Mario Ledesma and co.

But the Pumas do lack pace. They don't look like a side that can run 100 metres in a play whereas England have quick, ultra-mobile players such as Chris Ashton, and even Tom Croft and James Haskell, who is a splendid athlete, up front. Louis Deacon will make some big hits and be a massive presence at the rucks.

Precision and swift tempo will win the match for England. If you're a proud Red Rose fan who wants to put his money where his heart is, you'll take them to triumph by over 12.5 points. I'm not sure: we could see a tight first half and have to wait until around the hour mark for a try from either side. There could be nerves flying around the English ranks and they might take time to find their rhythm. If so, the usual naysayers will undoubtedly condemn them and lambast Johnno's selections. But I've heard it all before and I'm confident they will come good, probably by a margin of under 12.5. If you're looking for value, consider a bet on Argentina/England in the half-time/full-time.

Recommended Bets
1pt Back Argentina/England in the Half-time/Full-time market
3pts Back England to win by under 12.5 points @ 2.9
1pt Back 51-60 in the First Try market

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With the England team announced and their opening fixture approaching, the players will be desperate to get out there. There's always a degree of apprehension because of the importance of a good start at the World Cup but, overall, you want to get on with the job at this point.

Teams that win the World Cup usually have a failed campaign or two behind them and this England squad boasts a positive mix of experience and youth. There are players like Jonny Wilkinson and Mike Tindall who know what it's like to lift the Webb Ellis Trophy, players such as Andrew Sheridan and Nick Easter who lost the final four years ago, and there are the likes of Delon Armitage and Manu Tuilagi for whom this is a first campaign. For older players, this is a final shot at glory; for the youngsters, it's a chance to take world rugby by storm.

On the subject of Tuilagi - who will wear my old number 13 shirt - I believe that he is the right man to partner Tindall in the centre. This is the combination that England have been looking for and the pair will complement and alternate with each other in defence and attack.

Martin Johnson faced a big decision at fly-half and I think he's made the right call. Johnno has said that World Cup ruby is less about style, more about steel and substance. The England backline might well function with more incision and fluidity with Toby Flood at number ten but the World Cup is not the place for idealism. The intensity of the tournament does not allow for dream scenarios, perfect rugby. You have to take your chances and keep the scoreboard ticking over. In Jonny Wilkinson, England have the perfect player for that.

The squad is in good shape. I was impressed by England in their final warm-up game in Dublin. They exorcised the memory of their Six Nations defeat to Ireland and go into the World Cup on the verge of being a very strong team. They will need to get off to a good start - there can be no repeat of their early failings in South Africa - but if they do that there is no reason why they cannot go all the way to the final.

If they get there then they will be 80 minutes away from matching what we achieved in 2003. Of course, they will likely have New Zealand standing in their way, but we'll worry about that when we come to it.

Recommended Bets
3pts - Back England to reach the World Cup Final @ 5.0

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Pool A

Winning in Wellington in 2003 was one of the highlights of my career but, generally, New Zealand don't lose at home. That's one of the reasons they're 1.76 favourites to win the World Cup and 1.12 to win Group A. Those odds are justifiably short. The bettor's instinct is to look for value but I don't see any in this Pool. Yes, New Zealand have choked in the past but they win comprehensively early on. They've always had power and dynamism and now they're a highly intelligent team too. France 7.0 have a great performance in them, and they have upset the All Blacks in previous tournaments, but I expect them to finish second and save their heroics for later. For Tonga, Japan and Canada, playing against the hosts will be a great learning experience.

Pool B

One of the main reasons for teams to win their Pool is to avoid New Zealand in the quarters and semi-finals. England 1.36 have extra impetus as they don't wish to meet the hosts in the next round. Of course, if you want to win, you have to beat the best, but it's still better to meet them later rather than sooner. I'll look ahead to England's opener next week but I expect the Red Rose to win and emerge victorious from Pool B. After that, it's Argentina 6.8 or Scotland 5.8 - the game between them on September 25 will be pivotal and, although I do think Georgia could cause both teams problems, it will determine who goes through. At this stage, I'd back the Pumas.

Pool C

This Pool is all about Australia 1.25 and Ireland 4.7. I like the Aussies at the moment and Robbie Deans has assembled an exciting squad. David Pockock is a spectacular talent, who can match New Zealand's Richie McCaw, and new captain James Horwill could prove to be the player of the tournament. Ireland still have the hex on winning in the southern hemisphere. To beat Australia you need to destroy them up front and Ireland don't have the pack to do that. The Wallabies backline is full of wizardry and, given the chance, Digby Ioane and James O'Connor will run riot. I'm backing Australia to win Pool C with Ireland going through as runners-up.

Pool D

Wales 5.3 need to bring their body armour and hard hats if they are to emerge from the Group of Death. It's going be super tough for Warren Gatland's men but Sam Warburton is a class act, an excellent choice as captain, and they should have enough to get through. Just. Gatland must motivate his players to approach the World Cup as a knock-out tournament. In the past, they've been sloppy in the Pool stage and only woken up in the last eight. With Samao 16.0 desperate to progress, there's no time for a slow start and the match between the two sides on September 18 will be tight, decisive. South Africa 1.29 may have had a poor Tri-Nations but Peter de Villiers' squad boasts star names and his policy of resting them might yet pay off. They will go through as Pool winners.

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Top try scorer is a very complicated market to bet on at the Rugby World Cup. In 2003, I finished the tournament as joint top, having crossed the whitewash five times during England's victorious campaign, but I shared the honour with Josh Lewsey who scored the same amount of tries in the 113-11 Pool stage humbling of Uruguay.

That shows what a tricky market this can be and why it might pay to look down the market for a long odds candidate. The Pool stage is where the top try scorer is won and lost. That's where you get the big ten teams playing at odds on, beating smaller nations by huge margins. In the knockout stages, the tries dry up.

At 8.0, New Zealand's Cory Jane is a worthy market leader. He's strong, robust, prolific and, if the hosts are to win this World Cup, as the market expects them to at 1.76, it makes sense to back their brilliant winger to bag lots of points.

But it's not as simple as that. In 1995, South Africa won the World Cup, beating a New Zealand team that included Jonah Lomu at his peak. Marc Ellis, who didn't even feature in the knockout stage for the All Blacks, finished as top try scorer because he ran in six in a Pool win over Japan.

There are three key first round games to consider when weighing up this bet: New Zealand v Japan (again), England v Romania and Australia v Russia. In those games, Jane, Kurtley Beale (26.0), Zac Guildford (13.5), Digby Ioane (10.0), James O'Connor (13.0) and Chris Ashton (13.5) could all take this market by storm.

The games take place on September 16, 24 and October 1 respectively. The big names at the top of the market could be rested so it makes sense to wait to see who is selected before betting big money in the top try scorer market.

Australia's backs could make hay when they meet Italy on the opening weekend for a match in which Ioane could score a hatful. I'm backing England to go far in this tournament but I don't expect them to destroy teams early on in the way that New Zealand and Australia undoubtedly will. For a pre-tournament value bet, Kurtley Beale is my tip at 26.0. Those are good odds but be sure to return to the market once you know the teams for those key games.

Recommended Bet: 1pt Back Kurtley Beale @ 26.0.

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